Holy CRAP, Dick Morris!

[Remodeling Maidiac]

.

Dang, Morris is going out on a limb:

Here Comes the Landslide | RealClearPolitics

He says Romney wins going away.

GOP picks up SIX seats and takes over at 53-47.

Yikes, write that one down. We'll see how he does.

.

One can hope

 

[jwoodie]

If it were 1980 he would be correct. The question is, how much has the country changed since then?

 

[depotoo]

I'd like to know which polls he's been reading...A lot of those places he claims to be (R) locks are still well within the MOE, the recent trends in their direction notwithstanding.

OTOH, if the consistent +6% - +8% (D) oversample of many polls doesn't hold materialize on Tuesday, he could be pretty close to the truth.

if you actually look at the demographics, - if they make them available, (which when they don't I always call them bogus, and throw them out) you will see most all that have huge +'s for Obama are heavily weighted towards Dems.
By RealClearPolitics including them in their averages, this pulls the legitimate numbers quite a bit.

 

[depotoo]

The numbers aren't there for obama. He has been consistently losing support and now clings to leads of 1 or 2% as a statistical tie. Numbers that close usually break for the challenger not the incumbent.

The pollsters are also understating GOP turnout. They base it on 2008 but in 08 no one gave a shit about McCain and the momentum was with Obama so a lot of people stayed home.
This time people will swim through barbed wire to vote out Obama. Obama's supporters meanwhile can't be bothered to hang up their gov't given cell phones and get off their gov't fed asses.

Nobody bases their polls on prior election turnout.

actually many are using the demographics from 2008 for their weighting of the polls.

 

[geauxtohell]

.

Dang, Morris is going out on a limb:

Here Comes the Landslide | RealClearPolitics

He says Romney wins going away.

GOP picks up SIX seats and takes over at 53-47.

Yikes, write that one down. We'll see how he does.

.

Morris is basically the worst political predictioner of our modern times.

I can't remember the last time he was right. He should stick to micro-polling, which he was brilliant at back in the 90s.

Then again, I think he has ingested too much toenail polish and has damaged his brain.

 

[Oddball]

I'd like to know which polls he's been reading...A lot of those places he claims to be (R) locks are still well within the MOE, the recent trends in their direction notwithstanding.

OTOH, if the consistent +6% - +8% (D) oversample of many polls doesn't hold materialize on Tuesday, he could be pretty close to the truth.

if you actually look at the demographics, - if they make them available, (which when they don't I always call them bogus, and throw them out) you will see most all that have huge +'s for Obama are heavily weighted towards Dems.
By RealClearPolitics including them in their averages, this pulls the legitimate numbers quite a bit.

Been looking at them, when available, and have been seeing the obvious over weighting of (D) voters.

If (D)s actually believe that they're going to get a 6% - 8% greater turnout than (R)s, like they did in '08, they definitely have access to better drugs than I can lay my mitts onto.

 

[AceRothstein]

The pollsters are also understating GOP turnout. They base it on 2008 but in 08 no one gave a shit about McCain and the momentum was with Obama so a lot of people stayed home.
This time people will swim through barbed wire to vote out Obama. Obama's supporters meanwhile can't be bothered to hang up their gov't given cell phones and get off their gov't fed asses.

Nobody bases their polls on prior election turnout.

actually many are using the demographics from 2008 for their weighting of the polls.

But they don't do this. They call a certain number of people and weight to hit specific demographics such as age, race and sex. They do not weight based on party, they just report on the party that the respondents answer with.

 

[depotoo]

I'd like to know which polls he's been reading...A lot of those places he claims to be (R) locks are still well within the MOE, the recent trends in their direction notwithstanding.

OTOH, if the consistent +6% - +8% (D) oversample of many polls doesn't hold materialize on Tuesday, he could be pretty close to the truth.

if you actually look at the demographics, - if they make them available, (which when they don't I always call them bogus, and throw them out) you will see most all that have huge +'s for Obama are heavily weighted towards Dems.
By RealClearPolitics including them in their averages, this pulls the legitimate numbers quite a bit.

Been looking at them, when available, and have been seeing the obvious over weighting of (D) voters.

If (D)s actually believe that they're going to get a 6% - 8% greater turnout than (R)s, like they did in '08, they definitely have access to better drugs than I can lay my mitts onto.

dang, somehow I accidently quoted you rather than the one claiming they weren't working with 2008 demo's. Yeah, you are exactly right!

 

[GHook93]

.

Dang, Morris is going out on a limb:

Here Comes the Landslide | RealClearPolitics

He says Romney wins going away.

GOP picks up SIX seats and takes over at 53-47.

Yikes, write that one down. We'll see how he does.

.

I have watched Dicks predictions for years, the man knows his stuff and makes very accurate predictions. I think he is right about Romney, but 53 senate seats seems like a stretch. I say 49-49 with 2 I

 

[mamooth]

So can you name even a single prediction that Dick Morris has made which didn't turn out to be laughably wrong?

 

[Liability]

So can you name even a single prediction that Dick Morris has made which didn't turn out to be laughably wrong?

He seems to have called the 2010 midterms pretty well (albeit not 100%). (And no, the GOP did not take the Senate.)

 

[Dick Tuck]

So can you name even a single prediction that Dick Morris has made which didn't turn out to be laughably wrong?

He seems to have called the 2010 midterms pretty well (albeit not 100%). (And no, the GOP did not take the Senate.)

He really screwed the pooch in his 2008 prediction, didn't he. Most polls showed a Republican pickup in the House and Senate in 2010. He just told wingnuts what they wanted to hear, and once again was wrong.

It's pretty amazing that he can support his hooker toe sucking habit on the backs of the gullible, after being a loser for so long.

 

[AceRothstein]

So can you name even a single prediction that Dick Morris has made which didn't turn out to be laughably wrong?

He seems to have called the 2010 midterms pretty well (albeit not 100%). (And no, the GOP did not take the Senate.)

Didn't he claim there was a chance the GOP would take up to 100 seats in the House? He was off by at least 4 in his Senate prediction.

 

[ginscpy]

Morris has been saying that since August - Romney wins going away.

He is correct.

 

[Dick Tuck]

Morris has been saying that since August - Romney wins going away.

He is correct.

And when the toe jam muncher turns out to be wrong, idiots will still be quoting his next prediction. No matter. Fools like to hear what they want to hear.

 

[Liability]

So can you name even a single prediction that Dick Morris has made which didn't turn out to be laughably wrong?

He seems to have called the 2010 midterms pretty well (albeit not 100%). (And no, the GOP did not take the Senate.)

Didn't he claim there was a chance the GOP would take up to 100 seats in the House? He was off by at least 4 in his Senate prediction.

The House did go GOP. I already noted he was off about the Sente.

Ho hum.

He's not my notion of a go to guy, anyway.

 

[ginscpy]

Morris has been saying that since August - Romney wins going away.

He is correct.

And when the toe jam muncher turns out to be wrong, idiots will still be quoting his next prediction. No matter. Fools like to hear what they want to hear.

Morris has a good track record in his predictions.

Just because you don't like the messenger.

 

[JoeB131]

Morris has been saying that since August - Romney wins going away.

He is correct.

And when the toe jam muncher turns out to be wrong, idiots will still be quoting his next prediction. No matter. Fools like to hear what they want to hear.

Morris has a good track record in his predictions.

Just because you don't like the messenger.

No, actually he has a very poor record of guessing.

Is Dick Morris the world's worst political pundit? | Harry J Enten | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk