Iran celebrates these days over the thirty-first anniversary of the revolution, on this occasion going debate between the political elites in the Arab world between supporters and opponents of the Iranian regime, while focusing on the face favor of the United States and Israel (the global arrogance), and stiffness in the nuclear file, and Tehran's ability to maneuver which to assert their rights and legitimacy, and its economic achievements, and scientific achievements such as low illiteracy rate, and development in terms of infrastructure, and launching a satellite into space, and perhaps the Tehran Declaration, announced the successful launch of a missile capable of carrying a satellite into space a few days ago was in the direction of support and point of view, pro - ; as happened in the celebrations of the thirtieth anniversary of the revolution last year, when Tehran announced its success in launching the first satellite of the locally-made space, this was the achievement of the most prominent arguments put forward by pro-Iranian regime in their discussions through the media at the time, but opponents of the regime's policies, Tehran find plenty of excuses to the deteriorating domestic situation, and increasing repression and oppression against the masses, and the low standard of living for the majority of the Iranian people, and rampant corruption within the ruling clerical establishment, and have rebuffed the scientific achievements announced by Iran from time to time, Iatrunha intended for media consumption, which ultimately is not up to the achievements of the Union the Soviet Union in various fields, who could by Iran, the invasion of space and nuclear bomb-making and other economic achievements; but all that did not prevent the collapse due to neglect of the conditions of its peoples and to suppress, ruling with an iron fist caused the estrangement, the same road that goes by the clerical regime today .
However, the celebrations this year will have a different taste because of the crisis plaguing the Iranian regime, and increased tension between the two parties, no doubt that the debate between the reformists and the conservatives will be less severe than is being between supporters and opponents in the Arab world, and if in years past debates and dialogues taking place On the question: Why Iran after thirty-one years of the revolution? This time, the question would be: Why Iran after ten elections?
This question is the closest;, because it is a clear indication of the current crisis that has raised since its inception a sensation among observers of The Iranian, who varied opinions from the extreme right to extreme left, which emphasized some of them after the events of Ashura, the Iranian regime's days are numbered; because the demonstrations large protests in Ashura, which acknowledged themselves to be conservatives over half a million protesters figure might be much larger than this estimate indicates that the demands of reformers have over the broad public, which continues to increase despite all attempts by the Revolutionary Guards and Basij of suppressing them, but conservatives in turn Magdy Rady taken to the streets in response to the demonstrations reformists; shown that these also have a popular in Iran, a mistake to imagine that the Iranian regime will collapse soon, in addition, some Muslims are rejecting the other opinion, which describes the case of Iran now (and no doubt it in the case of revolutionary economic factors and political and social) as similar to what it was in the late Shah's rule and for the following reasons:
- The current system to increase the presence of a significant popular support him, it differs from the Shah's regime, which was a unilateral decision-making, while the multiple decision-making positions in the current system, even in the beginning of the crisis did not prevent the confrontation with the reformists the objections of some conservative lawmakers to appoint Ahmadinejad and his brother-ministers and the refusal of some of his policies, and now there are voices of them accused of Ahmadinejad ill deal with the crisis, causing the aggravation of the situation any more, and none of these calls for a compromise with the reformers and opposed to all the charges against them.
- It is true that the reformers claim - some of them at least - to abolish the post of clerical rule, but the figures in this stage, claiming that they are, believe in al-Faqih and the approach to Khomeini; and even accuse conservatives to leave him, and all what they claim it is the reform of the system from within, this What emerges from the initiatives of Mir-Hossein Moussavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and reach out to resolve the crisis demanded the release of all prisoners, and rehabilitation for them, opening the way for freedom of expression and to allow the newspapers suspended sprung again and recognize the right of the people in the legal communities and to allow the parties to work freely in accordance with the law, the government's call for action under the law, and the preparation of an election law to ensure fair competition and fair election, but the other question this and consider open tactics of reformers who espouse anti-Wilayat al-Faqih, while in 1979 the opposition had been demanding the fall of the Shah, and rejected all attempts to end the crisis.
- Reform ideology, whatever the demands - and even abolish the post of supreme leader - remain within the Shiite view that the subject of clerical rule in the Shiite ideology, but there are many religious references that support them, most notably the religious authority, who died recently, Ayatollah Hussein Ali Montazeri, who was conscientious objectors to the mandate of the jurist, even in the lives of Khomeini; prompting the latter to remove him after he was nominated to succeed him, on the one hand, and on the other; the foreign policy positions at least as stringent as the positions of conservatives has been particularly nuclear file, and highlights the national priority here instead of revolutionary slogans for the Conservatives Krfhm the slogan "No to Gaza and Lebanon are all a scapegoat for Iran," This is an approach close to the orientation of youth who aspire to improve the conditions and refuse to be more royalist than the king, in a sign of good relations between the United States and most Arab countries who are supposed to be more hostile to them, and they believe that conservative slogans caused damage to the interests of the country, and therefore the demands of the reformers is part of the social fabric of Iranian society, but in the 1979 revolution was the Shah's regime to its policy on how internal secular Alotturkep and foreign policy in favor of Israel and the United States full and sometimes at the expense of the interests of Iran caused a rupture with the community; Khomeini exploited to incite the masses and the revolution of the Shah.
- There is parity between the parties in terms of Almtsaraeiin (charisma) On the one hand, we find Ali Khamenei and Ahmadinejad in a party and find Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mir Hussein Moussavi, Mehdi Karroubi on the other side note that they are all leaders of the first row at the time of Khomeini.
And also not enjoy Khamenei doubtful points of reference originally compared Khomeini at the grassroots level; especially after Khamenei's election, and endorsed by Ahmadinejad, considered the election fair; What is the effect on his reputation and the voices of demonstrators again chanted: "Death to Khamenei's death a dictator," and even within the political elites, we find that both parties have considerable influence in government institutions, we must not forget that Rafsanjani is still the President of the Assembly of Experts, which from his appointment and removal of the guide, in addition to his presidency of the Republic for two consecutive sessions, and other positions he has held before, as the reformers had been enjoying parliamentary majority and the Presidency of the Republic, also in two of President Khatami, but in 1979, Khomeini was his personality (charisma) and place a strong religious impulse of the revolution so that the opposition of different approaches communism and liberalism stood at his side.
Through the scrutiny of these data; note that the current crisis was close to the revolution of 1905 for the 1979 revolution, because the demands that are calling for reform of the constitution are the same as the demands of the Constitutional Revolution, which demanded the Shah (Muzaffar Din Qajar dynasty) has developed a constitution for the country not only aims to change system, and to have done so is the army (led by Reza Pahlavi), after many years in a different context, knowing that he had no role in the Constitutional Revolution.
While I stood by foreign powers to Muzaffar Shah of religion in the Revolution of 1905 they were against the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in 1979 In the current crisis, the position of foreign powers only to denounce the suppression of the demonstrators and the media support of the opposition without the support of a clear and direct; but it continued to negotiate with system on his nuclear program what it considered the Iranian opposition in favor of it.
Therefore, the scenario closest to resolve the Iranian crisis will be similar in one way or another scenario of the Constitutional Revolution and away dramatically from the 1979 revolution, because the scenario on the Elimination of the reform movement (which is a possibility), especially with the beginning of the talk within the Iranian media on the preparations for the upcoming elections, which were the signals to prevent reformers from taking part because of the constitutional requirements of candidates and to accept them (the consent of the supreme leader), but these people will not stand idly by and waiting for their opponents what to do, but will continue to criticize the policies of the regime and demands for reform, given the difficult economic conditions experienced by Iran and the possibility of more chilled and aggravated under the threat of Western sanctions on Iran; will contribute to the pressure on the conservatives, "History is not the demise of any revolution, assassination, exile, prison leaders; on the contrary would be an incentive to Togejehaoin passed by periods of decline; they quickly come back to explode and more especially with the continuation of the regime in dealing with the way security, all this leads to conflict between militants from the conservatives who are demanding the execution of Moussaoui and Karroubi, and those who are asking for a compromise with them.
Accordingly; If the Puritans to the oldest of such a step; was Iran's interference in an endless spiral of violence are the results either change the system and the abolition of clerical rule, or its continuation, while the other trend, if he could find a compromise solution which is more correct we will see some promises to respect the law and other reforms dictated by the balance of power within the system at that stage.
However, the celebrations this year will have a different taste because of the crisis plaguing the Iranian regime, and increased tension between the two parties, no doubt that the debate between the reformists and the conservatives will be less severe than is being between supporters and opponents in the Arab world, and if in years past debates and dialogues taking place On the question: Why Iran after thirty-one years of the revolution? This time, the question would be: Why Iran after ten elections?
This question is the closest;, because it is a clear indication of the current crisis that has raised since its inception a sensation among observers of The Iranian, who varied opinions from the extreme right to extreme left, which emphasized some of them after the events of Ashura, the Iranian regime's days are numbered; because the demonstrations large protests in Ashura, which acknowledged themselves to be conservatives over half a million protesters figure might be much larger than this estimate indicates that the demands of reformers have over the broad public, which continues to increase despite all attempts by the Revolutionary Guards and Basij of suppressing them, but conservatives in turn Magdy Rady taken to the streets in response to the demonstrations reformists; shown that these also have a popular in Iran, a mistake to imagine that the Iranian regime will collapse soon, in addition, some Muslims are rejecting the other opinion, which describes the case of Iran now (and no doubt it in the case of revolutionary economic factors and political and social) as similar to what it was in the late Shah's rule and for the following reasons:
- The current system to increase the presence of a significant popular support him, it differs from the Shah's regime, which was a unilateral decision-making, while the multiple decision-making positions in the current system, even in the beginning of the crisis did not prevent the confrontation with the reformists the objections of some conservative lawmakers to appoint Ahmadinejad and his brother-ministers and the refusal of some of his policies, and now there are voices of them accused of Ahmadinejad ill deal with the crisis, causing the aggravation of the situation any more, and none of these calls for a compromise with the reformers and opposed to all the charges against them.
- It is true that the reformers claim - some of them at least - to abolish the post of clerical rule, but the figures in this stage, claiming that they are, believe in al-Faqih and the approach to Khomeini; and even accuse conservatives to leave him, and all what they claim it is the reform of the system from within, this What emerges from the initiatives of Mir-Hossein Moussavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and reach out to resolve the crisis demanded the release of all prisoners, and rehabilitation for them, opening the way for freedom of expression and to allow the newspapers suspended sprung again and recognize the right of the people in the legal communities and to allow the parties to work freely in accordance with the law, the government's call for action under the law, and the preparation of an election law to ensure fair competition and fair election, but the other question this and consider open tactics of reformers who espouse anti-Wilayat al-Faqih, while in 1979 the opposition had been demanding the fall of the Shah, and rejected all attempts to end the crisis.
- Reform ideology, whatever the demands - and even abolish the post of supreme leader - remain within the Shiite view that the subject of clerical rule in the Shiite ideology, but there are many religious references that support them, most notably the religious authority, who died recently, Ayatollah Hussein Ali Montazeri, who was conscientious objectors to the mandate of the jurist, even in the lives of Khomeini; prompting the latter to remove him after he was nominated to succeed him, on the one hand, and on the other; the foreign policy positions at least as stringent as the positions of conservatives has been particularly nuclear file, and highlights the national priority here instead of revolutionary slogans for the Conservatives Krfhm the slogan "No to Gaza and Lebanon are all a scapegoat for Iran," This is an approach close to the orientation of youth who aspire to improve the conditions and refuse to be more royalist than the king, in a sign of good relations between the United States and most Arab countries who are supposed to be more hostile to them, and they believe that conservative slogans caused damage to the interests of the country, and therefore the demands of the reformers is part of the social fabric of Iranian society, but in the 1979 revolution was the Shah's regime to its policy on how internal secular Alotturkep and foreign policy in favor of Israel and the United States full and sometimes at the expense of the interests of Iran caused a rupture with the community; Khomeini exploited to incite the masses and the revolution of the Shah.
- There is parity between the parties in terms of Almtsaraeiin (charisma) On the one hand, we find Ali Khamenei and Ahmadinejad in a party and find Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mir Hussein Moussavi, Mehdi Karroubi on the other side note that they are all leaders of the first row at the time of Khomeini.
And also not enjoy Khamenei doubtful points of reference originally compared Khomeini at the grassroots level; especially after Khamenei's election, and endorsed by Ahmadinejad, considered the election fair; What is the effect on his reputation and the voices of demonstrators again chanted: "Death to Khamenei's death a dictator," and even within the political elites, we find that both parties have considerable influence in government institutions, we must not forget that Rafsanjani is still the President of the Assembly of Experts, which from his appointment and removal of the guide, in addition to his presidency of the Republic for two consecutive sessions, and other positions he has held before, as the reformers had been enjoying parliamentary majority and the Presidency of the Republic, also in two of President Khatami, but in 1979, Khomeini was his personality (charisma) and place a strong religious impulse of the revolution so that the opposition of different approaches communism and liberalism stood at his side.
Through the scrutiny of these data; note that the current crisis was close to the revolution of 1905 for the 1979 revolution, because the demands that are calling for reform of the constitution are the same as the demands of the Constitutional Revolution, which demanded the Shah (Muzaffar Din Qajar dynasty) has developed a constitution for the country not only aims to change system, and to have done so is the army (led by Reza Pahlavi), after many years in a different context, knowing that he had no role in the Constitutional Revolution.
While I stood by foreign powers to Muzaffar Shah of religion in the Revolution of 1905 they were against the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in 1979 In the current crisis, the position of foreign powers only to denounce the suppression of the demonstrators and the media support of the opposition without the support of a clear and direct; but it continued to negotiate with system on his nuclear program what it considered the Iranian opposition in favor of it.
Therefore, the scenario closest to resolve the Iranian crisis will be similar in one way or another scenario of the Constitutional Revolution and away dramatically from the 1979 revolution, because the scenario on the Elimination of the reform movement (which is a possibility), especially with the beginning of the talk within the Iranian media on the preparations for the upcoming elections, which were the signals to prevent reformers from taking part because of the constitutional requirements of candidates and to accept them (the consent of the supreme leader), but these people will not stand idly by and waiting for their opponents what to do, but will continue to criticize the policies of the regime and demands for reform, given the difficult economic conditions experienced by Iran and the possibility of more chilled and aggravated under the threat of Western sanctions on Iran; will contribute to the pressure on the conservatives, "History is not the demise of any revolution, assassination, exile, prison leaders; on the contrary would be an incentive to Togejehaoin passed by periods of decline; they quickly come back to explode and more especially with the continuation of the regime in dealing with the way security, all this leads to conflict between militants from the conservatives who are demanding the execution of Moussaoui and Karroubi, and those who are asking for a compromise with them.
Accordingly; If the Puritans to the oldest of such a step; was Iran's interference in an endless spiral of violence are the results either change the system and the abolition of clerical rule, or its continuation, while the other trend, if he could find a compromise solution which is more correct we will see some promises to respect the law and other reforms dictated by the balance of power within the system at that stage.
