CDZ How will GDP Growth Distribution Affect the Mid-Terms?

[william the wie]

There are at least four different basic ways to go in determining where the most jobs will be created:

Availability of skilled workers v. availability of training.

Taxes v. services.

Aesthetics/entertainment v. wages/benefits (working in AK or ND oil fields pays so well because there isn't much to do.)

Cost of building plants vs. operating expenses.

So, what is the pitch you believe in?

 

[Picaro]

There are at least four different basic ways to go in determining where the most jobs will be created:

Availability of skilled workers v. availability of training.

Taxes v. services.

Aesthetics/entertainment v. wages/benefits (working in AK or ND oil fields pays so well because there isn't much to do.)

Cost of building plants vs. operating expenses.

So, what is the pitch you believe in?

If I only have the choices listed, I pick the first and the last. I'm still waiting for any real evidence nominal tax rates have anything to do with whether or not somebody decides to start a business, and there is no evidence the tax decreases since the 1970's did anything either, except make speculators richer, and that includes myself.

The first only works up to a point; when the availability increases past a certain point, it's no longer economically rewarding to train for certain jobs, especially those that take years to acquire the skill sets needed. the last choice of course relates directly to profits and returns on capital, and when it's high enough, nobody gives a rat's ass about tax rates, since nobody in the U.S. ever pays the nominal rates anyway; too many deferment and avoidance schemes out there, even for lottery winners.

 

[william the wie]

There are at least four different basic ways to go in determining where the most jobs will be created:

Availability of skilled workers v. availability of training.

Taxes v. services.

Aesthetics/entertainment v. wages/benefits (working in AK or ND oil fields pays so well because there isn't much to do.)

Cost of building plants vs. operating expenses.

So, what is the pitch you believe in?

If I only have the choices listed, I pick the first and the last. I'm still waiting for any real evidence nominal tax rates have anything to do with whether or not somebody decides to start a business, and there is no evidence the tax decreases since the 1970's did anything either, except make speculators richer, and that includes myself.

The first only works up to a point; when the availability increases past a certain point, it's no longer economically rewarding to train for certain jobs, especially those that take years to acquire the skill sets needed. the last choice of course relates directly to profits and returns on capital, and when it's high enough, nobody gives a rat's ass about tax rates, since nobody in the U.S. ever pays the nominal rates anyway; too many deferment and avoidance schemes out there, even for lottery winners.

Normally true with US tax cuts/Stimulus bills but this time the Westpac/Irish technique so this go round will surprise both on the upside and downside. The governors of NY and CA already have lawsuits up and running against this bill as opposed to not having them the last four times there were major tax cuts. FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) is the centerpiece of this stimulus. The traditional "Unleash job creation" crap has been countered with deduction caps which effectively punish high tax states. This ain't daddy's or Grandpa's tax cut as in the housing bubbles that have been nearly continuous since 1948 don't have mortgage tax deduction room to take off.

Likewise the usual suspects have changed. PA is becoming a tax haven for most of its neighboring states. That is simply because with the exception of WV PA looks really, really good to people who need lower SALT.

 

[Picaro]

The problem with the Irish 'havens' is that the domestic Irish economy received no benefits, and in fact their domestic economy was running at a growing deficit, something they were going to correct very soon. Apple and the rest aren't moving back because of tax cuts here, that's just propaganda; they're moving back because Europeans aren't staying stupid and will soon have to adjust the rates so that these companies at least pay for their own costs at break even rates. All these races to the bottom are self-delusional idiocy.

Yes, American states still think playing the same sort of games 'to attract jobs' are great, that's because they're morons and their voters are stupid and can't do basic arithmetic any more. Attracting these big companies with huge freebies and tax breaks only causes taxes to go up on most of the rest of the companies and workers' payroll taxes. They are a net loss for most states. They would be better off 'losing' the bidding wars to other states in the long run.

Example: Here in Texas the state gave away some $5 million to Cabella's to open a store or two, and the locals threw in free land and took it off the tax rolls to attract them, babbling about ' all the new jobs n Stuff', never mind it was just a handful of part time retail clerks who still needed food stamps to stay alive on with those 'great new jobs', and the sales taxes never matched the losses in other taxes, and neither was the state gong to see a return of its $5 mil, at least not for 50 years or more.

Do a few more of those 'great deals' and it's not rocket science to see bankruptcy and high taxes coming down the tracks, at 200 mph.

 

[SeaGal]

Th

Example: Here in Texas the state gave away some $5 million to Cabella's to open a store or two, and the locals threw in free land and took it off the tax rolls to attract them, babbling about ' all the new jobs n Stuff', never mind it was just a handful of part time retail clerks who still needed food stamps to stay alive on with those 'great new jobs', and the sales taxes never matched the losses in other taxes, and neither was the state gong to see a return of its $5 mil, at least not for 50 years or more.

Do a few more of those 'great deals' and it's not rocket science to see bankruptcy and high taxes coming down the tracks, at 200 mph.

The state of Texas actually handed Cabella's $5 million in cash from state coffers?...or did they get a $5 million exemption on future taxes? What amount of tax revenue did that land bring in before the Cabella's was built?

Giving a break on future taxes ≠ writing a check from state revenues. For example, in Florida, we have $50,000 homestead exemption on property taxes. That exemption is my money saved, not state money spent.

Social programs accounting for greater than 60% of the federal budget along with trillions in unfunded liabilities - are fueling the engine of the runaway debt train.

 

[william the wie]

Only three states:: IL, CA & NJ; are beyond the point of no return. MA and NY are borderline. If the wage push inflation and labor shortages increase at the current rate, federal tax revenues should start increasing again later this summer.

 

[usmbguest5318]

There are at least four different basic ways to go in determining where the most jobs will be created:

Availability of skilled workers v. availability of training.

Taxes v. services.

Aesthetics/entertainment v. wages/benefits (working in AK or ND oil fields pays so well because there isn't much to do.)

Cost of building plants vs. operating expenses.

So, what is the pitch you believe in?

I'm not a sort to be led into selecting one or the other option offered in false dichotomies; thus I'm of a mind that all eight dimensions will factor into the election outcome.

 

[Picaro]

Th

Example: Here in Texas the state gave away some $5 million to Cabella's to open a store or two, and the locals threw in free land and took it off the tax rolls to attract them, babbling about ' all the new jobs n Stuff', never mind it was just a handful of part time retail clerks who still needed food stamps to stay alive on with those 'great new jobs', and the sales taxes never matched the losses in other taxes, and neither was the state gong to see a return of its $5 mil, at least not for 50 years or more.

Do a few more of those 'great deals' and it's not rocket science to see bankruptcy and high taxes coming down the tracks, at 200 mph.

The state of Texas actually handed Cabella's $5 million in cash from state coffers?...or did they get a $5 million exemption on future taxes? What amount of tax revenue did that land bring in before the Cabella's was built?

Giving a break on future taxes ≠ writing a check from state revenues. For example, in Florida, we have $50,000 homestead exemption on property taxes. That exemption is my money saved, not state money spent.

Social programs accounting for greater than 60% of the federal budget along with trillions in unfunded liabilities - are fueling the engine of the runaway debt train.

All states hand out corporate welfare; you can change the names around to fool the stupid, but it's still subsidies. Most do so via schemes that cover shortfalls created by local govts., a 'one off' type of scheme. If you Google Scholar Cabella's these types of schemes are part of their business plan.

Texas Enterprise Fund - Wikipedia

2014 is the latest date I can find info on. A sampling of deals here:

Where $507 Million in Texas Enterprise Fund Awards Went | The Texas Tribune

there is this crappy website that doesn't give out much info, for some reason:

Texas Business Incentives - Search Results

More links:

Texas Enterprise Fund

Recent Politics around the Fund:

Amid clash over procedure, Texas House moves to defund Enterprise Fund

https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/...eal-closer-incentives-program-would-lose.html

Tea Party gets out-maneuvered by procedural experts.

This is why you can't just vote in any idiot into office, just because they sound good to you; if they don't have any knowledge, they will be completely ineffective and worse than useless. The era of 'the amateur citizen legislator' ended a couple hundred years ago, so get over it.

 

[DarkFury]

The first blast of cash will be in trade schools. You can't rebuild without trained workers.

 

[Picaro]

The first blast of cash will be in trade schools. You can't rebuild without trained workers.

This is looking like the case, finally, some 50 years after the more productive spending needs became obvious. But even a lot of that will be wasted on lying to people to get them in programs that wont pay squat as well; corps have lied about imaginary 'shortages' for decades now, and won't be changing their stories any time soon.

 

[william the wie]

The first blast of cash will be in trade schools. You can't rebuild without trained workers.

This is looking like the case, finally, some 50 years after the more productive spending needs became obvious. But even a lot of that will be wasted on lying to people to get them in programs that wont pay squat as well; corps have lied about imaginary 'shortages' for decades now, and won't be changing their stories any time soon.

the pull is old school what is different this time is the push. High tax/high cost of living states are looking at quickly shrinking tax bases. So tax increases and/or service cuts are being implemented. In order to finance out a wave of "burn baby burn" is needed. Downsizing like this is dangerous.