Inflation is back

Wiseacre

Retired USAF Chief
Apr 8, 2011
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San Antonio, TX
In today's San Antonio Express News there's a story about a local clothes making business that is feeling the pinch of rising cotton prices. She pretty much has to pass most of the price increase on down to her customers, because there's no way to cut enough costs anywhere else. The National Cotton Council of America says the proce of a pound of cotton has gone up to nearly $2.30/lb from $.86/lb a year ago. Some of that is due to bad weather, and increased demand, and some is due to farmers switching to corn for ethanol production. And some is due to the falling value of the dollar, courtesy of the the Fed's QE2 policy. We import some cotton you know, and it's more expensive these days to do that.

The link below describes rising prices in other basic commodities, such as beef, pork, grains, diapers, and paper products, at a time when wages are not going up much if at all. Seems obvious that the spin we're getting from the Fed and the WH that inflation is under control is somewhat suspect.




http://finance.yahoo.com/banki...od=bb-budgeting



Then there's this snippet from Newsweek, which notes that the vauleof the US dollar is down 17% relative to other currencies since 2009.


" To this, the Fed has a stock response. It points to the all-urban consumer price index (CPI-U) and notes that it was up only 2.7 percent in March relative to the same month a year earlier. Strip out the costs of food and energy, and "core CPI"—the Fed’s preferred measure—is just 1.2 percent. When Google unveils its new index of online prices, it’s likely to tell a similar story

And the reason the CPI is losing credibility is that, as economist John Williams tirelessly points out, it’s a bogus index. The way inflation is calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been "improved" 24 times since 1978. If the old methods were still used, the CPI would actually be 10 percent. Yes, folks, double-digit inflation is back. Pretty soon you’ll be able to figure out the real inflation rate just by moving the decimal point in the core CPI one place to the right. "





http://www.newsweek.com/2011/0...cker-shock.html
 
Yep, people have been saying that for nearly a year now, anyone that buys groceries knows inflation has taken hold. Now add on the fuel costs that will also fall onto the consumer and 10% seems low.

It's this disconnect between what our eyes tell us and what the government via the media tell us, that results in people saying we're in a depression, not recession, certainly no recovery.
 
Baghdad-Ben.jpg
 
Despite the Feds best efforts to the contrary,people still want to make money,and expand their well being.
We would be in far worse shape if wasn't for the free minded sprite of American people so far.Why would we take the word from DC about most anything economic,after all their record speaks for its self.
 
Ya would think that just about evry metal known is selling at near record prices,that would tip them off about several things.
 
Yep, people have been saying that for nearly a year now, anyone that buys groceries knows inflation has taken hold. Now add on the fuel costs that will also fall onto the consumer and 10% seems low.

It's this disconnect between what our eyes tell us and what the government via the media tell us, that results in people saying we're in a depression, not recession, certainly no recovery.

Groceries are up a lot. My weekly bill is up at least 15% in the last 4 months.
 
The old way of measuring inflation was to first name a market, then list a basket of goods that speaks for most of it, and finally compare today's transacted prices to those of some day in the past.

Seems that most pundits these days prefer just saying we got hyperinflation as it sells better to the rant/self-pity crowd.
 
The old way of measuring inflation was to first name a market, then list a basket of goods that speaks for most of it, and finally compare today's transacted prices to those of some day in the past..

Do you have an example of that? I know that until 1978 BLS published specific items used, but the items lists went away in favor of covering a broader spectrum of goods. But I can't find any specific example of what you're saying as even in 1974, the earliest I found), the report still did an index and not actual prices for individual items.
 
....you have an example of that? I know that until 1978 BLS published specific items used, but the items lists went away....

There are so many tools out there ranging from the broadest with the entire US economy (the BEA's GDP deflator), narrowing down to the Fed's home price index (USSTHPI).

Sounds like you're talking about the CPI-U and for that one index alone their site gets into tens of thousands of prices of changing items for a sampling of about 15k families. We're talking about every month millions of price records averaged into tens of thousands of items for hundreds of categories to dozens of indexes that can go back a hundred years. For me the problem isn't withheld info, it's more like info-flood.

Contrast that clarity with the phony rants posted above from Newsweak:

...the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been "improved" 24 times since 1978. If the old methods were still used, the CPI would actually be 10 percent...

http://www.newsweek.com/2011/0...cker-shock.html

Don't hold your breath on getting any price lists on that the "10 percent" number they dreamed up. Something else they lied --OK, were mistaken with was how many times the CPI's been revised. The BLS list of revisions in the pdf at this site goes on for four pages describing how it's been evolving since day one in 1919.
 

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