How long do we actually have?

[Crick]

The Probability of Collisions with Earth

NASA knows of no asteroid or comet currently on a collision course with Earth, so the probability of a major collision is quite small. In fact, as best as we can tell, no large object is likely to strike the Earth any time in the next several hundred years. To be able to better calculate the statistics, astronomers need to detect as many of the near-Earth objects as possible. It's likely that we could identify a threatening near-Earth object large enough to potentially cause catastrophic changes in the Earth's environment, and most astronomers believe that a systematic approach to studying asteroids and comets that pass close to the Earth makes good sense. It's too late for the dinosaurs, but today astronomers are conducting ever-increasing searches to identify all of the larger objects which pose an impact danger to Earth.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Then why did 100-300 footer not only once but 3 times the past 5 years pass between earth and our moon??? Why exactly are you against asteroid defense?? I thought you believed in spending money?

 

[westwall]

The Probability of Collisions with Earth

NASA knows of no asteroid or comet currently on a collision course with Earth, so the probability of a major collision is quite small. In fact, as best as we can tell, no large object is likely to strike the Earth any time in the next several hundred years. To be able to better calculate the statistics, astronomers need to detect as many of the near-Earth objects as possible. It's likely that we could identify a threatening near-Earth object large enough to potentially cause catastrophic changes in the Earth's environment, and most astronomers believe that a systematic approach to studying asteroids and comets that pass close to the Earth makes good sense. It's too late for the dinosaurs, but today astronomers are conducting ever-increasing searches to identify all of the larger objects which pose an impact danger to Earth.

Here's one that has a 1 in 4000 chance of hitting us in the year 2880. This is one of tens of thousands. Furthermore, there is zero evidence that a one degree, two degree, or even 5 degree increase in global temperature will do anything bad. The "studies" that you all quote are based on computer models that ignore the very real historical data we do have that show warmer has been better.


Asteroid that 'could end human life' is heading for Earth, scientists say

Asteroid that could end human life is heading for Earth scientists say - Science - News - The Independent

 

[Crick]

The Probability of Collisions with Earth

NASA knows of no asteroid or comet currently on a collision course with Earth, so the probability of a major collision is quite small. In fact, as best as we can tell, no large object is likely to strike the Earth any time in the next several hundred years. To be able to better calculate the statistics, astronomers need to detect as many of the near-Earth objects as possible. It's likely that we could identify a threatening near-Earth object large enough to potentially cause catastrophic changes in the Earth's environment, and most astronomers believe that a systematic approach to studying asteroids and comets that pass close to the Earth makes good sense. It's too late for the dinosaurs, but today astronomers are conducting ever-increasing searches to identify all of the larger objects which pose an impact danger to Earth.

Here's one that has a 1 in 4000 chance of hitting us in the year 2880. This is one of tens of thousands. Furthermore, there is zero evidence that a one degree, two degree, or even 5 degree increase in global temperature will do anything bad. The "studies" that you all quote are based on computer models that ignore the very real historical data we do have that show warmer has been better.


Asteroid that 'could end human life' is heading for Earth, scientists say

Asteroid that could end human life is heading for Earth scientists say - Science - News - The Independent

2880? You think we should stop all efforts to mitigate the warming that within the next century will force the relocation of hundreds of millions of people and which will cause crop failures and water shortages worldwide, to figure out how to cope with a 1 in 4,000 chance of an impact OVER 800 YEARS IN THE FUTURE? You think THAT is our biggest risk?

God are you STUPID. Or absurdly dishonest. Take your pick.

 

[skookerasbil]

Then why did 100-300 footer not only once but 3 times the past 5 years pass between earth and our moon??? Why exactly are you against asteroid defense?? I thought you believed in spending money?

Holy Mother of God!!!


s0n.....a small soap dish has more common sense than you!!!


"Asteroid defense"!!!


How about while we are at it, build safer barrier guard rails on every highway to prevent car accident deaths!! Coastline netting to prevent shark attacks!! Automatic inflatables around all ladders so if somebody falls............or best yet, how about those giant walls scientists think we should build to stop the mega-tornado's??!!!


Yeah.......lets do it all!!!




[URL=http://s42.photobucket.com/user/baldaltima/media/3612607838_597a483e25_1.jpg.html][/URL]

 

[Crick]

Then why did 100-300 footer not only once but 3 times the past 5 years pass between earth and our moon??? Why exactly are you against asteroid defense?? I thought you believed in spending money?

I am NOT opposed to asteroid defense, the first step of which is asteroid detection and motion analysis. The next step seems to be the ability to steer an asteroid out of a dangerous path. The currently proposed mission to capture an asteroid and bring it to a high lunar orbit would require the development of most of the necessary technologies and I am in full support of the idea. I would increase NASA's budget currently allotted to such efforts. I think a doubling or tripling would be completely appropriate. What I would NOT do is stop spending on GHG mitigation efforts. And if it somehow came down to a hard choice between the two, I'd have to go with AGW mitigation. It is far more likely to affect us and far more likely to affect us earlier.

 

[Old Rocks]

We have until a big effing asteroid comes and cleans our clock. Mankind can fix almost anything he does provided he does so before it has completely disappeared (think rain forests, once they're gone, they're gone) but unless mankind really spends some time and money to develop a asteroid defense system we are living on borrowed time.

Mr. Westwall, the mathematical chances of a very dangerous impact are extremely small, the mathematical chances of the ongoing climatic change doing us damage is 100%.


Size
Number near Earth
Frequency of impacts
Last impact
Annual probability of impact
10 - 50m


2 hundred million

1 in every 5 years

Siberia, 1908: area not populated.

0.2

100m

2 hundred thousand

1 in every thousand years

China, 1490: 10,000 deaths

0.001

1-2km

2 thousand

1 in every 100,000 to 1 million years

Argentina, 3 million years ago: local extinctions and global cooling

0.00001

15km

50

1 in every 65 million years

Mexico, 65 million years ago: dinosaur extinction

0.00000002





Even though the largest asteroids could cause mass extinctions, the likelihood of one hitting the earth is almost negligible. Smaller asteroids are more likely to impact and so are more of a risk.



CLICK FOR AN ASTEROID IMPACT RISK SCALE.

 

[Abishai100]

Sand Squeamish

If we have the mindset, "If everything goes wrong on Earth, we can always build a haven colony on the Moon," then we'll procedurally waste every planet and rock we land on in the universe.

The Chinese were supposedly drilling regions of Buddhist-austere Tibet for oil, and thinking about what can be wrought from American deserts surely makes us think of OPEC.

When I think of the strange insect, the Gerridae, a water-strider that can balance itself on the sensitive hydrogen-bonded molecules in a body of water, I think about how nature itself provides us clues that it does not need synthetic and unnatural tampering.

Anybody see the environment-paranoia Hollywood (USA) movie "Red Planet" (2000)?




Red Planet (Film)

 

[Crick]

No, missed that one. Why?