Interesting trend

Discussion in 'Congress' started by Silence, Sep 10, 2008.

  1. Silence
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    Silence wanna lick?

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    Makes me question the so called national polls and how accurate they are or if they mean anything.

    I'm more inclined to go by a state by state poll especially if we have historical evidence of which way the state leaned in past elections.

    Starting on Aug 29...the day McCain announced Palin as his running mate here is what the electoral college split has looked like

    8/29/08
    Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily

    Obama 278 McCain 247

    Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO IA NV NM GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None)

    8/30/08
    Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
    no change

    8/31/08
    no change

    9/1/08
    no change

    9/2/08 *begining of RNC*
    no change

    9/3/08
    no change

    9/4/08 McCain's speech
    Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily

    Obama 298 McCain 227 Ties 13

    Presidential polls today: IA MN OH
    Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO IA NV NM OH GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None)

    9/5/08
    Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
    Obama 301 McCain 224 Ties 13

    9/6/08
    no change

    9/7/08
    no change

    9/8/08
    no change

    9/9/08
    Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily

    Obama 281 McCain 230 Ties 27

    Obama had OH but it jumped to McCain barely and suddenly FL wasn't in McCain's camp but rather tied....


    Something of note however, McCain hasn't taken the lead even once or come close....Dems have seemingly picked up 6 states since 2004 while the GOP hasn't picked even one state.
     
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  2. Caligirl
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    Caligirl Oh yes it is too!

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    The 3 point (average) that McCain has, over Obama, would almost certainly go along with an electoral victory unless those voters are all in states that are red already. I wonder if the red states have gotten redder? And I wonder how many of the states in the electoral vote map have actually been polled since the RNC.

    I do notice that the RCP average has started (just barely) to drop back to even. So the palin bump seems to have maxedout.

    Also, I wonder if Sara stayed to campaign this week because McCain realized that his rallies were ten times bigger with hier.

    I think as she gets around to the swing states, some of them might start to tip right, but like you I'll be fine whoever is in the white house. Obama has more focus on issues, and is willing to work and invest in a better future (invest in education and health, etc). I will vote for him. But no matter who wins, we have a long road ahead.
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2008
  3. Chris
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    Chris Gold Member

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    When Palin and McCain have to talk without scripts, they are in trouble.

    You can only hide from the public for so long.
     
  4. Modbert
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    Modbert Daydream Believer Supporting Member

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    Sarah Palin did she was suppose to do, energize the base. However the way we vote in this country isn't popular vote (otherwise Dubya would of had never won the 1st time around).

    So all she really did was make the red states..more red. Any states that Obama might of lost by a decent average before, he'll lose big now.
     
  5. dilloduck
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    dilloduck Diamond Member

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    That's OK.
     
  6. Modbert
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    Modbert Daydream Believer Supporting Member

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    Not really considering Obama has for example the Hispanic vote in swing states.

    Obama either currently has the lead or is tied with McCain for the most part in such states.
     
  7. dilloduck
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    dilloduck Diamond Member

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    Why is that not OK ?
     
  8. Modbert
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    Modbert Daydream Believer Supporting Member

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    I'm saying it's good for the Democrats but bad for the Republicans.

    Personally I love the fact that Obama is ahead in most swing states.
     
  9. Jon
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    Jon The CPA

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    Again, I don't understand why you trust that site over one that uses an average of all the national polls?
     
  10. Silence
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    Silence wanna lick?

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    I'm not sure how you think that Cali.... Obama leads in electoral votes right now even with McCain's 3 point lead in the national polls.

    Obama would need to lose every state the Dems have gained and McCain would have to retain all the ones he's got right now AND pick up FL to flip this election.

    This is how it shakes out

    CO - iffy for obama - holds a slight lead 49% to 46% gone republican every year except 92 (9 EV)

    WA - never gone republican holds 49% to 45% lead (11 EV)

    NV - 47% to 44% Republican 2000/2004 Dem 1992/1996 so it's questionable (5 EV)

    ND - never gona Democrat 43% to 40% (3 EV)

    IA - solid 55% to 40% lead only went Repub in 2004 (7 EV)

    so Obama has almost 100% chance of getting WA, and IA which is 18 EV all he has to do is hold onto CO and/or ND/NV and he'll win even without FL
     

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