How About the Senate.

[JoeB131]

With all this discussion about the Presidential Race, we forget that we have a battle for the Senate.

The GOP needs to pick up three seats to get control.

They have 42 seats that are not up, or safe.

Two seats (AZ and IN) are probably leaning GOP. Three seats are considered vulnerable.
(ME, MA, and NV)

The Democrats have 37 Seats that are not up or safe. They have an additional 8 seats that are open but probably safe. They have six seats that are considered vulnerable (FL, MI, MO, MT, VA, WI.) And two seats they are likely to lose (NE and ND).

So best case for the Democrats, they'll pick up one seat. Worst case scenario, they'll lose 8.

So let's get down to cases.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for the Senate

NE- Bob Kerrey has entered the race, but he's been gone so long no one really remembers who he is.

ND- Republicans- Easy pickup.


ME- Olympia Snowe declaring the GOP has become too crazy for her opens this safe seat up. Maine's politics are bit quirky, so this could go any way.

NV- Heller is defending Ensign's old seat. Polls show this to be a toss up.

MA- Scott Brown is leading in Polls, but this is MA, which is normally pretty liberal. This is the only real chance for a Dem Pickup.

FL- Nelson has a comfortable lead in most polls. Only Mack gets close Dem Hold.

MI- Not even sure why RCP is counting this as a toss up. Hoekstra has dropped like a rock since he ran a racist ad with a Asian-American Actress during the superbowl.

MO- A toss up. McCaskill is running even gainst GOP opponents.

MT- Tester is probably toast. Rep Pickup.

VA- It's former Governor Kaine against Former Senator Allen. I'd say the Democrats hold this one.

WI- Republicans pick this one up if they go with Tommy Thompson.

So the Dems will definitely pick up one (MA) while the Republicans will pick up (ND, NE, MT and WI) ME, NV, MO are toss ups.

Retaining control of the Senate is doable on it.

 

[deaddogseye]

i agree with most of that although ive been reading that the race in ND is surpisingly close still (but in the end the repubs should get it and if they dont that will mean things are such that there is NFW they take the senate.

i dont dismiss scott brown. I agree with you that the numbers are against him and if its a hgh turnout election and a solid obama win, warren will be helped. keep in mind she jumped out to a lead in the polls when she announced and now trails. that is perhaps a good sign that the good people of Mass took a look at her and didnt like what they see. Plus he is a very good guy with a good persona and she is not exactly charismatic.

ME could be a loss. Im told there is some Bernie Sanders type that could run as an independent that could siphon off Dem support. problem is this is easily fixed if the Dems make him their nominee as well.

I loved that hoekstra ad btw - Debbi Spenditnow and the Asian girl.

If i had to pick today i say there repubs will fall just short. i dont see the tpye of wave that will be enough (as evidenced by mckaskill hanging in and the NV seat in play). If you are right they lose mass and they should lose ME IMO. They get ND and Neb (but i dont see either as a lock at the moment).

If obama loses (i dont see that at the moment) they sweep in. If he wins its close and i think they fall short

 

[Polk]

I see it as a wash. Republicans will pick up North Dakota, Nebraska, Missouri, and Montana. However, the Democrats will win Maine, Massachusetts, and Nevada. Virginia and Wisconsin will be the states to watch.

 

[percysunshine]

Colorado will go weird on everyone. Both camps are counting the state as a given. Those state races are the fun ones to watch.

 

[old navy]

Even though I am a rightie, I regret that Sen. Webb is not running for re-election. The Real Clear Politics average of over 10 polls has Kaine and Allen tied at 43.7 percent each.