Is it an uphill climb for Mittens?

[courseofhistory]

There are some big IF's in here and the first scenario of 75% going for Romney (undecideds) is highly unlikely.

Electoral College Scenarios (possible outcomes)

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When 75% of undecided voters swing towards Romney come election day, Romney wins the election with 311 electoral votes to Obama’s 227. This model would deliver Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire to Romney. I did not include the southern states or Missouri since my “trend” model also predicts Romney victories there.

But, a totally different electoral scenario develops when the number is dropped to 67% of undecided voters pulling the lever for Romney. In that case, the outcome is Obama with 322 electoral votes to Romney’s 216. In this scenario, Obama would not only keep Nevada, Colorado, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but he would also win Florida and Virginia. Romney would keep both Iowa and New Hampshire. Neither of those states are particularly rich in electoral votes, but Obama’s states in this scenario are the jewels of the battleground states and an exclamation point on his reelection.

The final scenario I looked at was what if the undecided voters broke for the challenger against an incumbent based on the most recent example in 2004 when John Kerry took on George W. Bush. According to CNN exit poll data, undecided voters who voted for Kerry, the challenger, did so at a rate of about 54%. That is considerably below the 75% postulated by Morris. In that case, the electoral outcome would come out as my original “trend analysis” predicts- Obama winning 290-248.

Obviously, this is based on polling data three months out from the general election and yes, that is the only “poll” that counts. It may very well turn out, although not likely, that all undecided voters will vote for Romney. In that case, then it would spell an unmitigated electoral disaster and repudiation of Barack Obama. Well, we can dream. Of course, we have not had any conventions yet nor have we had any debates. We do not even know who Mitt Romney’s running mate is yet. So, a lot can change between now and any point in the future. And speaking of Romney’s running mate, it cannot be overemphasized that his selection will not necessarily be the deciding factor with respect to any battleground state. Numerous studies have proven that the selection of a Vice Presidential running mate has no effect on swinging that selection’s home state into their camp. Hence, choosing a Rob Portman will likely have no effect on delivering Ohio to Romney, nor will McDonnell assure a victory in Virginia or Rubio a victory in Florida. That is why I am steadfast in my belief that Romney will look beyond that consideration and select Senator John Thune of South Dakota.

 

[Truthmatters]

that is why the republican party cheats in elections

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

But, a totally different electoral scenario develops when the number is dropped to 67% of undecided voters pulling the lever for Romney. In that case, the outcome is Obama with 322 electoral votes to Romney’s 216.

The big problem for Romney is even if he wins Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa, the president will still be re-elected with 275 EV’s.

 

[courseofhistory]

But, a totally different electoral scenario develops when the number is dropped to 67% of undecided voters pulling the lever for Romney. In that case, the outcome is Obama with 322 electoral votes to Romney’s 216.

The big problem for Romney is even if he wins Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa, the president will still be re-elected with 275 EV’s.

I agree!