Has Anybody Been Looking at Their Portfolio Statements?

[PoliticalChic]

I should have just chucked them into the shredder. How many years will it take for your portfolio to go back to pre-economic meltdown levels?

Haven't sold any stocks or funds, but haven't bought any either. I imagine there could be some real bargains out there. Rick Edelman says stay in the market because it will come back.

 

[Paulie]

Some of us saw the writing on the wall and moved out of equities.

I'm heavy in metals and cash right now.

 

[PoliticalChic]

Some of us saw the writing on the wall and moved out of equities.

I'm heavy in metals and cash right now.

And you couldn't warn the rest of us??? LOL!

 

[Paulie]

And you couldn't warn the rest of us??? LOL!

You joined in October of this year. I've been warning people for over a year now on here, but no one listens.

 

[PoliticalChic]

You joined in October of this year. I've been warning people for over a year now on here, but no one listens.

That's true. I'll be listening to you now, albeit a bit late.

 

[Paulie]

That's true. I'll be listening to you now, albeit a bit late.

Please, don't listen to ME when it comes to your investments. I only have opinions based on the economic policies I lend credence to.

If you want to follow the economic school of thought that I follow, visit Ludwig von Mises Institute - Homepage

Then read G. Edward Griffin's book "The Creature from Jekyll Island".

 

[Skull Pilot]

Some of us saw the writing on the wall and moved out of equities.

I'm heavy in metals and cash right now.

I'm into heavy metal. Just bought all the old Metallica vinyl I could get me hands on.

Actually, I moved into metals and some bonds in my retirement accounts.

But current contributions are all buying equities mostly in sector funds like medical equipment and services, and energy and a smattering of different growth and value funds

 

[gonegolfin]

I should have just chucked them into the shredder. How many years will it take for your portfolio to go back to pre-economic meltdown levels?

Haven't sold any stocks or funds, but haven't bought any either. I imagine there could be some real bargains out there. Rick Edelman says stay in the market because it will come back.

And if you would have been following Edelman's advice throughout, you would have taken big losses to this point.

Among the portfolios that I manage, I had them all out of domestic equities by February of this year (many much earlier), with a small amount of specific foreign investments being the only equity exposure (these have been hit as well).

Currently sitting on high percentages of US Dollar and Foreign Cash and physical precious metals (not paper).

Brian

 

[xsited1]

I should have just chucked them into the shredder. How many years will it take for your portfolio to go back to pre-economic meltdown levels?

Haven't sold any stocks or funds, but haven't bought any either. I imagine there could be some real bargains out there. Rick Edelman says stay in the market because it will come back.

Here's what you do (yes, this is probably too simplistic). If the Democrats are in control of Congress, put your money in safe investments like bonds. If the Republicans are in control of Congress, put your money in stocks. If it's a statistical tie, mix it up.

Therefore, when the Democrats took control of Congress in 2007, you should have put your money in bonds. When the Republicans took control of Congress in 1995, you should have put your money in stocks.

 

[editec]

I should have just chucked them into the shredder. How many years will it take for your portfolio to go back to pre-economic meltdown levels?

Haven't sold any stocks or funds, but haven't bought any either. I imagine there could be some real bargains out there. Rick Edelman says stay in the market because it will come back.

I was precient enough to get sick and go broke a long time ago.

I now watch the stockmarket with the same fascination most people devote to cheering on ballball teams.

Had I any money to invest today, I'd still be looking at tech stocks with strong cash positions.

This depression isn't going to go away in the next year or even two, I think.

In fact, I expect it's going to get worse.

I don't think it's really hit the rest of emerging markets world as hard as it's going to hit them eventually.

American consumers aren't going to prop up China like we once did, for example.

It may be a white Christmas this year but it will not be a green one.

 

[PoliticalChic]

And if you would have been following Edelman's advice throughout, you would have taken big losses to this point.

Among the portfolios that I manage, I had them all out of domestic equities by February of this year (many much earlier), with a small amount of specific foreign investments being the only equity exposure (these have been hit as well).

Currently sitting on high percentages of US Dollar and Foreign Cash and physical precious metals (not paper).

Brian

Are you a professional portfolio manager of you just talking about your personal portfolio?

I am not a market timer because I don't have a background in this area. What can folks do now to mitigate any further losses?

 

[PoliticalChic]

I was precient enough to get sick and go broke a long time ago.

I now watch the stockmarket with the same fascination most people devote to cheering on ballball teams.

Had I any money to invest today, I'd still be looking at tech stocks with strong cash positions.

This depression isn't going to go away in the next year or even two, I think.

In fact, I expect it's going to get worse.

I don't think it's really hit the rest of emerging markets world as hard as it's going to hit them eventually.

American consumers aren't going to prop up China like we once did, for example.

It may be a white Christmas this year but it will not be a green one.

Sadly, you are right about this. Time for some homemade presents this year. This is never a bad idea whatever the economic conditions.

 

[tigerbob]

Are you a professional portfolio manager of you just talking about your personal portfolio?

I am not a market timer because I don't have a background in this area. What can folks do now to mitigate any further losses?

If you think the market will continue to go down, sell. If not, hold onto them or buy. Simplistic I know, but that's about what it comes down to.

 

[PoliticalChic]

If you think the market will continue to go down, sell. If not, hold onto them or buy. Simplistic I know, but that's about what it comes down to.

Right now my losses are just on paper so you're saying I should take a "real" loss?

 

[tigerbob]

Right now my losses are just on paper so you're saying I should take a "real" loss?

No, I think if you've weathered the storm this long then you should stay the course. But that's only my opinion.

 

[Paulie]

Right now my losses are just on paper so you're saying I should take a "real" loss?

The question is, has the Fed managed to reflate enough that there will be another boom, assuming the banks ever release their reserves, or have we reached the end of that tactic's viability.

Brian, what's your prediction if you have one?

 

[gonegolfin]

Are you a professional portfolio manager of you just talking about your personal portfolio?

I am not a market timer because I don't have a background in this area. What can folks do now to mitigate any further losses?

I am not a "professional" manager, but I do manage a handful of portfolios for friends and family.

I continue to recommend what I have been recommending for some time now. Keep a stockpile of dry powder in both USD and Foreign Cash. Own precious metals (the physical variety). GoldMoney.com is a steal right now because you can buy at the paper price and own physical metal (professionally stored for you). I continue to recommend no domestic equity exposure, except for some modest investments in energy and precious metals mining. I have been dabbling in some of the Canadian Energy Trusts and selected mining companies.

You can search my posts on this forum to see my opinions.

Brian

 

[Andrew2382]

From my understanding Gold is a very bad buy atm.

Mostly because people are cashing in their hedge funds which is tens of millions or hundreds, and these companies are dumping gold on the market to get the money

 

[gonegolfin]

The question is, has the Fed managed to reflate enough that there will be another boom, assuming the banks ever release their reserves, or have we reached the end of that tactic's viability.

Brian, what's your prediction if you have one?

I predict that if we do not see evidence that the banks commence lending, we are going to see a nasty depression.

As for whether the juiced monetary base will translate to substantial increases in the money supply, I continue to look at the numbers in search of hard evidence before making moves. But thus far, the Fed has not released the plug in that it has recently increased the interest rate it pays on both required reserves and excess reserves. Thus, there is less incentive to lend.

Fed changes interest rates paid on reserves - Ron Paul Forums

Brian

 

[gonegolfin]

From my understanding Gold is a very bad buy atm.

Mostly because people are cashing in their hedge funds which is tens of millions or hundreds, and these companies are dumping gold on the market to get the money

Gold is not being dumped. Paper was being dumped. But now the Open Interest is at much lower levels.

The physical price of Gold and Silver is considerably higher than what the paper markets say they are. This is because the physical metal has been difficult to come by in the retail market. Hence the premiums. The metal that is available is being made available for COMEX and LBME bars, used in industrial use. It will be interesting to see if there is a run on these physical bars in December at the COMEX. While this is anecdotal evidence, I do know some fund managers that for the first time will be taking physical delivery (as they also believe there is a shortage). We have already seen evidence of this in some foreign futures exchanges.

You should also note that Gold has recently made all-time highs in several significant currencies. Just not the US Dollar. Yet.

Brian