IMF Predicts Chinese Economy to Surpass U.S. in 2016

Discussion in 'Economy' started by jodylee, May 1, 2011.

  1. jodylee
    Offline

    jodylee Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2007
    Messages:
    405
    Thanks Received:
    65
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Ratings:
    +65
  2. editec
    Offline

    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2008
    Messages:
    41,427
    Thanks Received:
    5,598
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Maine
    Ratings:
    +5,618
    Yeah, well what do we expect?

    We created the system to make China wealthy at the expense of the American Middle Class.

    It worked!
     
  3. expat_panama
    Offline

    expat_panama Silver Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2011
    Messages:
    2,461
    Thanks Received:
    252
    Trophy Points:
    98
    Ratings:
    +253
    That's the story buzzing around that everyone takes on fact and proceeds to run off to conclusions they'd already made before the story broke. The left say this America/weak China/strong shtick is what they've been saying for years and it's long overdue, and the right says it proves America is being intentionally destroyed from within.

    Only problem is it's all a bunch of lies.

    Check out The International Monetary Fund's website and see if you can find it. It ain't there.

    The best I could do is trace this 'urban ledgend' to an oped by Arends in Market Watch, it's got a bunch of vague quotes and a fake graphic:
    [​IMG]
    A person would have to be totally inumerate (sorry, 'unable to understand numbers') to accept data like that. It's based on straight line extrapolation, and that thinking also says that a hundred years from now America's share of the world economy will be less than zero and five years later China's share will be more than 100%.

    Anyone here see what's wrong with that? Anyone? Come on kids this is was in your homework and it's on tomorrow's test!!

    Investor's Business Daily did a reality check and had a graphic of their own:
    [​IMG]
    The Chinese are nice people and I wish them well, but they got a long way to go and a lot to make up for.
     
  4. expat_panama
    Offline

    expat_panama Silver Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2011
    Messages:
    2,461
    Thanks Received:
    252
    Trophy Points:
    98
    Ratings:
    +253
    Sounds like you've accepted the report as true and have concluded that it proves what you already knew.
     
  5. waltky
    Offline

    waltky Wise ol' monkey Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2011
    Messages:
    20,913
    Thanks Received:
    1,792
    Trophy Points:
    215
    Location:
    Okolona, KY
    Ratings:
    +3,894
    Uh-oh...
    :eek:
    China Has Divested 97 Percent of Its Holdings in U.S. Treasury Bills
    Friday, June 03, 2011 - China has dropped 97 percent of its holdings in U.S. Treasury bills, decreasing its ownership of the short-term U.S. government securities from a peak of $210.4 billion in May 2009 to $5.69 billion in March 2011, the most recent month reported by the U.S. Treasury.

     
  6. Mr Clean
    Offline

    Mr Clean Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2009
    Messages:
    10,055
    Thanks Received:
    2,250
    Trophy Points:
    255
    Ratings:
    +3,827
    If only American workers would work for wages comparable their Chinese counterparts, we too could have booming economy.

    "Prosperity through lower wages!"
     
  7. william the wie
    Offline

    william the wie Gold Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2009
    Messages:
    7,334
    Thanks Received:
    677
    Trophy Points:
    175
    Ratings:
    +1,635
    Ex-pat is right.

    China is set to bump into 15K per capita growth barrier long before it surpasses the US. The barrier exists because between 15 and 16K per capita people start realizing that economic improvement can only be in degree not kind. This is why Latin America generally gets no where for long. Argentina and Uruguay hit this point in real dollars before the US did and their growth rate slowed much faster than ours did. The Far East tends to do better at slowing down but at the expense of birthrate.

    The Chinese labor force is shrinking forcing up wages so China is seeing a lot of outsourcing too and it will get worse for at least 16 years while entitlements will keep going up. The question really isn't when will China surpass us but rather how bad will their lost decades be?
     
  8. auditor0007
    Offline

    auditor0007 Gold Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2008
    Messages:
    12,566
    Thanks Received:
    2,255
    Trophy Points:
    255
    Location:
    Toledo, OH
    Ratings:
    +3,218
    As a total economy, they will easily surpass us very soon. Remember that their population is more than four times our own. That does not mean they will have a larger per capita GDP. In the long run, it really doesn't mean all that much anyway.
     
  9. expat_panama
    Offline

    expat_panama Silver Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2011
    Messages:
    2,461
    Thanks Received:
    252
    Trophy Points:
    98
    Ratings:
    +253
    The magnitude of economic activity depends on much more than just population size. America has a twentieth of the worlds population but we end up doing a third of the worlds work of having a job and earning a paycheck.

    Market Watch's goofy extrapolation ignores the fact that half of China's population is still scratching for food from the ground and forbidden by law to move into the growing city economies. OK, China is not nearly as bad off as it was a few decades ago. Big deal. Even though Chinese developing prosperity is a good thing there's more to economic growth than merely 'not self-destructing'.
     
  10. martybegan
    Offline

    martybegan Gold Member

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2010
    Messages:
    29,495
    Thanks Received:
    4,017
    Trophy Points:
    290
    Ratings:
    +11,046
    THIS. also add in the fact that as bad as we think our economy is, it is probably one of the most stable out there, and has a long track record. China is still in the middle of a shift in how thier economy works, with a probable upcoming shift in thier political system as well. Add in the sex demographic issue they have coming in 20-30 years and that is alot of uncertainty to worry about.
     

Share This Page