How Much Warming Does CO2 Really Cause?

Discussion in 'Environment' started by westwall, Mar 3, 2011.

  1. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Turns out it's not nearly as much as the IPCC says. This paper will be presented to the EGU General Assembly in Vienna. This particular researcher found the IPCC overstated the CO2 effect by seven times, sound familiar?

    The paper needs to be attacked to make sure the methodologies hold up but what is here is intriguing.

    http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2011/EGU2011-4505-1.pdf
     
  2. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Oddly, I did not see in the abstract whether this was refering to a doubling of the present level, or a doubling of the pre-industrial level of 280 ppm. Since we have achieved far more than 0.45 C with an increase of only 110 ppm, I think that there models will be shown to be very poor predictors of the increase in temperatures as the CO2 approaches 550 ppm.

    http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2011/EGU2011-4505-1.pdf

    The simulations for the terrestrial and atmospheric warm-up show well attenuating and saturating progressions with increasing CO2-concentration, mainly caused by the strongly saturating absorption of the intensive CO2 bands and the interference with water lines. The climate sensitivity CS as a measure for the temperature increase found, when the actual CO2-concentration is doubled, assumesCS = 0.41°C for the tropical zone, CS = 0.40°C for the moderate zones and CS = 0.92°C for the polar zones. The weighted average over all regions as the global climate sensitivity is found to be CS = 0.45°C with an estimated uncertainty of 30%, which mostly results from the lack of more precise data for the convection between the ground and atmosphere as well as the atmospheric backscattering.
    The values for the global climate sensitivity published by the IPCC [3] cover a range from 2.1°C – 4.4°C with an average value of 3.2°C, which is seven times larger than that predicted here.
     

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