Informal economic indicators

william the wie

Gold Member
Nov 18, 2009
16,667
2,402
280
Preliminary Christmas logistics reports do not look good. Trucks, trains and tugs are carrying very few toys.

The foreclosure mess is so bad that the banking industry is requesting a national property registry to evade state and local taxes. If Obama has two functioning neurons then the only way that bill will get his signature is as part of a must pass bill passed after the GOP house majority gets sworn in. But it is debatable whether such a bill can ever make it out of committee in either house.

Ireland and China are both in trouble of different sorts. The conjoint bet that China and the PIIGS can both deleverage without dropping Gross World Product is not a bet I would make.

Informal economic measures of female libido seem to indicate that women are not too thrilled with having kids in this economic environment. Skirt length, sales of sexier bras and how hot the waitress is at low end restaurants all seem to indicate that the female consensus is that the economy sucks.

So what other informal indicators of future economic returns are out there?
 
We have done nothing at all to prevent the economic problems of the recent past from happening again.

We have learned nothing yet.
 
We have done nothing at all to prevent the economic problems of the recent past from happening again.

We have learned nothing yet.
Absolutely. I am trying to figure out whether to go all in on Dec 11 index puts or just stick with straddles. I find the market and economy quite confusing. In fact I am wondering if LSD has made it into the DC and NYC water supply.
 
Amazing how some culture cut back on breeding in bad times, and some just keep breeding like crazy.

Yeah well just address that to Israeli Jews and they will tell you that Palestinians are winning their war despite all odds due to a birth rate more than twice that of the Jews.

And the same is true of illegal aliens within the US and most third world nations.

The race doesn't always go to the smartest, wealthiest or most educated. Sometimes the race is won by those who are prohibited from using condoms by the Pope himself.
 
When was China or India ever under the influence of the Pope?
Don't know about the pope but China and India are well below replacement birth rates and given gender skewing in birthrates both countries are becoming net importers of mail order brides.
 
All politics is local. - Tip O'Neil

In this area which is primarily a mixture of us geriatric retirees and second homes for the well heeled out of Memphis, I have never seen so many "For Sale" signs in all the years I have been coming here.

Repo'd boats litter the area.

The local watercraft dealer went Bankrupt.

My good friend, the Local Airport Manager, was almost in tears over the number of applicants she had for a part time, no benefits, 10/hr position.

She told me she had no idea it (the economy) was that bad.

The established bars and eateries hereabouts are managing to hang on due to their regulars but everyone who has tried to make a go of opening a new bar or eatery has gone under since 2008.

Buckle up and hold on. There is still along way to go to the "bottom."
 
Retailers are expecting a huge holiday season - According to ICSC they are forecasting the largest holiday sales in a long time and are predicting and increase of between 2.3 percent to 4.5 percent.

Jollier holiday retail sales forecast | HeraldTribune.com
Reading your link it sounded like a forecast for FL not the US. Yeah most of well to do of Latin America is coming north to buy properties cheap in greater Miami, then go to Daytona/Orlando and stock up for Three Kings day before heading home. So Florida is cool but what does that have to do with the rest of the country?
 
We have done nothing at all to prevent the economic problems of the recent past from happening again.

We have learned nothing yet.
Absolutely. I am trying to figure out whether to go all in on Dec 11 index puts or just stick with straddles. I find the market and economy quite confusing. In fact I am wondering if LSD has made it into the DC and NYC water supply.

straddle...don't make a forward move until congress re-adjourns ( in jan) and we see what the tax status will be asw ell. my 2 cents.

the market has been choking for 2 months now, narrow range, the techs have petered out, cisco put paid to that. dell blows.

I to read an article on train tonnage, low, and has been for the last quarter which is a leading indy of course because they order and stock ahead.

this season they will take 1.5% and declare victory, see people shopped!!!! BUT any revenue will be due to massive low margin profits. the media never make the delineation so ....
 
We have done nothing at all to prevent the economic problems of the recent past from happening again.

We have learned nothing yet.
Absolutely. I am trying to figure out whether to go all in on Dec 11 index puts or just stick with straddles. I find the market and economy quite confusing. In fact I am wondering if LSD has made it into the DC and NYC water supply.

straddle...don't make a forward move until congress re-adjourns ( in jan) and we see what the tax status will be asw ell. my 2 cents.

the market has been choking for 2 months now, narrow range, the techs have petered out, cisco put paid to that. dell blows.

I to read an article on train tonnage, low, and has been for the last quarter which is a leading indy of course because they order and stock ahead.

this season they will take 1.5% and declare victory, see people shopped!!!! BUT any revenue will be due to massive low margin profits. the media never make the delineation so ....
I suspect that you are 100% right on the US economy barring foreign shocks but I think that foreign shocks are going to hit and hit hard only I am not sure which way.
 

Forum List

Back
Top