Inside advantage poll shows Newt in lead in Florida by +8

[ScienceRocks]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/InsiderAdvantage_FL_0122.pdf


Florida Republican Presidential Primary

Insider Advantage

Romney 26, Gingrich 34, Santorum 11, Paul 13, Perry

Gingrich +8

If Newt wins Florida by this much. IT'S OVER!

 

[Oddball]

How much of a lead did the polls say Romney had in SC a week ago?

 

[Lakhota]

Check out this RCP poll...

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida Republican Presidential Primary

 

[oreo]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/InsiderAdvantage_FL_0122.pdf


Florida Republican Presidential Primary

Insider Advantage

Romney 26, Gingrich 34, Santorum 11, Paul 13, Perry

Gingrich +8

If Newt wins Florida by this much. IT'S OVER!

There's a problem in FLORIDA--that is going to be very difficult for Newt to overcome. They mailed out their mail-in ballots about 2 weeks ago--and according to many--200K of those ballots have already been returned--and most likely prior to this huge S. Carolina win--and the debates last week. And we all know that Romney has been hitting this state hard with negative adds for at least the last month.

IOW--Newt Gingrich will have a lot of ground he needs to make up in Florida--and we can only hope--that many of those Florida voters held onto their ballots along with their decisions.

But yes--I would love to see Newt Gingrich win Florida--but I just don't expect it--because of their early voting procedures.

But who knows--MIRACLES can happen--it sure did in S. Carolina on Saturday.

Gingrich in red--Romney in yellow

 

[oreo]

How much of a lead did the polls say Romney had in SC a week ago?

18 points

 

[Oddball]

How much of a lead did the polls say Romney had in SC a week ago?

18 points

Uh-huh....IOW, the polls don't mean jack.

 

[oreo]

Check out this RCP poll...

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida Republican Presidential Primary

Early voting procedures in Florida would be the reason Newt Gingrich wouldn't win. These ballots went out a couple of weeks ago--prior to the S. Carolina win and the debates last week--plus Romney has been hitting this state hard with negative ads for at least the last month.

However, if Floridians held onto their ballots Newt may be able to pull this one out.

 

[Article 15]

How much of a lead did the polls say Romney had in SC a week ago?

About 7 or 8 points.

 

[Article 15]

How much of a lead did the polls say Romney had in SC a week ago?

18 points

on 1/14 it was just under 5 and on 1/15 it was just over 7

 

[oreo]

How much of a lead did the polls say Romney had in SC a week ago?

18 points

Uh-huh....IOW, the polls don't mean jack.

No--it's this that matters--and what put Newt Gingrich back into this race with a huge win in S. Carolina. This kind of performance during a debate will get you 18 points & more within a week.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ka0LMt5ciRc]Newt Gingrich's Standing Ovation at South Carolina GOP Debate - YouTube[/ame]

 

[Missourian]

Check out this RCP poll...

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida Republican Presidential Primary

Wow... in a week Romney went from +24 to -8.

 

[oreo]

Check out this RCP poll...

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida Republican Presidential Primary

This poll doesn't mean anything--they still have Perry and Huntsman in it?--LOL

 

[Avatar4321]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/InsiderAdvantage_FL_0122.pdf


Florida Republican Presidential Primary

Insider Advantage

Romney 26, Gingrich 34, Santorum 11, Paul 13, Perry

Gingrich +8

If Newt wins Florida by this much. IT'S OVER!

You mean like it was over when Romney won NH?

Sheesh, If Florida supports Newt, yeah he has momentum. But thats 4/50 states voting yet. Nothing is over yet.

 

[oreo]

Check out this RCP poll...

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida Republican Presidential Primary

Wow... in a week Romney went from +24 to -8.

Well this is not surprising. After all--we have seen that conservatives are starving for a conservative candidate--and Mitt Romney has never been able to get over 25-30% of the vote.

Romney is stuck there--so they found a conservative candidate in Newt Gingrich and overwhelmingly supported him in S. Carolina even after the kitchen sink was thrown at him. HE WON it all. He won the female vote--the evangelical vote--the male vote--the independent vote--and the tea party conservative vote.

 

[oreo]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/InsiderAdvantage_FL_0122.pdf


Florida Republican Presidential Primary

Insider Advantage

Romney 26, Gingrich 34, Santorum 11, Paul 13, Perry

Gingrich +8

If Newt wins Florida by this much. IT'S OVER!

You mean like it was over when Romney won NH?

Sheesh, If Florida supports Newt, yeah he has momentum. But thats 4/50 states voting yet. Nothing is over yet.

Agreed--this is going to be a very long process now. I don't expect we'll have a nominee until April or May--maybe even longer than that.

 

[Oddball]

18 points

Uh-huh....IOW, the polls don't mean jack.

No--it's this that matters--and what put Newt Gingrich back into this race with a huge win in S. Carolina. This kind of performance during a debate will get you 18 points & more within a week.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ka0LMt5ciRc]Newt Gingrich's Standing Ovation at South Carolina GOP Debate - YouTube[/ame]

BFD.

He's just as liable to ingest both feet in the coming week.

 

[Article 15]

I'm very curious to see what happens in the aftermath if Newt wins big in Florida.

 

[Lakhota]

Republican Convention Has '50-50' Chance Of Being Open: Former GOP Chair

 

[Charles_Main]

It all Depends on the Debates. Romney needs to Step it up or Newt will Blow him out in Florida.

 

[Liability]

How much of a lead did the polls say Romney had in SC a week ago?

It aint ovah until it's ovah!

A sound observation.

Oddball, when you can spare it for a while, I'd like to borrow the brain.

Thanks.