In case you missed that latest WikiLeaks cable...

[RGR]

I do not remember reading of two peaks in the article in the Houston Journal of Oil and Gas.

You have got to be kidding me. You didn't read the original research as published by Hubbert in 1956 yet you want to try and pretend you know something about it? Bad move. Go here. Read the original. Part of the entire ridiculous nature of peak oil revolves around the fact that peakers have a mythology, and they just run around repeating this nonsense they've heard, and it isn't even true.

Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels | Energy Bulletin

However, even if he had, the oil production did peak in 1971, and has been declining ever since. And the discoverys world wide peaked in the 60's. So, where are we going to get more oil as the present known fields are depleted?

More mythology. Global oil discovery hit its peak in 1935. The US has actually been producing more oil as of late, and we've been finding more oil in old oilfields than new ones at about a 3:1 ratio over the past couple of decades.

If you really want to understand how some of this works, and why, take a gander here.

JPT: The Next Trillion: Anticipating and Enabling Game-Changing Recoveries April06

 

[JiggsCasey]

And yet , when challenged to provide your "technical expertise" and quantify just what fracking entails, or how much has been produced, you run like a girl.

I did no such thing. I declined your generous offer based on the theory that throwing pearls (my knowledge) before the swine (you) would be a waste of effort. If you are too stupid to look up the basics via google and ask reasonable questions (which I do answer, for even the parrots), I have no desire to write a "textbook for parrots" which would fall under the explanation given above.

I don't need to look them up, turd blossom. I know what they ultimately entail. YOU are the smarmy self-congratulatory asshat who claimed shale gas was some game changer. Your perpetual reluctance to tackle the challenge presented to you screams of a poster who knows he's backed himself into a corner. You won't present the gas shale figures, because you know they don't amount to a hill of beans in terms of production.

Like westwall and samson before you, you've reached your peak relevance here. You pretended shale gas volume proves Hirsch wrong, yet when challenged to sum up just what shale gas means and amounts to, you dance, and obfuscate and deflect... Like the good, loyal industry insider that you are. LOL.

Then you just admitted world peak is here, because that is exactly what Husseini has said. Tool.

Realist. I always admit that the last peak is the current one. It tends to keep the parrots off balance, at least the ones who realize what arguments I have effectively neutralized by doing so. You do not appear to be in that class of parrot.

Oh yes, are you ever out of bullets. To review, you entered this forum admitting 1) you're an "arrogant prick," 2) light crude is quite finite, 3) People like Hubbert and al-Husseini are brilliant in their field.

Yet, in your desperate ploy to paint a picture of "peak is real, just not yet," you're left stammering all over yourself.

Global liquids production has essentially flat-lined the past 6 years. There is no amount of lipstick you can slap on that pig, and punting to unconventionals doesn't change that equation. Oops, sorry.

I know that's a reality that puts denialists like you on full-tilt, but that's the score. And the events in the world today bare that out with each passing day, as fuel subsidies shift, food prices rise, and Chindia pushes demand through the roof.

Sure peak happened. Lots of times. I'm pretty sure peak oil has happened in 3 different centuries now. Why are you getting your panties in such a wad about it? They were happening before you were born and didn't prevent the parrot population from increasing by at least one.

Intellectually dishonest as you are, it's vital to remember that the difference between then and today is that new discoveries of that cheap fuel are NOT keeping up with today's decline in existing capacity, by ANY measurement that does not include extra heavy crap that won't sustain growth. Any peak you can allude to in the past was countered by enormous new finds. You've yet to show any big new finds. That's because they don't exist, and your heroes HAVE to punt to unconventionals, and deep sea investment strain.

Unfortunately, (and I have little doubt you're aware of this fact) we haven't found a significant reservoir above 35-40 billion barrels in over 30 years. You can pretend there's 5 trillion barrels of light crude deep under the Atlantic Ocean, deep under the Rocky Mountains, or behind the moon all you like. That says nothing of the feasibility of bringing it to market.

Again, you're not fooling anyone here. No matter how desperately you need to focus on me. Awwwwww.

You just kicked your own ass.

Not at all.

No, yeah... You kinda did. Oops.

I just referenced what al-Husseini actually said to show that you and the parrots at the State Department and you have quite a bit in common. And you should have KNOWN all of this before you put up that ridiculous reference.

I knew it wouldn't be long before you punted to pretending our own U.S. State Dept. is either dumb or fraudulent. You did the same regarding the U.S. DoE. It's what you clowns NEED to portray. Yet "WE" are the conspiracy theorists. Riiiiiiiiight.

LOL. You're a fucking mess, at this point.

If you look at al-Husseini's public statements since retiring in 2003, including what he said in those cables, there is absolutely no doubt he believes peak is here. You're going to look fairly retarded if you insist otherwise, so save yourself the latest round of embarrassment, fossil fuel champ.

My opinion on Saudi reserves, and his estimates of the world endowment of oil, runs towards Nansen Saleri's published work and estimates.

Sorry, but al-Husseini's public statements do NOT match the sunshine and lollipop assessments of Saleri, liar. Not even close.

The ex saudi reservoir manager certainly has it all over well connected locals in the technical side of this issue. Read it and learn something. I'd be more than happy to answer questions. Assuming you can break outside your parrot habits and actually think about it well enough to ask one of course.

JPT: The Next Trillion: Anticipating and Enabling Game-Changing Recoveries April06

What a dick. You can't even answer the questions I've asked of you ALREADY, let alone the many holes you present here. Your link doesn't work, genius. Fix it, and do better.

Regardless, I'm quite familiar with Saleri. He's been dissected thoroughly at energybulletin.net, theoildrum.com and oildecline.com. ... Saleri's "everything is fine" notions about Saudi capacity have been pretty well butt-raped by myriad industry insiders, including Aramco's former VP himself. What you have there is the reservoir manager for Saudi Aramco admitting (in 2006, mind you) that while existing recovery rates are modest, "technology" will soon save the day. We're still waiting.

Saleri (I'll assume this is from the essay you're congratulating yourself about):

Peak-oil enthusiasts embrace the notion, at times unknowingly, that recovery efficiencies are, by and large, technology insensitive (actually, no we don't Nasam, but whatever) — the next trillion will mirror the last! Can we accept the premise that the 21st century’s innovations will be inconsequential in terms of recovery efficiencies? In my view, for EURs of 75% and higher to be more than tokens of vision statements, the industry must embrace a bolder R&D perspective. More ambitious than the past, less ambiguous in its EUR mission, and emboldened with the intensity and financial muscle similar to that of the Apollo space project.
​

Sounds like he believes recovery rates can soon double, from 35% to 75??? ... Sure thing. Sounds like hope and optimism to me. And hope is not a policy. Meanwhile, they've barely increased production in the years since, and al-Husseini insists they can not meet their spare capacity goals going foward, so as to keep global prices down. It doesn't take a genius to accept that Saleri was blowing smoke up your ass, industry man, and you bought it. Because you're hard-wired and brain-washed to do so.

Regardless of Sadad al-Husseini's sugarcoating for his former company a few days later (no doubt under pressure) after the Wikileaks cable, he still didn't address nor deny that he said the following as represented IN the Wikileaks cable.

He stated that the IEA's expectation that Saudi Arabia and the Middle East will lead the market in reaching global output levels of over 100 million barrels/day is unrealistic, and it is incumbent upon political leaders to begin understanding and preparing for this "inconvenient truth." [this is no longer the IEA's consensus position, btw]​

He didn't deny this, because he knows he's on record as offering the same "no they can't", and far more, in everything from that ASPO TV video, to Peter Maas' book "Crude World."

The world is at peak. And most of us believe Saudi can no longer pick up the slack on existing decline. Well, except for "industry" geniuses like you who's only skill shown in this thread is dancing and deflection. Meanwhile, the unrest we're witnessing in North Africa? Saudi used to be able to shrug that right off and ramp up production. Not any more.

$122 Brent just called, reminding you you're still swimming upstream, little salmon.

Now, I'm sure you'll fire back with your obligatory, ever-weakening round of self-congratulatory troll-etry, repeating the words "parrot" (irony) and "neurons" about 23 times (yawn), but each time you do, you sink lower and lower in the quicksand and no one is coming to throw you a rope.

This time, in between your ineffectual petty personal jabs, try and address every passage I've presented relating to the topic, not the 1/4 you feel you can try and spin.

 

[JiggsCasey]

More mythology. Global oil discovery hit its peak in 1935 (full of shit much?). The US has actually been producing more oil as of late (LOL, "more" than what? along what time line?), and we've been finding more oil in old oilfields than new ones at about a 3:1 ratio over the past couple of decades. (that's quite a statement... of course backed by nothing)

So laughingly arrogant, yet so unwilling to back up your hollow claims with a link.

If you really want to understand how some of this works, and why, take a gander here.

JPT: The Next Trillion: Anticipating and Enabling Game-Changing Recoveries April06

LOL. You're such a classic snake oil salesman. You keep trotting that out. What a shame I can't get here every hour like you, loser. I just don't have the time.

Again, that link is about Saleri's rather unpersuasive optimism for future technology as it relates to recovery rates, NOT proven reserve quotas.

Try and stay on topic. Your latest "the Google" find you're clinging to is kinda played out. You're like Plaxico Burress when he spiked the ball at the 5-yard-line, thinking he was in the endzone.

If you insist on dog-humping the link to your Saudi hero there, fine.... Now explain to the forum how the world - re-entering recession, little doubt - is going to finance Saleri's new technology breakthroughs, and how swiftly it can get up to speed all over the planet? Can't wait.

 

[RGR]

This time, in between your ineffectual petty personal jabs, try and address every passage I've presented relating to the topic, not the 1/4 you feel you can try and spin.

We've already discussed this Jiggsy. Pick one. I have no intention of going through all the propaganda you can find, from sources you haven't read, on a topic you don't understand, enmasse.

You picked Hirsch's 2005 report, and demonstrated that you hadn't read his report, didn't know he had prior reports from 1987 predicting the same claptrap, didn't understand what he was saying in the modern one, and can't think for yourself.

Pick something else you think you do understand and I'll show you how that is a load of crap.

 

[RGR]

More mythology. Global oil discovery hit its peak in 1935 (full of shit much?). The US has actually been producing more oil as of late (LOL, "more" than what? along what time line?), and we've been finding more oil in old oilfields than new ones at about a 3:1 ratio over the past couple of decades. (that's quite a statement... of course backed by nothing)

So laughingly arrogant, yet so unwilling to back up your hollow claims with a link.

If you really want to understand how some of this works, and why, take a gander here.

JPT: The Next Trillion: Anticipating and Enabling Game-Changing Recoveries April06

LOL. You're such a classic snake oil salesman. You keep trotting that out. What a shame I can't get here every hour like you, loser. I just don't have the time.

We understand. When you can't refute something, and don't know how to think because the peak religion doesn't teach that to their parrots, you run away for weeks at a time and pretend it's beneath you.

Unfortunately, you have already demonstrated that when it comes to peaker knowledge, no one is beneath you.

Refute it already.

Again, that link is about Saleri's rather unpersuasive optimism for future technology as it relates to recovery rates, NOT proven reserve quotas.

You wouldn't understand the relationship between the two, and of course its "unpersuasive" to the peaker religion, you guys design scenarios to cause your personal Rapture scenarios, you don't actually want anything to do with the science involved.

If you insist on dog-humping the link to your Saudi hero there, fine.... Now explain to the forum how the world - re-entering recession, little doubt - is going to finance Saleri's new technology breakthroughs, and how swiftly it can get up to speed all over the planet? Can't wait.

It has been happening for decades. What kind of jackass peaker hasn't heard of the basic changes in physical properties of oil which take place when it has been heated? That right there is good for another trillion barrels you intellectual midget.

 

[Old Rocks]

Well, RGR, is the present price rise reflecting the increase in production that you claim?

 

[Samson]

Well, RGR, is the present price rise reflecting the increase in production that you claim?

Um....'Rocks, have you heard about current events in Libya?

The present price rise is a result of political uncertainty and its effect on supply.

Duh.

 

[RGR]

Well, RGR, is the present price rise reflecting the increase in production that you claim?

I don't claim any increase in production. I think an ex-TOD editor is waiting to declare yet another peak oil....

Early Warning: Prospects for a New Peak in Crude & Condensate

but I don't worry about the ups and downs of oil production at the day ro day or even year to year level. It can go up, it can come down, and you know as well as I do that futures speculation because of unrest in oil producing regions has nothing to do with Jiggsy's religious beliefs.

 

[westwall]

Well, RGR, is the present price rise reflecting the increase in production that you claim?

Commodities brokers taking advantage of yet another political event. Par for the course and get used to it. The people who need to be controlled are them, they have doubled the price of oil based on speculation alone. Demand level for oil is less than 60 dollars a barrel. All the rest is thanks to the brokers.