Historical record for high and low temps

Old Rocks

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Oct 31, 2008
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Many, many article abstracts from peer reviewed journals, many with full text links.

AGW Observer

Frequency of extremely high temperatures has increased 10-fold since early 20th century

Climate change: a new metric to measure changes in the frequency of extreme temperatures using record data – Munasinghe et al. (2011) “Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric—called “record equivalent draws” (RED)—based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900–1929) and the most recent decade (1999–2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002–2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.” Lalith Munasinghe, Tackseung Jun and David H. Rind, Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0370-8.
 
Well, this is the environmental board. And AGW is affecting the environment as the article clearly shows. There are many other very good articles at that site from peer reviewed sources. Many with full text links.
 
Well, this is the environmental board. And AGW is affecting the environment as the article clearly shows. There are many other very good articles at that site from peer reviewed sources. Many with full text links.

Allow me to clarify. What is the relevance of more record high recorded temps and record low historical temps? The record is quite short.
 
We have good proxy records for general temps for the last several hundred thousand years. And there have been only a few times that temperature changes such as we see happened. And most of those were localized to one hemisphere or the other. These records confirm the fact of world wide rapid warming. As predicted by scientists as long ago as 1896.

Also, a increase of extreme temperatures of an order of magnitude in a century world wide indicates that we had better start planning for consequences now, for we are past the point of prevention.
 
We have good proxy records for general temps for the last several hundred thousand years.

Ah. So a "record" low isn't that big of a deal if it's within the statistical norm then is it?

And there have been only a few times that temperature changes such as we see happened.

I'm not sure that's true, but I don't know the parameters of which you speak.

I know that my town experienced a very "near record" cold day last week which was one week after experiencing a tie for a record high. People remarked about how strange that was, and how it's always strange when it happens every year.

I remember snow in Florida in the 1980s. I remember few white Christmases in Michigan in the 1970s and a few white Easters. I'm not sure the current 200 year record is anything other than a tiny part of the modern post ice age climate cycle.

And most of those were localized to one hemisphere or the other. These records confirm the fact of world wide rapid warming. As predicted by scientists as long ago as 1896.

These records don't prove much when the recorded history is so short. Did you fail statistics or did you just never take it?

Also, a increase of extreme temperatures of an order of magnitude in a century world wide indicates that we had better start planning for consequences now, for we are past the point of prevention.

I'm not sure you understand the phrase "an order of magnitude." We're still talking a few degrees either way here.
 
AGW Observer

Warmer climate makes heavy rain heavier and more frequent and weak rain weaker and less frequent

Mechanisms for global warming impacts on rainfall frequency and intensity – Chou et al. (2011) “Global warming mechanisms that cause changes in frequency and intensity of precipitation in the tropics are examined in climate model simulations. Under global warming, tropical precipitation tends to be more frequent and intense for heavy precipitation, but becomes less frequent and weaker for light precipitation. Changes in precipitation frequency and intensity are both controlled by thermodynamic and dynamic components. The thermodynamic component is induced by changes in atmospheric water vapor, while the dynamic component is associated with changes in vertical motion. A set of equations is derived to estimate both thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to changes in frequency and intensity of precipitation, especially for heavy precipitation. In the thermodynamic contribution, increased water vapor reduces the magnitude of the required vertical motion to generate the same strength of precipitation, so precipitation frequency increases. Increased water vapor also intensifies precipitation due to the enhancement of water vapor availability in the atmosphere. In the dynamic contribution, the more stable atmosphere tends to reduce the frequency and intensity of precipitation, except for the heaviest precipitation. The dynamic component strengthens the heaviest precipitation in most climate model simulations, possibly due to a positive convective feedback.” Chia Chou, Chao-An Chen, Pei-Hua Tan, Kuan Ting Chen, Journal of Climate 2011, doi: AMS Journals Online - Mechanisms for global warming impacts on rainfall frequency and intensity.
 
We have good proxy records for general temps for the last several hundred thousand years.

Ah. So a "record" low isn't that big of a deal if it's within the statistical norm then is it?

And there have been only a few times that temperature changes such as we see happened.

I'm not sure that's true, but I don't know the parameters of which you speak.

I know that my town experienced a very "near record" cold day last week which was one week after experiencing a tie for a record high. People remarked about how strange that was, and how it's always strange when it happens every year.

I remember snow in Florida in the 1980s. I remember few white Christmases in Michigan in the 1970s and a few white Easters. I'm not sure the current 200 year record is anything other than a tiny part of the modern post ice age climate cycle.

And most of those were localized to one hemisphere or the other. These records confirm the fact of world wide rapid warming. As predicted by scientists as long ago as 1896.

These records don't prove much when the recorded history is so short. Did you fail statistics or did you just never take it?

Also, a increase of extreme temperatures of an order of magnitude in a century world wide indicates that we had better start planning for consequences now, for we are past the point of prevention.

I'm not sure you understand the phrase "an order of magnitude." We're still talking a few degrees either way here.

Apparently you do not read the written word that well. An increase of extreme temperatures refers to the number of events of extreme temperatures, not to the temperature itself.

As for the rest of the posts, do a bit of research.
 
Many, many article abstracts from peer reviewed journals, many with full text links.

AGW Observer

Frequency of extremely high temperatures has increased 10-fold since early 20th century

Climate change: a new metric to measure changes in the frequency of extreme temperatures using record data – Munasinghe et al. (2011) “Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric—called “record equivalent draws” (RED)—based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900–1929) and the most recent decade (1999–2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002–2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.” Lalith Munasinghe, Tackseung Jun and David H. Rind, Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0370-8.





I liked these, I wonder where the human influence is?


When climate change emerges from the noise of natural variability?

Spanish pines are selective in showing the decline

Westerlies describe North Atlantic Oscillation back to 1692

El Niño fiddles with European and North Atlantic weather

New article says cosmic rays have strong effect to climate

Cold Arctic winters might come with ozone holes

Observed decrease in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is probably natural fluctuation
 
We have good proxy records for general temps for the last several hundred thousand years.

Ah. So a "record" low isn't that big of a deal if it's within the statistical norm then is it?



I'm not sure that's true, but I don't know the parameters of which you speak.

I know that my town experienced a very "near record" cold day last week which was one week after experiencing a tie for a record high. People remarked about how strange that was, and how it's always strange when it happens every year.

I remember snow in Florida in the 1980s. I remember few white Christmases in Michigan in the 1970s and a few white Easters. I'm not sure the current 200 year record is anything other than a tiny part of the modern post ice age climate cycle.



These records don't prove much when the recorded history is so short. Did you fail statistics or did you just never take it?

Also, a increase of extreme temperatures of an order of magnitude in a century world wide indicates that we had better start planning for consequences now, for we are past the point of prevention.

I'm not sure you understand the phrase "an order of magnitude." We're still talking a few degrees either way here.

Apparently you do not read the written word that well. An increase of extreme temperatures refers to the number of events of extreme temperatures, not to the temperature itself.

As for the rest of the posts, do a bit of research.

Ah. The "number of events of extreme temperatures" is merely a function of available information right?

So if there was an event of extreme temperature 20,000 years ago and nobody was around to report it did it actually happen?
 
Ah. So a "record" low isn't that big of a deal if it's within the statistical norm then is it?



I'm not sure that's true, but I don't know the parameters of which you speak.

I know that my town experienced a very "near record" cold day last week which was one week after experiencing a tie for a record high. People remarked about how strange that was, and how it's always strange when it happens every year.

I remember snow in Florida in the 1980s. I remember few white Christmases in Michigan in the 1970s and a few white Easters. I'm not sure the current 200 year record is anything other than a tiny part of the modern post ice age climate cycle.



These records don't prove much when the recorded history is so short. Did you fail statistics or did you just never take it?



I'm not sure you understand the phrase "an order of magnitude." We're still talking a few degrees either way here.

Apparently you do not read the written word that well. An increase of extreme temperatures refers to the number of events of extreme temperatures, not to the temperature itself.

As for the rest of the posts, do a bit of research.

Ah. The "number of events of extreme temperatures" is merely a function of available information right?

So if there was an event of extreme temperature 20,000 years ago and nobody was around to report it did it actually happen?

Someone may not have recorded it, but many 'somethings' did. And you don't have to go back 20,000 years. Look up Younger Dryas.
 
Many, many article abstracts from peer reviewed journals, many with full text links.

AGW Observer

Frequency of extremely high temperatures has increased 10-fold since early 20th century

Climate change: a new metric to measure changes in the frequency of extreme temperatures using record data – Munasinghe et al. (2011) “Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric—called “record equivalent draws” (RED)—based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900–1929) and the most recent decade (1999–2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002–2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.” Lalith Munasinghe, Tackseung Jun and David H. Rind, Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0370-8.





I liked these, I wonder where the human influence is?


When climate change emerges from the noise of natural variability?

Spanish pines are selective in showing the decline
Westerlies describe North Atlantic Oscillation back to 1692

El Niño fiddles with European and North Atlantic weather

New article says cosmic rays have strong effect to climate

Cold Arctic winters might come with ozone holes

Observed decrease in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is probably natural fluctuation

AGW Observer

Spanish pines are selective in showing the decline
Selective drought-induced decline of pine species in southeastern Spain – Sánchez-Salguero et al. (2012)

Abstract: “The negative impacts of severe drought on the growth and vigor of tree species and their relationship with forest decline have not been properly evaluated taking into account the differential responses to such stress of trees, sites and species. We evaluated these responses by quantifying the changes in radial growth of plantations of four pine species (Pinus sylvestris, Pinus nigra, Pinus pinaster, Pinus halepensis) which showed distinct decline and defoliation levels in southeastern Spain. We used dendrochronological methods, defoliation records, linear mixed models of basal area increment and dynamic factor analysis to quantify the responses of trees at the species and individual scales to site conditions and drought stress. In the region a temperature rise and a decrease in spring precipitation have led to drier conditions during the late twentieth century characterized by severe droughts in the 1990s and 2000s. As expected, the defoliation levels and the reductions in basal area increment were higher in those species more vulnerable to drought-induced xylem embolism (P. sylvestris) than in those more resistant (P. halepensis). Species adapted to xeric conditions but with high growth rates, such as P. pinaster, were also vulnerable to drought-induced decline. The reduction in basal area increment and the defoliation events occurred after consecutive severe droughts. A decrease in spring precipitation, which is the main driver of radial growth, is the most plausible cause of recent forest decline. The sharp growth reduction and widespread defoliation of the most affected pine plantations of Scots pine make their future persistence in drought-prone sites unlikely under the forecasted warmer and drier conditions.”
 
Many, many article abstracts from peer reviewed journals, many with full text links.

AGW Observer

Frequency of extremely high temperatures has increased 10-fold since early 20th century

Climate change: a new metric to measure changes in the frequency of extreme temperatures using record data – Munasinghe et al. (2011) “Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric—called “record equivalent draws” (RED)—based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900–1929) and the most recent decade (1999–2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002–2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.” Lalith Munasinghe, Tackseung Jun and David H. Rind, Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0370-8.





I liked these, I wonder where the human influence is?


When climate change emerges from the noise of natural variability?

Spanish pines are selective in showing the decline

Westerlies describe North Atlantic Oscillation back to 1692

El Niño fiddles with European and North Atlantic weather

New article says cosmic rays have strong effect to climate
Cold Arctic winters might come with ozone holes

Observed decrease in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is probably natural fluctuation

Far more papers providing evidence for the non significance of cosmic rays than papers that state the rays are significant.

Papers on the non-significant role of cosmic rays in climate « AGW Observer


Papers on the non-significant role of cosmic rays in climate
Posted by Ari Jokimäki on August 31, 2009

This list contains papers which show that cosmic rays don’t have significant role in recent climate change, so this list doesn’t contain the papers from Svensmark et al. or other papers symphatetic to the strong role for cosmic rays, but they are presented in a summary on the subject from Sloan (2008) given below. The list is not complete, and will most likely be updated in the future in order to make it more thorough and more representative
 
AGW Observer

Evaluating anthropogenic carbon and its effect to pH in South Pacific Ocean

Changes in South Pacific anthropogenic carbon – Waters et al. (2011) “The changes in anthropogenic CO2 are evaluated in the South Pacific, along the meridional line P18 (110°W) and the zonal line P06 (32°S), using the extended multiple linear regression (eMLR) method. The structure of the column inventory of anthropogenic CO2 on P18 is similar to the southern section of P16 in the central South Pacific (150°W), but the overall increase is greater by approximately 5–10 μmol kg−1. The value of the anthropogenic CO2 inventory on P18 is in agreement at the crossover point of an earlier evaluation of P06. Subsequent changes in pH due to the increase in anthropogenic CO2 are also evaluated. The change in pH is determined from the changes in anthropogenic CO2 and do not reflect variability in other decadal signals. For both cruise tracks, the average annual change in pH is −0.0016 mol kg−1 yr−1. This value is in good agreement with the average decrease in pH in the North Pacific, at the Hawaii Times Series and the subtropical North Atlantic. The uptake rates of anthropogenic CO2 are within reasonable agreement with similar studies in the South Pacific. There is evidence for greater uptake of anthropogenic CO2 in the western South Pacific and is attributed to the formation of subtropical Mode Water in the region.” Waters, J. F., F. J. Millero, and C. L. Sabine (2011), Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 25, GB4011, doi:10.1029/2010GB003988.
 
Many, many article abstracts from peer reviewed journals, many with full text links.

AGW Observer

Frequency of extremely high temperatures has increased 10-fold since early 20th century

Climate change: a new metric to measure changes in the frequency of extreme temperatures using record data – Munasinghe et al. (2011) “Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric—called “record equivalent draws” (RED)—based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900–1929) and the most recent decade (1999–2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002–2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.” Lalith Munasinghe, Tackseung Jun and David H. Rind, Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0370-8.





I liked these, I wonder where the human influence is?


When climate change emerges from the noise of natural variability?

Spanish pines are selective in showing the decline

Westerlies describe North Atlantic Oscillation back to 1692

El Niño fiddles with European and North Atlantic weather

New article says cosmic rays have strong effect to climate
Cold Arctic winters might come with ozone holes

Observed decrease in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is probably natural fluctuation

Far more papers providing evidence for the non significance of cosmic rays than papers that state the rays are significant.

Papers on the non-significant role of cosmic rays in climate « AGW Observer


Papers on the non-significant role of cosmic rays in climate
Posted by Ari Jokimäki on August 31, 2009

This list contains papers which show that cosmic rays don’t have significant role in recent climate change, so this list doesn’t contain the papers from Svensmark et al. or other papers symphatetic to the strong role for cosmic rays, but they are presented in a summary on the subject from Sloan (2008) given below. The list is not complete, and will most likely be updated in the future in order to make it more thorough and more representative




Considering the amount of effort there has been to prevent ANY papers on that subject from even being done I'm not surprised. However CERN's results have been very illuminating havn't they?
 

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