Hylandrdet's Big Eleven Conference

Discussion in 'Politics' started by hylandrdet, Oct 20, 2004.

  1. hylandrdet
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    hylandrdet Member

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    After much evaluation, reactions from many states, and the general overall climate of the nation, I present to you my best guess as to the ELEVEN states each candidate must win in order to win the election.

    This BIG ELEVEN is based on two different factors:

    1. The electoral votes envolved
    2. The significance of either candidate winning that state

    11. Michigan- With 17 electoral votes and the largest northern based black vote residing in Detroit, you can pretty much assume that Kerry can carry this state...Unless the black community continues its tradition of staying home. Advantage: Kerry

    10. Illinois- With 21 electoral votes and similar values as Michigan, Kerry can win this state for the same reasons as Michigan. With Alan Keyes being the last stand of the Republican party in Illinois?? Enough said! Advantage: Kerry

    9. New Jersey- With 15 electoral votes, New Jersey has a very complicated political situation going on. With the state still reeling from the "racial profiling" scandal, along with the resignation of its governor over "personal" matters, this state could be a wildcard. A Bush win in New Jersey will send a early message that the election could come down to the very last state. Advantage: Bush

    8. Pennsylvania- With 21 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is a truly neutral state. I don't see much activity there; I don't know why both candidate are ignoring this state. At this point, I could see Eddie Murphy using "The Disinguish Gentleman" approach in order to win that state. Advantage: Kerry

    7. Georgia- It has 15 electoral votes; so why is this state so important? Over the last four years, the south's most embittered political battles had taken placed there. If you can't win this southern state, what makes you think you can win any other southern state? Advantage- Bush

    6. Massachussetts- Keeping this simple...Kerry, if you can't win your own state.... Advantage- Kerry

    5. Texas- See number (6) GW!!!
    Advantage- Bush

    4. Ohio- 20 big votes in a state that'd suffered the worse case of umemployment in its states recent history. The issue is not how can Kerry win this state; the question is how could he possibly lose it? Advantage- Kerry

    3. Florida- 27 of the most crucial votes in this year's election. A state in need of everything and had also been "dissed" about the previous election. Tread softly is my advice for both candidates. Advantage- even

    2. New York- 31 huge votes that could go either way. Because of 9/11, you can see many turning to Bush. Because of its huge minority, anti-war and gay populations, you can see many turning to Kerry. Too close to call is an understatement here. Advantage- even

    NUMBER ONE- CALIFORNIA​

    It's 55 electoral votes makes this state's position absolutely clear; whoever wins this state is automatically 1/4th of the way to the White House. Everything that you believe in has to be proven in this state; if you win this state, you'll win the overall respect of this nation, regardless of win or loss. John F. Kennedy, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton understood this. Advantage-Kerry.

    You can cite many polls that says Bush leads "fifty something" to Kerry's "forty something"; just remember one thing; Al Gore won the the overall vote in 2000.

    It's not how many people vote for you, it's where they vote from that counts.


    "New York, Texas and California" -John F. Kennedy, when asked by a senior aide, on the eve of his election, as to what he was praying for while in confession.
     
  2. Avatar4321
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    Avatar4321 Diamond Member Gold Supporting Member

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    Dont take this the wrong way, but your analysis sucks.

    Your analysis here isnt bad. However, Kerry has one big problem. He doesnt have the support of the entire black vote. Traditionally Democrats have 80% or more of the Black vote. However, Kerry is about at 69% if i remember the last poll. This is not going to help Kerry. And he knows it. I think Bush can win both states. Regardless of Ambassador Keyes, who has turned into an incredible disappointment.

    Not bad with the analysis here either. However, you are also missing one major factor. Pharmacuetical companies. The Pharmacuetical industry in NJ is incredibly huge. Kerry is complaining about outsourcing while telling the American people he wants to outsource our drugs by getting them from Canada. Add to that his continual acusations that Bush supports the drug comapnies. He is basically telling all the Pharmacuetical companies that Bush is favoring them. That means more jobs for New Jersey. Funny thing is i dont even think he realizes this. I think if you add all the stuff you mentioned to that plus the proximity near where the towers fell and Kerry's lack of support among his Jewish base, I think Kerry is in serious trouble. If Kerry loses New Jersey its all over.

    Being from the burbs of west philly im going to be very blunt. I think Kerry needs an act of God to take this state. I have to drive several miles too and from school everyday. I see a few Kerry signs, but the Bush signs are all over the place. And not just small signs there are the frinking three foot wide Bush signs. all over. If Kerry doesnt get alot of support from the burbs he wont win the state even with high turn out in the city. The problem is as mentioned before, Kerry doesnt have the full support of the Black base. he wont be able to turn out the base to vote in the major cities he hasnt got a chance.

    Also you're wrong neither candidate is ignoring the area. I know President Bush was here last week...well the first President Bush. Bush has been in my area atleast twice in the last few months. Chenney has been in the area recently too. You also have to remember that if the President goes to Southern Jersey its like he is coming the Pennsylvania. We have the same local coverage so if the President Hits S. Jersey he gets the Philadelphia market as well. Much like if the President hits N. Jersey he gets the New York market.

    Im sorry but this is one of your dumb analysis ones. Kerry doesnt have much of a chance in Georgia. The only way he would is if they had major turn out in Atlanta but again remember the Black vote is not enthusiastic about him.

    Neither of these states is really up for grabs. if either candidate does lose his home state...well thats just sad. Even Carter and Mondale didnt lose their home states....oh wait Al Gore did.

    If you think Kerry has an advantage in Ohio i think you are seriously mistaken. I mean heck the Democrat Mayor of one of major cities of his constituents is endorsing President Bush. The only way Kerry does have a choice is if he gets alot of support from Mary Poppins and Dick Tracy.

    I dont see how Florida is any way even. Bush has nearly had a 10 pt lead there for months. You remember the first debate when Bush looked exhausted? thats because he spent the entire day helping out the Hurricane victims while Kerry was getting a manicure. President Bush has been down in Florida multiple times helping out the people there. I dont know of one instance where Kerry was helping out anyone.

    As for getting dissed. yeah they were dissed. By the Democrats trying to steal their electorial votes. the people there arent stupid. Seriously if you think Kerry has a chance in Florida just ask yourself one thing, why is he still trying to secure his base down there in Miami Dade if he has a chance?

    I agree. New York is going to be a surpriser on how close it will be. Especially since Kerry isnt getting out the black or jewish voters of his base. He still has time to rile them up but i dont see anything Kerry can really do in less than two weeks to get them exited.

    I dont think california is really going to matter. I think the election will be over before we get that far. but regardless, i think Arnold has put Cali in play. i also think that alot of the leftists who arent happy with Kerry will be thinking, "well i dont like Kerry but since Kerry is going to win regardless im going to vote third party" not to mention i think there will be the same turn out problems among Democrats in Cali as elsewhere...i think california may be in play but then i think Massechusetts might be in play however unlikely.

    I think you missed about five key states. Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconson, and New Hampshire. Three are blue states which Gore won, but Kerry is having problems in. the onther two are swing states, but i think they favor Bush.

    I really think we are about the see a landslide and its going to shock the hell out of people.
     
  3. hylandrdet
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    hylandrdet Member

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    I respect your opinion, despite a snipe here or there, because it contained some form of respect; but with the polls down to a 49% to 48 %, I wouldn't count your chickens before they hatch.
     

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