IMF Predicts Chinese Economy to Surpass U.S. in 2016

[jodylee]

America's economic dominance on the world stage could end in five years, according to a new report.
The International Monetary Fund's latest forecast predicts that China's economy will outflank the United States' in 2016.





IMF Predicts Chinese Economy to Surpass U.S. in 2016 - FoxNews.com

 

[editec]

Yeah, well what do we expect?

We created the system to make China wealthy at the expense of the American Middle Class.

It worked!

 

[expat_panama]

America's economic dominance on the world stage could end in five years, according to a new report.
The International Monetary Fund's latest forecast predicts that China's economy will outflank the United States' in 2016.IMF Predicts Chinese Economy to Surpass U.S. in 2016 - FoxNews.com

That's the story buzzing around that everyone takes on fact and proceeds to run off to conclusions they'd already made before the story broke. The left say this America/weak China/strong shtick is what they've been saying for years and it's long overdue, and the right says it proves America is being intentionally destroyed from within.

Only problem is it's all a bunch of lies.

Check out The International Monetary Fund's website and see if you can find it. It ain't there.

The best I could do is trace this 'urban ledgend' to an oped by Arends in Market Watch, it's got a bunch of vague quotes and a fake graphic:

A person would have to be totally inumerate (sorry, 'unable to understand numbers') to accept data like that. It's based on straight line extrapolation, and that thinking also says that a hundred years from now America's share of the world economy will be less than zero and five years later China's share will be more than 100%.

Anyone here see what's wrong with that? Anyone? Come on kids this is was in your homework and it's on tomorrow's test!!

Investor's Business Daily did a reality check and had a graphic of their own:

The Chinese are nice people and I wish them well, but they got a long way to go and a lot to make up for.

 

[expat_panama]

Yeah, well what do we expect?

We created the system to make China wealthy at the expense of the American Middle Class.

It worked!

Sounds like you've accepted the report as true and have concluded that it proves what you already knew.

 

[waltky]

Uh-oh...

China Has Divested 97 Percent of Its Holdings in U.S. Treasury Bills
Friday, June 03, 2011 - China has dropped 97 percent of its holdings in U.S. Treasury bills, decreasing its ownership of the short-term U.S. government securities from a peak of $210.4 billion in May 2009 to $5.69 billion in March 2011, the most recent month reported by the U.S. Treasury.

Treasury bills are securities that mature in one year or less that are sold by the U.S. Treasury Department to fund the nation’s debt. Mainland Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasury bills are reported in column 9 of the Treasury report linked here. Until October, the Chinese were generally making up for their decreasing holdings in Treasury bills by increasing their holdings of longer-term U.S. Treasury securities. Thus, until October, China’s overall holdings of U.S. debt continued to increase. Since October, however, China has also started to divest from longer-term U.S. Treasury securities. Thus, as reported by the Treasury Department, China’s ownership of the U.S. national debt has decreased in each of the last five months on record, including November, December, January, February and March.

Prior to the fall of 2008, acccording to Treasury Department data, Chinese ownership of short-term Treasury bills was modest, standing at only $19.8 billion in August of that year. But when President George W. Bush signed legislation to authorize a $700-billion bailout of the U.S. financial industry in October 2008 and President Barack Obama signed a $787-billion economic stimulus law in February 2009, Chinese ownership of short-term U.S. Treasury bills skyrocketed. By December 2008, China owned $165.2 billion in U.S. Treasury bills, according to the Treasury Department. By March 2009, Chinese Treasury bill holdings were at $191.1 billion. By May 2009, Chinese holdings of Treasury bills were peaking at $210.4 billion.

However, China’s overall appetite for U.S. debt increased over a longer span than did its appetite for short-term U.S. Treasury bills. In August 2008, before the bank bailout and the stimulus law, overall Chinese holdings of U.S. debt stood at $573.7 billion. That number continued to escalate past May 2009-- when China started to reduce its holdings in short-term Treasury bills--and ultimately peaked at $1.1753 trillion last October. As of March 2011, overall Chinese holdings of U.S. debt had decreased to 1.1449 trillion.

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[Mr Natural]

If only American workers would work for wages comparable their Chinese counterparts, we too could have booming economy.

"Prosperity through lower wages!"

 

[william the wie]

Ex-pat is right.

China is set to bump into 15K per capita growth barrier long before it surpasses the US. The barrier exists because between 15 and 16K per capita people start realizing that economic improvement can only be in degree not kind. This is why Latin America generally gets no where for long. Argentina and Uruguay hit this point in real dollars before the US did and their growth rate slowed much faster than ours did. The Far East tends to do better at slowing down but at the expense of birthrate.

The Chinese labor force is shrinking forcing up wages so China is seeing a lot of outsourcing too and it will get worse for at least 16 years while entitlements will keep going up. The question really isn't when will China surpass us but rather how bad will their lost decades be?

 

[auditor0007]

America's economic dominance on the world stage could end in five years, according to a new report.
The International Monetary Fund's latest forecast predicts that China's economy will outflank the United States' in 2016.IMF Predicts Chinese Economy to Surpass U.S. in 2016 - FoxNews.com

That's the story buzzing around that everyone takes on fact and proceeds to run off to conclusions they'd already made before the story broke. The left say this America/weak China/strong shtick is what they've been saying for years and it's long overdue, and the right says it proves America is being intentionally destroyed from within.

Only problem is it's all a bunch of lies.

Check out The International Monetary Fund's website and see if you can find it. It ain't there.

The best I could do is trace this 'urban ledgend' to an oped by Arends in Market Watch, it's got a bunch of vague quotes and a fake graphic:

A person would have to be totally inumerate (sorry, 'unable to understand numbers') to accept data like that. It's based on straight line extrapolation, and that thinking also says that a hundred years from now America's share of the world economy will be less than zero and five years later China's share will be more than 100%.

Anyone here see what's wrong with that? Anyone? Come on kids this is was in your homework and it's on tomorrow's test!!

Investor's Business Daily did a reality check and had a graphic of their own:

The Chinese are nice people and I wish them well, but they got a long way to go and a lot to make up for.

As a total economy, they will easily surpass us very soon. Remember that their population is more than four times our own. That does not mean they will have a larger per capita GDP. In the long run, it really doesn't mean all that much anyway.

 

[expat_panama]

...As a total economy, they will easily surpass us very soon. Remember that their population is more than four times our own...

The magnitude of economic activity depends on much more than just population size. America has a twentieth of the worlds population but we end up doing a third of the worlds work of having a job and earning a paycheck.

Market Watch's goofy extrapolation ignores the fact that half of China's population is still scratching for food from the ground and forbidden by law to move into the growing city economies. OK, China is not nearly as bad off as it was a few decades ago. Big deal. Even though Chinese developing prosperity is a good thing there's more to economic growth than merely 'not self-destructing'.

 

[martybegan]

America's economic dominance on the world stage could end in five years, according to a new report.
The International Monetary Fund's latest forecast predicts that China's economy will outflank the United States' in 2016.IMF Predicts Chinese Economy to Surpass U.S. in 2016 - FoxNews.com

That's the story buzzing around that everyone takes on fact and proceeds to run off to conclusions they'd already made before the story broke. The left say this America/weak China/strong shtick is what they've been saying for years and it's long overdue, and the right says it proves America is being intentionally destroyed from within.

Only problem is it's all a bunch of lies.

Check out The International Monetary Fund's website and see if you can find it. It ain't there.

The best I could do is trace this 'urban ledgend' to an oped by Arends in Market Watch, it's got a bunch of vague quotes and a fake graphic:

A person would have to be totally inumerate (sorry, 'unable to understand numbers') to accept data like that. It's based on straight line extrapolation, and that thinking also says that a hundred years from now America's share of the world economy will be less than zero and five years later China's share will be more than 100%.

Anyone here see what's wrong with that? Anyone? Come on kids this is was in your homework and it's on tomorrow's test!!

Investor's Business Daily did a reality check and had a graphic of their own:

The Chinese are nice people and I wish them well, but they got a long way to go and a lot to make up for.

As a total economy, they will easily surpass us very soon. Remember that their population is more than four times our own. That does not mean they will have a larger per capita GDP. In the long run, it really doesn't mean all that much anyway.

THIS. also add in the fact that as bad as we think our economy is, it is probably one of the most stable out there, and has a long track record. China is still in the middle of a shift in how thier economy works, with a probable upcoming shift in thier political system as well. Add in the sex demographic issue they have coming in 20-30 years and that is alot of uncertainty to worry about.

 

[william the wie]

THIS. also add in the fact that as bad as we think our economy is, it is probably one of the most stable out there, and has a long track record. China is still in the middle of a shift in how thier economy works, with a probable upcoming shift in thier political system as well. Add in the sex demographic issue they have coming in 20-30 years and that is alot of uncertainty to worry about.

Just a correction not a criticism the sex demographic problem is already hitting and the use of the import market is going to cause problems due to Chinese racism. Why do you think it will take 20-30 years as opposed to say either 10-20 or 30-40 years to reach a crisis or is that a SWAG?

 

[waltky]

Oil price spike and European debt threaten economy...

The scariest risks to the economy
July 5, 2011: A European debt default in a country like Greece or a new oil price spike are the biggest risks to the U.S. economy, according to economists.

U.S. policymakers are racing to reach an agreement before the debt ceiling is breached. But the biggest risks to the U.S. economy are mostly out of their hands. CNNMoney surveyed 27 economists and asked them to choose from a list of possible threats facing the economy. What scares them most? A sovereign debt default by a European country such as Greece. More than half of those surveyed ranked it as one of their top two concerns, with 10 choosing it as their number one worry. "A Europe debt default could cause financial crises as large as the 2008 one due to financial system interconnections," said Bill Watkins, executive director of the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting.

Another oil price shock, which most likely would come from further political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, is their next biggest worry. Many economists blame the spike in oil earlier this year for the slowdown in economic growth, as it raised costs for businesses and cut into consumer spending. And though oil and gas prices have come off their highs of a couple of months ago, the threat they pose to the economy has not vanished. "Oil prices sustained above $125 a barrel for six months or longer would guarantee another recession in 2012," said James Smith, chief economist for Parsec Financial Management.

After tumbling on the news that the U.S. was releasing 30 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, oil prices are on the rise again, currently hovering around $95 a barrel. Earlier in the year, the economy seemed to be on the road to recovery. But economic growth began to slow in late spring, leading many economists to slash their forecasts and revive talk of a double-dip recession. Though the economists do see major risk from a possible U.S. default in the event that Congress does not raise the debt ceiling, they did not view that as being very likely. "While the consequences of Congress failing to raise the debt ceiling are most significant, the probability of that occurring are extremely remote," said Kevin Giddis, head of fixed income for Morgan Keegan, who ranked it as the least serious threat.

Still, enough economists are worried about the debt ceiling debate that 10 of them picked it as one of the top two worries, with six of those ranking it number one. Relatively few of the economists surveyed were worried about the other risks they had to choose from -- a slowdown among emerging economies such as China, or budget cutting by federal, state and local governments. "Austerity is a short-term risk, but will help long-term," said David Wyss, former chief economist at Standard & Poor's, now visiting fellow at Brown University. "The odds of too big a budget cut seems small."

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