If Kerry Wins: Euros Dilema

[Annie]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1963&e=11&u=/nm/20041001/pl_nm/campaign_europe_dc

Europe Flattered, Unnerved by Kerry Overtures

Fri Oct 1, 1:14 PM ET

By Mark John

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - U.S. presidential contender John Kerry (news - web sites) will have won yet more admirers in Europe with his pledge during a campaign debate to restore alliances damaged by the transatlantic split over the Iraq (news - web sites) war.


Reuters Photo




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But his forthright overtures may also prompt squirming in European governments as they realize a Kerry victory on Nov. 2 would force them to show willing by offering more help to end the violence there, analysts said Friday.


"Kerry created a mood of empathy for the Europeans, which is no surprise," said Annette Heuser, director of the Bertelsmann Foundation think-tank, of a debate Thursday pitting President Bush (news - web sites) against his Democratic rival.


"But I would warn Europeans it would then be up to us to deliver," she said, adding that Kerry's popularity with the European public could make it harder for war opponents such as France and Germany to ignore future calls for military help.


Iraq dominated much of a fierce foreign policy debate staged in Florida. Bush cast doubt on Kerry's ability to lead America in dangerous times while Kerry argued the president had left U.S. international partnerships "in shatters."


European analysts said it was unsurprising that in a debate aimed at domestic voters neither candidate offered much detail on how Washington would engage with Europe on Iran's nuclear ambitions, Middle East peace, or on other foreign policy areas.


Karsten Voigt, Berlin's coordinator of German-U.S. ties, said the debate would have served to confirm the gut preference of most Europeans in favor of Kerry, illustrated by a French poll Friday giving the Democrat nearly 90 percent support.


"Because in Europe, unlike in America, a lot of people were skeptical about the war, you'll probably find that the majority of Europeans found Kerry more convincing," Voigt told Reuters Television, doubting the debate would affect U.S. voting.


WHERE'S THE EXIT STRATEGY?


Arguing that Bush's decision to invade Iraq without the blessing of the U.N. Security Council had left the United States with "90 percent of the casualties and 90 percent of the cost," Kerry said it was time to get help.


"I think we need a president who has the credibility to bring the allies back to the table and to do what's necessary to make it so America isn't doing this alone," he said, pledging to invite allies to a summit on Iraq.


But while anti-war capitals such as Paris or Berlin -- which have ruled out any troop presence in Iraq -- welcome such displays of multilateralism, they would also demand a clear Iraq exit strategy from Kerry if he was elected.


"He fails to explain how he would suddenly manage to draw other allies to Iraq. That's not convincing. He fails to say how he would do it in concrete terms," said Bruno Tertrais, analyst at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris.


Bertelsmann's Heuser suggested that such unresolved issues might in the end convince some European officials it would be simpler to deal with a second Bush administration.


"Bush demonstrated the same unlistening approach (in the debate) as we have seen from him. But cynically speaking, it might be more comfortable for European governments if he were reelected," she added.