After much evaluation, reactions from many states, and the general overall climate of the nation, I present to you my best guess as to the ELEVEN states each candidate must win in order to win the election. This BIG ELEVEN is based on two different factors: 1. The electoral votes envolved 2. The significance of either candidate winning that state 11. Michigan- With 17 electoral votes and the largest northern based black vote residing in Detroit, you can pretty much assume that Kerry can carry this state...Unless the black community continues its tradition of staying home. Advantage: Kerry 10. Illinois- With 21 electoral votes and similar values as Michigan, Kerry can win this state for the same reasons as Michigan. With Alan Keyes being the last stand of the Republican party in Illinois?? Enough said! Advantage: Kerry 9. New Jersey- With 15 electoral votes, New Jersey has a very complicated political situation going on. With the state still reeling from the "racial profiling" scandal, along with the resignation of its governor over "personal" matters, this state could be a wildcard. A Bush win in New Jersey will send a early message that the election could come down to the very last state. Advantage: Bush 8. Pennsylvania- With 21 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is a truly neutral state. I don't see much activity there; I don't know why both candidate are ignoring this state. At this point, I could see Eddie Murphy using "The Disinguish Gentleman" approach in order to win that state. Advantage: Kerry 7. Georgia- It has 15 electoral votes; so why is this state so important? Over the last four years, the south's most embittered political battles had taken placed there. If you can't win this southern state, what makes you think you can win any other southern state? Advantage- Bush 6. Massachussetts- Keeping this simple...Kerry, if you can't win your own state.... Advantage- Kerry 5. Texas- See number (6) GW!!! Advantage- Bush 4. Ohio- 20 big votes in a state that'd suffered the worse case of umemployment in its states recent history. The issue is not how can Kerry win this state; the question is how could he possibly lose it? Advantage- Kerry 3. Florida- 27 of the most crucial votes in this year's election. A state in need of everything and had also been "dissed" about the previous election. Tread softly is my advice for both candidates. Advantage- even 2. New York- 31 huge votes that could go either way. Because of 9/11, you can see many turning to Bush. Because of its huge minority, anti-war and gay populations, you can see many turning to Kerry. Too close to call is an understatement here. Advantage- even NUMBER ONE- CALIFORNIA It's 55 electoral votes makes this state's position absolutely clear; whoever wins this state is automatically 1/4th of the way to the White House. Everything that you believe in has to be proven in this state; if you win this state, you'll win the overall respect of this nation, regardless of win or loss. John F. Kennedy, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton understood this. Advantage-Kerry. You can cite many polls that says Bush leads "fifty something" to Kerry's "forty something"; just remember one thing; Al Gore won the the overall vote in 2000. It's not how many people vote for you, it's where they vote from that counts. "New York, Texas and California" -John F. Kennedy, when asked by a senior aide, on the eve of his election, as to what he was praying for while in confession.