Hillary by 272 in the Electoral College And Zero Minus Coattails

[william the wie]

Clinton strikes me as a tactically smart/strategically stupid move. Given the way Obama has built up the Rs at the State and congressional levels the threat to the Democrats as a party is that they will be gerrymandered into a mostly regional party with an ever more radical base. Hillary as president will aid this goal.

 

[Nyvin]

I think you're reading into the 2014 midterms too heavily. 2010 wasn't a precedent, 2014 won't be either.

 

[ScienceRocks]

The democrats unless they pull another furgason or Balitmore have the electoral advantage this election. 2016 is going to cut even deeper into white power in this country as the Hispanic and Asian populations become even more powerful over 2012.

62% of the white vote would of won 400+ electoral votes in 1980 but lose in 2012.

Republicans need Florida, NC, Virginia Nevada, Co, Bush in 2000 could never win Florida today and you can include Co and Nevada with that...Whites have seen a 10% shift in votes in Nev.

 

[JakeStarkey]

HRC can be fought by Kasich, maybe Walker or Bush. Bush won't get the nomination now because of his mouth, and Walker is vulnerable.

Of all the competitive states, Dems only need to win six to take back the Senate. Do some research and do the math.

If the GOP wants to keep the Senate and have a chance for the WH, it must reach out more to women and minorities. The right wing whites will vote GOP if they wish to influence the election.

 

[S.J.]

I think you're reading into the 2014 midterms too heavily. 2010 wasn't a precedent, 2014 won't be either.

If 2010 wasn't a precedent why did it happen again in 2014?

 

[william the wie]

We will see. The elected Asian governors are 2 to 1 R and Hispanic governors are trending that way.

 

[Nyvin]

I think you're reading into the 2014 midterms too heavily. 2010 wasn't a precedent, 2014 won't be either.

If 2010 wasn't a precedent why did it happen again in 2014?

So are we talking about 2016 here or 2018?

2010's results had little resemblance to 2012. I really don't think 2014 will have much resemblance to 2016.

 

[Nyvin]

We will see. The elected Asian governors are 2 to 1 R and Hispanic governors are trending that way.

LOL....what could you possibly be trying to get out of that???

 

[JoshuaZ]

Clinton strikes me as a tactically smart/strategically stupid move. Given the way Obama has built up the Rs at the State and congressional levels the threat to the Democrats as a party is that they will be gerrymandered into a mostly regional party with an ever more radical base. Hillary as president will aid this goal.

Two questions. First how does Hillary as President aid this goal? Second what probability do you assign to Clinton winning the general by 5 or fewer electoral votes?

 

[william the wie]

Hilary being Hillary. 60% minimum, other factors could intervene but almost none of them are favorable to her. Her state by state unfavorables while not huge are likely to grow due the actions of other Democrats at the state, local and federal level. The Ds in general are on a sugar high and are pulling stupid stunts much like the Bush Administration when they convinced themselves that a permanent R majority was in hand and for the same reason.

 

[JoshuaZ]

Hilary being Hillary. 60% minimum, other factors could intervene but almost none of them are favorable to her. Her state by state unfavorables while not huge are likely to grow due the actions of other Democrats at the state, local and federal level. The Ds in general are on a sugar high and are pulling stupid stunts much like the Bush Administration when they convinced themselves that a permanent R majority was in hand and for the same reason.

So to be clear, it would be fair to say that you are strongly confident that Hillary will either just barely win or just barely lose, yes? What probability do you assign that Hillary will get between 265 and 275 electoral votes? 75%? 80%? More?

 

[william the wie]

With winner take all predominating: zero.

 

[JoshuaZ]

With winner take all predominating: zero.

In that case, I'm very confused by your top post which says "Hillary by 272" or dou ymean she's going to win by a difference of at least 272 electoral votes?

 

[Nyvin]

This guy mostly just talks out of his you-know-where without anything at all to support it. I think I remember him saying last year something about China exports blah blah world economy will collapse early 2015 blah blah.

 

[william the wie]

As in we had the worst first qtr since the meltdown, world trade and its multiplier have decreased and US labor force participation rates are at or near the lowest levels on record.

China, Greece, the Ukraine and Portugal have all declared themselves to be in partial or total collapse. In China's case some provinces are in collapse while others are not, politely worded but stated by the PBOC. Your opinion in other words is counter-factual and in headlines if you have followed the economic news are you even remotely sober?