I have a question for those of you smarter than me about the economy...

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Do you all think we are going to have a "lost decade" like Japan?

I ask for 2 reasons.

First, although I like to consider myself well informed on politics I'm in a bit over my head with economic indicators and such. College was many years ago and what I learned then was nothing more than basics.

Second is because I'm seriously concerned about my business. I had nearly 2 decades of great growth and a customer base that grew every year. Business was so good that I pulled all my advertising about 6 years ago. I'm in the upper end of the remodeling business and most of my clients are well off but now jobs are scarce and even the ones available will cut you off at the knees to save a buck. It didn't used to be that way. For every 4 jobs I bid I got 3 without haggling just off my reputation. Now I've entered advertising contracts again with not much noticeable difference.

I can probably manage one more winter like the last two I've had but beyond that I may be in real trouble. I don't know what to do. Clearly I have to weather the winter but I don't want to go down with a sinking ship. My skillset is very broad but limited to my field. I was offered a very tidy sum to sell my business about 5 years ago but with the market the way it is I'm sure that amount is worth half what it was.

Do those of you working in the economic side see a turn around anytime soon? What are the true indicators I should be watching? I don't want partisan bullshit, I need real ideas and thoughts.

Ps. I've downsized as much as possible already so cutting expenses isn't really an option.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

My friends in the real estate business are gearing up for a good 2012/13 once Obama's one miserable historically bad term ends

 

[Sundial]

We're in a slow but gradually accelerating recovery. Short of a substantial tax increase or cut in government spending, you should expect the national economy to continue to improve.

 

[Lakhota]

Do you all think we are going to have a "lost decade" like Japan?

I ask for 2 reasons.

First, although I like to consider myself well informed on politics I'm in a bit over my head with economic indicators and such. College was many years ago and what I learned then was nothing more than basics.

Second is because I'm seriously concerned about my business. I had nearly 2 decades of great growth and a customer base that grew every year. Business was so good that I pulled all my advertising about 6 years ago. I'm in the upper end of the remodeling business and most of my clients are well off but now jobs are scarce and even the ones available will cut you off at the knees to save a buck. It didn't used to be that way. For every 4 jobs I bid I got 3 without haggling just off my reputation. Now I've entered advertising contracts again with not much noticeable difference.

I can probably manage one more winter like the last two I've had but beyond that I may be in real trouble. I don't know what to do. Clearly I have to weather the winter but I don't want to go down with a sinking ship. My skillset is very broad but limited to my field. I was offered a very tidy sum to sell my business about 5 years ago but with the market the way it is I'm sure that amount is worth half what it was.

Do those of you working in the economic side see a turn around anytime soon? What are the true indicators I should be watching? I don't want partisan bullshit, I need real ideas and thoughts.

Ps. I've downsized as much as possible already so cutting expenses isn't really an option.

I have an MBA and graduated at the top of my class. However, I really don't have a clue about the economic future - mostly because it's now so global in nature. Just one little foreign country can send the markets into a tailspin. I won't waste your time with economic analyses and indicators. Personally, I think we're pretty much fucked for the foreseeable future. I hope I'm wrong...

You said you don't want partisan bullshit, and I understand. HOWEVER, partisan bullshit is hurting our economic recovery much more than it's helping. The biggest problem I see is that political horses are hooked up at both ends of the economic wagon.

Seriously, best wishes in your business. BTW, I certainly don't think I'm smarter than you about the economy.

NOTE: I think Sundial pretty well summed it up above - we're in a slow recovery.

 

[Lakhota]

Grampa, are you a member of a business/trade association relating to your remodeling business such as NARI? If not, could you get access to any of their business economic forecasts?

National Association of the Remodeling Industry (NARI)- Most Asked Questions of Home Improvement Contractors

 

[Lakhota]

I'm sure you're aware of information like this, but here it is anyway...

Facts And Figures - Economic Outlook - Remodeling Industry News and Archive Information for Remodelers - Remodeling Magazine

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Grampa, are you a member of a business/trade association relating to your remodeling business such as NARI? If not, could you get access to any of their business economic forecasts?

National Association of the Remodeling Industry (NARI)- Most Asked Questions of Home Improvement Contractors

Years ago I was a member of several groups. I quickly discovered it was nothing more than a marketing ploy for profit. I have however had great success with Angieslist. For all the money I pumped into other organizations I've spent next to nothing with AL and gotten back 10 fold because its consumer driven rather than contractor driven.

I recently did a job for the marketing director for Fox4 News and somehow ended up on a list. I get calls frequently now but money is to tight to persue the offers. Which sucks because the network offered to give me first page space on their website for just under 300 a month. But with current commitments its just too much of a risk.

 

[Lakhota]

Grampa, are you a member of a business/trade association relating to your remodeling business such as NARI? If not, could you get access to any of their business economic forecasts?

National Association of the Remodeling Industry (NARI)- Most Asked Questions of Home Improvement Contractors

Years ago I was a member of several groups. I quickly discovered it was nothing more than a marketing ploy for profit. I have however had great success with Angieslist. For all the money I pumped into other organizations I've spent next to nothing with AL and gotten back 10 fold because its consumer driven rather than contractor driven.

I recently did a job for the marketing director for Fox4 News and somehow ended up on a list. I get calls frequently now but money is to tight to persue the offers. Which sucks because the network offered to give me first page space on their website for just under 300 a month. But with current commitments its just too much of a risk.

I understand. Wish I could be of more help. You sound pretty savvy about your business. Maybe you'll get some good advice from other posters. Maybe you'll wish to seek out a good consultant in the future - if you feel the need.

 

[Euro]

Do you all think we are going to have a "lost decade" like Japan?

I ask for 2 reasons.

First, although I like to consider myself well informed on politics I'm in a bit over my head with economic indicators and such. College was many years ago and what I learned then was nothing more than basics.

Second is because I'm seriously concerned about my business. I had nearly 2 decades of great growth and a customer base that grew every year. Business was so good that I pulled all my advertising about 6 years ago. I'm in the upper end of the remodeling business and most of my clients are well off but now jobs are scarce and even the ones available will cut you off at the knees to save a buck. It didn't used to be that way. For every 4 jobs I bid I got 3 without haggling just off my reputation. Now I've entered advertising contracts again with not much noticeable difference.

I can probably manage one more winter like the last two I've had but beyond that I may be in real trouble. I don't know what to do. Clearly I have to weather the winter but I don't want to go down with a sinking ship. My skillset is very broad but limited to my field. I was offered a very tidy sum to sell my business about 5 years ago but with the market the way it is I'm sure that amount is worth half what it was.

Do those of you working in the economic side see a turn around anytime soon? What are the true indicators I should be watching? I don't want partisan bullshit, I need real ideas and thoughts.

Ps. I've downsized as much as possible already so cutting expenses isn't really an option.

With the taxing and spending policies that US practises now, their will soon be a recession.

One big problem is that money dries out in high military spending, health-care reform.
Taxing workers and small companies higher and higher, and then using the taxes from you for more government spending. Who earns on that? Big bankers, large companies that are to big to go bankrupt must be saved by taxing people higher and more government spending.

Newt Gingrich for instance are paid by Freddie mac to have a policy that benefits them. That means more taxing on people and government spending. To keep big companies and bankers satisified. Wars for instance are good business, Dick Cheney who was the director of Halliburton got large contracts in Iraq by starting the war. Other large companies also earns a lot of money on wars such as Wahington group gets large contracts builidng in iraq, they have connections with the politicians. All that by ripping of and increasing taxes on tax-payers. The money dries out since nothing is produced it just dissapers into big companies,bankers etc. A group with connection to politicians that are paid to run politics that benefits big banks like Gingrich or oil companies like Dick Cheney.
All this makes people have larger and larger debts and they are not able to spende money on consuption they have to pay debts. That way companies goes bankrupt.
Gingrich says he received Freddie Mac compensation - Yahoo! News

But it depends who you vote for, with Ron Paul as president their will be a change.

 

[Lakhota]

Another obvious question while I'm thinking about it: Do you communicate with fellow professionals on any type contractor/remodeling message boards? Here's one I was just looking at...

Contractor Talk - Professional Construction & Remodeling Forum, News, Reviews, and Blogs | Contractor Talk

 

[ladyliberal]

Best of luck to you in your business dealings. I don't know how helpful this could be to you (and I claim no particular economic credentials), but here are some thoughts:

- For any particular business, the overall state of the economy will only be one of many factors which determines profitability.

- Economies are somewhat self-stabilizing and tend to return to their long-term levels of GDP growth, unemployment, etc.

- Macroeconomic forecasting is notoriously unreliable. No one can say with certainty that the economy will recover by a certain time.

- We are currently slowly recovering, in the sense that the economy is growing. That means that in a technical sense we are certainly not in a recession. However, it is certainly possible that another recession will occur before the economy becomes "healthy" again.

- Financial crises (such as the one from which we are recovering) are said to require five to ten years for recovery.

- A number of agencies release economic forecasts. The CBO in particular (http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12039/01-26_fy2011outlook.pdf) expects 2.8% growth in GDP for next year and "CBO expects continued strong growth in business investment, improvements in residential investment and net exports, and modest increases in spending by consumers and by state and local governments." This seems a bit optimistic to me.

- There do seem to be forecasts available for the remodeling industry in particular (EDIT: whoops, Lakhota beat me to it):
http://www.remodeling.hw.net/facts-and-figures/economic-outlook/ . The forecast for residential remodeling is "slow growth", with regional variations.

- There is a phenomenon of "pent up demand". People delay purchase of a good or service (such as remodeling) in poor economic times. However, this just shifts their demand to later time periods. Thus, demand for remodeling could improve with the passage of time even without improvements in the economy. The source quoted above expects pent-up demand to play a role in the recovery of the remodeling market.

- Japan's "lost decade" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan)) while remarkable for its duration, was (or is, if you prefer) a time of generally weak economy, not a state of continuous crisis. It affected different sectors of the economy differently. While the lost decade does resemble the current US economy in certain ways, I think it is safe to say it won't repeat itself exactly. Certainly, most forecasters think it unlikely (which doesn't mean impossible) that the US will suffer such anemic growth as Japan did.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Another obvious question while I'm thinking about it: Do you communicate with fellow professionals on any type contractor/remodeling message boards? Here's one I was just looking at...

Contractor Talk - Professional Construction & Remodeling Forum, News, Reviews, and Blogs | Contractor Talk

This may come as a shock but I've never used serious message boards before. USMB is my first. The shitty economy drove me here one day when it popped up on a question on Google search. I'm not very good navigating the net because I'm mostly on my phone. It's easy to use while I'm out and when I'm home my lazy boy and beer prevents me from going into the computer room. Lol

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

I will check the sites out tomorrow as I'm too tired to bother tonight. Too much food, family, football and movies in one day. Thanks

 

[Lakhota]

Another obvious question while I'm thinking about it: Do you communicate with fellow professionals on any type contractor/remodeling message boards? Here's one I was just looking at...

Contractor Talk - Professional Construction & Remodeling Forum, News, Reviews, and Blogs | Contractor Talk

This may come as a shock but I've never used serious message boards before. USMB is my first. The shitty economy drove me here one day when it popped up on a question on Google search. I'm not very good navigating the net because I'm mostly on my phone. It's easy to use while I'm out and when I'm home my lazy boy and beer prevents me from going into the computer room. Lol

I understand. Seriously, you may wish to consider looking at some of the message boards like I listed above. In fact, as someone who has done a little consulting work in the past - I would highly recommend it. It should help give you a broader/deeper insight into the mindset of your competition. Couldn't hurt...

 

[Lakhota]

I will check the sites out tomorrow as I'm too tired to bother tonight. Too much food, family, football and movies in one day. Thanks

You're welcome.

 

[Lakhota]

Macroeconomic forecasting is notoriously unreliable. No one can say with certainty that the economy will recover by a certain time.

Amen!

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Do you all think we are going to have a "lost decade" like Japan?

I ask for 2 reasons.

First, although I like to consider myself well informed on politics I'm in a bit over my head with economic indicators and such. College was many years ago and what I learned then was nothing more than basics.

Second is because I'm seriously concerned about my business. I had nearly 2 decades of great growth and a customer base that grew every year. Business was so good that I pulled all my advertising about 6 years ago. I'm in the upper end of the remodeling business and most of my clients are well off but now jobs are scarce and even the ones available will cut you off at the knees to save a buck. It didn't used to be that way. For every 4 jobs I bid I got 3 without haggling just off my reputation. Now I've entered advertising contracts again with not much noticeable difference.

I can probably manage one more winter like the last two I've had but beyond that I may be in real trouble. I don't know what to do. Clearly I have to weather the winter but I don't want to go down with a sinking ship. My skillset is very broad but limited to my field. I was offered a very tidy sum to sell my business about 5 years ago but with the market the way it is I'm sure that amount is worth half what it was.

Do those of you working in the economic side see a turn around anytime soon? What are the true indicators I should be watching? I don't want partisan bullshit, I need real ideas and thoughts.

Ps. I've downsized as much as possible already so cutting expenses isn't really an option.

I have an MBA and graduated at the top of my class. However, I really don't have a clue about the economic future - mostly because it's now so global in nature. Just one little foreign country can send the markets into a tailspin. I won't waste your time with economic analyses and indicators. Personally, I think we're pretty much fucked for the foreseeable future. I hope I'm wrong...

You said you don't want partisan bullshit, and I understand. HOWEVER, partisan bullshit is hurting our economic recovery much more than it's helping. The biggest problem I see is that political horses are hooked up at both ends of the economic wagon.

Seriously, best wishes in your business. BTW, I certainly don't think I'm smarter than you about the economy.

NOTE: I think Sundial pretty well summed it up above - we're in a slow recovery.

You agreed with Sundial that we need high taxes and government spending? You should ask for a refund.

Our only hope, assuming we make it past the coming EU collapse, is to stabilize the US economy by embracing free enterprise. It works every time, every place. Every the ChiComs and Vietnamese embrace it. Once Obama and the Dems are soundly defeated we will get back on track.

My friends in the real estate business are the biggest developers in NYC and they're gearing up for Obama being a one-termer

 

[Lakhota]

Do you all think we are going to have a "lost decade" like Japan?

I ask for 2 reasons.

First, although I like to consider myself well informed on politics I'm in a bit over my head with economic indicators and such. College was many years ago and what I learned then was nothing more than basics.

Second is because I'm seriously concerned about my business. I had nearly 2 decades of great growth and a customer base that grew every year. Business was so good that I pulled all my advertising about 6 years ago. I'm in the upper end of the remodeling business and most of my clients are well off but now jobs are scarce and even the ones available will cut you off at the knees to save a buck. It didn't used to be that way. For every 4 jobs I bid I got 3 without haggling just off my reputation. Now I've entered advertising contracts again with not much noticeable difference.

I can probably manage one more winter like the last two I've had but beyond that I may be in real trouble. I don't know what to do. Clearly I have to weather the winter but I don't want to go down with a sinking ship. My skillset is very broad but limited to my field. I was offered a very tidy sum to sell my business about 5 years ago but with the market the way it is I'm sure that amount is worth half what it was.

Do those of you working in the economic side see a turn around anytime soon? What are the true indicators I should be watching? I don't want partisan bullshit, I need real ideas and thoughts.

Ps. I've downsized as much as possible already so cutting expenses isn't really an option.

I have an MBA and graduated at the top of my class. However, I really don't have a clue about the economic future - mostly because it's now so global in nature. Just one little foreign country can send the markets into a tailspin. I won't waste your time with economic analyses and indicators. Personally, I think we're pretty much fucked for the foreseeable future. I hope I'm wrong...

You said you don't want partisan bullshit, and I understand. HOWEVER, partisan bullshit is hurting our economic recovery much more than it's helping. The biggest problem I see is that political horses are hooked up at both ends of the economic wagon.

Seriously, best wishes in your business. BTW, I certainly don't think I'm smarter than you about the economy.

NOTE: I think Sundial pretty well summed it up above - we're in a slow recovery.

You agreed with Sundial that we need high taxes and government spending? You should ask for a refund.

Our only hope, assuming we make it past the coming EU collapse, is to stabilize the US economy by embracing free enterprise. It works every time, every place. Every the ChiComs and Vietnamese embrace it. Once Obama and the Dems are soundly defeated we will get back on track.

My friends in the real estate business are the biggest developers in NYC and they're gearing up for Obama being a one-termer

You dishonor Grampa's request by dumping partisan bullshit on him.

 

[Lakhota]

I would guess that home improvement companies like Lowe's and Home Depot have a reasonable feel for their near-term and long-term economic future. I would ask them - specifically their corporate management people.

 

[Douger]

No recovery. Never.
In order for an economy to flourish a country has to produce something other than armament................UNLESS, there's a world war.