Iran War About to Begin

[toomuchtime_]

Cannot get in there soon enough. I just want the regime targeted, because if it is destroyed and a rational one takes over, the nuke program becomes less of an issue.

What makes you think a "rational" regime will take over?

I think a strike will:

-Delay the inevitable for about 2-3 years.

-Will push the Iranian nuclear weapons program even further underground.

-Potentially motivate the Iranians to ramp up their efforts, because if a country like Israel (with 550+ fully armed nuclear warheads, mind you) is capable of striking at will, then there's a greater case for Iran to build up its own defenses.

-Will likely escalate into a larger-scale ground war which could destabilize the region and will cost the United States a lot of lives and a lot of money.

*One scenario would be if ran, for instance, retaliates by filling the strait of Hormuz with mines. If these are to be cleared out, the US/Israel will have to take out all of the ground defenses that overlook the straight so that Iran does not attack when the mines are being dismantled.

I don't want Iran to have nukes either, I just don't know if the pros of an attack are worth all of the cons I list above.

If a "strike" is done properly, and the sanctions are kept in place, it will likely end the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Most of the estimates of the consequences of a strike against Iran's nuclear weapons and long range missile programs assume it will be a surgical strike only against these programs, but this would be irresponsible since, as you noted, Iran has threatened various forms of retaliation. A high priority of any strike should be to take out as much as possible Iran's ability to project power beyond its borders by destroying its navy, missile launchers, etc. as well as any research facilities that may be related to military applications. Such preemptive actions will limit Iran's ability to retaliate.

Iran's economy is already in the toilet with inflation running over 21% - some say as high as 50% - and its currency, the rial, having lost 75% of its value in the last few months. Iran has been rushing to buy up huge amounts of basic items such as wheat before the sanctions make it close to impossible for Iran to buy or sell anything internationally. Nearly all the items needed for its nuclear weapons and long range missile programs have been bought on the black market at premium prices over a period of years, and it is highly unlikely that as long as its economy remains on life support Iran will be able to make any substantial efforts to replace the billions of dollars of equipment that will be destroyed.

As for Israel's nukes, Iran has no more reason to fear them than it has to fear any other country's nukes unless Iran plans to try to nukes Israel.

 

[kawserahmed]

You will see the war just this year. You can not stop it. It may lead to a world war (3rd world war). Israel and westerns does not want that Iran has occupied a nuclear weapon. There is no possibility to stop Iran without a war.

 

[Unkotare]

Neither Iran nor anyone else in the world is stupid enough to believe what an American says.

Speak for yourself (and the current administration).

 

[Mr. H.]

New US Stealth Fighters Now at Iran's Back Door - Yahoo! News

America's most sophisticated stealth jet fighters have been quietly deployed to an allied base less than 200 miles from Iran's mainland, according to an industry report, but the Air Force adamantly denied the jets' presence is a threat to the Middle East nation.

Multiple stealth F-22 Raptors, which have never been combat-tested, are in hangars at the United Arab Emirates' Al Dafra Air Base, just a short hop over the Persian Gulf from Iran's southern border, the trade publication Aviation Week reported.

 

[Wry Catcher]

obama thinks that a war between Israel and Iran would ruin his reelection. He's demanding it not happen.

Quite the contrary, it could put him over the top and he is demanding that it not happen because the timing is bad for him. He wants to make sure that nothing happens until...oh...August or September. Then:

If Obama is ahead in the polls nothing will happen until after the election.

If he is slightly behind in the polls he will authorize an Israeli strike and then go on TV saying how we stand by Israel in their time of need, we stand against the evil Iranians, etc. That will secure the Jewish vote (which right now seems to be in question) and gain support among some super-hawks due to a sense of patriotism.

If he is moderately behind we will strike Iran ourselves to further enhance the above point.

If he is far behind we will invade because the United States almost never changes Presidents in a time of war if it can be avoided. Which of course begs the question: "would Obama really invade Iran just to win the election?" IMO: "fuck yes, without hesitation, or a lost wink of sleep."


So the issue right now is that Israel wants to get this done, Obama is desperately trying to get them to wait until it's to his political advantage, and they are saying "fuck you" as he has not exactly been their best friend in the world for the last four years, and they argue that a November strike may be too late.

Wow, I'm impressed. How long have you been able to see the future? Does everyone you know, know you're a psychotic?

 

[JStone]

New US Stealth Fighters Now at Iran's Back Door - Yahoo! News

America's most sophisticated stealth jet fighters have been quietly deployed to an allied base less than 200 miles from Iran's mainland, according to an industry report, but the Air Force adamantly denied the jets' presence is a threat to the Middle East nation.

Multiple stealth F-22 Raptors, which have never been combat-tested, are in hangars at the United Arab Emirates' Al Dafra Air Base, just a short hop over the Persian Gulf from Iran's southern border, the trade publication Aviation Week reported.

You get your news from yahoo? Not surprising.