Iran V US The Real War

[ekrem]

That is what caused the Cedar Revolution. What I said.
Yes, but the legislators are in day to day knowledge of what is going on, which is what proxies give.

Yes, then my mistake allthough we meant the same, you knew it more detailled then me (Soecial Name of Hariris incident).

 

[Mr.Conley]

I just wonder what the world will be like with jews controlling the oil. I think we should get involved so we have more influence when it comes time to divvy up the spoils.

Don't worry rtwng, the Jews wouldn't gain control of the oil. Syria and Lebanon don't have any substancial amount of oil, and they won't get ground troops into Iran to secure the oil wells. The Gulf States such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Yemen, and Oman aren't going to get involved. The Saudis have condemn Hizbollah and the other states don't have any substancial armies and wouldn't want to jeopardize their relations with the US.

Syria is 'out of' Lebanon, since the Cedar Revolution. However, Hizbollah is a proxy of, as is Hamas. Hizbolla has a significant minority vote in their legislature. Syria is a proxy of Iran. Iran wants this war, they are not going to let Syria be pushed anywhere they don't want it to be. I expect more and better weapons to show up.

Their military is out, but they still hold significant influence both directly and through the proxy organizations. The Israelis might be able to purge it.

As for Syria and Iran, Syria and Iran are allies, but Syria isn't Iran's dog. Syria's leader, President Assad, the son of the former President, position is too tenuous. Many in Syria, including an uncomfortable number of people at the top of the military, think Assad is weak. Assad is in a very dangerous position. So far he has managed to hold his position, but a disasterous war with Israel (the only type of war Syria has ever had with Israel) could be the tipping point that sparks a coup or revolt. Assad realizes this fact, and he isn't going to jeopardize his own position just because Ahmadinijad wants another Holocaust. I don't expect to see any direct, aggressive military action from the Syrians. President Assad knows that in the end the only person it will hurt is him, so don't worry about the Syrians.

 

[Annie]

Don't worry rtwng, the Jews wouldn't gain control of the oil. Syria and Lebanon don't have any substancial amount of oil, and they won't get ground troops into Iran to secure the oil wells. The Gulf States such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Yemen, and Oman aren't going to get involved. The Saudis have condemn Hizbollah and the other states don't have any substancial armies and wouldn't want to jeopardize their relations with the US.


Their military is out, but they still hold significant influence both directly and through the proxy organizations. The Israelis might be able to purge it.

As for Syria and Iran, Syria and Iran are allies, but Syria isn't Iran's dog. Syria's leader, President Assad, the son of the former President, position is too tenuous. Many in Syria, including an uncomfortable number of people at the top of the military, think Assad is weak. Assad is in a very dangerous position. So far he has managed to hold his position, but a disasterous war with Israel (the only type of war Syria has ever had with Israel) could be the tipping point that sparks a coup or revolt. Assad realizes this fact, and he isn't going to jeopardize his own position just because Ahmadinijad wants another Holocaust. I don't expect to see any direct, aggressive military action from the Syrians. President Assad knows that in the end the only person it will hurt is him, so don't worry about the Syrians.

In all liklihood, Assad doesn't matter a rat's ass. The 'government' of Syria today said they would provide 'all necessary aid to Hizbollah', that didn't come from Assad. Assad is NOT in control of Syria, the gorilla from Iran is. That is what a proxy means.

 

[dilloduck]

In all liklihood, Assad doesn't matter a rat's ass. The 'government' of Syria today said they would provide 'all necessary aid to Hizbollah', that didn't come from Assad. Assad is NOT in control of Syria, the gorilla from Iran is. That is what a proxy means.

I'd like to be a bug on the wall and listen to Syrian fighters decide which front they are going to choose to fight on. Talk about a rock and a hard place.

 

[Mr.Conley]

In all liklihood, Assad doesn't matter a rat's ass. The 'government' of Syria today said they would provide 'all necessary aid to Hizbollah', that didn't come from Assad. Assad is NOT in control of Syria, the gorilla from Iran is. That is what a proxy means.

I could see Assad losing power. I'm surprised I didn't hear about it, but I could see it. However, your going to have to provide me with a link to prove that Iran controls Syria's government.

 

[Annie]

I could see Assad losing power. I'm surprised I didn't hear about it, but I could see it. However, your going to have to provide me with a link to prove that Iran controls Syria's government.

Deal. When you give me the link showing that US could stop Israel at will.

 

[Mr.Conley]

Deal. When you give me the link showing that US could stop Israel at will.

What the heck, who ever said we could stop the Israelis whenever we felt like it?

 

[Annie]

What the heck, who ever said we could stop the Israelis whenever we felt like it?

The problem with proxies, from whichever direction one is coming at.

 

[Mr.Conley]

The problem with proxies, from whichever direction one is coming at.

So Iran controls Syria because we can't control Israel?!?!??

 

[Annie]

So Iran controls Syria because we can't control Israel?!?!??

No, Iran controls Syria because they can and they have for years. They want control of the area. Iran wants to destroy Israel, which has been made very clear by the PM.

Hizbollah is how Syria, the proxy is still attempting to control Lebanon. Hamas, the Palestinian territories.

Iran has chosen the times and places for attacks. Lebanon wants it to stop, note that it's not.

 

[Mr.Conley]

No Iran controls over what we can claim for Israel. Then again, they might be tougher on their proxies? Ya think?

Could you rephrase that please.

 

[Emmett]

I must be way out in left field because I can't seem to muster one single ounce of "give a shit" about how Israel deals with their "little" problem. Folks, it is just not relative to the grand scheme of things as to what they do.

Notice how Quiet the Saudi's have been in relation to this recent activity. They may not control ALL the oil but brother they DO control the price on the world market. They ARE NOT going to be in a war (officially) and ARE NOT going to sacrifice one ounce of that control of market pricing. Everyone will follow their lead.

Israel is not going in the oil business because it wouldn't do them any good to control oil fields to begin with. Iran can basically do what they want. The clerics may dictate social policy there but they have NO influence in the biz. That's beejn tried, failed!

As the world evolves over the next 20 years as looks for alternative sources of energy you will see the Saudi's step up and do whatever they can to market their one and only resource, OIL! They will make it cheaper, watch and see. Just remember you heard it here from some dude that wasn't suppose to be much of an authority on this stuff.

Remember the 70's? Oil was gonna be extinct by 1990, prices wouldn't even matter because there was such a shortage! Come on!

 

[Said1]

Instability, regardless of the area, affects the export of oil in the region.

 

[Emmett]

But............

Money talks, bullshit walks. The Saudi's have money! The oil WILL ship. Watch and see.

 

[Mr.Conley]

I must be way out in left field because I can't seem to muster one single ounce of "give a shit" about how Israel deals with their "little" problem. Folks, it is just not relative to the grand scheme of things as to what they do.

Not true. Israel is the giant, festering sore spot for the rest of the Middle East. Those people get unduely emotional about the whole thing. If Israel really starts screwing people over, then anger on the Arab street is going to force many Arab countries to act. THAT is when this thing really starts affecting you and me.

Notice how Quiet the Saudi's have been in relation to this recent activity. They may not control ALL the oil but brother they DO control the price on the world market. They ARE NOT going to be in a war (officially) and ARE NOT going to sacrifice one ounce of that control of market pricing. Everyone will follow their lead.

The Saudi's love and hate high oil prices, and I bet that if this had happened 20 years ago the Saudi's would be pushing for this war. That way we'd see a huge spike in oil prices and if the Israelis KO'd Iran, then the Saudi's could pick up all their business. The problem is that nowadays the Saudi's don't have the capacity to pick up the slack from a major supply disruption. A lot of their big fields have peaked, and a dwindling supply coupled by rising demand is starting to put the Saudi's between a rock and a hard place. Right after Katrina hit they flat out admitted that they couldn't pick up any additional demand. Now their trying to stay in the sweet spot where they get a great price for their oil but don't cause the markets to panic. Really high oil prices actually hurt the Saudi's in the long term because they make people realize just how vulnerable they are, and that encourages the big customers to start finding alternatives to oil. Regardless of what many people say, the Saudi's are going to have a lot of oil for the next 30 years (although probably not enought to meet demand), and they want that oil to be valuable throughout that period. If alternatives start coming into effect in force, then their only major export goes down the drain. This is why the Saudi's are being silent; they don't want the entire region to light on fire and send the price of oil into the $100 range. At that point, alternatives become VERY lucrative.

Israel is not going in the oil business because it wouldn't do them any good to control oil fields to begin with.

True, as much as I'm sure the Israelis would love to control the world's oil supply, and ergo the world, I doubt they have the capability to occupy such a large area efficetively and I doubt they could handle the ensuing onslaught from Russia and possibly the EU.

Iran can basically do what they want. The clerics may dictate social policy there but they have NO influence in the biz. That's beejn tried, failed!

The Iranians just have to keep acting crazy. That pushes oil prices even higher, which is exactly what they want. I wouldn't be surprise if Iran helped instigate this whole thing to raise the price of crude oil.

As the world evolves over the next 20 years as looks for alternative sources of energy you will see the Saudi's step up and do whatever they can to market their one and only resource, OIL! They will make it cheaper, watch and see. Just remember you heard it here from some dude that wasn't suppose to be much of an authority on this stuff.

The Saudi's can raise prices, but they can't lower market prices. Although they could undercut them... besides I doubt we'll have enough in the way of alternatives to seriously reduce our oil dependency.

 

[rtwngAvngr]

Could you rephrase that please.

She can't. The infection has spread to the brain.

 

[Annie]

Could you rephrase that please.

I did.

 

[Said1]

But............

Money talks, bullshit walks. The Saudi's have money! The oil WILL ship. Watch and see.

Of course it will. However, they can't control the cost of getting it out of the Gulf, when the region is unstable and dangerous. There are also other ports used for refuelling in Northern Africa where there is potential hostilities, making the entire endevour extremely risky. Watch and see. But, so far so good. Oil tankers don't seem to be targets at the moment.