Iranian Information 2

[Nik]

A few requests, please.

1) Mods. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE leave this in current events where more eyes can see this. This is a very important topic and the cable news are doing a horrendous job covering it and so most Americans are getting no information about whats actually happening. Please leave it here.

2) Please don't debate the merits of invading, not invading, speeches, not making speeches, Obama, the Mullahs, whatever. There are multiple threads which have arguments about Iran in them, feel free to take it there.

And a caveat:

I am posting up to the minute (when I can) updates about whats going on. This is going to include information from a variety of sources. They are NOT all going to be accurate. One video of beatings that was spread across the internet yesterday ended up being from 2 years ago. Another rumor was that the BBC had gone green in support of Mousavi. The second rumor spread far and wide despite the fact that standing back and thinking about it for a moment makes one realize its probably not true. The BBC wouldn't support one organization over another like that. That being said, I will try to post things that are verified, but some things will fall through the cracks. If you don't think its real or it seems fake, feel free to point that out but please explain WHY you think its fake.

For anyone interested in actually doing something, there are things you can do especially if you are tech savvy. Also, please please please do NOT post any twitter names of Iranians who are spreading information.

 

[Nik]

Reports of Iranian police wearing green scarves. A very, very good sign for the protestors.

 

[Nik]

Although foreign journalists have been banned from Iran, some have stayed. Robert Fisk witnessed Iranian security forces protecting Mousavi protestors from Ahmadinejad supporters.

Extraordinary scenes: Robert Fisk in Iran - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

'The authorities are losing control of what's happening on the streets and that's very dangerous and damaging to them' (Welcome to Flickr - Photo Sharing Shahram Sharif)

Audio: The Independent's Middle East correspondent is defying Iran's media ban. (ABC News) The long-standing Middle East correspondent for The Independent, Robert Fisk, is defying the government crackdown on foreign media reporting in Iran.

As he explains, he has been travelling around the streets of Tehran all day and most of the night and things are far from quiet:

I've just been witnessing a confrontation, in dusk and into the night, between about 15,000 supporters of Ahmadinejad - supposedly the president of Iran - who are desperate to down the supporters of Mr Mousavi, who thinks he should be the president of Iran.

There were about 10,000 Mousavi men and women on the streets, with approximately 500 Iranian special forces, trying to keep them apart.

It was interesting that the special forces - who normally take the side of Ahmadinejad's Basij militia - were there with clubs and sticks in their camouflage trousers and their purity white shirts and on this occasion the Iranian military kept them away from Mousavi's men and women.

In fact at one point, Mousavi's supporters were shouting 'thank you, thank you' to the soldiers.

One woman went up to the special forces men, who normally are very brutal with Mr Mousavi's supporters, and said 'can you protect us from the Basij?' He said 'with God's help'.

It was quite extraordinary because it looked as if the military authorities in Tehran have either taken a decision not to go on supporting the very brutal militia - which is always associated with the presidency here - or individual soldiers have made up their own mind that they're tired of being associated with the kind of brutality that left seven dead yesterday - buried, by the way secretly by the police - and indeed the seven or eight students who were killed on the university campus 24 hours earlier.

Quite a lot of policeman are beginning to smile towards the demonstrators of Mr Mousavi, who are insisting there must be a new election because Mr Ahmadinejad wasn't really elected. Quite an extraordinary scene.

There were a lot of stones thrown and quite a lot of bitter fighting, hand-to-hand but at the end of the day the special forces did keep them apart.

I haven't ever seen the Iranian security authorities behaving fairly before and it's quite impressive.


Protests

Certainly the authorities were very struck by the enormous number of people who turned out for Sunday's march ... from the Square of Revolution to the Square of Freedom.

I walked alongside that march the whole way and was stunned to find one million people at the end, it must have been one million at least.

There were seven killed after that instant alone so we're having a lot of deaths, much more than we realise, in fact some people say there are more deaths than have been recorded.

There was 100 metres of no man's land between these thousands of people and I actually walked up and listened to a Basij guy urging his people on to attack the forces of the opposition, saying 'we fought and defended our country in the Iran-Iraq war and now we have to defend it again and we have to move forward'. You could actually just walk a few metres and talk to Mousavi's people.

Some of them came down and tried to embrace the Basij and indeed the leaders who support the man who indeed thinks he is the president. One man, in the Muslim tradition, tried to kiss him on both cheeks and the Basij man moved back irritably and angry, he didn't want to be touched by this man.

There was a great deal of anger on the part of Ahmadinejad's supporters.


Safe to report

No-one's told me not to drive around so I go and see wounded people and go and watch these confrontations and no-one seems to bother me.

I rather think an awful lot of journalists take it too seriously. If you get in a car and go out and see things, no-one's going to stop you, frankly.

I went to the earlier demonstration in the centre of the city, which was solely by Ahmadinejad's people, immensely boring, although I did notice one or two points where they were shouting 'death to the traitor'. They meant Mousavi.

You've got to realise that what's happening at the moment is that the actual authorities are losing control of what's happening on the streets and that's very dangerous and damaging to them.

It's interesting that the actual government newspapers reported at one point that Sunday's march was not provocative by the marchers. They carried a very powerful statement by the Chancellor of the Tehran University, condemning the police and Basij, who broke into university dormitories on Sunday night and killed seven students.

They've even carried reports of the seven dead after the march on Sunday ... almost as if, not to compromise but they're trying to get a little bit closer to the other side.


Election result

My suspicion is that [Ahmadinejad] might have actually won the election but more like 52 or 53 per cent. It's possible that Mousavi got closer to 38 per cent.

But I think the Islamic republic's regime here wanted to humiliate the opponent and so fiddle the figures, even if Ahmadinejad had won.

The problem with that is they're now going to claim they're going to need a recount. If the recount is to actually give Mousavi the presidency, someone is going to have to pay the price for such an extraordinary fraud of claiming Ahmadinejad won 30, 40, 50 per cent more than he should have done.

You've got to remember as well, on the election night, if the count was correct it meant that they would have had to have counted five million votes in two hours.


Next few days

Someone, presumably the supreme leader, who is constitutionally the leader of all Iran and the clerical leader, Ayatollah Khamanei, he's going to have to work out a way of stopping these constant street confrontations.

We've got another great demonstration by the opposition tomorrow evening in the centre of the city. I suspect what they're going to have to do is think whether they can have a system where they reintroduce a prime ministership, so the president has someone underneath him.

Maybe we'd have President Ahmadinejad and a Prime Minister Mousavi or maybe a joint presidency.

All this is what people talk about but it means changing the constitution, it means having a referendum. They didn't believe that the opposition could be so strong and would keep on going.

[The protest] is absolutely not against the Islamic republic or the Islamic revolution.

It's clearly an Islamic protest against specifically the personality, the manner, the language of Ahmadinejad. They absolutely despise him but they do not hate or dislike the Islamic republic that they live in.

Based on an interview with Radio National's Fran Kelly

.

 

[Nik]

The MSM is finally getting in some good writing on Iran. A few days late but here they are, finally.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/17/opinion/17pletka.html?_r=2

JUST after Iran’s rigged elections last week, with hundreds of thousands of protesters taking to the streets, it looked as if a new revolution was in the offing. Five days later, the uprising is little more than a symbolic protest, crushed by the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Meanwhile, the real revolution has gone unnoticed: the guard has effected a silent coup d’état.

The seeds of this coup were planted four years ago with the election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. And while he has since disappointed his public, failing to deliver on promised economic and political reforms, his allies now control the country. In the most dramatic turnabout since the 1979 revolution, Iran has evolved from theocratic state to military dictatorship.

Disenchantment with clerical rule has been growing for years. To the urban youths who make up Iran’s most active political class, the mullahs represent the crude rigidity of Islamic law. To the rural poor, they epitomize the corruption that has meant unbuilt schools, unpaved roads and unfulfilled promises of development.

This hostility overflowed during the 2005 presidential race, with the defeat of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a cleric widely considered corrupt, by Mr. Ahmadinejad, a former officer in the Revolutionary Guards.

In Mr. Ahmadinejad, the public saw a man who repudiated the profligacy of the clerical class, a man who was ascetic, humble and devout. And he capitalized on that image to consolidate power and to promote his brothers in arms. Fourteen of the 21 cabinet ministers he has appointed are former members of the guards or its associated paramilitary, the Basij. Several, including Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, are veterans of notorious units thought to have supported terrorist operations in the 1980s.

This creeping militarization has not been restricted to the central government: provincial governors, press commissars, film directors, intelligence officers and business leaders are increasingly former members of the guard. The elite force controls much of the economy either directly — the Basij has rights to oil extraction — or through proxy companies like Khatam al Anbiya, which dominates construction throughout Iran.

Technically, the pinnacle of power in Iran remains Ayatollah Khamenei, along with the 12-member Guardian Council. Yet he has proved eager to fall in with the president’s overthrow of the clerics. Indeed, Western intelligence services suspect Ayatollah Khamenei approved the rigging of the second round of the 2005 presidential election to throw decisive votes to Mr. Ahmadinejad. And this time around, the supreme leader made clear his preference with coded references like his exhortation to vote for “a man of the people, sincere, with a simple lifestyle.”

Why would he deliberately undercut his own clerical class? Survival. Far from fretting about an impending attack from Israel or America, guard leaders have been warning the ayatollah that the most formidable threat to the Islamic Republic is a “soft regime change policy” involving the use of “orange revolutions” (as the hard-line Iranian newspaper Kayhan recently editorialized).

Encircled by American forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, besieged from within by disgruntled citizens, the supreme leader has turned to a bellicose strongman to preserve the system that elevated him. Indeed, Ayatollah Khamenei — who was scorned as a religious lightweight by many more established mullahs when he was chosen for the top post in 1989 — has repeatedly shown himself willing to undercut the “Islamic” in Islamic revolution. In doing so, he has painted himself into a corner — a permanent alliance with Mr. Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guards. And this fraudulent election will only push them closer together.

Many have been struck by the crudeness of the recent vote rigging, with reformist candidates losing even their hometowns. The unusually speedy certification of the election and Ayatollah Khamenei’s quick blessing — “a divine miracle” — only served to underscore an obvious sham.

Yet you don’t have to be paranoid to wonder if events were following a script: protesters pour into the streets only to be beaten down by Revolutionary Guard and Basij gunmen; the regime is prepared to detain dissidents — reportedly using Facebook and Twitter to locate them; Mr. Ahmadinejad is so unworried he jets off to Russia; and every element of the confrontation has provided a pretext for an overwhelming assertion of domestic power by the Revolutionary Guards.

What does this mean for President Obama and the policy of engagement he hopes to pursue? Some will argue that Mr. Ahmadinejad may be in a conciliatory mood because he needs talks with the United States to underscore his own legitimacy, but that can only be read as a self-serving Washington perspective. Meanwhile, the Iranian people will have suffered the consolidation of power by a ruthless regime and the transformation of a theocracy to an ideological military dictatorship. That Iran neither needs nor wants accommodation with the West.

 

[Nik]

Hundreds of thousands on the streets again. Rumors of Emergency meeting of Assembly of Experts. This is the group that has the power to remove Khamanei.

 

[DavidS]

Thank you for posting this information. It's hard to keep up on Twitter because of all of the accounts. It's amazing what micro-blogging can do.

10:41 AM ET -- Disinformation. A note of caution to those of you following Iran news on Twitter. The user @serv_ is aggressively spreading false information, including fabricated "re-tweets" supposedly written by good sources, seemingly trying to discredit them.
10:38 AM ET -- Mousavi calls for a day of mourning for Iran dead. Reuters reports:

A number of our countrymen were wounded or martyred," Mousavi said, calling the day of mourning for Thursday.
"I ask the people to express their solidarity with the families ... by coming together in mosques or taking part in peaceful demonstrations," Mousavi said on his website.
10:30 AM ET -- The World Cup variable. A few days ago, I printed this mail from an Iranian-American friend:

Wednesday is the last qualifying game for the Iranian national soccer team for the World Cup. If they lose they don't qualify. This revolt is different from '99 and '04 in that it's not primarily student based. It's worth noting that if Iran loses to the good South Korea team, there is a whole another spark of frustration.​

Reader Ryan sends over the results from today's match -- a tie. "Iran tied S. Korea. 1-1 in world cup qualifier. Iran had lead starting in second half until the equalizer in the 80th minute by Park Ji Sung of Man. U. Iran needs a N. Korea win vs Saudis to qualify now for the World Cup. A Saudi win or tie elimnates them. That match is today and could be another spark for protesters."
FT.com / Iran - Iran’s star footballers show support for Moussavi
10:22 AM ET -- Busting the stereotypes. An article from Time magazine that I should have linked to earlier, by one of the most knowledgeable voices on Iran in the U.S. media, Trita Parsi of the National Iranian American Council:

The schism in Iran is not reducible to social class, ethnicity, region or generation. A simple glance at the crowds over the past week reveals women in black chadors on both sides of the divide, and women in makeup too. Many kids whose parents were poor have themselves managed to get university degrees as a result of the revolution's largesse -- Ahmadinejad may be a populist, and he may emphasize his humble origins, but he's proud of his Ph.D. (His supporters call him "the Doctor.") And many children of rural poverty who are now educated and living in the cities, though still of limited means, don't necessarily share the outlook of their parents. Absent a proper tabulation of the actual vote on June 12, we'll never know the exact distribution of political support to each candidate across the regions, social classes and age groups. But even in the rallies in support of the candidates before and after the election, it's plain that the country can't be neatly divided along the lines of those categories.​

 

[Nik]

Confirmation of foreign fighters in Iran. Haven't heard anything but pure speculation on where they are from though. They are speaking Arabic apparently.

Edit: Whoops!

 

[Nik]

Iranian soccer players in the world cup game today. Look at their wrists...

Meh. Lots of pics aren't working. So go here to look at it.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_FsXXZNVIYJM/SjjSAQzoLAI/AAAAAAAAAwo/ite4S3vSMqI/s1600-h/1245312818.jpg

 

[Nik]

Todays protest.

 

[Nik]

Burned out dorms. Not sure this is from before, or is what happened last night. Apparently the Universities in Tehran were attacked last night again though.




[youtube]<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/PukLhLZW_AI&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&feature=player_embedded&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/PukLhLZW_AI&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>[/youtube]

 

[Nik]

Protests are supposedly getting bigger because people are coming out to also protest the brutality by the Basijs, not just the election results.

 

[Nik]

Statement from the AP:

Iran’s most powerful military force is warning online media of a crackdown over their coverage of the country’s election crisis. The Revolutionary Guards, an elite body answering to the supreme leader, says Iranian Web sites and bloggers must remove any materials that “create tension” or face legal action.

It is the Guards’ first public statement since the crisis erupted following the presidential election last Friday. Iranian reformist Web sites as well as blogs and Western Web sites like Facebook and Twitter have been vital conduits for Iranians to inform the world about protests over the declaration of election victory for hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The government barred foreign media Tuesday from leaving their offices to report on the street protests.

Seems to me to be a very, very bad sign. Why are they speaking out about this, and why now?

 

[Nik]

[youtube]<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/OX56M1s0BwE&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&feature=player_embedded&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/OX56M1s0BwE&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>[/youtube]

Video of the pic I posted before showing how huge the rallies are today.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Amid the violence, confusion and government restrictions on communication, the accuracy of conflicting accounts is hard to ascertain.

"The most important thing that I believe people outside of Iran should be aware of," the young man went on, "is the participation of Palestinian forces in these riots."

Another protester, who spoke as he carried a kitchen knife in one hand and a stone in the other, also cited the presence of Hamas in Teheran.

On Monday, he said, "my brother had his ribs beaten in by those Palestinian animals. Taking our people's money is not enough, they are thirsty for our blood too."

It was ironic, this man said, that the victorious Ahmadinejad "tells us to pray for the young Palestinians, suffering at the hands of Israel." His hope, he added, was that Israel would "come to its senses" and ruthlessly deal with the Palestinians.

When asked if these militia fighters could have been mistaken for Lebanese Shi'ites, sent by Hizbullah, he rejected the idea. "Ask anyone, they will tell you the same thing. They [Palestinian extremists] are out beating Iranians in the streets… The more we gave this arrogant race, the more they want… [But] we will not let them push us around in our own country."

Protesters tell "Post' Hamas helping Iran crush dissent | Iran news | Jerusalem Post

 

[rhodescholar]

Reports of Iranian police wearing green scarves. A very, very good sign for the protestors.

Maybe, maybe not. There were reports that the Basij had stood next to protestors so as to be inconspicuous, and then pulled out knives or chains and attacked them.

 

[Nik]

Reports of Iranian police wearing green scarves. A very, very good sign for the protestors.

Maybe, maybe not. There were reports that the Basij had stood next to protestors so as to be inconspicuous, and then pulled out knives or chains and attacked them.

I've heard that as well, although apparently that was in Isfahan. It seems like the cops and the military may be showing some signs (either just as individuals, or perhaps the higher ups have approved) of support for the protestors.

Actually...thinking about this more, it doesn't make any sense that it would be anything other than support. Cops aren't trying to be inconspicous...they have large signs on them that say POLICE. So its not as if they are somehow trying to blend in with the protestors, as the Basij were. I dunno, I might be wrong, but it seems to be a real sign, especially considering the other signs of institutional support we've seen lately.

 

[Nik]

Amid the violence, confusion and government restrictions on communication, the accuracy of conflicting accounts is hard to ascertain.

"The most important thing that I believe people outside of Iran should be aware of," the young man went on, "is the participation of Palestinian forces in these riots."

Another protester, who spoke as he carried a kitchen knife in one hand and a stone in the other, also cited the presence of Hamas in Teheran.

On Monday, he said, "my brother had his ribs beaten in by those Palestinian animals. Taking our people's money is not enough, they are thirsty for our blood too."

It was ironic, this man said, that the victorious Ahmadinejad "tells us to pray for the young Palestinians, suffering at the hands of Israel." His hope, he added, was that Israel would "come to its senses" and ruthlessly deal with the Palestinians.

When asked if these militia fighters could have been mistaken for Lebanese Shi'ites, sent by Hizbullah, he rejected the idea. "Ask anyone, they will tell you the same thing. They [Palestinian extremists] are out beating Iranians in the streets… The more we gave this arrogant race, the more they want… [But] we will not let them push us around in our own country."

Protesters tell "Post' Hamas helping Iran crush dissent | Iran news | Jerusalem Post

What Nico Pitney has to say about that article:

Where are the standards? The Jerusalem Post runs a story, based off the claims of "two protesters," that Palestinian Hamas members are attacking the reformists in Iran.

On Monday, he said, "my brother had his ribs beaten in by those Palestinian animals. Taking our people's money is not enough, they are thirsty for our blood too."
The protesters quoted offer no evidence (that the Post printed) of a tie to Palestine or Hamas. It seems quite irresponsible to me for a newspaper to be printing these serious allegations with apparently zero evidence. I should say, the Jerusalem Post isn't the only guilty party, just the most recent.

That said, as I wrote last night, I am very eager to find evidence of foreign fighters in Iran. If you see any, please send it over.

His claims ring true to me. It seems to be poorly sourced, and it seems a bit strange that there would be vast amounts of Palestinians there. But I am also interested in seeing information of this type, so feel free to post other sources if they are saying this, or anything else about foreign fighters.

 

[L.K.Eder]

Confirmation of foreign fighters in Iraq. Haven't heard anything but pure speculation on where they are from though. They are speaking Arabic apparently.

if you could post a link to this confirmation, that would be great. if you are indeed talking about foreign fighters in Iran, not Iraq.

I don't doubt it, but i have not seen a confirmed report yet, only rumors. and a perfect example of rumors is the piece by the jpost posted later in this thread.

 

[Nik]

Confirmation of foreign fighters in Iraq. Haven't heard anything but pure speculation on where they are from though. They are speaking Arabic apparently.

if you could post a link to this confirmation, that would be great. if you are indeed talking about foreign fighters in Iran, not Iraq.

Haha, fuck. Nice catch. I can't post a link, its on twitter and I don't want to release twitter names. But its one of the most trusted sources there, and its been confirmed by numerous individuals.

One caveat...it could be Iranians speaking Arabic, or something else...but there have been numerous reports of some of the Basij speaking Arabic. How many are speaking Arabic, I have no idea.

I don't doubt it, but i have not seen a confirmed report yet, only rumors. and a perfect example of rumors is the piece by the jpost posted later in this thread.

By confirmed I mean its probably true ;p. As I said in the OP, nothing is 100% confirmed here because of the nature of the Iranian regime and how good they've been at blocking the information flow.

 

[DavidS]

Confirmation of foreign fighters in Iran. Haven't heard anything but pure speculation on where they are from though. They are speaking Arabic apparently.

Edit: Whoops!

Hamas and Hezbollah are both on Iran's payroll. Not surprising and quite disgusting to be honest. This is a FRAGILE situation - one move the wrong way by the government and this thing will explode.

Isn't it amazing, though, how the partial recount of the votes is taking LONGER than the first counting of ALL of the votes??