If the economy / unemployment situation continutes to improve Obama will say "Well it took a little longer than expected because the guys who got us into the mess screwed things up more than we originally knew. But my great policies and wonderfulness in every way, have done it and if you allow me to continue the repair, I'll restore the Middle Class and all will be peachy! Oh and MISSION ACCOMPLISHED! Finally!" And he'll win. If the economy / unemployment situation does not improve, Romney will say "See! The Democrat policies are to blame for all your problems and what will solve everything is lower taxes, reducing this ginormous government Obama created and making America more business-friendly again! Oh, and I'll repeal ObamaCare because seriously, who actually likes that pos?!?!?!" And he'll win. Yes, the Super-Pacs are a factor and so on but the easiest way to predict the POTUS election is with the wallet of the Middle class. The state races will be another matter. Corporations will definitely be able to buy a lot more of those elections than normal, since the passing of Citizens United. Sad that.