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Iraq Index Shows Progress Being Made
The Brookings Institution released its latest Iraq Index this week. I would encourage you to read it all, but here are some notable items:
1. Per Capita GDP (USD) for 2005 is forecast to increase from the previous year to $1,051. In 2002 it was $802.
2. Increases in GDP for the next five years: 16.8, 13.6, 12.5, 7.8, and 7.2.
3. Actionable tips from Iraqis have increased every month this year. In January, 4,025 tips were received; February, 4,235; and March, 4,578.
4. On an index of political freedom for countries in the Middle East, Iraq now ranks fourth, just below Israel, Lebanon, and Morocco.
5. Crude oil production reached 2.14 million barrels a day (MBD) in April of this year. It had dropped to 0.3 MBD in May of 2003.
6. Revenues from oil export have only slightly increased from pre-war levels of $0.2 billion, to $0.62 billion in April.
7. Electrical output is almost at the pre-war level of 3,958 megawatts. April's production was 3,600 megawatts. In May of 2003, production was only 500 megawatts. The goal is to reach 6,000 megawatts.
8. The unemployment rate in June of 2003 was 50-60%, and in April of this year it had dropped to 25-40%.
9. The number of U.S. military wounded has declined significantly from a high of 1,397 in November 2004 to 430 in April of this year.
10. Iraqi military casualties were 201 in April of 2006, after peaking at 304 in July of 2005.
11. As of December 2005, countries other than the U.S., plus the World Bank and IMF, have pledged almost $14 billion in reconstruction aid to Iraq.
12. Significant progress has also been made towards the rule of law. In May 2003 there were no trained judges, but as of October 2005 there were 351.
13. As of January 2006, 64% of Iraqis polled said that the country was headed in the right direction.
14. Also as of January 2006, 77% said that removing Saddam Hussein was the right thing to do.
There is plenty to pleased about here, and much progress for the mainstream media and the left to ignore.
Issues Facing Troops
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"The willingness with which our young people are likely to serve in any war, no matter how justified, shall be directly proportional to how they perceive how the veterans of earlier wars were treated and appreciated by their nation."
George Washington
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Troop Shortage
Everyone from Senator McCain to Ambassador Bremer have admitted that there is a troop shortage in Iraq. Troop retention and recruitment are down, and the proposals made by politicians in Washington do not adequately address these issues. The next logical contingency is the draft.
What is the Draft?
Since 1973, America has relied on an all-volunteer military. But in 1980, President Jimmy Carter reinstated "Selective Service registration," the list maintained by the government of men ages 18 to 25 who are eligible for a draft. Young men, citizens or otherwise, must register with the Selective Service before their 18th birthday. If a draft is ever reinstated, these men will be eligible for mandatory military service.
Is the Military Stretched Thin?
Absolutely. Here are only some of the top officials, military experts, and government leaderswho have referred to the strain placed on the military by current operations in Iraq and Afghanistan:
General Richard A. Cody: General Cody, a top Pentagon official, told the House Armed Services Committee: "Are we stretched thin with our active and reserve component forces right now? Absolutely." (ABC News)
Ambassador J. Paul Bremer: Ambassador Bremer, who governed Iraq after the U.S. invasion, has admitted: "We never had enough troops on the ground." (Washington Post)
Senator John McCain (R-AZ):"We invaded Iraq with enough troops to topple the regime, but not enough to prevent looting, stabilize the country, or maintain security." (www.mccain.senate.gov)
U.S. Troops Overextended in Iraq: A Look at the Numbers
There's a lot of evidence that the military is having a hard time meeting the troop levels they need.
The Military Seeks Troops from New Sources
The military is relying on troops from non-traditional sources: the National Guard, the Reserves, the Individual Ready Reserves, forces from the National Training Center, troops from the Army's Delayed Entry program, and troops currently deployed in other theatres.
Currently over 40% of the troops being rotated into Iraq are National Guard members and Reservists. This reliance on Reservists hasn't been seen since World War II; of the 2 million people who served in Vietnam, only 9,000 were National Guardsmen. (PBS)
In addition to calling on the National Guard and Reserves, the U.S. military is pulling thousands of U.S. troops out of Korea in order to supplement US troop strength in Iraq. (The Washington Post: "U.S. Troops Moving From S. Korea to Iraq" www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34653-2004May17.html)
Forces from the National Training Center are also being sent to Iraq. (Associated Press) The decision to send key trainers into combat debilitates the long-term strength of the army.
The activation of the Individual Ready Reserveis another Band-Aid solution that is already reaching its limit. (military.com) In September, 2004, the Army Times reported that only 1 in 3 of the civilians called back to service through the IRR have actually shown up. (link)
Issues with Recruitment and Retention
There are also significant problems with recruitment and retention.
As early as 2003, the long and risky deployments in Iraq had begun to have an effect on the National Guard and Reserves. (The Christian Science Monitor) By July 2005, the Army National Guard had missed its recruiting goal for nine straight months. (The Associated Press) The Army missed its recruitment goals in February, March, April, and May -- each month by at least 25%. (CBS News) In June, the Army finally made its goal -- but only after dramatically lowering their goals.
Retention has been high among troops who have served in Iraq, which may have a positive effect on the Army in the short-term -- providing commanders on the ground with an experienced, hardened force. (San Diego Tribune) But retention alone will not resolve the troop shortage.
The Army has had to increase their efforts in order to reach enlistment goals, including greatly increasing cash bonuses for enlistees and hiring hundreds more recruiters. (USA Today) The Army has recently gone so far as to lower the standards for enlistees (The New York Times) and is even considering shortening the long combat tours that many believe are lowering interest in enlistment. (Reuters)
What about the Iraqi army and police force?
The United States has been working hard to train Iraqi security forces, but with limited results. See the Army Times article. Training Iraqi police and military recruits may become increasingly difficult, as recruits have been targeted by the insurgents. (The Washington Post)
How does this affect the military?
While the draft has become an issue of importance for the general public, it has already become a reality for many off-duty servicemen. Programs like Stop Loss, known as "the back-door draft," have been put into effect in order to salvage athinly-stretched army.
jillian said:Why isn't media reporting on that? Probably for the same reason media isn't reporting on this:
http://optruth.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=12&Itemid=66
jillian said:Why isn't media reporting on that? Probably for the same reason media isn't reporting on this:
http://optruth.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=12&Itemid=66
Kathianne said:Sorry to be picky, but three are no dates on the last site, which references the others.
From what I can read, the issues discussed have been covered thoroughly, as noted by WaPo and others. Can't get more MSM than that.
Ok...jillian said:Pulled that today. I'm not sure when Optruth posted it.
I'm not sure a simple mention is "covering" a story. Were the references on page one or in a two inch long column on page 14. Try comparing it to how many times we heard about Dick Cheney's hunting accident or Patrick Kennedy's accident or the Natalee Holloway investigation. Now THAT'S coverage.
Optruth is an intersting site in any event. These guys walk the walk and seem to tell it straight.
We Will Decisively Win in Iraq...in 2008
The Brookings Institute has the latest Iraq Progress Report, which All Things Conservative has summarized nicely. Let's look at the data a bit more closely to see where key inflection points may emerge, and where Iraq will be in the next few years.
The first and most important projection is that Iraq's GDP will grow 16.8% in 2006 and 13.6% in 2007, making it the fastest growing economy in the world, and many times faster than the world average of around 4%. This huge surge will snap Iraq out of its long misery (the US snapped out of the Great Depression in the same way with massive WW2-driven economic growth in 1942-45). Many Iraqis are set to see their financial situations improve dramatically, and as stated by PR master Bill Clinton, "It's the Economy, Stupid". Appeal to people's prosperity, and much else works itself out.
By 2010, Iraq will settle into a growth trend of about 7% a year, which is comparable to other developing countries in Asia - a trajectory that exudes the same optimism people have for, say, India or Malaysia due to such a growth rate. Plus, on the Index of Political Freedom, Iraq has the fourth highest score of the 20 countries in the region, and scores much higher than any of its neighboring countries, with Iran (16th), Saudi Arabia (18th), and Syria (19th) scoring much worse. How long will the citizens of those nations be quiet about not having the same freedoms as Iraqis? How long until Iraqi groups actually support democratic movements in neighboring countries?
As individual Iraqis attain more prosperity, they have more of a vested interest in the stability and health of the socioeconomic system they live in, and simply have more things to enjoy in life. More non-extremists will contribute towards reporting and fighting the destabilizing extremists in their midst. There is a strong case to be made that as the prosperity of a society rises, its tolerance for chaotic violence drops greatly, and once nations cross certain thresholds of freedom and prosperity, they almost never engage in wars with other nations of similar caliber.
On the metric of violence in Iraq, it appears that about 80% of Iraq has a murder rate no higher than in the roughest neighborhoods in Chicago, Los Angeles, or Miami. This is worthy of being classified as 'violent criminal activity' rather than 'civil war'. The remaining 20% of Iraq has a higher rate of violence, but no higher than it was two years ago. Note that life expectancy in Iraq has actually risen.
Lastly, it appears that 64% of Iraqis believe that Iraq is going in the right direction, and 77% are still glad that Saddam was removed. If one excludes Sunnis from the polls, the figures above rise to 83% and 96% respectively. Given that Shiites and Kurds are the ones Saddam had killed millions of, these high approval numbers are a surprise only to anti-American fanatics, who the Iraqis are obviously not listening to. This shows that Iraqis have learned that a section of the Western public is rooting for them to fail, and that group is to be ignored. It is only a matter of time until some articulate Iraqi blogger rises up and attacks the anti-American crowd's secret desire for the failure of Iraq, and receives massive visibility for doing so. Now that will be fun.
So why will victory take all the way until 2008 if things are going so well? Because victory cannot be declared until their is a perception of victory. Part of this is President Bush's fault. If he did a better job of advertising exactly the successes highlighted by the Brookings Inst. and repeated them often, this would uplift American morale, British morale, Iraqi morale, etc., and we would already have created the perception of victory in the world. Instead, the thresholds of violence prevention, economic prosperity, and functioning government now have been set higher, and these will only be reached in 2008.
In other words, Iraq can't just be as safe as Germany was by 1949, it has to become safe enough for American tourists to go for vacation in decent numbers (just as they currently go to Israel, Tanzania, or Thailand). That is a very high bar to attain, but unfortunately one we have to meet in this political climate. Only then will the fifth column no longer be able to deceive the fashion sheep that the war is a failure, and a broad perception of victory can emerge. In total, it will have taken 5 years (2003-08) and 3000 US troops lost to hostile fire, but the majority of Americans (and Iraqis) will agree that we have won.
I'll post more analysis on other data and trendlines later, but suffice it to say, all roads converge on 2008. Be patient, we are two-thirds of the way there.
