I have a question for those of you smarter than me about the economy...

[Lakhota]

No recovery. Never.
In order for an economy to flourish a country has to produce something other than armament................UNLESS, there's a world war.

Speaking of which, there are two things that concern me most about America's slow economic recovery:

1. Another successful terrorist attack on American soil.

2. Israel going off the deep end - like attacking Iran.

 

[bripat9643]

Macroeconomic forecasting is notoriously unreliable. No one can say with certainty that the economy will recover by a certain time.

Amen!

But they can determine what the temperature of the Earth will be 50 years from now?

Yeah, right.

 

[bripat9643]

Speaking of which, there are two things that concern me most about America's slow economic recovery:

1. Another successful terrorist attack on American soil.

2. Israel going off the deep end - like attacking Iran.

You're forgetting the most important potential for disaster: Obama getting a 2nd term.

 

[Rozman]

No recovery. Never.
In order for an economy to flourish a country has to produce something other than armament................UNLESS, there's a world war.

Speaking of which, there are two things that concern me most about America's slow economic recovery:

1. Another successful terrorist attack on American soil.

2. Israel going off the deep end - like attacking Iran.

I can only hope #1 never happens again although unlikely...

On # 2 those including this President who doesn't seem to have a problem with Iran going
nuke happy. Israel will have no choice but to attack Iran before they attack Israel...

This is gonna get crazy and no one seems to give a shit about it now except Israel...

 

[editec]

Do those of you working in the economic side see a turn around anytime soon?

I don't see the macroconomy turning around soon.

But your business is more dependent on what your local economy looks like.

This economic meltdown in RE isn't the same in every region. For example, here in Maine RE sales were up this year compared to last, even though the median price of homes sold was down.

What are the true indicators I should be watching?

We'd probably need to know a lot more about your business to answer that.


But I'd be looking at regional economic indicators for real estate sales -- existing home sales, new home starts, what the local banks are like when it comes to lending for RE or home imporvement

Also what was your customer base when times were good? What is THEIR situation like, now?

Are they recovering?

If not then it isn't likely your business will pick up unless you find can target another market needing your services.

ARe you in a place where the banks are holding a lot of RE, for example?

If so perhaps you can approach banks to manage (and repair ) the properties that they currently are holding.

You might also consider working with banks to find potential rental properties that need work that you might purchase and fix up as additional revenue while you're waiting for the RE sales to turn around, too.

You'd be going into a different aspect of RE, of course, but since you can rehab RE cheaper than most people can, you might find some great buys in that market, too.

I'd definitely start with the banks to see if there's potential there to work with them.

Become their problem solver and I'll bet you'd end up with more work than you can handle if you're in an area hard hit with foreclosures and evictions.

 

[editec]

Do those of you working in the economic side see a turn around anytime soon?

I don't see the macroconomy turning around soon.

But your business is more dependent on what your local economy looks like.

This economic meltdown in RE isn't the same in every region. For example, here in Maine RE sales were up this year compared to last, even though the median price of homes sold was down.

What are the true indicators I should be watching?

We'd probably need to know a lot more about your business to answer that.


But I'd be looking at regional economic indicators for real estate sales -- existing home sales, new home starts, what the local banks are like when it comes to lending for RE or home imporvement

Also what was your customer base when times were good? What is THEIR situation like, now?

Are they recovering?

If not then it isn't likely your business will pick up unless you find can target another market needing your services.

ARe you in a place where the banks are holding a lot of RE, for example?

If so perhaps you can approach banks to manage (and repair ) the properties that they currently are holding.

You might also consider working with banks to find potential rental properties that need work that you might purchase and fix up as additional revenue while you're waiting for the RE sales to turn around, too.

You'd be going into a different aspect of RE, of course, but since you can rehab RE cheaper than most people can, you might find some great buys in that market, too.

I'd definitely start with the banks to see if there's potential there to work with them.

Become their problem solver and I'll bet you'd end up with more work than you can handle if you're in an area hard hit with foreclosures and evictions.

 

[The Rabbi]

We are headed for the double dip all the lefties said would never happen. Europe is a shambles and when the EU gov'ts default, our banks will get hit since they are holding sovereign debt. China is slowing down. The flash measure of chinese factory output was the lowest it's been in 30 years. Even if we were in good shape, these would augur poorly for us.
As it is, the gov't has tried to prop up the housing market, which provides many jobs, and in so doing has prevented a bottom. Now there is way too much unsold pre-foreclosure inventory. Businesses are keeping their heads down, accumlating cash and waiting for it all to be over.
Obama will lose the election, the GOP will sweep both branches and everyone will beathe a sigh of relief.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Dang, some of you are truly the early bird. Anyhow as I expected there seems to be no agreement about what we need or what will happen. I wanted to start flipping houses a few years ago but never really looked into it much deeper. If I did it I would want to do it with upper end homes where the types of upgrades that I enjoy doing would be justified. Problem is I just don't have access to that kind of capital.

I'm going to try to dig around for local websites today. Wish there was a network out there to connect people with capital to people with a skillset.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

I'm sure you're aware of information like this, but here it is anyway...

Facts And Figures - Economic Outlook - Remodeling Industry News and Archive Information for Remodelers - Remodeling Magazine

They are remodeling the remodeling website. Lol

It's down

 

[Chris]

Dang, some of you are truly the early bird. Anyhow as I expected there seems to be no agreement about what we need or what will happen. I wanted to start flipping houses a few years ago but never really looked into it much deeper. If I did it I would want to do it with upper end homes where the types of upgrades that I enjoy doing would be justified. Problem is I just don't have access to that kind of capital.

I'm going to try to dig around for local websites today. Wish there was a network out there to connect people with capital to people with a skillset.

If you want to flip houses, the best time to buy them is in December when demand is the slowest.

Then sell them in the spring and summer when demand is the highest.

 

[Sallow]

No recovery. Never.
In order for an economy to flourish a country has to produce something other than armament................UNLESS, there's a world war.

Speaking of which, there are two things that concern me most about America's slow economic recovery:

1. Another successful terrorist attack on American soil.

2. Israel going off the deep end - like attacking Iran.

I can only hope #1 never happens again although unlikely...

On # 2 those including this President who doesn't seem to have a problem with Iran going
nuke happy. Israel will have no choice but to attack Iran before they attack Israel...

This is gonna get crazy and no one seems to give a shit about it now except Israel...

Iran will never initiate an attack.

 

[strollingbones]

i love questions addressed to everyone.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Speaking of which, there are two things that concern me most about America's slow economic recovery:

1. Another successful terrorist attack on American soil.

2. Israel going off the deep end - like attacking Iran.

I can only hope #1 never happens again although unlikely...

On # 2 those including this President who doesn't seem to have a problem with Iran going
nuke happy. Israel will have no choice but to attack Iran before they attack Israel...

This is gonna get crazy and no one seems to give a shit about it now except Israel...

Iran will never initiate an attack.

I hate to drag my own topic off course but why do you feel confident enough to make that statement? And do you also believe Iran wouldn't sell or give nukes to a terrorist?

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

i love questions addressed to everyone.

Haha I get it.

Nice joke

 

[The Rabbi]

I can only hope #1 never happens again although unlikely...

On # 2 those including this President who doesn't seem to have a problem with Iran going
nuke happy. Israel will have no choice but to attack Iran before they attack Israel...

This is gonna get crazy and no one seems to give a shit about it now except Israel...

Iran will never initiate an attack.

I hate to drag my own topic off course but why do you feel confident enough to make that statement? And do you also believe Iran wouldn't sell or give nukes to a terrorist?

Iran is a peace-loving state that has never invaded another country. Just ask Ron paul.

 

[Truthseeker420]

My friends in the real estate business are gearing up for a good 2012/13 once Obama's one miserable historically bad term ends

The Economy crashed under Bush.

 

[The Rabbi]

My friends in the real estate business are gearing up for a good 2012/13 once Obama's one miserable historically bad term ends

The Economy crashed under Bush.

The economy crashed under Clinton and Bush had it back on track in 18 months.
What is Obama's record in the last 3 years?

 

[Sundial]

Do you all think we are going to have a "lost decade" like Japan?

I ask for 2 reasons.

First, although I like to consider myself well informed on politics I'm in a bit over my head with economic indicators and such. College was many years ago and what I learned then was nothing more than basics.

Second is because I'm seriously concerned about my business. I had nearly 2 decades of great growth and a customer base that grew every year. Business was so good that I pulled all my advertising about 6 years ago. I'm in the upper end of the remodeling business and most of my clients are well off but now jobs are scarce and even the ones available will cut you off at the knees to save a buck. It didn't used to be that way. For every 4 jobs I bid I got 3 without haggling just off my reputation. Now I've entered advertising contracts again with not much noticeable difference.

I can probably manage one more winter like the last two I've had but beyond that I may be in real trouble. I don't know what to do. Clearly I have to weather the winter but I don't want to go down with a sinking ship. My skillset is very broad but limited to my field. I was offered a very tidy sum to sell my business about 5 years ago but with the market the way it is I'm sure that amount is worth half what it was.

Do those of you working in the economic side see a turn around anytime soon? What are the true indicators I should be watching? I don't want partisan bullshit, I need real ideas and thoughts.

Ps. I've downsized as much as possible already so cutting expenses isn't really an option.

I have an MBA and graduated at the top of my class. However, I really don't have a clue about the economic future - mostly because it's now so global in nature. Just one little foreign country can send the markets into a tailspin. I won't waste your time with economic analyses and indicators. Personally, I think we're pretty much fucked for the foreseeable future. I hope I'm wrong...

You said you don't want partisan bullshit, and I understand. HOWEVER, partisan bullshit is hurting our economic recovery much more than it's helping. The biggest problem I see is that political horses are hooked up at both ends of the economic wagon.

Seriously, best wishes in your business. BTW, I certainly don't think I'm smarter than you about the economy.

NOTE: I think Sundial pretty well summed it up above - we're in a slow recovery.

You agreed with Sundial that we need high taxes and government spending? You should ask for a refund.

Our only hope, assuming we make it past the coming EU collapse, is to stabilize the US economy by embracing free enterprise. It works every time, every place. Every the ChiComs and Vietnamese embrace it. Once Obama and the Dems are soundly defeated we will get back on track.

My friends in the real estate business are the biggest developers in NYC and they're gearing up for Obama being a one-termer

You should look at what I said again - Hint: You're 50% wrong.

 

[Lakhota]

I'm sure you're aware of information like this, but here it is anyway...

Facts And Figures - Economic Outlook - Remodeling Industry News and Archive Information for Remodelers - Remodeling Magazine

They are remodeling the remodeling website. Lol

It's down

Sorry about that. There are just too many variables in the current economy for me to offer any further suggestions. My guess is that many of us are having problems keeping up. Best wishes...

 

[CrusaderFrank]

My friends in the real estate business are gearing up for a good 2012/13 once Obama's one miserable historically bad term ends

The Economy crashed under Bush.

Is that a real poncho? I mean is that a Mexican poncho or is that a Sears poncho?