Interesting trend

[Silence]

Makes me question the so called national polls and how accurate they are or if they mean anything.

I'm more inclined to go by a state by state poll especially if we have historical evidence of which way the state leaned in past elections.

Starting on Aug 29...the day McCain announced Palin as his running mate here is what the electoral college split has looked like

8/29/08
Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily

Obama 278 McCain 247

Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO IA NV NM GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None)

8/30/08
Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
no change

8/31/08
no change

9/1/08
no change

9/2/08 *begining of RNC*
no change

9/3/08
no change

9/4/08 McCain's speech
Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily

Obama 298 McCain 227 Ties 13

Presidential polls today: IA MN OH
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO IA NV NM OH GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None)

9/5/08
Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
Obama 301 McCain 224 Ties 13

9/6/08
no change

9/7/08
no change

9/8/08
no change

9/9/08
Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily

Obama 281 McCain 230 Ties 27

Obama had OH but it jumped to McCain barely and suddenly FL wasn't in McCain's camp but rather tied....


Something of note however, McCain hasn't taken the lead even once or come close....Dems have seemingly picked up 6 states since 2004 while the GOP hasn't picked even one state.

 

[Caligirl]

The 3 point (average) that McCain has, over Obama, would almost certainly go along with an electoral victory unless those voters are all in states that are red already. I wonder if the red states have gotten redder? And I wonder how many of the states in the electoral vote map have actually been polled since the RNC.

I do notice that the RCP average has started (just barely) to drop back to even. So the palin bump seems to have maxedout.

Also, I wonder if Sara stayed to campaign this week because McCain realized that his rallies were ten times bigger with hier.

I think as she gets around to the swing states, some of them might start to tip right, but like you I'll be fine whoever is in the white house. Obama has more focus on issues, and is willing to work and invest in a better future (invest in education and health, etc). I will vote for him. But no matter who wins, we have a long road ahead.

 

[Chris]

When Palin and McCain have to talk without scripts, they are in trouble.

You can only hide from the public for so long.

 

[Modbert]

The 3 point (average) that McCain has, over Obama, would almost certainly go along with an electoral victory unless those voters are all in states that are red already. I wonder if the red states have gotten redder? And I wonder how many of the states in the electoral vote map have actually been polled since the RNC.

I do notice that the RCP average has started (just barely) to drop back to even. So the palin bump seems to have maxedout.

Also, I wonder if Sara stayed to campaign this week because McCain realized that his rallies were ten times bigger with hier.

I think as she gets around to the swing states, some of them might start to tip right, but like you I'll be fine whoever is in the white house. Obama has more focus on issues, and is willing to work and invest in a better future (invest in education and health, etc). I will vote for him. But no matter who wins, we have a long road ahead.

Sarah Palin did she was suppose to do, energize the base. However the way we vote in this country isn't popular vote (otherwise Dubya would of had never won the 1st time around).

So all she really did was make the red states..more red. Any states that Obama might of lost by a decent average before, he'll lose big now.

 

[dilloduck]

Sarah Palin did she was suppose to do, energize the base. However the way we vote in this country isn't popular vote (otherwise Dubya would of had never won the 1st time around).

So all she really did was make the red states..more red. Any states that Obama might of lost by a decent average before, he'll lose big now.

That's OK.

 

[Modbert]

That's OK.

Not really considering Obama has for example the Hispanic vote in swing states.

Obama either currently has the lead or is tied with McCain for the most part in such states.

 

[dilloduck]

Not really considering Obama has for example the Hispanic vote in swing states.

Obama either currently has the lead or is tied with McCain for the most part in such states.

Why is that not OK ?

 

[Modbert]

Why is that not OK ?

I'm saying it's good for the Democrats but bad for the Republicans.

Personally I love the fact that Obama is ahead in most swing states.

 

[Jon]

Again, I don't understand why you trust that site over one that uses an average of all the national polls?

 

[Silence]

The 3 point (average) that McCain has, over Obama, would almost certainly go along with an electoral victory unless those voters are all in states that are red already. I wonder if the red states have gotten redder? And I wonder how many of the states in the electoral vote map have actually been polled since the RNC.

I do notice that the RCP average has started (just barely) to drop back to even. So the palin bump seems to have maxedout.

Also, I wonder if Sara stayed to campaign this week because McCain realized that his rallies were ten times bigger with hier.

I think as she gets around to the swing states, some of them might start to tip right, but like you I'll be fine whoever is in the white house. Obama has more focus on issues, and is willing to work and invest in a better future (invest in education and health, etc). I will vote for him. But no matter who wins, we have a long road ahead.

I'm not sure how you think that Cali.... Obama leads in electoral votes right now even with McCain's 3 point lead in the national polls.

Obama would need to lose every state the Dems have gained and McCain would have to retain all the ones he's got right now AND pick up FL to flip this election.

This is how it shakes out

CO - iffy for obama - holds a slight lead 49% to 46% gone republican every year except 92 (9 EV)

WA - never gone republican holds 49% to 45% lead (11 EV)

NV - 47% to 44% Republican 2000/2004 Dem 1992/1996 so it's questionable (5 EV)

ND - never gona Democrat 43% to 40% (3 EV)

IA - solid 55% to 40% lead only went Repub in 2004 (7 EV)

so Obama has almost 100% chance of getting WA, and IA which is 18 EV all he has to do is hold onto CO and/or ND/NV and he'll win even without FL

 

[dilloduck]

I'm saying it's good for the Democrats but bad for the Republicans.

Personally I love the fact that Obama is ahead in most swing states.

Dont forget about the GOP cheats, dude. I hate to see you get your hopes up !
DIEBOLD !

 

[editec]

Again, I don't understand why you trust that site over one that uses an average of all the national polls?

Because one doesn't win the election based on national tallies, probably.

One wins electors and most state (except two) give ALL their electors to the winner even if the election was extrmely close.

So the swing states become far far more important to winning the election than any state which is solidly red or blue.

I think the electoral college system is a bad idea, personally.

But its existence does give political scientists work every four years, I'll give it that.

 

[Modbert]

Dont forget about the GOP cheats, dude. I hate to see you get your hopes up !
DIEBOLD !

Oh I haven't forgotten about Diebold. The 2004 election is a great reminder of that.

 

[Ninja]

Douglas Wilder.

 

[Silence]

Dont forget about the GOP cheats, dude. I hate to see you get your hopes up !
DIEBOLD !

the sad fact is that's the truth.

will we have another stolen election? and if we do what will happen to this country?

I don't like the electoral college system either... I think every vote should count and our elected officals should be put in office by popular vote... ie: majority rules..

 

[dilloduck]

Oh I haven't forgotten about Diebold. The 2004 election is a great reminder of that.

Well--have you actually DONE SOMETHING ABOUT IT----Shit doesn't just happen because you talk about it !

 

[Modbert]

Well--have you actually DONE SOMETHING ABOUT IT----Shit doesn't just happen because you talk about it !

What do you mean done something about it?

In 2004: I was 13 years old but still very up to date on stuff like this.

In 2008 at this time: I'm 17 years old, will barely miss being able to vote.

So if you mean do something about it by voting, I would if I could.

If you mean by getting the information about things like Diebold out there and why Barack should be President? I already have been doing so.

 

[DiamondDave]

the sad fact is that's the truth.

will we have another stolen election? and if we do what will happen to this country?

I don't like the electoral college system either... I think every vote should count and our elected officals should be put in office by popular vote... ie: majority rules..

Every vote does count

But there was a reason that each branch of the government is selected a different way... the legislative branch is the branch elected by pure popular vote... the electoral college for the executive branch grants the individual states a bit more power in that part of the selection process, so that the smaller states are now having their voices drowned out by the urban areas. So that the state as a whole can state that this is who we the people of XXXX have chosen as our best candidate. In this way their voices are more likely to be heard.

And as for "stolen" election... ... still as much a load of bullprunes as when we first started hearing it (cue conspiracy theory blog linking from kirk/chris, bobo, or OJ)

 

[del]

You can only hide from the public for so long.

why don't you start now? we'll let you know when the coast is clear.

 

[dilloduck]

What do you mean done something about it?

In 2004: I was 13 years old but still very up to date on stuff like this.

In 2008 at this time: I'm 17 years old, will barely miss being able to vote.

So if you mean do something about it by voting, I would if I could.

If you mean by getting the information about things like Diebold out there and why Barack should be President? I already have been doing so.

Is there some law that says you cannot act on what you think is fraud until you are 18 ?
EVERYONE knows about it----who in the hell do you think you are--Paul Revere?