Hurrican Experts admit they can't predict hurricanes early

Discussion in 'Environment' started by tinydancer, Dec 13, 2011.

  1. tinydancer
    Offline

    tinydancer Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2010
    Messages:
    41,536
    Thanks Received:
    9,368
    Trophy Points:
    2,070
    Location:
    Sundown
    Ratings:
    +21,070
    YOWZAH. Finally we have some truth in the world of science. Good for them.

    OTTAWA — Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, famous across Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice of making a seasonal forecast in December because it doesn’t work.

    William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no predictive value.

    The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities of hurricane seasons in December. But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do in the long run.


    I love that part I highlighted. :D

    Hurricane experts admit they can
     
  2. konradv
    Online

    konradv Gold Member

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2010
    Messages:
    22,571
    Thanks Received:
    2,558
    Trophy Points:
    280
    Location:
    Baltimore
    Ratings:
    +5,674
    True, even 7 day forecasts stink.
     
  3. RetiredGySgt
    Offline

    RetiredGySgt Platinum Member

    Joined:
    May 6, 2007
    Messages:
    39,580
    Thanks Received:
    5,905
    Trophy Points:
    1,140
    Location:
    North Carolina
    Ratings:
    +9,000
    We only know how to OBSERVE events and then predict AFTER something has formed what will happen. That is why computer models that supposedly predict temperatures and weather conditions are absolutely useless.

    Science does not even know when a cloud will form. Our weather predictions are ALL based on observed data. We see the event and then predict where it will go and what it will do. We can not predict the event will form.
     
  4. Sherry
    Offline

    Sherry You're not the boss of me Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2009
    Messages:
    21,494
    Thanks Received:
    8,798
    Trophy Points:
    960
    Location:
    some beach
    Ratings:
    +11,085
    I took a meteorology course in college...it is far from an exact science.
     
  5. uscitizen
    Offline

    uscitizen Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 6, 2007
    Messages:
    45,941
    Thanks Received:
    4,791
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    My Shack
    Ratings:
    +4,807
    And it is far too early to give humans the technology that would permit accurate forecasts for hurricanes.
     
  6. Old Rocks
    Offline

    Old Rocks Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2008
    Messages:
    46,567
    Thanks Received:
    5,425
    Trophy Points:
    1,840
    Location:
    Portland, Ore.
    Ratings:
    +10,383
    We can't predict when they will form, or where. Last two years excellant example. Plenty of hurricanes offshore, thankfully, few came onshore.

    However, we can predict that certain patterns make them more likely. La Nina's seem to produce more than El Nino's. Very warm water conditions produce stronger storms than cooler conditions.

    Will we be able to predict occurances better in the future? Undoubtedly. A step at a time.
     
  7. westwall
    Online

    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2010
    Messages:
    41,018
    Thanks Received:
    7,987
    Trophy Points:
    1,830
    Location:
    Nevada
    Ratings:
    +19,786




    Whaa.... global average temp has no impact? Blasphemer!
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2011
  8. RetiredGySgt
    Offline

    RetiredGySgt Platinum Member

    Joined:
    May 6, 2007
    Messages:
    39,580
    Thanks Received:
    5,905
    Trophy Points:
    1,140
    Location:
    North Carolina
    Ratings:
    +9,000
    Which is why global computer models are NO GOOD. We know next to nothing about the weather systems, the cycles of the systems and what does and does not cause warming. EVERY thing we do is based on OBSERVING weather patterns, we can not predict when these will form, we can only observe what does form and then using the observation predict where it will go and what it will do.
     
  9. editec
    Offline

    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2008
    Messages:
    41,427
    Thanks Received:
    5,598
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Maine
    Ratings:
    +5,618
    Yup.

    The prediction game of a highly complex system where chaos reigns supreme is a fools errand.

    The weather is NOT a mechanistic system.
     
  10. wirebender
    Offline

    wirebender Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2011
    Messages:
    1,723
    Thanks Received:
    120
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    NC
    Ratings:
    +120
    How myopic are you rocks. Two years? The men who are doing the "science" (tongue in cheek) are saying that the past 20 years of predictions have been essentially worthless.
     

Share This Page