How many of the talking heads' "predictions" actually come true?

Discussion in 'Media' started by Vast LWC, Sep 8, 2009.

  1. Vast LWC
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    Vast LWC <-Mohammed

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    Now, I haven't really taken a look at the veracity of "predictions" of left-wing talking heads, and I'm sure this probably holds true for them too, but I've noticed that a whole lot of the "predictions" of Right-wing talking heads are dead wrong. A large majority of said predictions, in fact.

    So, here's my question:

    If the major talking heads in the media are wrong with the predictions they make, a majority of the time, then why do people continue to listen to them?
     
  2. Vast LWC
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    Vast LWC <-Mohammed

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    An interesting study was done recently by Dr Philip Tetlock on the subject.

    It seems that Tetlock has spent two decades asking foreign policy experts to make predictions about world events, and then tracking their accuracy. In that time, he has assembled a database of more than 80,000 individual predictions by 284 experts.

    The result: Expertise and experience made very little difference. Experts on the whole barely outperform a coin toss in predicting the future. That's something to keep in mind the next time experts are asked for advice on whether to make war or peace.

    The best experts, a group Tetlock calls foxes, can get their success rate up to nearly 60 percent - better than "heads or tails," but not by much. In his 2005 book, "Expert Political Judgment," Tetlock contrasts these foxes, who approach problems from multiple points of view, with another group he calls hedgehogs. The hedgehogs are more ideological, draw conclusions from a single overarching theory, and make more mistakes. The labels stem from an aphorism employed by Isaiah Berlin: "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing."

    A talk with Philip Tetlock - The Boston Globe


    Perhaps the fact that virtually ALL popular political talk show hosts are "hedgehogs" has something to do with it.

    Expert Political Judgment:
    How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
    Philip E. Tetlock
     
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    Last edited: Sep 8, 2009
  3. Vast LWC
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    Vast LWC <-Mohammed

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  4. Vast LWC
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    Vast LWC <-Mohammed

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    Seriously, anyone who really wants a laugh should watch the video I linked above.
     
  5. Avatar4321
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    Avatar4321 Diamond Member Gold Supporting Member

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    What predictions have been made and by whom?
     
  6. Kevin_Kennedy
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    Kevin_Kennedy Defend Liberty

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    That is a funny video. It's also why his run for Chris Dodd's Senate seat should be very interesting. If he can win the Republican primary it should be hilarious to see a debate between Schiff and Dodd.
     
  7. Oddball
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    Oddball BANNED Supporting Member

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    The hilarious incongruity of you linking to anything said by Peter Schiff in agreement is almost too much to bear! :rofl:
     
  8. Oscar Wao
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    Oscar Wao Victory is Mine

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    Hopefully it'll happen (Schiff winning the primary)
     
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  9. Oddball
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    Oddball BANNED Supporting Member

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    Peter Schiff on the floor of the Senate would make me want to watch C-SPAN 2.
     
  10. PLYMCO_PILGRIM
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    PLYMCO_PILGRIM Gold Member

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    I think ANYONE can Beat the cheat Dodd....if not then we deserve our failure of a government to totally finish screwing over our countries future like they have been doing for years now.
     

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