CDZ IL or CA and Why

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Forgot, more and more Asians too in CA. They always seem to have a job and money.

That's because we aren't raised with an entitlement mentality.

 

[Ridgerunner]

Roughly 5 million people left California in the last decade. See where they went

No wonder they don't want any type of illegal immigration enforcement... Who is going to do the work when that many people are chasing living wages some where else...

 

[Rambunctious]

California is headed for disaster...

 

[william the wie]

Where are you getting your stats? Real estate is going up here in Cali.

You never even bother to pay attention to your own state politics?


https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings/government/fiscal-stability



Best States for Fiscal Stability
Fiscal Stability Rank State
#1 ND
#2 WY
#3 TX
#4 NC
#5 SD
#6 VT
#7 TN
#8 IN
#9 UT
#10 FL
#11 VA
#12 ID
#13 DE
#14 GA
#15 WI
#16 IA
#17 MD
#18 WA
#19 SC
#20 NH
#21 MO
#22 NY
#23 NE
#24 CO
#25 AK
#26 OK
#27 MN
#28 AR
#29 MA
#30 WV
#31 MI
#32 AZ
#33 MT
#34 AL
#35 OR
#36 KS
#37 RI
#38 ME
#39 NM
#40 PA
#41 HI
#42 OH
#43 CA
#44 NV
#45 MS
#46 LA
#47 CT
#48 KY
#49 NJ
#50 IL

Did you actually read it?

From your link.

"California, the most populous state in the nation, is home to Hollywood’s stars, Silicon Valley’s technology, Napa Valley’s wines and ancient Redwood and Sequoia forests. The Golden State also is one of the country’s wealthiest and most socially and politically influential, and has been since it became a state nearly 170 years ago."

What does that have to do with bad fiscal management by the state? What you never paid attention that California has a huge Unfunded Union pension bubble ready to burst?

The no longer resident retirees can and will sue in federal court. Also state government office buildings were purportedly put up for collateral. If so the state government may go live on comedy central.

 

[DarkFury]

If Trump's tax cuts really do cause states to default, then the national debt will take a massive hit. Slashing tax revenue at the same time as bailing out a bunch of states is going to be ugly.

Why would be bail out blue States?

 

[TheOldSchool]

If Trump's tax cuts really do cause states to default, then the national debt will take a massive hit. Slashing tax revenue at the same time as bailing out a bunch of states is going to be ugly.

Why would be bail out blue States?

Oh yes that's right, Trump isn't a real President

 

[william the wie]

Ill will collapse first. Two reasons, weather and CA has more Mexicans. Mexicans will actually work when the freebies run down. I am not a racist. Forgot, more and more Asians too in CA. They always seem to have a job and money.

East Asians have a lot more experience dealing with a CA style government on steroids and they have triad buddies that make the Mafia look like a street gang.

 

[DarkFury]

If Trump's tax cuts really do cause states to default, then the national debt will take a massive hit. Slashing tax revenue at the same time as bailing out a bunch of states is going to be ugly.

Why would be bail out blue States?

Oh yes that's right, Trump isn't a real President

That state can be absorbed by surrounding states.. No reason to save it.

 

[TheOldSchool]

If Trump's tax cuts really do cause states to default, then the national debt will take a massive hit. Slashing tax revenue at the same time as bailing out a bunch of states is going to be ugly.

Why would be bail out blue States?

Oh yes that's right, Trump isn't a real President

That state can be absorbed by surrounding states.. No reason to save it.

Well, I suppose that would lessen weaknesses of the electoral college. I'm okay with that plan.

 

[william the wie]

If Trump's tax cuts really do cause states to default, then the national debt will take a massive hit. Slashing tax revenue at the same time as bailing out a bunch of states is going to be ugly.

Why would be bail out blue States?

If Trump's tax cuts really do cause states to default, then the national debt will take a massive hit. Slashing tax revenue at the same time as bailing out a bunch of states is going to be ugly.

Why would be bail out blue States?

maybe after 2018, why do you think the Rs demonstrated such discipline on the tax bill? The SALT differential will discredit the Ds and Trump can blame it all on Ryan and McConnel after they retire.

 

[william the wie]

Like Hoover being blamed for the WWI era land boom that led to overfarming and therefore the dust bowl blue states blowing up while the red states boom is going to be a great contrast 2018 and on.

 

[BradVesp]

For bankruptcy, true. Not for insolvency, according to Prof Giertz-
"States can't go bankrupt, but they can become insolvent since they can't pay their bills. The question then is, what do you do then?" Giertz said.
Professor J. Fred Giertz, an economist who is director of the University of Illinois' Institute of Government and public Affairs.
State can't declare bankruptcy

I could re-post the reason it can't be Illinois. Basically, there's no mechanism for the state legislature, judiciary, or governor to declare insolvency nor bankruptcy.
(honestly, though, there's a lot I don't know)

Insolvency occurs when the bondholders refuse to roll over the debt. Then they, the non IL resident bond holders sue in federal court under the takings cause and Caterpillar and the commodities markets move elsewhere. That is when the state finds a way to get into Chapter 3 come hell or high water.

If I understand you correctly then some private industries would get control over state assets. I wonder where the legislature would meet.

It's possible that there'd be less money coming in then there is needed to go out. Not unlike what happened last year when there was no budget. If it's structural and the tax rate couldn't be changed (and it would) then the economy would get reshaped. There's a lot of corn that leaves the state to other places in the country and world. The price could rise until it met population demand. Other then that, yeah, people would leave until there's were enough left to pay. Hopefully, in the process, we'd have different elected officials who'd reduce their income some.
This is really hypothetical. The tax rates would probably go up. They're still pretty low... but I don't pay any real estate or other property taxes, so maybe I'm missing some information.
The current problems are only indirectly financial. There's a lot of people and not enough real meaningful work. One guy's plow does more then enought work for ten people. That's my current complaint. I can imagine others, but I'd be inventing more problems that can't be solved just to have invented problems; it's redundant - and tiring.

 

[task0778]

For bankruptcy, true. Not for insolvency, according to Prof Giertz-
"States can't go bankrupt, but they can become insolvent since they can't pay their bills. The question then is, what do you do then?" Giertz said.
Professor J. Fred Giertz, an economist who is director of the University of Illinois' Institute of Government and public Affairs.
State can't declare bankruptcy

I could re-post the reason it can't be Illinois. Basically, there's no mechanism for the state legislature, judiciary, or governor to declare insolvency nor bankruptcy.
(honestly, though, there's a lot I don't know)

Insolvency occurs when the bondholders refuse to roll over the debt. Then they, the non IL resident bond holders sue in federal court under the takings cause and Caterpillar and the commodities markets move elsewhere. That is when the state finds a way to get into Chapter 3 come hell or high water.

Are you referring to Title III under the PROMESA law? I thought that legislation specifically excludes US states from any standing.

 

[william the wie]

In CA that is what I have heard claimed will happen. IL has not collateralized government assets so far as I know. The loss of state parks and industries is the most likely outcome. General welfare funds may be cut as well but if the takings clause gets invoked the federal judge handling the case can hand out warrants and subpoenas like party favors to determine if the state has been looted by the state and local governments. The IL state legislature and IL congressional delegation will try to get themselves into Chapter three to avoid that and not being a lawyer and certainly not part of the IL BAR I don't know if that is possible. Best guess is a lot of politicians will lose their estates and their freedom.

 

[william the wie]

For bankruptcy, true. Not for insolvency, according to Prof Giertz-
"States can't go bankrupt, but they can become insolvent since they can't pay their bills. The question then is, what do you do then?" Giertz said.
Professor J. Fred Giertz, an economist who is director of the University of Illinois' Institute of Government and public Affairs.
State can't declare bankruptcy

I could re-post the reason it can't be Illinois. Basically, there's no mechanism for the state legislature, judiciary, or governor to declare insolvency nor bankruptcy.
(honestly, though, there's a lot I don't know)

Insolvency occurs when the bondholders refuse to roll over the debt. Then they, the non IL resident bond holders sue in federal court under the takings cause and Caterpillar and the commodities markets move elsewhere. That is when the state finds a way to get into Chapter 3 come hell or high water.

Are you referring to Title III under the PROMESA law? I thought that legislation specifically excludes US states from any standing.

For bankruptcy, true. Not for insolvency, according to Prof Giertz-
"States can't go bankrupt, but they can become insolvent since they can't pay their bills. The question then is, what do you do then?" Giertz said.
Professor J. Fred Giertz, an economist who is director of the University of Illinois' Institute of Government and public Affairs.
State can't declare bankruptcy

I could re-post the reason it can't be Illinois. Basically, there's no mechanism for the state legislature, judiciary, or governor to declare insolvency nor bankruptcy.
(honestly, though, there's a lot I don't know)

Insolvency occurs when the bondholders refuse to roll over the debt. Then they, the non IL resident bond holders sue in federal court under the takings cause and Caterpillar and the commodities markets move elsewhere. That is when the state finds a way to get into Chapter 3 come hell or high water.

Are you referring to Title III under the PROMESA law? I thought that legislation specifically excludes US states from any standing.

For bankruptcy, true. Not for insolvency, according to Prof Giertz-
"States can't go bankrupt, but they can become insolvent since they can't pay their bills. The question then is, what do you do then?" Giertz said.
Professor J. Fred Giertz, an economist who is director of the University of Illinois' Institute of Government and public Affairs.
State can't declare bankruptcy

I could re-post the reason it can't be Illinois. Basically, there's no mechanism for the state legislature, judiciary, or governor to declare insolvency nor bankruptcy.
(honestly, though, there's a lot I don't know)

Insolvency occurs when the bondholders refuse to roll over the debt. Then they, the non IL resident bond holders sue in federal court under the takings cause and Caterpillar and the commodities markets move elsewhere. That is when the state finds a way to get into Chapter 3 come hell or high water.

Are you referring to Title III under the PROMESA law? I thought that legislation specifically excludes US states from any standing.

I didn't say they would succeed but the IL politicians are less likely to go to jail under bankruptcy so if there is some loophole such as the one given to PR, they will seek it.

 

[task0778]

For bankruptcy, true. Not for insolvency, according to Prof Giertz-
"States can't go bankrupt, but they can become insolvent since they can't pay their bills. The question then is, what do you do then?" Giertz said.
Professor J. Fred Giertz, an economist who is director of the University of Illinois' Institute of Government and public Affairs.
State can't declare bankruptcy

I could re-post the reason it can't be Illinois. Basically, there's no mechanism for the state legislature, judiciary, or governor to declare insolvency nor bankruptcy.
(honestly, though, there's a lot I don't know)

Insolvency occurs when the bondholders refuse to roll over the debt. Then they, the non IL resident bond holders sue in federal court under the takings cause and Caterpillar and the commodities markets move elsewhere. That is when the state finds a way to get into Chapter 3 come hell or high water.

Are you referring to Title III under the PROMESA law? I thought that legislation specifically excludes US states from any standing.

For bankruptcy, true. Not for insolvency, according to Prof Giertz-
"States can't go bankrupt, but they can become insolvent since they can't pay their bills. The question then is, what do you do then?" Giertz said.
Professor J. Fred Giertz, an economist who is director of the University of Illinois' Institute of Government and public Affairs.
State can't declare bankruptcy

I could re-post the reason it can't be Illinois. Basically, there's no mechanism for the state legislature, judiciary, or governor to declare insolvency nor bankruptcy.
(honestly, though, there's a lot I don't know)

Insolvency occurs when the bondholders refuse to roll over the debt. Then they, the non IL resident bond holders sue in federal court under the takings cause and Caterpillar and the commodities markets move elsewhere. That is when the state finds a way to get into Chapter 3 come hell or high water.

Are you referring to Title III under the PROMESA law? I thought that legislation specifically excludes US states from any standing.

For bankruptcy, true. Not for insolvency, according to Prof Giertz-
"States can't go bankrupt, but they can become insolvent since they can't pay their bills. The question then is, what do you do then?" Giertz said.
Professor J. Fred Giertz, an economist who is director of the University of Illinois' Institute of Government and public Affairs.
State can't declare bankruptcy

I could re-post the reason it can't be Illinois. Basically, there's no mechanism for the state legislature, judiciary, or governor to declare insolvency nor bankruptcy.
(honestly, though, there's a lot I don't know)

Insolvency occurs when the bondholders refuse to roll over the debt. Then they, the non IL resident bond holders sue in federal court under the takings cause and Caterpillar and the commodities markets move elsewhere. That is when the state finds a way to get into Chapter 3 come hell or high water.

Are you referring to Title III under the PROMESA law? I thought that legislation specifically excludes US states from any standing.

I didn't say they would succeed but the IL politicians are less likely to go to jail under bankruptcy so if there is some loophole such as the one given to PR, they will seek it.

I don't think they'll find any loopholes that allow them to get around the Contracts clause in the Constitution or the 10th amendment. It's hard to see how the federal gov't could legally bailout an insolvent state that would survive a court challenge, unless maybe the composition of the SCOTUS becomes 5-4 liberal.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Oh wow, guess we better pack up and leave!!
Hmmmm, we just bought in 2014 and we already have enough increased valuation in the house that we could buy back our old TX house 100% CASH and then flip it and make even more.

OMG how horrible it is to live out here....boooo hooooo!!!

(insert sarky emoticon here)

 

[asaratis]

Where are you getting your stats? Real estate is going up here in Cali.

You never even bother to pay attention to your own state politics?


https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings/government/fiscal-stability



Best States for Fiscal Stability
Fiscal Stability Rank State
#1 ND
#2 WY
#3 TX
#4 NC
#5 SD
#6 VT
#7 TN
#8 IN
#9 UT
#10 FL
#11 VA
#12 ID
#13 DE
#14 GA
#15 WI
#16 IA
#17 MD
#18 WA
#19 SC
#20 NH
#21 MO
#22 NY
#23 NE
#24 CO
#25 AK
#26 OK
#27 MN
#28 AR
#29 MA
#30 WV
#31 MI
#32 AZ
#33 MT
#34 AL
#35 OR
#36 KS
#37 RI
#38 ME
#39 NM
#40 PA
#41 HI
#42 OH
#43 CA
#44 NV
#45 MS
#46 LA
#47 CT
#48 KY
#49 NJ
#50 IL

Did you actually read it? CA is #23 on the Best states list.

From your link.

"California, the most populous state in the nation, is home to Hollywood’s stars, Silicon Valley’s technology, Napa Valley’s wines and ancient Redwood and Sequoia forests. The Golden State also is one of the country’s wealthiest and most socially and politically influential, and has been since it became a state nearly 170 years ago."

Being the most populous state in the union is not necessarily a good thing. It is the quality and education of the populace that makes a state thrive.

Being the home to Hollywood's stars means nothing. People who range from horrendous to mediocre to great at pretending to be someone else as they act out a script written by someone else, then pat each other on the back for their edited performances and their movie's success at relieving the hard working public of millions of dollars in exchange for overpriced admissions and overpriced concessions at a crowded theater seem to think that all makes their political opinions worthy of praise. Very few Hollywood stars could ever survive a live stage play.

With an average IQ of 95.5 (third from the bottom of the list), California is doomed to eventual failure despite its influx of cheap labor resulting from its recent official declaration of being a sanctuary state. As it attracts more and more criminals, gang members and even lower IQ residents, it will drop in the list of attractive states for enlightened outsiders to consider for permanent residence. As the state treasury is drained by the costs of supporting low income, unskilled, and non-working voters, the liberal godfathers of the state will impose even higher taxes that will trigger yet even higher rates of outgoing citizens seeking sane government in other states.

California planted its very own hanging tree decades ago and has put the noose around its own neck. Now it is fertilizing and watering the tree. It is only a matter of time 'til its feet leave the ground.

US States by Average IQ

 

[usmbguest5318]

IL is tiptoeing to junk status and has been doing so for decades.

I presume you are referring to the debt securities issued by those states? If so, you do realize that many states and lesser jurisdictions issue debt that's "junk" simply because the issuers don't submit the issue for review. Are CA and IL public debt issuers among those entities? Off the top of my head, I don't know. Perhaps you do?

 

[ChrisL]

This might be a little off topic, but I just wanted to say that I saw a video somewhere on this site about Skid Row in Los Angeles. OMG, I am a very sheltered person because I have NEVER seen anything like that in my life. I couldn't even believe that was a part of America, really. There are just streets and streets of tents and homeless people, druggies, prostitutes that go on for miles and miles. My boyfriend made an interesting statement about it, saying that people have lost their pride and dignity. Back in the day, people wanted to work and be good contributing members to their communities. Now, with drugs and other things, there are people who actually CHOOSE to be homeless and continue to do drugs or live a criminal lifestyle.