How many of the talking heads' "predictions" actually come true?

[Vast LWC]

Now, I haven't really taken a look at the veracity of "predictions" of left-wing talking heads, and I'm sure this probably holds true for them too, but I've noticed that a whole lot of the "predictions" of Right-wing talking heads are dead wrong. A large majority of said predictions, in fact.

So, here's my question:

If the major talking heads in the media are wrong with the predictions they make, a majority of the time, then why do people continue to listen to them?

 

[Vast LWC]

An interesting study was done recently by Dr Philip Tetlock on the subject.

It seems that Tetlock has spent two decades asking foreign policy experts to make predictions about world events, and then tracking their accuracy. In that time, he has assembled a database of more than 80,000 individual predictions by 284 experts.

The result: Expertise and experience made very little difference. Experts on the whole barely outperform a coin toss in predicting the future. That's something to keep in mind the next time experts are asked for advice on whether to make war or peace.

The best experts, a group Tetlock calls foxes, can get their success rate up to nearly 60 percent - better than "heads or tails," but not by much. In his 2005 book, "Expert Political Judgment," Tetlock contrasts these foxes, who approach problems from multiple points of view, with another group he calls hedgehogs. The hedgehogs are more ideological, draw conclusions from a single overarching theory, and make more mistakes. The labels stem from an aphorism employed by Isaiah Berlin: "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing."

A talk with Philip Tetlock - The Boston Globe

Perhaps the fact that virtually ALL popular political talk show hosts are "hedgehogs" has something to do with it.

Expert Political Judgment:
How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Philip E. Tetlock

 

[Vast LWC]

Here is a really funny video.

Peter Schiff makes a bunch of accurate predictions, and all the talking heads scoff at him.

YouTube - Peter Schiff Was Right 2006 - 2007 (2nd Edition)

 

[Vast LWC]

Seriously, anyone who really wants a laugh should watch the video I linked above.

 

[Avatar4321]

What predictions have been made and by whom?

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

Here is a really funny video.

Peter Schiff makes a bunch of accurate predictions, and all the talking heads scoff at him.

YouTube - Peter Schiff Was Right 2006 - 2007 (2nd Edition)

That is a funny video. It's also why his run for Chris Dodd's Senate seat should be very interesting. If he can win the Republican primary it should be hilarious to see a debate between Schiff and Dodd.

 

[Oddball]

Here is a really funny video.

Peter Schiff makes a bunch of accurate predictions, and all the talking heads scoff at him.

YouTube - Peter Schiff Was Right 2006 - 2007 (2nd Edition)

The hilarious incongruity of you linking to anything said by Peter Schiff in agreement is almost too much to bear!

 

[Oscar Wao]

Here is a really funny video.

Peter Schiff makes a bunch of accurate predictions, and all the talking heads scoff at him.

YouTube - Peter Schiff Was Right 2006 - 2007 (2nd Edition)

That is a funny video. It's also why his run for Chris Dodd's Senate seat should be very interesting. If he can win the Republican primary it should be hilarious to see a debate between Schiff and Dodd.

Hopefully it'll happen (Schiff winning the primary)

 

[Oddball]

Peter Schiff on the floor of the Senate would make me want to watch C-SPAN 2.

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

Here is a really funny video.

Peter Schiff makes a bunch of accurate predictions, and all the talking heads scoff at him.

YouTube - Peter Schiff Was Right 2006 - 2007 (2nd Edition)

That is a funny video. It's also why his run for Chris Dodd's Senate seat should be very interesting. If he can win the Republican primary it should be hilarious to see a debate between Schiff and Dodd.

Hopefully it'll happen (Schiff winning the primary)

I think ANYONE can Beat the cheat Dodd....if not then we deserve our failure of a government to totally finish screwing over our countries future like they have been doing for years now.

 

[Vast LWC]

Here is a really funny video.

Peter Schiff makes a bunch of accurate predictions, and all the talking heads scoff at him.

YouTube - Peter Schiff Was Right 2006 - 2007 (2nd Edition)

The hilarious incongruity of you linking to anything said by Peter Schiff in agreement is almost too much to bear!

Hey, when someone is CORRECT about things, I sit up and listen.

Some of Mr Schiff's other general views may be a bit off, in my opinion, but as far as the causes of the housing/financial crisis are concerned, the man was right on, and thus deserves some respect, Republican or not.

In fact, many of the things he expressed in the various interviews in that clip are things that I have also expressed. Truth supercedes partisanship.

Mind you, all the people who were calling him "crazy" and making fun of his pessimism were regular FoxNews talking heads. And I've expressed in the past, I hate most talking heads more than anyone in the world, left or right.

 

[midcan5]

Why do people listen - TV dominates the airwaves. Why do people believe is the harder part? Consider that FDR was going to make us a socialist nation per the wingnuts of those days, and you wonder, not why they watch, but why they believe? What is it in Fox news that makes buffoons out of so many? What piece of the spin captures their imagination, is the negative or the insecurity that makes so many believe the hopeless nonsense?

http://www.usmessageboard.com/stock-market/71575-outsmarted-by-a-rat.html

 

[JW Frogen]

Everyone read Melville, and then realise the Great White Whale is you, and guess what, so is fucking Ahab.

Weeeeeeeeeee, humanity.

 

[Oddball]

Why do people listen - TV dominates the airwaves. Why do people believe is the harder part? Consider that FDR was going to make us a socialist nation ....

Considering that he stole the New Deal lock, stock and barrel from avowed socialist Eugene Debs, it's safe to say that he was successful in doing so.

 

[Avatar4321]

still dont know what pedictions by whom we are talking about.

 

[MarcATL]

Here's one Talking Putz that NEVER gets anything right:

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8Uq7t4biJo]YouTube - Ann Coulter Gets OWNED by a Democrat![/ame]