Hurrican Experts admit they can't predict hurricanes early

[tinydancer]

YOWZAH. Finally we have some truth in the world of science. Good for them.

OTTAWA — Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, famous across Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice of making a seasonal forecast in December because it doesn’t work.

William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no predictive value.

The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities of hurricane seasons in December. But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do in the long run.

I love that part I highlighted.

Hurricane experts admit they can

 

[konradv]

YOWZAH. Finally we have some truth in the world of science. Good for them.

OTTAWA — Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, famous across Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice of making a seasonal forecast in December because it doesn’t work.

William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no predictive value.

The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities of hurricane seasons in December. But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do in the long run.

I love that part I highlighted.

Hurricane experts admit they can

True, even 7 day forecasts stink.

 

[RetiredGySgt]

We only know how to OBSERVE events and then predict AFTER something has formed what will happen. That is why computer models that supposedly predict temperatures and weather conditions are absolutely useless.

Science does not even know when a cloud will form. Our weather predictions are ALL based on observed data. We see the event and then predict where it will go and what it will do. We can not predict the event will form.

 

[Sherry]

I took a meteorology course in college...it is far from an exact science.

 

[uscitizen]

And it is far too early to give humans the technology that would permit accurate forecasts for hurricanes.

 

[Old Rocks]

We can't predict when they will form, or where. Last two years excellant example. Plenty of hurricanes offshore, thankfully, few came onshore.

However, we can predict that certain patterns make them more likely. La Nina's seem to produce more than El Nino's. Very warm water conditions produce stronger storms than cooler conditions.

Will we be able to predict occurances better in the future? Undoubtedly. A step at a time.

 

[westwall]

We can't predict when they will form, or where. Last two years excellant example. Plenty of hurricanes offshore, thankfully, few came onshore.

However, we can predict that certain patterns make them more likely. La Nina's seem to produce more than El Nino's. Very warm water conditions produce stronger storms than cooler conditions.

Will we be able to predict occurances better in the future? Undoubtedly. A step at a time.

Whaa.... global average temp has no impact? Blasphemer!

 

[RetiredGySgt]

We can't predict when they will form, or where. Last two years excellant example. Plenty of hurricanes offshore, thankfully, few came onshore.

However, we can predict that certain patterns make them more likely. La Nina's seem to produce more than El Nino's. Very warm water conditions produce stronger storms than cooler conditions.

Will we be able to predict occurances better in the future? Undoubtedly. A step at a time.

Which is why global computer models are NO GOOD. We know next to nothing about the weather systems, the cycles of the systems and what does and does not cause warming. EVERY thing we do is based on OBSERVING weather patterns, we can not predict when these will form, we can only observe what does form and then using the observation predict where it will go and what it will do.

 

[editec]

Yup.

The prediction game of a highly complex system where chaos reigns supreme is a fools errand.

The weather is NOT a mechanistic system.

 

[wirebender]

We can't predict when they will form, or where. Last two years excellant example. Plenty of hurricanes offshore, thankfully, few came onshore.

However, we can predict that certain patterns make them more likely. La Nina's seem to produce more than El Nino's. Very warm water conditions produce stronger storms than cooler conditions.

Will we be able to predict occurances better in the future? Undoubtedly. A step at a time.

How myopic are you rocks. Two years? The men who are doing the "science" (tongue in cheek) are saying that the past 20 years of predictions have been essentially worthless.

 

[Ravi]

Isn't Gray considered a crackpot? Either way, he's just not going to issue the forecast in December....he'll issue it closer to the season.

I hope the dart throwing monkey doesn't quit.