InTrade's odds on Obama to win in 2012 is 60.5%, too high or too low?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by ElephantMcDonk, Jan 26, 2011.

  1. ElephantMcDonk
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    ElephantMcDonk Member

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    InTrade's odds on Obama to win in 2012 is 60.5%, too high or too low?

    I know this message board is probably about 55% Pub/Tea, 30% Dem, 15% Indy, so I know what to expect in terms of answers...a lot of bias.

    But, we can parse through the jibber jabber and maybe get one decent post out of every 10 on this thread to add some valued thought and perspective. Do you think that number is too high or too low?

    I'd say, it's about right, maybe slightly low. I'd put the number at 60-65%. That's about the historical average of an incumbent. I'll explain my reasoning for my thought after I get some feedback as to what you all think.
     
  2. waltky
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    waltky Wise ol' monkey Supporting Member

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    Obama gettin' ready to run for re-election...
    :cool:
    Obama's plan to win 2012 presidential election takes shape
    February 8, 2011 Washington - President Obama's State of the Union, along with the speeches that have followed, point to a blend of Kennedy vision and Reagan optimism to 'win the future' and fend off GOP challengers in the 2012 presidential election.
     
  3. Claudette
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    Claudette Gold Member

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    No bias here EM.

    I think OL'BO will get re-elected if the economy is rockin and unemployment is significantly lowered. I also think the Reps need to have a good candidate if they hope to take back the WH.

    If the economy is still in the toilet, I think he will be a one termer.
     
  4. ElephantMcDonk
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    ElephantMcDonk Member

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    as i posted earlier, 9 of 11 reelection campaigns have been successful since FDR. The two that failed were GHW Bush vs Clinton in 1992 and Carter vs Reagan in 1984. Both were unique circumstances where you had a far superior candidate run against the incumbent and the incumbent was weakened by a third party. In Bush's case, Perot, who was actually on the ballot. In Carter's case by Kennedy, who split the party. The other 9 were successful bids. I don't see any scenario where Obama's 2012 campaign plays out similar to either of those. I think 60.5% is too low.
     
  5. NYcarbineer
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    NYcarbineer Diamond Member

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    Too low. Incumbency itself is a huge advantage, statistically.

    Another thing to consider is that there have almost never been 2 recessions in one presidency,

    and Obama has already had his.
     
  6. ElephantMcDonk
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    ElephantMcDonk Member

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    I agree. I think Romney is probably their only hope and he'd have to catch an inside straight. ie, Obama would have to have a very bad next 18 months and Romney would have to win the hearts and minds of both the right wing of his party that's weary of him and the center of the overall electorate. That's a lot to ask of a guy who promoted Obamacare before Obama, is Mormon, which a chunk of his party doesn't like, is seen as a flip-flopper by many, or fake to put it bluntly, and he's up against a guy who needs to be weaker politically than he currently is. I don't see anyone else that really presents a challenge. There are guys like Chris Christie, who could jump in, but I doubt it. The rest of the field is awful. I mean really awful. Like 1988 Democratic Field awful.
     
  7. NYcarbineer
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    NYcarbineer Diamond Member

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    That's another good point. The GOP lineup of potential candidates is shit, to put it bluntly.
     
  8. NYcarbineer
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    NYcarbineer Diamond Member

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    I also don't think there's much if any history of a 1st term president having a double dip into low approval numbers, and Obama has already had his.
     
  9. gautama
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    gautama BANNED

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    Elephantcrap......you are fucking insane. Period.
     
  10. ElephantMcDonk
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    ElephantMcDonk Member

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    9 of 11 incumbents have been reelected, 82%. The two that weren't, were unique circumstances that won't be duplicated in 2012. The way you choose to refute that point is to call me insane. Ok. Good one.
     

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