Intelligence Failure or what?

[dijetlo]

Does anybody know with any certainty exactly what the NSC/Pentagon/DIA/CIA told President Bush prior to the invasion about WMDs' in Iraq? Did did they predict this outcome (no WMDs/organized assymetrical warfare developing in opposition to the occupation) or is this an intelligence failure on the order of magnitude of 9/11?

 

[jimnyc]

Originally posted by dijetlo
Does anybody know with any certainty exactly what the NSC/Pentagon/DIA/CIA told President Bush prior to the invasion about WMDs' in Iraq? Did did they predict this outcome (no WMDs/organized assymetrical warfare developing in opposition to the occupation) or is this an intelligence failure on the order of magnitude of 9/11?

Not with certainty, but I doubt you'll see the actual documents any time soon as they are a matter or national security.

I'm guessing some of it was from intel, and some from informants. Even if there's a chance that an informant is incorrect, it's much too risky to just ignore it. They wouldn't allow full follow ups on these places and there was proof that they were moving things around. Does this mean they hid some WMD? Not definitively, but I wouldn't want to sit back and find out the hard way.

 

[jimnyc]

Almost forgot!

Welcome to the board, dijetlo!

 

[dijetlo]

Thanks I've read through a couple threads and enjoyed the relaxed and civil atmosphere, seems like a good board.

While I agree that the intel community got informants from Iraq prior to the invasion, I would hope that they would make some efforts to verify their claims (such as their efforts to verify the Niger claim with Amb. Wilson).
The reason I find this interesting is that I've not heard the administration point to an intelligence failure as the root cause of their problem (no WMDs'). We were convinced to go to war based on claims of a WMD threat, the fact that Iraq had no WMDs' seems to bring the purpose of invasion (and therefor the goals) into question.
It also strikes me as strange that the CIA requested the A.G. to investigate the Whitehouse, has that ever happened before in the history of the US? I realize that question is a little off topic but it just leads me to wonder exactly what is going on between the administration and its' intelligence community.
>>Even if there's a chance that an informant is incorrect, it's much too risky to just ignore it. They wouldn't allow full follow ups on these places and there was proof that they were moving things around.<<
We have a sattelite parked in orbit above Iraq, watching it 24/7. Its' had US bases to the north and west of it since 91. The Bush administration was talking mushroom clouds, did he have any solid intelligence about this or was he just trying to frighten us?
I hope you agree that informants do not represent sufficient grounds for invasion of a foriegn nation, informants often have their own political axes to grind, the Iraqi National Congress being a glaring example of this.