IMF: peak is here

[KissMy]

- “I take this opportunity to express my opinion in the strongest terms, that the amazing exhibition of oil which has characterized the last twenty, and will probably characterize the next ten or twenty years, is nevertheless, not only geologically but historically, a temporary and vanishing phenomenon – one which young men will live to see come to its natural end” (1886, J.P. Lesley, state geologist of Pennsylvania).

- “There is little or no chance for more oil in California” (1886, U.S. Geological Survey).

- “There is little or no chance for more oil in Kansas and Texas” (1891, U.S. Geological Survey).

- “Total future production limit of 5.7 billion barrels of oil, perhaps a ten-year supply” (1914, U.S. Bureau of Mines).

- "Within the next two to five years the oil fields of this country will reach their maximum production, and from that time on we will face an ever-increasing decline." (1919 director of the U.S. Bureau of Mines)

- "Oil shales in Colorado and Utah would be exploited to produce oil, because the demand for oil could not be met by existing production." (1919 National Geographic magazine)

- "The time is, indeed, well in sight, when the United States will be nearing the end of some of its available stocks of raw materials on which her industrial supremacy has been largely built. America is running through her stores of domestic oil and is obliged to look abroad for future reserves. (September 1919, E. Mackay Edgar, in Sperling's Journal)

- "The position of the United States in regard to oil can best be characterized as precarious." (January 1920 Dr. George Otis Smith, Director of the United States Geological Survey)

- "Americans will have to depend on foreign sources or use less oil, or perhaps both." (May 1920 Dr. George Otis Smith, Director of the United States Geological Survey)

- "On the whole, therefore, we must expect that, unless our consumption is checked, we shall by 1925 be dependent on foreign oil fields to the extent of 150,000,000 barrels and possibly as much as 200,000,000 of crude each year, except insofar as the situation may at that time, perhaps, be helped to a slight extent by shale oil. Add to this probability that within 5 years--perhaps 3 years only--our domestic production will begin to fall off with increasing rapidity, due to the exhaustion of our reserves" (1920 David White, United States Geological Survey)

- During the period 1919-22, imports of crude oil from Mexico had been large--equal to 22 percent of total United States consumption in 1921. But salt water began to appear in some Mexican wells, and by 1921 geologists were debating whether Mexican production was not "through." in commenting upon the Mexican situation. "A great slump in Mexican production seems sooner or later inevitable. Thus there was not only alarm about the United States oil potential but also about our primary foreign source of supply. Lendling encouragement to these doubts were statements appearing in foreign publications describing the United States oil position." (1921, David White of the United States Geological Survey)

- "Given a resumption of trade and the consequent demand for oil products in, at the most, a year or two, the world will be confronted with an oil shortage such as has never been experienced before. (1921, E. Mackay Edgar)

- “Reserves to last only thirteen years” (1939, Department of the Interior).

- “Reserves to last thirteen years” (1951, Department of the Interior, Oil and Gas Division).

- “We could use up all of the proven reserves of oil in the entire world by the end of the next decade” (President Jimmy Carter speaking in 1978 to the entire world).

- “At the present rate of use, it is estimated that coal reserves will last 200 more years. Petroleum may run out in 20 to 30 years, and natural gas may last only another 70 years” (Ralph M. Feather, Merrill textbook Science Connections Annotated Teacher’s Version, 1990, p. 493).

- “At the current rate of consumption, some scientists estimate that the world’s known supplies of oil … will be used up within your lifetime” (1993, The United States and its People).

- “The supply of fossil fuels is being used up at an alarming rate. Governments must help save our fossil fuel supply by passing laws limiting their use” (Merrill/Glenco textbook, Biology, An Everyday Experience, 1992).

Quotes like these could fill a thousand pages easily. _PeakOil?

One interesting example of a big oil find in the midst of "an exhausted field" occurred in Kern County, California. Kern River Oil Field was discovered in 1899, and initially it was thought that only 10 percent of its heavy, viscous crude could be recovered. In 1942, after more than four decades of modest production, the field was estimated to still hold 54 million barrels of recoverable oil. As pointed out in 1995 by Morris Adelman, professor emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and one of the few remaining energy gurus, “in the next forty-four years, it produced not 54 million barrels but 736 million barrels, and it had another 970 million barrels remaining.” But even this estimate was wrong. In November 2007 U.S. oil giant Chevron announced that cumulative production had reached two billion barrels. Today, Kern River still puts out more than 80,000 barrels per day, and Chevron reckons that the remaining reserves are about 480 million barrels.

"Proven Reserves" are those that can be produced "economically." But the definitions of economical production are constantly changing, as the technology (and the politics eg, Iraq) changes.

And then there are the "unconventionals," such as heavy oils, oil sands, oil shales, coal to liquids, gas to liquids, and biomass to liquids. A doomer will not even stoop to discuss this 50 ton gorilla in the room, but any good economist would be forced to consider them.
The cost of oil comes down to the cost of finding, and then lifting or extracting. First, you have to decide where to dig. Exploration costs currently run under $3 per barrel in much of the Mideast, and below $7 for oil hidden deep under the ocean. But these costs have been falling, not rising, because imaging technology that lets geologists peer through miles of water and rock improves faster than supplies recede. Many lower-grade deposits require no new looking at all.

To pick just one example among many, finding costs are essentially zero for the 3.5 trillion barrels of oil that soak the clay in the Orinoco basin in Venezuela, and the Athabasca tar sands in Alberta, Canada. Yes, that’s trillion – over a century’s worth of global supply, at the current 30-billion-barrel-a-year rate of consumption. _WallStreetJournal Jan 2005_quoted by_PeakOil?

There is so much fail here, it's hard to know where to begin.

But the biggest fail is your flat refusal to link your work.

Again, why is the IMF lying about their claim of oil scarcity?

All quotes & sources are listed. Google them if you think I am lying.

 

[KissMy]

Nope - No Peak Oil Yet! Keep on Gloom & Dooming!

World oil supply rose to an all-time high of 89 mb/d in February, up 0.2 mb/d from January. Non-OPEC oil supply rose 0.3 mb/d to 53.2 mb/d on re-instated Alaskan output. 2010 non-OPEC estimates are left unchanged at 52.8 mb/d, while the 2011 forecast is raised by 0.1 mb/d, to 53.6 mb/d, on stronger-than-expected Canadian output.

OPEC crude oil output in February fell by 95 kb/d to 30.05 mb/d. A near 200 kb/d average monthly loss of Libyan supply was partly offset by higher production from Gulf states. OPEC’s ‘effective’ spare capacity, excluding Libya, is now near 4.08 mb/d, its lowest since end 2008. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’, revised up for 1Q11, is cut going forward, averaging 29.9 mb/d for 2011 overall.

January OECD industry inventories rose by 32.0 mb to 2 695 mb and forward demand cover increased to 58.2 days. Preliminary February data point to a sharp 43.4 mb decline, while oil in short-term floating storage grew by 8 mb.

 

[L.K.Eder]

relax, everyone. the elves will take care of it. or the aliens. or the gubmint.


but be assured. you will never be forced to adjust your lifestyle to reality.


reality is conspiracy.

 

[Toro]

In case you missed it.

IMF warns oil growing scarce, most costly.


The first pillar of global empire has finally come out and admitted what they've known about for years. What WE have known since May of 2001, when a US administration hid domestic energy policy from the American people -- all the way to the Supreme Court.

Will the others follow suit, or keep up the charade? World Bank? USAID?

Anyone taking odds on the DOW up or down today?

Damn, I hope so. I'll find a way to make a lot of money out of this!

 

[KissMy]

Q - Is oil prices rising?
A - NO!!!
Q - Is the US Dollar falling?
A - YES!!!

 

[sparky]

isn't the IMF itself a huge holder / trader of gold?

if so, wouldn't the petrodollar become a biased entity to them?

 

[RGR]

the "scarcity" is driven by human manipulation not drained resources.

Uh huh.... So I ask again, the IMF is lying? Or just misinformed?

Whats wrong with a 3rd option, they read all those predictions from the past 2 centuries that KissMy posted and decided to rinse and repeat the same ideas?

Seems no one can answer that question.... They just "know in their heart" it's false.

You haven't addressed the many quotes KissMy provided. Certainly those people were just as worried, and it has been happening since before you were born. Were you scared when you born, realizing that organizations like the IMF (if not even more credible) have been claiming the end of oil for more years than you have lived?

For the record, and to make sure RGR's latest round of fraud is held accountable, I've never quoted Kunstler.

I never said you did parrot. Your reading comprehension is so bad you can't even read and remember what I actually wrote within the past 24 hours? Jesus Jiggsy, can't you run off to your church and have them send in someone with a brain to debate this stuff? All you manage to do is make peakers look dumb as mud.

RGR, don't get all untucked just because you take a beating every time you engage me.

Engage you? Is that what you call it when I provide a reference and you tuck tail and run? Man, tell your mom to shut off your video games and read a book already.

 

[RGR]

There is so much fail here, it's hard to know where to begin.

Yeah, a parrot certainly doesn't know where to start, can't refute any of it, and just makes a bland statement....I predict another tuck tail and run episode is in the offing.

But the biggest fail is your flat refusal to link your work.
Again, why is the IMF lying about their claim of oil scarcity?

The IMF isn't lying, they are recycling the stuff from before when you were born. And links are only for the ignorant fools who don't know where the JP Lesley quote was delivered (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) or who referenced the quote in which document.

Carll, John F., 1890, Oil and Gas Fields of Western Pennsylvania: For 1887,1888, Board of Commissioners For The Geological Survey, p23-24

What kind of moron would demand a link? Oh...the kind who doesn't know anything about this stuff!

But thanks for following my prediction, a single sentence, change the topic, and off goes Jiggsy because he sure can't answer the question, "How many centuries has scarcity been used to work up mindless twits like Jiggsy".

 

[Flopper]

Oil isn't growing scarce

It's right in the headline, and throughout the story.

The keyword being "story". A "story" which started in at least 1886 when the world was running out of oil, and continues to this day.

We will never run out of oil. As price rises there will be more conversions to alternative fuels, natural gas, electricity produce by solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Price will fall with demand. I think oil will be around for a long time, it just may not be a primary source of energy.

 

[RGR]

All quotes & sources are listed. Google them if you think I am lying.

Parrots can't google. Or read footnoted work. It doesn't have hyperlinks. Which they don't know how to click on anyway.

This would work better if Jiggsy actually could think for himself instead of pretending that his IMF article has anything to do with peak oil. Doesn't even use the word. Jiggsy has to fabricate the connection.

 

[RGR]

It's right in the headline, and throughout the story.

The keyword being "story". A "story" which started in at least 1886 when the world was running out of oil, and continues to this day.

We will never run out of oil. As price rises there will be more conversions to alternative fuels, natural gas, electricity produce by solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Price will fall with demand. I think oil will be around for a long time, it just may not be a primary source of energy.

Oil will easily last into the next century. We certainly won't be as dependent upon it as we are now for transport fuels (a wasteful a use of the stuff as anyone can think of) but it'll be a chemical feedstock long after the next peak oil....or the next one....or the next one...or however many more we might have.

 

[JiggsCasey]

Yeah, a parrot certainly doesn't know where to start, can't refute any of it, and just makes a bland statement....I predict another tuck tail and run episode is in the offing.

Flanders, I've never run from you, or your underling. I just don't come to this site every day, and I don't send myself text alerts for content here so as to satisfy my incessant trolling requirement, like you undoubtedly do.

Don't flatter yourself. You tried the "nothing to see here" ploy, and failed.

Your argument has had to mutate as you've gone along, to where it's so bad for you now that you're 1) pretending the IMF is dumb, and 2) riding a wave of utterly irrelevant quotes from 1880 to 1951.

The IMF isn't lying, they are recycling the stuff from before when you were born. And links are only for the ignorant fools who don't know where the JP Lesley quote was delivered (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) or who referenced the quote in which document.

LOL. Like I said. I'm sure in your mind, the IMF is either lying or dumb.

Lying, I can understand that being your cop-out fall back position. But when you're resorting to pretending the International Monetary Fund is merely gullible, you've officially waved the white flag.

My God, do you ever suck at this.

Carll, John F., 1890, Oil and Gas Fields of Western Pennsylvania: For 1887,1888, Board of Commissioners For The Geological Survey, p23-24

Completely irrelevant, and I will not be baited into your latest stall job, you unrivaled forum fraud.

I'm sure there were navigators who claimed the world was round long before Columbus. And the idiot flat-earthers who laughed at him could do nothing but punt to their claims of the past as "proof."

How can I be surprised you'd be reduced to this? After all, I'm wasting time arguing with a denialist parrot who insists EROEI isn't a valuable measuring stick for comparing energy sources. Yeah, that stupid basic arithmetic. How biased.

What kind of moron would demand a link?

The kind who caught you hiding from providing one in this very thread, because your knew your claim was 3rd hand from an abiotic theory web site? Oops, not a moron at all. Just a counter-balance to energy frauds like you. One who holds you guys accountable for your laughable sources.

But thanks for following my prediction, a single sentence, change the topic, and off goes Jiggsy because he sure can't answer the question, "How many centuries has scarcity been used to work up mindless twits like Jiggsy".

I'm right here, cool guy. With a bit more time this particular week to waste on the likes of energy frauds such as you. Not going anywhere, despite your obvious and desperate desire for me to do so.

You keep wasting time presenting irrelevant quotes from 100 years ago all you like. I'll be here reminding you of present-day data from the EIA, the Joint Chiefs, Oxford Univ., the IEA, the German military, the British Government, that does not lie one bit. The technology can not stave off the supply/demand shortfall any longer, and you clowns can't STAND that reality. Awwww.

Keep working toward that goal of earning yourself a Vincent E. McKelvey Lifetime Achievement Award. You're well on your way, flat-earther.

 

[Old Rocks]

Yes, geologically, there is a lot of oil left. Very expensive oil. If you enjoy the thought of 20 to 40 dollar a gallon gasoline, enough oil for another century. Of course, the cost of the oil in terms of GHGs isn't factored in, either. Or the cost in terms of military costs to this nation to protect our supply routes and the nations that produce the oil.

Ah well. We live in interesting times.

 

[RGR]

I'm right here, cool guy. With a bit more time this particular week to waste on the likes of energy frauds such as you. Not going anywhere, despite your obvious and desperate desire for me to do so.

You keep wasting time presenting irrelevant quotes from 100 years ago all you like.

They aren't irrelevant. And you thinking they are is all the proof any adult reading this needs to determine the validity of your shucking and jiving.

As far as you going somewhere...stick around. The more you post the more you make my point for me.

 

[JiggsCasey]

I'm right here, cool guy. With a bit more time this particular week to waste on the likes of energy frauds such as you. Not going anywhere, despite your obvious and desperate desire for me to do so.

You keep wasting time presenting irrelevant quotes from 100 years ago all you like.

They aren't irrelevant. And you thinking they are is all the proof any adult reading this needs to determine the validity of your shucking and jiving.

As far as you going somewhere...stick around. The more you post the more you make my point for me.

The only points you've ever made is that you're a self-important fossil fuel shill, and you are pretending net energy refers isn't important. So, yes, I continue to clarify your agenda.

That your responses keep getting shorter and less relevant screams of the fact that you're beaten, and have no where else to turn but to IRRELEVANT quotes from 80 years ago. Apples to oranges. See, there wasn't 7 billion people on the planet back then, and the IMF, Joint Chiefs, DoE, IEA and Total Oil weren't all admitting, along WITH Ickes, that peak was imminent. See the distinction yet? Or are you still blowing yourself?

Anyhoo, here we are... Adding a few more runs to your 10-run deficit here in the ninth inning:

IMF hikes oil price forecast by 20%
IMF hikes oil price forecast by 20% - Street Sweep: Fortune's Wall Street Blog
April 11, 2011 11:00 am

This year's oil price spike has dragged the IMF kicking and screaming into the world of overstressed energy markets.

The International Monetary Fund said Monday that it expects the global oil price to average $107 a barrel this year and $108 next. That's 20% above its previous forecast, thanks to stronger-than-expected global petroleum growth in 2010 and a less than enthusiastic supply response.

Global oil demand rose 3.4% last year, the IMF said in the latest release of chapters from its semiannual World Economic Outlook report. That's the fastest pace since 2004 and double the rate IMF forecasters projected at the start of 2010.

Meanwhile, the supply of crude oil "is responding sluggishly to the ongoing pickup in demand, largely reflecting the policy stance of OPEC," the IMF said.

The IMF said it believes the high prices, if sustained at current levels, should have only a "mild effect" on global economic growth. But it conceded that "the key downside risk to growth relates to the potential for oil prices to surprise further on the upside because of supply disruptions."

We have seen a few of those in recent months, to the IMF's apparent surprise. The agency predicted last fall that the oil price would average $78 this year. After an early year spike spurred by the political meltdown in Egypt, it raised that forecast to $89 in January.

But now, oil is trading at $112 in New York and $126 in London, even as Middle East anxiety recedes -- along with U.S. gasoline demand. And the IMF is warning that another supply shock-driven surge in prices could undo a fragile global recovery.

(continued)

The IMF said a surge to that level in 2011, with prices falling back next year, could wipe 0.75 percentage point off its forecast for economic growth in advanced economies, which it currently sees expanding 2.5% this year. The impact would be varied elsewhere, with Asia and Latin America slowing but the Middle East gaining as oil export revenue rose.

That is sort of a best-case worst-case scenario, however. "Global output losses would be much larger in the event of a permanent shock to oil supply," the IMF warns.

The IMF hints at one possible source of such a disruption – the prospect that the rest of the world is overestimating the capacity of OPEC nations led by Saudi Arabia to boost production to meet growing global demand. If OPEC's spare production cushion is thinner than we think, prices are going to be much more apt to surge any time we see a flare-up in an oil-producing country.​

And it IS thinner.

Red light, deniers!! Time to stop.

Awwwww.

 

[RGR]

The only points you've ever made is that you're a self-important fossil fuel shill, and you are pretending net energy refers isn't important. So, yes, I continue to clarify your agenda.

You can't clarify something you don't understand. And you are a parrot. I asked before, I will ask again. Please go round up one of your church members who understands why your lack of knowledge on the history of peak oil and scarcity matters.

Or send in any second grader who doesn't share genes from whatever parrot pool you came from.

Tomorrow I've got one of those presentations going on, stop on by the Houston convention center and say hi.

 

[JiggsCasey]

The only points you've ever made is that you're a self-important fossil fuel shill, and you are pretending net energy refers isn't important. So, yes, I continue to clarify your agenda.

You can't clarify something you don't understand. And you are a parrot. I asked before, I will ask again. Please go round up one of your church members who understands why your lack of knowledge on the history of peak oil and scarcity matters.

Or send in any second grader who doesn't share genes from whatever parrot pool you came from.

Tomorrow I've got one of those presentations going on, stop on by the Houston convention center and say hi.

Be sure to fill up your speech with quotes from the early 20th century, and do not dare to mention the IMF's admission this week.

Sorta like you're doing in this thread.

Clearly the IMF, the Pentagon, the IEA, the EIA, Oxford Univ., the British Government, the German military, Total Oil, ASPO, Sadad al-Husseini and Dick Cheney himself are all either lying, or dumb.

When you're done choking through your speech, hurry back and punt to Harold Ickes again! Doing wonders for your dancing routine.

 

[RGR]

Be sure to fill up your speech with quotes from the early 20th century, and do not dare to mention the IMF's admission this week.

Don't you get it yet? No one cares about your religious beliefs. Your prophets have been declaring this about price, that about supply, something else about the consequences, for longer than you have been alive.

And you...a parrot....don't know this history, don't want to know this history, and therefore can't even answer the most basic of questions...easy ones...like....what makes this time special?

Clearly the IMF, the Pentagon, the IEA, the EIA, Oxford Univ., the British Government, the German military, Total Oil, ASPO, Sadad al-Husseini and Dick Cheney himself are all either lying, or dumb.

Wow...you parrot lists of organizations really well.

Why is it all you can do it list organizations parrot? Here is a simple question for a man such a fan of the military's opinion on oil supply....why were they buying up public land, preparing for oil scarcity before you were born, and all they are doing now is writing reports? Could it be their ability to predict scarcity is no better now than before you were born?

When you're done choking through your speech, hurry back and punt to Harold Ickes again! Doing wonders for your dancing routine.

Presentation went fine. Why weren't you here trying to learn something? If you want to learn something about oil and gas resources this is the place. Where were you? Off reading the peaker bible to scare newbies, or finding new lists of stuff you don't understand to parrot?

 

[JiggsCasey]

Don't you get it yet? No one cares about your religious beliefs. Your prophets have been declaring this about price, that about supply, something else about the consequences, for longer than you have been alive.

And most of them pointed to this decade that past. What's your point? Certainly Hubbert did. His model dictates peak production comes some 40 years after peak discovery.

And you...a parrot....don't know this history, don't want to know this history, and therefore can't even answer the most basic of questions...easy ones...like....what makes this time special?

Yes yes. You keep saying that over and over. We get it, you're out of ammunition.

Christ, move on, find some new material, or STFU.

They were basically all correct back then, just off on a timeline. As the model was improved and refined, the by the 1950s and 60s, as global discoveries peaked, they targeted the first decade of the 21st century. That's what "Limits to Growth" said, regardless of what liars like you distorted.

Wow...you parrot lists of organizations really well.

Not nearly as well as you parrot data-less, cornucopian industry pablum. Parrot.

Why is it all you can do it list organizations parrot? Here is a simple question for a man such a fan of the military's opinion on oil supply....why were they buying up public land, preparing for oil scarcity before you were born, and all they are doing now is writing reports? Could it be their ability to predict scarcity is no better now than before you were born?

LOL. Could it be they simply found no easy-to-extract light crude in any significant volume and gave up?

When you're done choking through your speech, hurry back and punt to Harold Ickes again! Doing wonders for your dancing routine.

Presentation went fine. Why weren't you here trying to learn something? If you want to learn something about oil and gas resources this is the place. Where were you? Off reading the peaker bible to scare newbies, or finding new lists of stuff you don't understand to parrot?

You don't learn from fraud. Only how to spot it. You are a fraud.

Maybe I'll go to one of your symposiums ... right after you go to an ASPO convention.

 

[RGR]

They were basically all correct back then, just off on a timeline.

So answer the question. Why is your timeline any better than theirs?

As the model was improved and refined, the by the 1950s and 60s, as global discoveries peaked, they targeted the first decade of the 21st century. That's what "Limits to Growth" said, regardless of what liars like you distorted.

Before you prove you didn't read anything related to what you just said, please pick a single piece of evidence you wish to discuss. Then go actually read it this time, unlike your tuck tail and run episode with the Hirsch report.

Presentation went fine. Why weren't you here trying to learn something? If you want to learn something about oil and gas resources this is the place. Where were you? Off reading the peaker bible to scare newbies, or finding new lists of stuff you don't understand to parrot?

You don't learn from fraud. Only how to spot it. You are a fraud.

Are you implying you were there and actually KNOW something? And I wasn't? How grand! I don't suppose you would like to discuss Art Bermans talk, General Assembly Room A, Tuesday at 2PM? Fascinating piece of preening don't you think? Did you miss that one? How...expected. Lets face it...your ignorance of what a second grader knows means that even if you were there it is unlikely you could read the titles of the talks coherently, let alone hope to understand any of them.

Maybe I'll go to one of your symposiums ... right after you go to an ASPO convention.

Who said I haven't? AAPG came to Denver in June of 2009 (yes, I had a presentation in that one as well ) and brought 7000 people, rented out the convention center.

ASPO showed up in October of that same year, had themselves a fine hotel room rented at the Sheraton and I think they even filled up like 12 or 15 tables! It was a surprising turnout! And outside the Sheraton, there were about half a dozen people dressed up in chicken little costumes, with the occasional placard.

Would you like to know the names of those in the chicken little costumes?