InTrade's odds on Obama to win in 2012 is 60.5%, too high or too low?

[ElephantMcDonk]

9 of 11 incumbents have been reelected, 82%. The two that weren't, were unique circumstances that won't be duplicated in 2012.

Where are you getting these numbers?

There have been 11 re-election campaigns since FDR was elected in 1932:

2004 Bush beats Kerry 1 for 1
1996 Clinton beats Dole 2 for 2
1992 Clinton beats Bush 2 for 3 (incumbent loses)
1984 Reagan beats Mondale 3 for 4
1980 Reagan beats Carter 3 for 5 (incumbent loses)
1972 Nixon beats Mcgovern 4 for 6
1956 Eisenhower beats Stevenson 5 for 7
1948 Truman beats Dewey 6 for 8
1944 Roosevelt beats Dewey 7 for 9
1940 Roosevelt beats Willkie 8 for 10
1936 Roosevelt beats Landon 9 for 11

(number could be 10 of 13, I included Truman, but not LBJ or Ford)

One could argue that the number is really 7 for 9 because Roosevelt shouldn't count 3 times or maybe even 8 for 11 because Ford lost to Carter in 1976 and LBJ won in 1964. Even if that's the proper perspective, in order for any incumbent to lose, whether it was Ford, Carter, or Bush Sr. it required a very unique set of circumstances.

With regards to Bush and Carter, they got beat by better candidates, pure and simple. Reagan and Clinton were better and more charismatic than Bush Sr. or Carter. That won't happen against Obama, no matter who the Republican Party comes up with. On top of that, in both cases, the party was split. In Presidential elections, a few % can make all the difference. Perot took a chunk from Bush Sr. in 1992. Kennedy split the Dem party in 1980. There's almost no chance Obama will have either of the two issues that Carter and Bush had to deal with. Regarding Ford, eh, he was never elected in the first place and should've never been President. After Watergate and the way we exited Vietnam, anyone could've beaten him.

So, we're in a situation where in order to beat Obama in 2012, it's going to have to take a unique election. There's nothing for the GOP to try to duplicate from the past. On top of that, Congress will be GOP or more GOP than Dem anyway. The country generally prefers split power in most cases.

I think Obama's chances are in th 80%+ range. That said, it's probably not the worst situation for the GOP or our country. The GOP will hold the House and probably take the Senate. Obama will work with them and the only things that will get through are those things that are negotiated and bipartisan. Probably, best of both worlds, looking at the glass half full.