How To Win a Football Game

[BluePhantom]

For those that really know and understand the NFL game what I am about to say will really come as no surprise, but to see the actual numbers is quite revealing. Quarterbacks get the credit and everyone loves to see the passing game, but wins are created on the ground. It's all about the run!

Consider the following for games this year alone and compare the Win/Loss records for teams who gain 300 yards passing vs. teams who run the ball 30 or more times. Teams who recorded 300 passing yards or more have a combined record of 8-9 while teams who ran the ball 30 times or more have a combined record of 17-3.

Now you can't just run the ball 30 straight times, gaining one yard per carry, and expect to win simply because you did so. Running the ball 30 times means you are running successfully, moving the chains, controlling the clock, and keep the opposing offense off the field. In that regard the best defense is an exceptional running game.

Short, sweet, and to the point. Consider the following results for this season:


Week One
300 Yards Passing (4-4)
Tony Romo: Win
Andrew Luck: Loss
Matt Stafford: Win
Robert Griffin III: Win
Drew Brees: Loss
Michael Vick: Win
Aaron Rodgers: Loss
Cam Newton: Loss


30+ Carry Teams (8-3)
Chicago: Win
Jacksonville: Loss
NY Jets: Win
Houston: Win
New England: Win
Washington: Win
Philadelphia: Win
Kansas City: Loss
San Francisco: Win
Seattle: Loss
Tampa Bay: Win

Week Two
300 Yards Passing (4-5)
Matt Cassel: Loss
Drew Brees: Loss
Brandon Weeden: Loss
Andy Dalton: Win
Carson Palmer: Loss
Tom Brady: Loss
Eli Manning: Win
Michael Vick: Win
Sam Bradford: Win


30+ Carry Teams (9-0)
Buffalo: Win
Carolina: Win
Indianapolis: Win
Houston: Win
Miami: Win
Arizona: Win
Philadelphia: Win
Seattle: Win
San Diego: Win

Consider also that in three of those games where a team won with a 300 yard passing game they also had 30+ carries on the ground. Consider as well that of the three losses this year where a team ran the ball 30 times and lost, two of them (Seattle / Arizona and Jacksonville / Minnesota) were extremely close games that came right down to the wire and were decided by 4 points or less.

 

[BluePhantom]

For Week Three

300 Yard Passers (4-5)
Locker (Ten): Win
Detroit (combined Hill/Stafford): Loss
Dalton (Cin): Win
Sanchez (NYJ): Win
Luck (Ind): Loss
Manning (Den): Loss
Roethlisberger (Pit): Loss
Brady (NE): Loss
Flacco (Bal): Win


30+ Carry Teams (8-4)
Chicago: Win
Minnesota: Win
Detroit: Loss
Washington: Loss
Kansas City: Win
New York Jets: Win
Miami: Loss
Buffalo: Win
Jacksonville: Win
Arizona: Win
Houston: Win
New England: Loss

Season
300 Yard Passers: 12-14
30+ Carry Teams: 25-7

 

[chikenwing]

Its always been controlling the line of scrimmage always.

Just ask the Bills,or Denver,well Denver learned.

 

[Rocko]

Its always been controlling the line of scrimmage always.

Just ask the Bills,or Denver,well Denver learned.

The bills have been dominating in the trenches.

 

[chikenwing]

Its always been controlling the line of scrimmage always.

Just ask the Bills,or Denver,well Denver learned.

The bills have been dominating in the trenches.

Well sorta,bet they do the same as last year,good start then well nots so good.

What I was really referring to was the run and gun offense they had in days long past,the kelly years,did great against similar offenses,lots of points,but when they met up with a true line control team not so good,they came close with the Giants,in that SB but not so good against the skins and the dull ass plow boys those were some real beat downs.

Denver met the same fate. But that was long ago things have changed.

 

[HereWeGoAgain]

The Texans do it better then anyone. We lead the league in time of possession and have the biggest point differential in the first half in the NFL.
Then it's run and control the clock.
The combo of Kubiak and Wade is a lesson in how to play football.

 

[Mad Scientist]

I was under the impression that you had to score more points to win. Did the NFL change the rules this year?

 

[Papageorgio]

I was under the impression that you had to score more points to win. Did the NFL change the rules this year?

Apparently so.

 

[BluePhantom]

I was under the impression that you had to score more points to win. Did the NFL change the rules this year?

There's one in every bunch, huh? The point is that you can't score points unless your offense is on the field (barring a score on a turnover which is rare). When the other team is running well they keep your offense on the sidelines and not driving toward the end zone. It also keeps their defense rested so when you do get the ball you are facing a defense that is fresh and energetic.

The numbers speak for them themselves dude.

 

[percysunshine]

Run when they think you are going to pass, and pass when they think you are going to run.

Works every time.

 

[barry1960]

I was under the impression that you had to score more points to win. Did the NFL change the rules this year?

There's one in every bunch, huh? The point is that you can't score points unless your offense is on the field (barring a score on a turnover which is rare). When the other team is running well they keep your offense on the sidelines and not driving toward the end zone. It also keeps their defense rested so when you do get the ball you are facing a defense that is fresh and energetic.

The numbers speak for them themselves dude.

The numbers do speak, but one has to know what they are saying, or possibly not saying.

It is true that establishing the run opens up the pass. If you cannot run, then the defense can play pass, put seven defensive backs on the field, have the defensive line pin their ear back and bore all out of the quarterback and make it that much more difficult to throw.

The opposite is also true. If you cannot pass, the defense will stack the line and put nine men in the box. You will then have a difficult time runniung the ball. Therefore, it can also be said that establish the pass to set up the run. You might be able to control the line so much that you can run over another team, but that would be much more likely in high school or college. In the pros you usually have to keep them guessing.

As far as 300 yard passing games goes: the question is did the team lose because it amassed 300 yards passing or did it amass 300 yards passing because it was playing catchup? Could be the a case of the tail wagging the dog.

Convensional wisdom says time of possession is important. It seems to me that stat is overated. It is what you do with each possession that matters.

 

[Mad Scientist]

I was under the impression that you had to score more points to win. Did the NFL change the rules this year?

There's one in every bunch, huh? The point is that you can't score points unless your offense is on the field (barring a score on a turnover which is rare). When the other team is running well they keep your offense on the sidelines and not driving toward the end zone. It also keeps their defense rested so when you do get the ball you are facing a defense that is fresh and energetic.

The numbers speak for them themselves dude.

The NFL continually adjusts the rules to increase scoring and keep the game within a 3 hour TV time frame.

Professional Football is less of a Sport and more of a Product. Jack Kent Cooke said so in the 80's: "We're selling product".

The owner of the San Diego Chargers was being interviewed on a radio show a while back and the interviewer asked about the team finances. Alex Spanos replied: "We've made money every year except one, the year we went to the Super Bowl".

I'm willing to bet, that there is more than one NFL owner that only cares about turning a profit and getting a new stadium. Wins and losses are down on the list. All those poor fans prolly have no idea!

The sad part is there appears to be millions of people who spend most of their lives memorizing the minutiae of the different leagues when it matters no more than any other TV Show. And that's what the NFL is: A TV Show. A managed, 9 Billion dollar a year, NFL Reality Show.

You think there's no Don King types in the NFL? I guarantee you there are.

 

[BluePhantom]

I was under the impression that you had to score more points to win. Did the NFL change the rules this year?

There's one in every bunch, huh? The point is that you can't score points unless your offense is on the field (barring a score on a turnover which is rare). When the other team is running well they keep your offense on the sidelines and not driving toward the end zone. It also keeps their defense rested so when you do get the ball you are facing a defense that is fresh and energetic.

The numbers speak for them themselves dude.

The numbers do speak, but one has to know what they are saying, or possibly not saying.

It is true that establishing the run opens up the pass. If you cannot run, then the defense can play pass, put seven defensive backs on the field, have the defensive line pin their ear back and bore all out of the quarterback and make it that much more difficult to throw.

The opposite is also true. If you cannot pass, the defense will stack the line and put nine men in the box. You will then have a difficult time runniung the ball. Therefore, it can also be said that establish the pass to set up the run. You might be able to control the line so much that you can run over another team, but that would be much more likely in high school or college. In the pros you usually have to keep them guessing.

As far as 300 yard passing games goes: the question is did the team lose because it amassed 300 yards passing or did it amass 300 yards passing because it was playing catchup? Could be the a case of the tail wagging the dog.

Convensional wisdom says time of possession is important. It seems to me that stat is overated. It is what you do with each possession that matters.

It's a valid point and I think that's kind of what I was getting at. Usually (not always) the only reason why a quarterback is passing for 300 yards is because they are desperately trying to move the ball and catch up...and usually they get a lot of yards but fail to score.

Dont get me wrong. The pass is important. My personal preference is 60/40 rush to pass so it's not like I am suggesting that a team never throws the ball ever. My point is that the average fan gets so worked up about the pass. They say "this is a great quarterback because he throws for 300 yards a game so often". That has nothing to do with the quality of the quarterback, it has everything to do with being on a shitty team that has put the offensive coordinator in a position where they have to abandon the run. I will post this claim before I look at the stats and check it out. My guess is that out of the quarterbacks in the NFL who are top five in passing yardage this year, three of them are on teams with a losing record and my guess is that those teams are weak against the run.

I will check tomorrow to see if my claim is accurate

 

[BluePhantom]

I was under the impression that you had to score more points to win. Did the NFL change the rules this year?

There's one in every bunch, huh? The point is that you can't score points unless your offense is on the field (barring a score on a turnover which is rare). When the other team is running well they keep your offense on the sidelines and not driving toward the end zone. It also keeps their defense rested so when you do get the ball you are facing a defense that is fresh and energetic.

The numbers speak for them themselves dude.

The NFL continually adjusts the rules to increase scoring and keep the game within a 3 hour TV time frame.

Professional Football is less of a Sport and more of a Product. Jack Kent Cooke said so in the 80's: "We're selling product".

The owner of the San Diego Chargers was being interviewed on a radio show a while back and the interviewer asked about the team finances. Alex Spanos replied: "We've made money every year except one, the year we went to the Super Bowl".

I'm willing to bet, that there is more than one NFL owner that only cares about turning a profit and getting a new stadium. Wins and losses are down on the list. All those poor fans prolly have no idea!

The sad part is there appears to be millions of people who spend most of their lives memorizing the minutiae of the different leagues when it matters no more than any other TV Show. And that's what the NFL is: A TV Show. A managed, 9 Billion dollar a year, NFL Reality Show.

You think there's no Don King types in the NFL? I guarantee you there are.

Well i could write a long response to your post but I think I can sum it up in three words......yeah no shit.

 

[auditor0007]

The Texans do it better then anyone. We lead the league in time of possession and have the biggest point differential in the first half in the NFL.
Then it's run and control the clock.
The combo of Kubiak and Wade is a lesson in how to play football.

Kubiak was bound to make Houston a top tier team; it was just a matter of time to put all the pieces in place. He was the genius behind the Broncos Super Bowl championship teams, but Shanahan got the credit.

 

[HereWeGoAgain]

The Texans do it better then anyone. We lead the league in time of possession and have the biggest point differential in the first half in the NFL.
Then it's run and control the clock.
The combo of Kubiak and Wade is a lesson in how to play football.

Kubiak was bound to make Houston a top tier team; it was just a matter of time to put all the pieces in place. He was the genius behind the Broncos Super Bowl championship teams, but Shanahan got the credit.

Thats the way I see it. Houston is Denver South..LOL
Neither Wade nor Kubs are cut out for head coaching jobs.
You put the two of them together....? SWEET!!
Dont see a real test for the Texans till the Ravens game.