How bad is the economy?

[akiak]

95 % of people in the US are employed.

 

[roomy]

95 % of people in the US are employed.

I doubt that figure.

 

[Zoomie1980]

95 % of people in the US are employed.

Actually of those that actually WANT to work over 98% are employed and most of those are under FULL benefits.

 

[Paulie]

95 % of people in the US are employed.

You came to that conclusion, I would imagine, because the unemployment rate hovers around 5%.. But that completely ignores the fact that many people do not claim unemployment, and either work on and off under the table, collect welfare and never work at ALL, and a whole host of other variables.

95% employment is a ridiculous statement, brotha.

 

[Toro]

95 % of people in the US are employed.

Actually, that's not true. 62% of the people are employed.

The unemployment rate is 5.5%. The augmented rate of unemployment, which the government includes an estimate of those who have dropped out of the workforce but would take a job if they were offered one, is about 8.5%.

How bad is the economy? Its a mild recession that will last longer than usual.

 

[Zoomie1980]

Actually, that's not true. 62% of the people are employed.

The unemployment rate is 5.5%. The augmented rate of unemployment, which the government includes an estimate of those who have dropped out of the workforce but would take a job if they were offered one, is about 8.5%.

How bad is the economy? Its a mild recession that will last longer than usual.

An official unemployment rate of 4-4.5% is generally considered to be FULL employment in a Western society. At 5% companies are beginning to experience some problems in hiring and keeping staff, at 4.5% they are having frequent labor shortages, especially skilled labor, at 4% is is a major problem and an employment CRISIS at 3.5%.

I wonder what the national mood would be if we had a REAL deep recession ala late 1982- early 1983? It's been so long, I think most people have forgotten what they are really like. 10%+ unemployment, 2%+ DECLINE in growth (we are still +.6% in this "recession"), and inflation at 10%+ (we are currently running about 7% or so).

BTW, most of western Europe has been at 10-15% unemployment now for over 30 years....

 

[Alpha1]

Just think back to the good old days .... of Jimmy Carter.....interest rates pushing 19% and inflation at 13 or 14%.....
The children here don't have a clue what a floundering economy is.....

 

[Paulie]

Just think back to the good old days .... of Jimmy Carter.....interest rates pushing 19% and inflation at 13 or 14%.....

Have patience, my friend.

 

[Toro]

An official unemployment rate of 4-4.5% is generally considered to be FULL employment in a Western society. At 5% companies are beginning to experience some problems in hiring and keeping staff, at 4.5% they are having frequent labor shortages, especially skilled labor, at 4% is is a major problem and an employment CRISIS at 3.5%.

I wonder what the national mood would be if we had a REAL deep recession ala late 1982- early 1983? It's been so long, I think most people have forgotten what they are really like. 10%+ unemployment, 2%+ DECLINE in growth (we are still +.6% in this "recession"), and inflation at 10%+ (we are currently running about 7% or so).

BTW, most of western Europe has been at 10-15% unemployment now for over 30 years....

I don't think we're going to get back to the 1980s. But I do think this malaise will last longer than people think. There are just too many problems in the economy that have to be worked out over time.

Employment growth has been very poor in Europe over the past 10-15 years, but up until the mid-80s, early-90s, Europe's economic growth was in line with America's. Unemployment is around 8-9% in Europe, the lowest in some time.

 

[Zoomie1980]

I don't think we're going to get back to the 1980s. But I do think this malaise will last longer than people think. There are just too many problems in the economy that have to be worked out over time.

Employment growth has been very poor in Europe over the past 10-15 years, but up until the mid-80s, early-90s, Europe's economic growth was in line with America's. Unemployment is around 8-9% in Europe, the lowest in some time.

I think we've bottommed out but any recovery is a while away.

It's not just problems with the economy, we are in one of those once a century societal upheavals where we undergo radical changes. This time the change is a painful combination of finally weaning ourselves off the standard energy source for the last 100+ years and all the social and cultural upheaval that come along with that, and the end of a long line of ever increasing generational standard of living increases. The next generation may be the first in many generations that will NOT enjoy a higher standard of living than the preceding one....mostly because of the cataclysmic nature of moving away from and oil based culture to whatever follows...a PAINFUL transition. Kind of like the transition from a largely agrarian society in the late 19th century to an industrial one by the early 20th...

 

[editec]

When the bubble in oil prices bursts, things will improve somewhat.

 

[Skull Pilot]

Life Is Good, So Why Do We Feel So Bad? - WSJ.com






The Democratic National Committee recently ran an ad blasting John McCain for saying the country is "better off" than in 2000. Yet, arguably, except as regards the Iraq war, Mr. McCain's statement is true. In turn, Mr. McCain is blasting Barack Obama for suggesting that international tensions are not as bad as they've been made to seem. Yet, arguably, Mr. Obama is right.

Democratic attacks on Mr. McCain and Republican attacks on Mr. Obama both seek to punish impermissibly positive thoughts. At a time when there exists a sense of crisis over the economy, fuel prices and many other issues, this reinforces the odd, two realities of life in the United States today: The way we are, and the way we think we are. The way we are could use some work, but overall, is pretty good. The way we think we are is terrible, horrible, awful. Possibly worse.


Chad Crowe
The case that things are basically pretty good? Unemployment is 5.5%, low by historical standards; income is rising slightly ahead of inflation; housing prices are down, but the typical house is still worth a third more than in 2000; 94% of Americans do not have threatened mortgages, and of those who do, most will keep their homes.

Inflation was up in 2007, but this stands out because the 16 previous years were close to inflation-free; living standards are the highest they have ever been, including living standards for the middle class and for the poor.

All forms of pollution other than greenhouse gases are in decline; cancer, heart disease and stroke incidence are declining; crime is in a long-term cycle of significant decline; education levels are at all-time highs.

Sure, gas prices are up, the dollar is weak and credit is tight – but these are complaints at the margin of a mainly healthy society.

Yet the mood of public discourse is four-alarm panic. A recent CBS News/New York Times poll showed "Americans' views on the economy and the general state of the country have hit an all-time low," with 81% saying the nation is on the "wrong track" – the worst-ever number for this barometer. Some 78% told pollsters the U.S. is worse off today than five years ago, the highest percentage to say this since the CBS News/New York Times survey began tracking the question in 1986. Watch any news channel, listen to any political debate, read any pundit. The consensus is we're headed to hell in a handbasket.

Campaigning in Pennsylvania in April, Hillary Clinton said "We need to go back to the prosperity of the 1990s," a comment that drew loud, enthusiastic applause. Converted to today's dollars, per-capita income in the Keystone State is 23% higher than in 1990. People may think Pennsylvania was more prosperous in the past, but the state is better off today. The same can be said for most (needless to say, not all) parts of the country and most demographics. Most are, right now, the best-off they have ever been.

Some of the current gloom-and-doom may be explained by the human propensity to romanticize the past. Just what past would we return to, anyway? The 1950s, when there was systemic prejudice against African-Americans, women and gays? The 1960s, when inflation-adjusted per capita income was far lower than today? The 1970s, when high inflation rates wiped out paychecks and high interest rates made home buying difficult? The 1980s, when investors and people with pension funds were rooting for the Dow Jones to break 2000?

Of course a long, bloody and costly war being fought for no clear purpose depresses the national mood – as it should. The rest of the negativity is hard to fathom. Economic growth is slow, but even if a recession has begun, occasional cycles of slow or no growth are the price we pay for the much longer cycles of boom. Since 1992, the percentage of Americans who tell pollsters of the Pew Research Center they "can afford what they want" has risen steadily – from 39% in 1992 to 52% today, the highest ever. So why do we think the economy is failing?

Increasing pessimism from the news media is surely a factor – and the media grow ever-better at giving negative impressions. Now we don't just hear about threats or natural disasters, we see immediate live footage, creating the impression that threats and disasters are everywhere.

Whatever goes wrong in the country or around the world is telecast 24/7, making us think the world is falling to pieces – even when most things are getting better for most people, even in developing nations. If a factory closes, that's news. If a factory opens, that's not a story. You've heard about the factories Ford and General Motors have closed in this decade. Have you heard about the factories Toyota, Honda and other automakers opened in the U.S. in the same period? The jobs there have solid, long-term prospects.

The relentlessly negative impressions of American life presented by the media, including the entertainment media, explain something otherwise puzzling that shows up in psychological data. When asked about the country's economy, schools, health care or community spirit, Americans tell pollsters the situation is dreadful. But when asked about their own jobs, schools, doctors and communities, people tell pollsters the situation is good. Our impressions of ourselves and our neighbors come from personal experience. Our impressions of the nation as a whole come from the media and from political blather, which both exaggerate the negative.

The latter has never been thicker. Democrats insist Republicans are ruining domestic policy, Republicans insist Democrats are ruining foreign policy. Neither claim is true, but both reflect what we've been conditioned to believe: that America is in much worse circumstances than it actually is.

Mr. Easterbrook, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, is author, most recently, of "The Progress Paradox: How Life Gets Better While People Feel Worse" (Random House, 2004).

Why do we love to complain so much?

 

[editec]

I don't know that people "love to complain".

The economy is not in good shape.

For a whole lot of Americans this is not some interesting thing happening to others, this is their daily lives.

 

[Paulie]

No less blame can be placed upon the citizens, as is placed upon the politicians.

As voters, we enable the corruption by continually voting for the corrupt incumbents, and continually allowing them to sell out our economic prosperity to private bankers.

There's probably a couple hundred million people right now in this country that are all equally as pissed off about our current gasoline prices. Do we do anything about it? Sure, some of us have driven less, but how many of us can stick to that?

Some of the best money we could spend would be organizing these hundred million people to travel to Washington and confront the bastards with pitchforks in hand.

We as citizens have enabled just about every shitty thing that has happened to this country politically.

 

[Zoomie1980]

Life Is Good, So Why Do We Feel So Bad? - WSJ.com






The Democratic National Committee recently ran an ad blasting John McCain for saying the country is "better off" than in 2000. Yet, arguably, except as regards the Iraq war, Mr. McCain's statement is true. In turn, Mr. McCain is blasting Barack Obama for suggesting that international tensions are not as bad as they've been made to seem. Yet, arguably, Mr. Obama is right.

Democratic attacks on Mr. McCain and Republican attacks on Mr. Obama both seek to punish impermissibly positive thoughts. At a time when there exists a sense of crisis over the economy, fuel prices and many other issues, this reinforces the odd, two realities of life in the United States today: The way we are, and the way we think we are. The way we are could use some work, but overall, is pretty good. The way we think we are is terrible, horrible, awful. Possibly worse.


Chad Crowe
The case that things are basically pretty good? Unemployment is 5.5%, low by historical standards; income is rising slightly ahead of inflation; housing prices are down, but the typical house is still worth a third more than in 2000; 94% of Americans do not have threatened mortgages, and of those who do, most will keep their homes.

Inflation was up in 2007, but this stands out because the 16 previous years were close to inflation-free; living standards are the highest they have ever been, including living standards for the middle class and for the poor.

All forms of pollution other than greenhouse gases are in decline; cancer, heart disease and stroke incidence are declining; crime is in a long-term cycle of significant decline; education levels are at all-time highs.

Sure, gas prices are up, the dollar is weak and credit is tight – but these are complaints at the margin of a mainly healthy society.

Yet the mood of public discourse is four-alarm panic. A recent CBS News/New York Times poll showed "Americans' views on the economy and the general state of the country have hit an all-time low," with 81% saying the nation is on the "wrong track" – the worst-ever number for this barometer. Some 78% told pollsters the U.S. is worse off today than five years ago, the highest percentage to say this since the CBS News/New York Times survey began tracking the question in 1986. Watch any news channel, listen to any political debate, read any pundit. The consensus is we're headed to hell in a handbasket.

Campaigning in Pennsylvania in April, Hillary Clinton said "We need to go back to the prosperity of the 1990s," a comment that drew loud, enthusiastic applause. Converted to today's dollars, per-capita income in the Keystone State is 23% higher than in 1990. People may think Pennsylvania was more prosperous in the past, but the state is better off today. The same can be said for most (needless to say, not all) parts of the country and most demographics. Most are, right now, the best-off they have ever been.

Some of the current gloom-and-doom may be explained by the human propensity to romanticize the past. Just what past would we return to, anyway? The 1950s, when there was systemic prejudice against African-Americans, women and gays? The 1960s, when inflation-adjusted per capita income was far lower than today? The 1970s, when high inflation rates wiped out paychecks and high interest rates made home buying difficult? The 1980s, when investors and people with pension funds were rooting for the Dow Jones to break 2000?

Of course a long, bloody and costly war being fought for no clear purpose depresses the national mood – as it should. The rest of the negativity is hard to fathom. Economic growth is slow, but even if a recession has begun, occasional cycles of slow or no growth are the price we pay for the much longer cycles of boom. Since 1992, the percentage of Americans who tell pollsters of the Pew Research Center they "can afford what they want" has risen steadily – from 39% in 1992 to 52% today, the highest ever. So why do we think the economy is failing?

Increasing pessimism from the news media is surely a factor – and the media grow ever-better at giving negative impressions. Now we don't just hear about threats or natural disasters, we see immediate live footage, creating the impression that threats and disasters are everywhere.

Whatever goes wrong in the country or around the world is telecast 24/7, making us think the world is falling to pieces – even when most things are getting better for most people, even in developing nations. If a factory closes, that's news. If a factory opens, that's not a story. You've heard about the factories Ford and General Motors have closed in this decade. Have you heard about the factories Toyota, Honda and other automakers opened in the U.S. in the same period? The jobs there have solid, long-term prospects.

The relentlessly negative impressions of American life presented by the media, including the entertainment media, explain something otherwise puzzling that shows up in psychological data. When asked about the country's economy, schools, health care or community spirit, Americans tell pollsters the situation is dreadful. But when asked about their own jobs, schools, doctors and communities, people tell pollsters the situation is good. Our impressions of ourselves and our neighbors come from personal experience. Our impressions of the nation as a whole come from the media and from political blather, which both exaggerate the negative.

The latter has never been thicker. Democrats insist Republicans are ruining domestic policy, Republicans insist Democrats are ruining foreign policy. Neither claim is true, but both reflect what we've been conditioned to believe: that America is in much worse circumstances than it actually is.

Mr. Easterbrook, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, is author, most recently, of "The Progress Paradox: How Life Gets Better While People Feel Worse" (Random House, 2004).

Why do we love to complain so much?

I would hate to see the reaction if we had a recession even as bad as the one in the early 1980's, which was about as bad an economic run we have had since the Great Depression. The run from 1977-1982 was the worst run we've had in my lifetime.

It will be interesting though, to see how we are going to answer this energy problem, which is really at the root of everything now, now that much of the excess from the housing meltdown has either run its course or will by year's end.

Personnally, I'm looking forward to the environmentalists taking some major and long overdue hits as we start to drill a lot more, build nuclear and coal plants at a rapid rate, put up windmills and solar power, and finally start to kill some useless fish with new dams.

 

[bjones7890]

bad enough that made me think of mov'n out

 

[Chester Burnett]

i quit driving and watching tv and now i dont notice

 

[AllieBaba]

I guess I'm "empoyed".

Yes, the environmentalists are going to take some major and long overdue hits. And Obama will never win the majority with higher taxes when everyone is freaked out about the economy.

 

[p kirkes]

Today's news reports that natural gas prices have/are rising faster and higher, percentage wise, than gasoline.

That means higher utility rates, surcharges and higher prices in commodities above and beyond what the $4.00 per gallon of gasoline is costing us.

The entire economy will feel the effect soon as more citizens and businesses see their cost of living rise dramatically again.

With the new administration comes new expenditures (their agenda items) but less taxes into the coffers. Can anyone say "tax increase"?

I've been free spending for several years but now it looks like hunker down and fort up.

My gasoline consumption has decreased to the point of saving $100.00 on my $400.00 gasoline budget. However, water bill has gone up 17% with no increase in consumption.

Electricity and natural gas bills are expected to go up significantly, with no increase in consumption.

My spending for "nice to have" but not essential items has been greatly curtailed. I don't need a new extension cord, or water hose or pot plants. Cutting down on food, mainly fruits, and red meat. Pork and chicken are still reasonable.

My house brand of Bourbon and Scotch whiskey is still the same price as five years ago.

Some US wines are holding the line, so far. Soft drinks for mixers are up 20%. Learning to take it "neat".


Only one bill to pay down and I should be free and clear by years end.

Learning to walk and talk to neighbors instead of driving around town. Met the juvenile delinquents across the street a couple of day's ago and we hit it off real good. They are feeling the eco pinch too.

Cheers

 

[maneal]

A recession is defined as two consecutive economic quarters that produce a loss. We are not in a recession according to the definition. I agree, economic growth has slowed, however not declined.

We are not in a recession. I am personally doing better than ever in my life. The Liberals should tell all the shoppers in the Northeast and the Midwest that the economy is bad and that they should stop shopping....stop driving.....