Huckabee is for real

Discussion in 'Politics' started by ScreamingEagle, Nov 29, 2007.

  1. ScreamingEagle
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    ScreamingEagle Gold Member

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    John McIntyre
    Thu Nov 29

    It is not about Iowa only any more. Mike Huckabee has a real shot to be the Republican nominee.

    A month ago after the Values Voters conference I opined:

    I don't know that Mike Huckabee will win the GOP Iowa Caucus, but right now he looks like a solid choice to finish second, and at 5-1 I like his odds to win Iowa outright.

    The chart below shows Huckabee's impressive move up to 3rd in the latest RCP Average in Iowa. Coupled with his overwhelming win in the Values Voters (onsite) straw poll this weekend, the potential emergence of Mike Huckabee into the first tier is a significant development in the GOP race.

    Well that potentiality has materialized. And at roughly 10-1 to win the Republican nomination (he is trading in 3rd place at 11.7 at Intrade) I like his odds to be the GOP nominee.

    The GOP race is usually characterized as either a two-person contest (Giuliani vs. Romney) or a wide open field among the five viable candidates (Giuliani, Romney, Thompson, Huckabee and McCain). However, what we are fast approaching is a three-man race between Huckabee, Romney and Giuliani.

    In general this is very bad news for Mitt Romney. A strongly viable Huckabee will steal voters Romney has to have to be able to beat Giuliani as the primary calendar moves into the post-New Hampshire contests. Ironically it may be Romney's money, campaign infrastructure, coupled with his strength in New Hampshire that keeps his campaign alive long enough to prevent the anti-Giuliani forces in the GOP from rallying around Huckabee. Back in July I speculated that this type of three way dynamic splitting the anti-Rudy vote was one of Giuliani's path's to the nomination.

    Just like Giuliani was the key to McCain's demise, Thompson may be what sinks the Romney campaign. This would effectively leave a two-person race between the New Yorker and the Tennessean, with Romney perhaps siphoning just enough conservative votes that allows the pro-choice, thrice married Rudy Giuliani the pathway to the GOP nomination.

    What we have developing is Huckabee stepping in and filling the void in the GOP field that was available to Thompson in the summer - a void that his inept campaign has been unable to fill. So perhaps instead of the Tennessean sinking the Romney campaign it could very well be the Arkansan.

    For the Romney campaign the silver lining in Huckabee's move into the first tier -- and it is not an unimportant silver lining -- is that Huckabee has totally shaken up the expectations for Iowa on the GOP side. Because of this resetting of expectations in December, if Romney is able to hold off Huckabee in Iowa it will be a huge win for his campaign. A win that would allow the Romney campaign to get the kind of momentum they were looking for when they originally laid out their sling-shot strategy to the nomination. (Win Iowa, win New Hampshire, win Michigan, make it a two-person race against Giuliani, combine the early wins with Romney's personal wealth to overwhelm Rudy).

    However, what has to make the Romney campaign very nervous is this chart in Iowa.

    Intrade now has Huckabee at 55.1 and Romney at 38.0. Those markets are correctly pricing the race. Romney is now the underdog in Iowa.

    An important signal to watch for over the next month will be whether Huckabee overtakes Romney in the national polls leading up to Iowa. If that were to happen concurrently with Huckabee continuing to head toward a win in Iowa that would be an important tell that Republican voters are moving toward ultimately a Huckabee vs. Giuliani showdown.

    Giuliani remains the favorite, but at 10-1 odds that would be a showdown that Mike Huckabee might just be able to win.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20071129/cm_rcp/huckabee_is_for_real
     
  2. midcan5
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    midcan5 liberal / progressive

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    As wacky as I see Huckabee at least he is honest - I love his policy of arming everyone so when the black helicopters come all you conservatives will be ready. :rofl:
     
  3. Meemer
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    Meemer Member

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    Oh, just wait a while.
    Some will catch on to his gubernatorial history of strange economics.
    He sure does know how to play the game. "Christian leader." Will they fall for that one one more time?
     
  4. jillian
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    jillian Princess Supporting Member

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    I'm just wondering if anyone else sees something wrong with the concept of an evangelical preacher being president.
     
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  5. BaronVonBigmeat
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    BaronVonBigmeat Senior Member

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    He's for real, all right--a real, bonafide, right-wing socialist.

    http://www.taxhikemike.org/
     
  6. Stephanie
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    Stephanie Diamond Member Supporting Member

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    Wrong...he's a bonafide left wing socialist...

    No Huckabee for me...the man is a fraud...

    Please look at his record...Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter mixed with an R next to his name...
     
  7. Shogun
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    Shogun Free: Mudholes Stomped

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    i tellya.. the gravitational forces just PUUUUULLS some of you people away from middle ground, doesn't it?
     
  8. Larkinn
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    Larkinn Senior Member

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    Some of you need to figure out that someone who is mostly a right with conservative, with a few non right-wing conservative values thrown in, does NOT make someone either left wing or a socialist.

    Both of those claims are absurd.
     
  9. ScreamingEagle
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    ScreamingEagle Gold Member

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    Really? Exactly what's wrong with that "concept"?

    I knew this objection from the so-called "secularist" lefties would rear its ugly head eventually...once they can the religious symbols, it's only a matter of time before they can religious people from "secular" government positions whether it be in office or the courts or government jobs or wherever else…they are goose-stepping (whether these "intellectuals" realize it or not) toward religious oppression as well as oppression of free speech.
     
  10. mattskramer
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    mattskramer Senior Member

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    Let the people decide. It is a presidential election, after all. Conservatives are allowed to vote too. If the general public wants a “devoutly religious” person as president, so be it. If the voting public does not want a “devoutly religious” person as president, so be it.
     
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