How soon to the next big correction/crash?

by when will the market crash

  • Dec

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • March

    Votes: 1 14.3%
  • June

    Votes: 2 28.6%
  • Sept

    Votes: 4 57.1%

  • Total voters
    7
It's not audited.
The ONLY audit trail is the piece of paper itself.
Okay, prove it. You say this, but given how naive you were when thinking BLS data on part time workers came from CEP instead of CPS Household Survey I'm more than a bit skeptical that you have any knowledge of how BLS manages their analytics.

Hint = "because I say so" over and over is not concrete evidence that supports your claim.

Speaking of which, I presume you believe that all the sub-prime mortgages were electronically approved and audited.
Yet another attempt to distract by assigning an opinion to me, will be ignored like all the rest.

This straw man thing seems almost kneejerk for eh? Caught in a poor place, just start forming opinions others have to attack! Charge! Can't think of a strawman to build? Let's start talking about how glorious our career was and how smart our friends were! Weee!

So how exactly do you know BLS doesn't perform audits on their data?
 
I like to keep things simple. When the fed stops pumping them up, they will fall and fall hard.

Well it should be coming soon, because they stopped QE and have had a rate increase. It is starting to smell like a top. Look what the 10 year Tbill has done in the last 6 months.
 
It's not audited.
The ONLY audit trail is the piece of paper itself.
Okay, prove it. You say this, but given how naive you were when thinking BLS data on part time workers came from CEP instead of CPS Household Survey I'm more than a bit skeptical that you have any knowledge of how BLS manages their analytics.

Hint = "because I say so" over and over is not concrete evidence that supports your claim.

Speaking of which, I presume you believe that all the sub-prime mortgages were electronically approved and audited.
Yet another attempt to distract by assigning an opinion to me, will be ignored like all the rest.

This straw man thing seems almost kneejerk for eh? Caught in a poor place, just start forming opinions others have to attack! Charge!
It DOESN'T matter where the data came from...it's NOT audited.
How would you react if you found out your broker was not auditing your investments?
You'd be upset...as an INDIVIDUAL.
Imagine unaudited data being used to determine policy for a NATION.
 
Trying to determine how far out to buy puts.

The percentage of bulls in the Daily Sentiment index (trade-futures.com) peaked back in May at over 90%. In July it went to 89% and last tuesday (of this week) it hit 88%. Investor sentiment is so bullish that the market is rising even on bad news.

Personally, I'd buy cheap, deep out of the money S&P500 puts with a long expiration- out to June or Sept 14.

Happy trading!

Thank you kindly sir. I am also selling SPLV (S&P low velocity fraction) puts while buying mini-S&P puts, LQD puts and VNQ puts. And good trading to you as wel.

You're making liberal minds catch on fire.....
 
Trying to determine how far out to buy puts.

The percentage of bulls in the Daily Sentiment index (trade-futures.com) peaked back in May at over 90%. In July it went to 89% and last tuesday (of this week) it hit 88%. Investor sentiment is so bullish that the market is rising even on bad news.

Personally, I'd buy cheap, deep out of the money S&P500 puts with a long expiration- out to June or Sept 14.

Happy trading!

Thank you kindly sir. I am also selling SPLV (S&P low velocity fraction) puts while buying mini-S&P puts, LQD puts and VNQ puts. And good trading to you as wel.

You're making liberal minds catch on fire.....
They're already burnt.
 
It DOESN'T matter where the data came from...it's NOT audited.
Yes, you've said this over and over. But after about a dozen requests for you to provide evidence of it you've come up with nothing more than the "because I said so" argument.

We both know you are completely clueless about how BLS manages their data, yet you are quite comfortable leaning on conjecture to support your argument. I would expect more from someone with so many PhD friends.
 
It DOESN'T matter where the data came from...it's NOT audited.
Yes, you've said this over and over. But after about a dozen requests for you to provide evidence of it you've come up with nothing more than the "because I said so" argument.

We both know you are completely clueless about how BLS manages their data, yet you are quite comfortable leaning on conjecture to support your argument. I would expect more from someone with so many PhD friends.
Show me proof of millions of approved sub-prime mortgages.
Pieces of paper run through paper shredders.

You inability to connect dots is boring me to tears...go read The Wall Street Journal with Ted Cruz and his wife at Goldman-Sachs.
I'll hang out with the people who voted for Trump.
 
Trying to determine how far out to buy puts.

The percentage of bulls in the Daily Sentiment index (trade-futures.com) peaked back in May at over 90%. In July it went to 89% and last tuesday (of this week) it hit 88%. Investor sentiment is so bullish that the market is rising even on bad news.

Personally, I'd buy cheap, deep out of the money S&P500 puts with a long expiration- out to June or Sept 14.

Happy trading!

Thank you kindly sir. I am also selling SPLV (S&P low velocity fraction) puts while buying mini-S&P puts, LQD puts and VNQ puts. And good trading to you as wel.

You're making liberal minds catch on fire.....
They're already burnt.

Since the second Bush was elected I've made it a policy not sell when a dem is in office.
It's served me well as an amateur trader.
 
We know it is because the result of the input almost always results in upping the Business Visa limit and severely underreporting the number of those earning minimum wage and/or being purposely employed less than 35 hours a week to avoid providing health benefits.
I presume you don't leave your house too often or when you do you're hobnobbing at the golf club because you seem to be severing lacking in seeing what's right in front of your face when you go shopping.
Of course, you MAY be shopping on Miracle Mile.

You swing a deft scalpel, friend, a quick sharp scalpel.
I deal with tons of people; I am fascinated with people.
Some people can't tolerate my honesty; I can't tolerate their inability to deal with my honesty.
But there are LOTS of good people out there...some wealthy, some poor.
It's the person that counts, NOT the assets.
We know it is because the result of the input almost always results in upping the Business Visa limit and severely underreporting the number of those earning minimum wage and/or being purposely employed less than 35 hours a week to avoid providing health benefits.
I presume you don't leave your house too often or when you do you're hobnobbing at the golf club because you seem to be severing lacking in seeing what's right in front of your face when you go shopping.
Of course, you MAY be shopping on Miracle Mile.

You swing a deft scalpel, friend, a quick sharp scalpel.
I deal with tons of people; I am fascinated with people.
Some people can't tolerate my honesty; I can't tolerate their inability to deal with my honesty.
But there are LOTS of good people out there...some wealthy, some poor.
It's the person that counts, NOT the assets.

Except for members of the opposite sex.
 
Show me proof of millions of approved sub-prime mortgages.
Pieces of paper run through paper shredders.
Yet another attempt at distraction by a man looking utterly foolish. Focus, my question was related to your (since denied) claim that BLS has phony data, not mortgages.

You inability to connect dots is boring me to tears...go read The Wall Street Journal with Ted Cruz and his wife at Goldman-Sachs.
I'll hang out with the people who voted for Trump.
Your political leanings is about as interesting as your fascinating narratives about how many of your friends have advanced education, but back to the point I think we've clearly established that you cannot support you claim that BLS has phony data. Your feeble attempts to back up your argument have been nothing more than demonstrations of being naive and pathetic references to the wonderful education levels achieved by your peers.

Obviously you have no idea if BLS data is phony, and no evidence it isn't audited. Keep on trucking, and hey... tell me more about how you run in educated circles that shit convinces me every time!
 
Trying to determine how far out to buy puts.

The percentage of bulls in the Daily Sentiment index (trade-futures.com) peaked back in May at over 90%. In July it went to 89% and last tuesday (of this week) it hit 88%. Investor sentiment is so bullish that the market is rising even on bad news.

Personally, I'd buy cheap, deep out of the money S&P500 puts with a long expiration- out to June or Sept 14.

Happy trading!

Thank you kindly sir. I am also selling SPLV (S&P low velocity fraction) puts while buying mini-S&P puts, LQD puts and VNQ puts. And good trading to you as wel.

You're making liberal minds catch on fire.....
They're already burnt.

Since the second Bush was elected I've made it a policy not sell when a dem is in office.

sorry about the edit, quote is duping bad tonight. whether you should sell or not depends on portfolio size, whether you are value investing, what type and most importantly if you know your downside. For example, virtually all of my current puts are set to expire inaugeration day. One word about deregulation and/or Jawboning 90% of them will expire worthless.
 
Show me proof of millions of approved sub-prime mortgages.
Pieces of paper run through paper shredders.
Yet another attempt at distraction by a man looking utterly foolish. Focus, my question was related to your (since denied) claim that BLS has phony data, not mortgages.

You inability to connect dots is boring me to tears...go read The Wall Street Journal with Ted Cruz and his wife at Goldman-Sachs.
I'll hang out with the people who voted for Trump.
Your political leanings is about as interesting as your fascinating narratives about how many of your friends have advanced education, but back to the point I think we've clearly established that you cannot support you claim that BLS has phony data. Your feeble attempts to back up your argument have been nothing more than demonstrations of being naive and pathetic references to the wonderful education levels achieved by your peers.

Obviously you have no idea if BLS data is phony, and no evidence it isn't audited. Keep on trucking, and hey... tell me more about how you run in educated circles that shit convinces me every time!
Yawn...
 
Hmm to keep you awake I'll post my nominees for funniest shit you shoveled in this thread. There are so many to choose from but I think I can narrow it down to three.


1. Your belief that constantly bragging about how smart your friends are is going to win an argument

You will never personally know as many people with advanced degrees as I do.
I personally know 200+ MDs
I know enough PhDs


2. Your utterly asinine belief that data on part-time for economic reasons comes from CEP, when it was clearly shown it comes from CPS Household Survey

The BLS gets it's data from companies
The data comes from COMPANIES
How do we know the data from companies is true?
The BLS get massaged data from companies


3. The attempts at lying about what you said when backed into a corner

Once again, no one said phony data.
I couldn't care any less about the what the BLS has to say about anything. Their phony data


I'm sure our panel of experts on fail-posting can come up with a winner from these fine candidates!
 
Hmm to keep you awake I'll post my nominees for funniest shit you shoveled in this thread. There are so many to choose from but I think I can narrow it down to three.


1. Your belief that constantly bragging about how smart your friends are is going to win an argument

You will never personally know as many people with advanced degrees as I do.
I personally know 200+ MDs
I know enough PhDs


2. Your utterly asinine belief that data on part-time for economic reasons comes from CEP, when it was clearly shown it comes from CPS Household Survey

The BLS gets it's data from companies
The data comes from COMPANIES
How do we know the data from companies is true?
The BLS get massaged data from companies


3. The attempts at lying about what you said when backed into a corner

Once again, no one said phony data.
I couldn't care any less about the what the BLS has to say about anything. Their phony data


I'm sure our panel of experts on fail-posting can come up with a winner from these fine candidates!

I bow to your superior intellect and real-life experience.
 
I bow to your superior intellect and real-life experience.
A good move.

Anyone who compulsively brings up how many of their friends have PhDs should bow to just about anyone, I'm pretty sure that is in the douche-bag guidelines for the forum.
 
Many "experts" have been "predicting" a "crash" since early February.

The S&P is up 22.53% since February 11 (Ref: SPY).

Trying to time the market is a fool's errand.
.

I don't have my own stock investments, but as a 401k person at age 41, market corrections are no big deal as you get more shares per $ when the market tanks, and before age 55 or so, share count is more important than value. The key is to begin to move your assets over to safer funds at the right times.
 

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