Here's Warren Buffett admitting peak oil

Discussion in 'Energy' started by JiggsCasey, Sep 10, 2011.

  1. JiggsCasey
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    JiggsCasey VIP Member

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    starting at 1:00 mark...

    [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNhkWjy9D-Q&NR=1]Warren Buffet - talk about oil depletion on CNBC. - YouTube[/ame]

    "most fields are depleting at a pretty good rate ... who knows what the equilibrium price will be."

    Add Buffett to countless economists, geologists and consultants who have admitted the condition so many here continue to deny is happening.
     
  2. RGR
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    RGR VIP Member

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    And David White, United States Geological Survey (in other words, someone who knows more about oil than Warren ever has) announcing the peak of world oil production...back in 1919..... was different how?

    People have been playing this card for so long now that even the religion based on it has forgotten it is doing nothing but parroting its betters nearly a century ago.

    You must fit right in with this gang of Keystone Cop Resource Experts parrots, eh Jiggsy?

    :razz::razz:
     
  3. Mr. H.
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    Mr. H. Diamond Member

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    "most fields are depleting at a pretty good rate ... who knows what the equilibrium price will be."

    That's it? I'm underimpressed to say the least. I'd expect better from an undergrad geology student.
     
  4. sparky
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    sparky VIP Member

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  5. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    Peak oil effects pricing on a day to day schedule?

    Not as much as pique oil pricing of the speculators does.
     
  6. sparky
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    sparky VIP Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  7. RGR
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    I'd expect better from the village parrot.
     
  8. RGR
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    RGR VIP Member

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    It didn't the last couple of times it happened, don't know why it would now.
     
  9. Dragon
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    Dragon Senior Member

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    Or, we could go with M. King Hubbert, who actually developed the idea of peak oil long after David White's career was over (which means any attribution of such a claim to White is at best misleading and at worst a flat lie, rather like attributing Newton's gravitational model to Aristotle).

    Peak oil has to be understood in terms of its mechanics for the idea to be evaluated. Failure to do this, regardless of one's take on the idea, is a proclamation from ignorance. The mechanics are that production of oil (or any other nonrenewable resource) peaks from any one source when half the resource has been extracted from that source. By "source" I mean any single oil field, for example. Spot-source peaks like this are an old, well-established fact. Regional and global peaks are an extrapolation from this old, well-established fact: when half the oil has been extracted from a region, that region's overall production will peak and then decline.

    On this basis, Hubbert projected the peak of oil production in the U.S. from the lower 48 states to peak in the early 1970s. He was slightly off; the actual peak was in 1970. Oil production in the U.S. has trended down ever since, and that was what allowed the OPEC oil embargo to be effective in 1973. Prior to reaching our peak, the U.S. was a net oil exporter, not importer, and immune to any embargo (in fact, we imposed one on Japan ourselves in 1941, leading to Pearl Harbor).

    What can happen regionally can also happen globally, again by extrapolation. It's hard to fix exactly when the peak will be reached, as this depends on a number of unpredictable factors including the behavior of the global economy (which impacts demand for oil) and oil politics. However, the general understanding among geologists is that we are there or slightly past it.

    What's the effect of peak oil? There again it's important to understand the mechanics. Some doomsayers paint pictures of sudden global economic collapse, inability to grow food, etc. etc. and that's unrealistic (which means arguments against "peak oil doomsaying" from the right are straw-man arguments since only a few nut jobs are doom-sayers). The real effects are less drastic, although still dire: upward trending of oil prices that can never be significantly reduced, and shortages, mild to begin with but growing more severe over time.

    Is that not precisely what we see happening?
     
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  10. RGR
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    The timing of the claims is not in dispute. You take offense that others were declaring that the US would peak in oil production (some even that we would run out!) long before Hubbert did?

    To understand the mechanics, you must define the concept. Peakers define the symbol of their religion in many ways, some confuse it with EROEI, others pretend that plateaus are the expected result rather than an actual peak, some take oil and pretend it is not oil, that they can skip counting it for fear of being embarassed by past claims. Certainly much of that is from ignorance, so I would agree with you that most peakers don't understand what is going on very well.

    You are incorrect. This is nothing more than standard peaker propaganda. Please try and not imitate our village idiot, one is enough.

    You would be wrong about this as well. Hook, himself a peaker, published within just the past two years or so, the point at which oil production peaked ranged from perhaps 20% of utilized resources to 80%. You perhaps have an error bar on your statement as large as his?

    You are a revisionist. Contemporarnous to global oil peaking in 2005, this is what was expected.

    BLUE: Feature Archive - Special: Here comes the nutcracker - Peak oil in a nutshell, by Jan Lundberg

    Walmart trucks were supposed to stop running within days. Got any Walmarts in your neck of the woods? Seen any of their trucks parked alongside the road?

    Please try and check your religious beliefs at the door, we've got one missionary to the gullible stopping in occasionally and trying to round up anyone brain dead enough to fall for his garbage, your better grammar and even worse recital of dogma is no more convincing.
     

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