How high's the water, Papa?

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Old Rocks, Sep 28, 2011.

  1. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Climate Change: The Next Generation: Richard P. Allan & Brian J. Soden, Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes

    Science Magazine: Science Express / 7 August 2008 / Page 2 / 10.1126/science.116078


    Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes


    Richard P. Allan¹* and Brian J. Soden²


    ¹Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, Berkshire, RG6 6AL, U.K.


    ²Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, FL 33149, USA.



    Abstract



    Climate models suggest that extreme precipitation events will become more common in an anthropogenically warmed climate. However observational limitations have hindered a direct evaluation of model projected changes in extreme precipitation. Here we use satellite observations and model simulations to examine the
    response of tropical precipitation events to naturally driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric
    moisture content. These observations reveal a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature, with heavy rain events increasing during warm periods and decreasing during cold periods. Furthermore, the
    observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger than predicted by models, implying that
    projections of future changes in rainfall extremes due to anthropogenic global warming may be underestimated.
     
  2. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Higher hydroclimatic intensity with global warming


    F. Giorgi*, E-S. Im*, E. Coppola*, N. S. Diffenbaugh**, X. J. Gao***, L. Mariotti*, and Y. Shi***
    * Earth System Physics Section, International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy
    ** Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
    *** National Climate Center, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China


    Abstract



    Because of their dependence on water, natural and human systems are highly sensitive to changes in the hydrologic cycle. We introduce a new measure of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT), which integrates metrics of precipitation intensity and dry spell length, viewing the response of these two metrics to global warming as deeply interconnected. Using a suite of global and regional climate model experiments, we find that increasing HY-INT is a consistent and ubiquitous signature of 21st century greenhouse gas-induced global warming. Depending on the region, the increase in HY-INT is due to an increase in precipitation intensity, dry spell length, or both. Late 20th century observations also exhibit dominant positive HY-INT trends, providing a hydroclimatic signature of late 20th century warming. We find that increasing HY-INT is physically consistent with the response of both precipitation intensity and dry spell length to global warming. Precipitation intensity increases due to increased atmospheric water holding capacity. Rather, increases in mean precipitation are tied to increases in surface evaporation rates, which are lower than for atmospheric moisture. This leads to a reduction in the number of wet days and an increase in dry spell length. Our analysis identifies increasing hydroclimatic intensity as a robust integrated response to global warming, implying increasing risks for systems that are sensitive to wet and dry extremes and providing a potential target for detection and attribution of hydroclimatic changes.


    AMS Journals Online - Higher hydroclimatic intensity with global warming.
     
  3. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    Wilkes-barre PA had a "once in a thousand years" flood event in 1972.

    Then the Susquehanna rise 39 feet.

    So they built a retaining wall that was 40' high

    This year (39 years later) the Susquehanna watershed had is second "Once in a thousand year" flooding event.

    The Susquehanna rose 41'8".

    Now that could be just a BLACK SWAN event, that IS true.

    OR..............

    It suggests that the estimates for how bad things normally can get was wrong;


    OR ..............

    The climate is getting much wetter in the NE quantrant of the USA.

    Take you pick and plan accordingly.
     
  4. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Of course, when there are enough 'Black Swan' events, then we are no longer seeing an anomoly, but a trend.
     
  5. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    And you can show us in a laboratory how this is due to an additional wisp of CO2?
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2011
  6. Si modo
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    Si modo Diamond Member

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    Fail.

    Good propaganda, but nothing scientific to demonstrate man-made CO2 caused it.
     
  7. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    LOL. Si just knows so much more than all the scientists that authored those articles. What a sad commentary on her ego.
     
  8. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    LOL. Crudader Frank and Si Modo, now there are a pair to draw to.
     
  9. Si modo
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    Si modo Diamond Member

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    So, you post an article about a model demonstrating something yet the model has no actual data to demonstrate whether it correlates to the real world, by their own admission, and you believe you have proven something.

    That is nice paper about a model that has yet to be shown to correlate with actual data. Nice model, but that's about it.

    And, you post another article demonstrating that more moisture in our climate and more rain events indicates warming.

    Uh huh. Sure. More warming.

    So, what could either of these have to do with providing support for the APW hypothesis?











    Moron.
     
  10. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Hmmm..... Queensland Australia. The Missouri and Mississippi rivers. The Northeast of this nation.
    Pakistan. All in less than two years. Seems to be a pretty good example of more water in the atmosphere.
     

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