Historical record for high and low temps

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Old Rocks, Jan 10, 2012.

  1. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Many, many article abstracts from peer reviewed journals, many with full text links.

    AGW Observer

    Frequency of extremely high temperatures has increased 10-fold since early 20th century

    Climate change: a new metric to measure changes in the frequency of extreme temperatures using record data – Munasinghe et al. (2011) “Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric—called “record equivalent draws” (RED)—based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900–1929) and the most recent decade (1999–2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002–2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.” Lalith Munasinghe, Tackseung Jun and David H. Rind, Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0370-8.
     
  2. asterism
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    asterism Congress != Progress

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    Relevance?
     
  3. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Well, this is the environmental board. And AGW is affecting the environment as the article clearly shows. There are many other very good articles at that site from peer reviewed sources. Many with full text links.
     
  4. asterism
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    Allow me to clarify. What is the relevance of more record high recorded temps and record low historical temps? The record is quite short.
     
  5. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    We have good proxy records for general temps for the last several hundred thousand years. And there have been only a few times that temperature changes such as we see happened. And most of those were localized to one hemisphere or the other. These records confirm the fact of world wide rapid warming. As predicted by scientists as long ago as 1896.

    Also, a increase of extreme temperatures of an order of magnitude in a century world wide indicates that we had better start planning for consequences now, for we are past the point of prevention.
     
  6. asterism
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    Ah. So a "record" low isn't that big of a deal if it's within the statistical norm then is it?

    I'm not sure that's true, but I don't know the parameters of which you speak.

    I know that my town experienced a very "near record" cold day last week which was one week after experiencing a tie for a record high. People remarked about how strange that was, and how it's always strange when it happens every year.

    I remember snow in Florida in the 1980s. I remember few white Christmases in Michigan in the 1970s and a few white Easters. I'm not sure the current 200 year record is anything other than a tiny part of the modern post ice age climate cycle.

    These records don't prove much when the recorded history is so short. Did you fail statistics or did you just never take it?

    I'm not sure you understand the phrase "an order of magnitude." We're still talking a few degrees either way here.
     
  7. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    AGW Observer

    Warmer climate makes heavy rain heavier and more frequent and weak rain weaker and less frequent

    Mechanisms for global warming impacts on rainfall frequency and intensity – Chou et al. (2011) “Global warming mechanisms that cause changes in frequency and intensity of precipitation in the tropics are examined in climate model simulations. Under global warming, tropical precipitation tends to be more frequent and intense for heavy precipitation, but becomes less frequent and weaker for light precipitation. Changes in precipitation frequency and intensity are both controlled by thermodynamic and dynamic components. The thermodynamic component is induced by changes in atmospheric water vapor, while the dynamic component is associated with changes in vertical motion. A set of equations is derived to estimate both thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to changes in frequency and intensity of precipitation, especially for heavy precipitation. In the thermodynamic contribution, increased water vapor reduces the magnitude of the required vertical motion to generate the same strength of precipitation, so precipitation frequency increases. Increased water vapor also intensifies precipitation due to the enhancement of water vapor availability in the atmosphere. In the dynamic contribution, the more stable atmosphere tends to reduce the frequency and intensity of precipitation, except for the heaviest precipitation. The dynamic component strengthens the heaviest precipitation in most climate model simulations, possibly due to a positive convective feedback.” Chia Chou, Chao-An Chen, Pei-Hua Tan, Kuan Ting Chen, Journal of Climate 2011, doi: AMS Journals Online - Mechanisms for global warming impacts on rainfall frequency and intensity.
     
  8. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Apparently you do not read the written word that well. An increase of extreme temperatures refers to the number of events of extreme temperatures, not to the temperature itself.

    As for the rest of the posts, do a bit of research.
     
  9. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    I liked these, I wonder where the human influence is?


    When climate change emerges from the noise of natural variability?

    Spanish pines are selective in showing the decline

    Westerlies describe North Atlantic Oscillation back to 1692

    El Niño fiddles with European and North Atlantic weather

    New article says cosmic rays have strong effect to climate

    Cold Arctic winters might come with ozone holes

    Observed decrease in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is probably natural fluctuation
     
  10. asterism
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    Ah. The "number of events of extreme temperatures" is merely a function of available information right?

    So if there was an event of extreme temperature 20,000 years ago and nobody was around to report it did it actually happen?
     

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