Epsilon Delta
Jedi Master
Taxes, or lack thereof, only have a minimal effect on employment. The Bush tax cuts, like some claim here, did not cause the employment crisis currently underway - but lowering taxes is going to do nothing to solve it either. For example, in 2006 Denmark's unemployment was 3.7%, yet taxes were 50% of GDP - it was the most highly taxed country in the world. Switzerland, with barely half of Denmark's taxes, had virtually the same level of unemployment.
A plan that relies on tax cuts to "stimulate" the economy is going to fail for a number of reasons. 1) There has never been any evidence to support that tax cuts alone stimulate employment growth, and 2) tax cuts heighten, not lessen, the possibility of default on the medium term and thereby contribute to uncertainty: less revenue means less possibility of paying down the debt means more uncertainty means less investment to create jobs.
Some might claim that tax cuts would stimulate the demand side of the equation, but this may not be the case for the following reason: there would be a transfer of purchasing power from the government to individuals and businesses, which under normal circumstances would spike demand, consumption, and employment. Under an uncertain climate, however, it makes infinitely more sense for individuals and corporations to save their money. It makes more sense for people to save their purchasing power rather than to utilize it; the economy remains in the tank because demand is not stimulated and unemployment remains high and even higher, because the government would have an incentive to keep spending - so that unemployment stabilizes. It does not mean that government knows hows to spend money better than people, it's simply a matter of the incentives they face. For people and businesses, what makes sense is to save their money, it's not up to them to bring down the unemployment rate by spending and creating demand - it does not make sense for the individual to do this under the current circumstances. But it does make sense for the government to do so - because otherwise, if unemployment is high or rising, it gets voted out of office.
As long as there's the looming uncertainty of a US default, businesses are not going to invest in job creation. One way to reduce this uncertainty would be by raising taxes, not lowering them. The other side would be to cut spending, but then the problem arises as to what spending items should be cut and what effect is this going to have? Regardless of what gets cut, what will result is in less demand and less employment, at the least in the short term, but some mild cutting would work to appease investors (maybe). Dismantling things like Medicare, Medicaid, or social security would likely have the effect to frighten them more and keep them from investing, considering the unrest that would ensue.
Let's say that a potential republican plan involves the two main things: cutting taxes and cutting spending. For this to make any sense in the context of deficit reduction, spending cuts will need to be considerably larger so that it can cut the current budget deficit and the further fall in revenue from any decrease in taxes - this will require at least halving government spending. This would ostensibly include dismantling of Medicare and Medicaid (ie, like the Ryan plan) and lying off a considerable portion of the 2.8 million federal government employees (not counting the further 5 million state employees and 12 million local government employees)
Like I said above, no matter what way you look at it, what this results in, in the short run, is a gigantic fall in demand and a sharp increase in employment. Tax receipts will go down further, necessitating greater cuts in spending and virtually gutting the federal government entirely. This works really well if that is what the end goal of the Conservative agenda is - no taxes, no spending, no government. Should work just swell. The question is only a matter of time - will the magic of the newly "liberated" markets readjust to the massive contraction in GDP in long run, when we're all dead, or sooner? Will employment recover after 5 years, 10 years or 50 years of the economic catastrophe? Nobody knows, but one can always be willing to take a good gamble on it. Because the point is that it would be a catastrophe, and nobody can deny that it would be - what conservatives could argue, however, is that after the earth-shattering collapse a new society of liberated markets and rugged individualism will arise to lead America down a path of eternal glory and freedom. All Americans have to do is trust them.
It doesn't even matter, democrat "spending" measures are useless if their programs are not being funded by the House..
Thats why this economy is not as fucked as it could be. Democrats would tax and spend until income tax is 95% if they had it their way...
Wait until Republicans/libertarians take the senate in 2012 and destroy all of Pelosi and Obamafucks spending bills...
I don't believe democrats comprehend what a private sector actually is - to them our economy is public sector....
Well, I don't share your optimism that the Republicans are going to do any of that, especially if a republican is elected president.
If they did do that, though, as perfectly reasonable as it might be, it's not going to solve your economic crisis.