India and China: A Himalayan rivalry

[Modbert]

India and China: A Himalayan rivalry | The Economist

MEMORIES of a war between India and China are still vivid in the Tawang valley, a lovely, cloud-blown place high on the south-eastern flank of the Himalayas. They are nurtured first by the Indian army, humiliated in 1962 when the People’s Liberation Army swept into Tawang from next-door Tibet. India now has three army corps—about 100,000 troops—in its far north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, which includes Tawang.

Since re-establishing diplomatic ties in 1976, after a post-war pause, they and their relationship have in many ways been transformed. The 1962 war was an act of Chinese aggression most obviously springing from China’s desire for western Aksai Chin, a lofty plain linking Xinjiang to Tibet. But its deeper causes included a famine in China and economic malaise in both countries. China and India are now the world’s fastest-growing big economies, however, and in a year or two, when India overtakes Japan on a purchasing-power-parity basis, they will be the world’s second- and third-biggest. And as they grow, Asia’s giants have come closer.

Their two-way trade is roaring: only $270m in 1990, it is expected to exceed $60 billion this year. They are also tentatively co-operating, for their mutual enrichment, in other ways: for example, by co-ordinating their bids for the African oil supplies that both rely on. Given their contrasting economic strengths—China’s in manufacturing, India’s in services—some see an opportunity for much deeper co-operation. There is even a word for this vision, “Chindia”. On important international issues, notably climate-change policy and world trade, their alignment is already imposing.

Yet China and India are in many ways rivals, not Asian brothers, and their relationship is by any standard vexed—as recent quarrelling has made abundantly plain. If you then consider that they are, despite their mutual good wishes, old enemies, bad neighbours and nuclear powers, and have two of the world’s biggest armies—with almost 4m troops between them—this may seem troubling.

Solid article. Thoughts USMB?

 

[ekrem]

I don't believe in any hostile relations for the foreseeable future.
Hostile relations at this point would mean diverting money and ressources desperately needed in development-sphere into containment of the other.
They would position a foot for each other to fall over, with none of them benefiting -- only the "Sick men's from West".

Both will trade and seek stability in their region so economic development is not minimized through instability.

 

[britishbulldog]

I don't believe in any hostile relations for the foreseeable future.
Hostile relations at this point would mean diverting money and ressources desperately needed in development-sphere into containment of the other.
They would position a foot for each other to fall over, with none of them benefiting -- only the "Sick men's from West".

Both will trade and seek stability in their region so economic development is not minimized through instability.

We should take every opportunity to create the conditions for a war between India and China, even if that means arming both sides.

China will definitely nuke the living daylights out of India, but India should be able to inflict at least some damage upon China.

A damaged China serves our interests.

 

[Colin]

I don't believe in any hostile relations for the foreseeable future.
Hostile relations at this point would mean diverting money and ressources desperately needed in development-sphere into containment of the other.
They would position a foot for each other to fall over, with none of them benefiting -- only the "Sick men's from West".

Both will trade and seek stability in their region so economic development is not minimized through instability.

We should take every opportunity to create the conditions for a war between India and China, even if that means arming both sides.

China will definitely nuke the living daylights out of India, but India should be able to inflict at least some damage upon China.

A damaged China serves our interests.

Seems you want to start wars throughout most of the world. You'll of course be cheering from the safety of your armchair!

 

[britishbulldog]

We must not allow China to rise above us.

We should use India to fight China.

I don't give a dam about China's response to India. The Indians never liked us anyway.

Even if India is oblliterated, as long as China is weakened, that is all that matters.

God bless UK and USA. And screw the rest of the world!!!

 

[hipeter924]

I don't believe in any hostile relations for the foreseeable future.
Hostile relations at this point would mean diverting money and ressources desperately needed in development-sphere into containment of the other.
They would position a foot for each other to fall over, with none of them benefiting -- only the "Sick men's from West".

Both will trade and seek stability in their region so economic development is not minimized through instability.

We should take every opportunity to create the conditions for a war between India and China, even if that means arming both sides.

China will definitely nuke the living daylights out of India, but India should be able to inflict at least some damage upon China.

A damaged China serves our interests.

Seems you want to start wars throughout most of the world. You'll of course be cheering from the safety of your armchair!

 

[britishbulldog]

Seems you want to start wars throughout most of the world. You'll of course be cheering from the safety of your armchair!

I like my armchair.

 

[editec]

If Indian and China are not run by nuts (and I don't think they are) I doubt that they'll allow these border disputes to turn into serious conflict.

Ultimately they might find themselves at serious odds with each other, but I doubt that the territorial disputes are important enough for those to be the issue.

Its the WORLDS resources, not merely the boarders where China and India (and everybody else, too) will ultimately find themselves at odds with their neighbors.

 

[waltky]

India has lost nearly 2,000 square kilometers to the PLA’s encroachments...

China is grabbing Himalayan land
Sun, Jun 18, 2017 - Bite by kilometer-size bite, China is eating away at India’s Himalayan borderlands. For decades, Asia’s two giants have fought a bullet-less war for territory along their high-altitude border. However, recently, China has become more assertive, underscoring the need for a new Indian containment strategy. On average, China launches one stealth incursion into India every 24 hours.

Indian Minister of State for Home Affairs Kiren Rijiju said the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is actively intruding into vacant border space with the objective of occupying it. And according to a former Indian Intelligence Bureau top official, India has lost nearly 2,000km2 to the PLA’s encroachments over the past decade. The strategy underlying China’s actions is more remarkable than their scope. On land, like at sea, China uses civilian resources — herders, farmers and grazers — as the tip of the spear. Once civilians settle on contested land, army troops gain control of the disputed area, paving the way for the establishment of more permanent encampments or observation posts.

Similarly, in the South China Sea, China’s naval forces follow fishermen to carve out space for the reclamation of rocks or reefs. In both theaters, China has deployed no missiles, drones or bullets to advance its objectives. China’s non-violent terrestrial aggression has garnered less opposition than its blue-water ambition, which has been challenged by the US and under international law, albeit with little effect. Indian leaders have at times even seemed to condone China’s actions. During a recent panel discussion in Russia, for example, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that although China and India are at odds over borders, it was remarkable that “in the last 40 years, not a single bullet has been fired because of [it].” The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded by praising Modi’s “positive remarks.”

Moreover, Modi’s predecessor, Manmohan Singh, used to claim that in their 5,000-year history, India and China fought only one war, in 1962. What this rose-tinted history failed to acknowledge was that China and India became neighbors only after China annexed the buffer, Tibet, in 1951. Given India’s accommodating rhetoric, it is easy to view the nation as a paper tiger. While Modi has used the phrase “inch toward miles” as the motto of India-China cooperation, the PLA has continued its cynical territorial aggrandizement by translating that slogan into incremental advance. After spending so many years on the defensive, India must retake the narrative. The first order of business is to abandon the platitudes. Modi’s calls for border peace and tranquility might be sincere, but his tone has made India look like a meek enabler.

China’s fast-growing trade surplus with India, which has doubled to almost US$60 billion on Modi’s watch, has increased Chinese President Xi Jinping’s territorial assertiveness. The absence of clarity about the frontier — China reneged on a 2001 promise to exchange maps with India — serves as cover for the PLA’s aggression, with China denying all incursions and claiming that its troops are operating on “Chinese land.” However, by acquiescing on bilateral trade — the dumping of Chinese-made steel on the Indian market is just one of many examples — India has inadvertently helped foot the bill for the PLA’s encirclement strategy.

MORE[/url

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2017/06/18/2003672767

 

[waltky]

Granny says, "Dat's right - dem Chinamens gonna take over the world...

China-India border spat casts shadow ahead of BRICS summit
August 2, 2017 - China is taking an increasingly tough line on a border row with India amid a rising crescendo of nationalism in state media, and President Xi Jinping looks set for an awkward encounter with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a multilateral summit next month.

Diplomats say Beijing would like to resolve the border issue before a summit of the BRICS nations - that also groups Brazil, Russia and South Africa - in the Chinese city of Xiamen in early September, and ensure nothing dampens what China wants to be a show of cooperation and friendship among developing countries. But that could be tough. On Wednesday, China ramped up the rhetoric, accusing India of "concocting" excuses over the illegal entry of the South Asian nation's military into Chinese territory. "China will take all necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate and lawful rights and interests," the Foreign Ministry said.

The two sides' troops are confronting each other close to a valley controlled by China that separates India from its close ally, Bhutan, and gives China access to the so-called Chicken's Neck, a thin strip of land connecting India and its remote northeastern regions. Responding, India reiterated an earlier line that work by a Chinese road crew in the sensitive frontier area would have changed the status quo and urging "utmost restraint" by all sides. "India considers that peace and tranquillity in the India-China border areas is an important pre-requisite for smooth development of our bilateral relations with China," New Delhi's foreign ministry said in a statement on Wednesday evening.

Most previous standoffs, such as one in 2014 just ahead of a rare trip to India for Xi, were resolved with both sides withdrawing their forces. There has been no shooting since a brief border war in 1962. Talks are happening behind the scenes, but with little apparent progress. Meantime, Chinese and India media have been taking a strident approach, with a Chinese state-run newspaper last week saying China could use force.

An Indian magazine's front cover last month showing a map of China shorn of Tibet and self-ruled Taiwan also ignited public anger on Chinese social media with thousands of angry posts. "The problem is the media on both sides are whipping things up. This makes it hard for China or India to back down," said a Beijing-based source who is familiar with the discussions between the two sides. The Indian government has asked political parties to refrain from politicizing the issue and allow diplomacy to work.
"Show What We Are Made of"

See also:

Chinese President Oversees Military Show of Strength
30 Jul 2017 | China's president Xi Jinping emphasized the combat readiness of the People's Liberation Army, long criticized as corrupt.

China's military has the "confidence and capability" to bolster the country's rise into a world power, President Xi Jinping said Sunday as he oversaw a large-scale military parade meant to show off the forces at his command to foreign and domestic audiences. Live state television broadcasts showed Xi, dressed in fatigues and speaking from an open-top jeep, telling his troops that China needed a strong military "more than ever" as it moved "closer to the goal of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation." Xi, who commands the People's Liberation Army (PLA) as chairman of the Central Military Commission, has frequently spoken of his "China Dream" to restore China to a leadership position in international affairs with a modern, far-reaching military force to match.

Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks at a July 30 military parade commemorating the 90th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army.​

The parade, held at the Zhurihe military training base in China's Inner Mongolia region, was also a sign domestically of how Xi has enhanced his control over the PLA, just as he has over every other political power base within the sprawling Communist Party, ahead of a pivotal party congress this autumn. A Communist Party "princeling" fond of deploying revolutionary lore and nationalistic rhetoric, Xi declared the PLA ready to defeat all "invading enemies" as he celebrated the 90th anniversary of the PLA's founding. It was the first time a parade has been held to mark the occasion. "We need to build a strong people's military more than any other time in history," Xi said as he inspected troops, armored vehicles, missiles and aircraft, hailing each formation by shouting "Comrades, you've worked hard!"

The forces addressed him as "Chairman Xi" as they rumbled past. The parade was blanketed by state media coverage and streamed for foreign audiences on YouTube, which is blocked inside China. On display were advanced weaponry, including a new Dongfeng-31AG variant of the nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile and the Dongfeng-21D "carrier killer." Several H-6K bombers, the long-range aircraft recently involved in exercises near Japan and the South China Sea, flew overhead. Xi has emphasized combat readiness for the PLA -- long criticized as a corrupt bureaucracy with scant combat experience -- and pushed for an ambitious modernization program to make it a leaner force capable of projecting power overseas.

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Related:

China's Indian Ocean Ambitions
24 Jul 2017 | Joseph V. Micallef is a best-selling military history and world affairs author, and keynote speaker. Follow him on Twitter@JosephVMicallef.

On July 11, Beijing dispatched Chinese troops from the port of Zhanjiang in Guangdong province with orders to begin "constructing the base at Djibouti." The announcement follows on a previous January 21 announcement of an agreement with Djibouti to host what the Chinese Foreign Ministry termed a "logistics and fast evacuation base." Widely described in the western media as China's first overseas base, the facility, still in the process of being constructed, stops short of being a full-fledged military base, but is widely interpreted as the first step in a significant build-up of Chinese military power in the Indian Ocean. Under the agreement with Djibouti, China can station up to 10,000 troops in its facility there, although the initial deployment will fall far short of that number. The new base comes on the heel of a $14 billion, Chinese financed railroad project, which links the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa with Djibouti, as well as an expansion of port facilities in Djibouti. The rail line represents Ethiopia's only direct transportation link to the Indian Ocean.

The Chinese facility is only a few miles away from the U.S. base at Camp Lemonnier. Although the U.S. maintains a range of small outposts and air facilities in Africa, Camp Lemonnier is the only fully operational American base on the African continent. The Chinese facility joins bases operated by Italy, France, Spain and Japan. In addition, Saudi Arabia has announced that it too will build a military base in Djibouti. Djibouti sits at a strategic location on the horn of Africa overlooking the Straits of Mandeb. Roughly 10 percent of the world's petroleum traffic and 20 percent of global trade traverse those straits. The Straits of Mandeb connect the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean and along with the Suez Canal is an important maritime route linking the Mediterranean Sea with the Indian Ocean. China's base in Djibouti is part of a broader dual strategy described by Beijing as "String of Pearls" and the "One Belt, One Road" (OBOR) that is at the heart of Beijing's aims in the Indian Ocean. The "String of Pearls" relates to China's plans to construct or expand port facilities in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Seychelles, Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Uncle Ferd says dat's dat 200 millions man Chinese army in formation​

Djibouti is a template for that expansion, one in which Chinese economic aid for the expansion of regional transportation links and port development are potentially the precursor to an expanded Chinese military presence. The Pakistani port of Gwadar in Pakistan's Baluchistan province, for example, has been largely built and is controlled by Chinese interests. In 2015, Islamabad agreed to lease the port facilities until 2059 to the state-owned China Overseas Port Holding Company.

The port sits on the Arabian Sea, astride the sea lanes that bring oil from the Persian Gulf to China. It is the most visible element of a broader, Chinese financed, $54 billion, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor designed to create transportation infrastructure and promote industrial development in Pakistan and especially in the province of Baluchistan. Although both Islamabad and Beijing have announced that there will not be a Chinese military presence in Gwadar, Chinese investment in port facilities in Sri Lanka, Greece, and now Djibouti, have been followed by regular visits of People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels and in the latter case, a long-term military facility.

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[anotherlife]

The China - Russia relationship is much more crucial. The only way to fight Putin and the BRICS is to make China take over Siberia. Without that, in 30 years the dollar will be a secondary currency under some BRICS basket and the Euro.

 

[Unkotare]

The China - Russia relationship is much more crucial. The only way to fight Putin and the BRICS is to make China take over Siberia. Without that, in 30 years the dollar will be a secondary currency under some BRICS basket and the Euro.

Not going to happen.

 

[waltky]

Granny says dem Chinamens is hackin' Vietnam's computers...

Chinese cyberspies broaden attacks in Vietnam: firm
Fri, Sep 01, 2017 - Cyberspies working for or on behalf of the Chinese government have broadened attacks against official and corporate targets in Vietnam at a time of raised tension over the South China Sea, cybersecurity company FireEye said.

FireEye told reporters the attacks happened in recent weeks and it had traced them to suspected Chinese cyberspies based partly on the fact that a Chinese group it had identified previously had used the same infrastructure before. “Where China has often focused on the [Vietnamese] government before, this shows they are really hitting the full commercial sector potentially in Vietnam and trying to gather a broad base of information there,” said Ben Read, who heads FireEye’s cyberespionage team.

FireEye said the attacks involved sending users documents in Vietnamese that appeared to be requests for financial information. When the user opened them, they delivered malware that could infect a computer and send back information to the cyberspies, potentially letting them into computer networks, too.

FireEye linked the attacks to a team it calls Conimes, because in the past it used the conimes.com domain. The team focuses on Southeast Asia, but its main target is Vietnam and even more so since tensions rose over the South China Sea, Read said.

He was unable to say exactly what data had been gathered. Read said the attacks it had discovered on Vietnam were relatively unsophisticated and relied on users having pre-2012 versions of Microsoft Word.“They are using comparatively simple techniques because apparently they work,” he said.

Chinese cyberspies broaden attacks in Vietnam: firm - Taipei Times

See also:

Retired general sentenced to eight months for spying
Sat, Sep 02, 2017 - The Supreme Court yesterday upheld a ruling sentencing retired major general Hou Shih-cheng (侯石城) to eight months in prison for trying to recruit military officials to develop a spy network for China. Hou was a commander in the Republic of China (ROC) Army, served as a section chief at the Office of the General Staff and held various posts in the army.

Hou was promoted to major general in 1999 and became commander of the army’s Armor Training Command, based in Hsinchu County, in 2006. After retiring in 2008, Hou started a business with the intention of expanding it into China. In July 2010, he visited the World Expo in Shanghai, where he met a Shanghai City Government official, surnamed Tang (唐), and a subordinate of Tang, surnamed Yang (楊), an investigation found. Tang said he was the head of the Shanghai City Government 12th Section Office and promised to help Hou’s business endeavors in China in exchange for Hou introducing him to Taiwanese military officials and developing a network, the probe found.

In November 2012, Hou took two colonels from the Armor Training Command on a golf trip to Malaysia, whose expenses were paid by Tang, the investigation said. Hou was paid 25,000 yuan (US$3,806 at the current exchange rate) by the Chinese side and was instructed to give 5,000 yuan each and expensive tea sets to the two colonels, surnamed Wang (王) and Liang (梁), the probe found. In January 2013, Hou took the two colonels to another all-expenses-paid trip to Kuala Lumpur, where they met with Tang and Yang. Wang and Liang said they refused the gifts presented by the Chinese officials, and also returned the 5,000 yuan to Hou, thinking they could be compromised by the money and gifts.

The colonels said Hou had given the Chinese officials some military materials, including their personal background and army service details. The investigation was launched after the colonels notified the authorities about Hou’s activities. Investigators put Hou under surveillance and wiretapped his telephone.

They found that Hou provided Chinese officials with information on Taiwanese military officials. The court found Hou guilty of trying to recruit military officials, passing on sensitive information to Chinese and trying to develop a spy network, which had undermined the nation’s security. Being a major general, Hou should be aware of China’s attempts to infiltrate the Taiwanese military, the court said.

Retired general sentenced to eight months for spying - Taipei Times