Harsher Winters Not Inconsistent with Global Warming

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Matthew, Dec 21, 2010.

  1. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    Harsher Winters Not Inconsistent with Global Warming
    Global warming linked to harsh winters
    Irishtimes.com, Dec. 20, 2010

    The cold spell Ireland and the rest of northern Europe has been experiencing may, paradoxically, be the result of global warming, rather than evidence it is not happening, according to the most recent scientific research.

    The Journal of Geophysical Research suggested a link between diminishing levels of sea ice in the Arctic and an increased probability of harsh winters across Europe, saying these “do not conflict the global warming picture, but rather supplement it”.

    As HSBC Global Research noted in its latest report, If the World is Warming, Why is it so Cold?, “climate change involves profound disruptions in global average temperatures. But as individuals we only experience local weather.” And “coming on the back of the unusual cold winters of 2009-2010, this cold spell has caused some commentary that global warming is over”. The explanation they offer is that the “warming trend is not uniform, and northern Europe has shown considerable cooling this winter”.

    Despite the cold spell here, “almost all the areas of the world have shown considerable warming . . .”

    According to the British Met Office, “although La NiƱa has stabilised, it is still expected to affect global temperature through the coming year. This effect is small compared to the total accrued global warming to date, but it does mean that 2011 is unlikely to be a record year.”

    Last week, the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Nasa) published the global temperature figures for January to November 2010, showing that this 11-month period has been the warmest since instrumental records began 131 years ago.

    “High temperatures in 2010 have also been matched by a series of extreme weather events across the world, including droughts and floods in China, India, Pakistan, Russia, and the US,” the HSBC report noted. “But are these driven by man-made global warming?
    “Nasa’s James Hansen is clear: ‘Would these events have happened if atmospheric carbon dioxide had remained at its pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million?’ His answer is ‘almost certainly not’.”

    Essentially, the sequence of events this year matches the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of “more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming”, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.

    Global warming linked to harsh winters - The Irish Times - Mon, Dec 20, 2010

    The question to my friends is why wouldn't a ice free area of ocean that normally is covered by ice not effect the Atmosphere in ways that could cause more blocking over the Atlantic, which case would cause this? For one lets compare a year like 1997 that has a cool MDR and warm subtropical area north of 20-30 north. First of all the "heat/warm sst's" promotes rising air and low pressure...So you have your hurricanes not developing with this, but on the other hand one of the factors that make la nina years so able to develop tropical cyclones is the warm mdr or tropical area between Africa and the caribbean islands south of 20 north...With cooler sst's to the north, which promotes sinking air within those area's, which is high pressure. This is why years like 1996, 1999, 2004, 2008 where quite active...Yes last year had a huge trough over the western Atlantic, which moved all the cyclones out to sea, but the power of the cyclones where more in terms of 1999. So we see here how surface temperatures can effect the Atmospheric circulations. So why do you disagree with a ice free Hudson bay causing possible climate changes on europe and eastern US.

    Lets say a super volcano went off under the arctic ocean tomorrow and melting all the fucking ice...You bet your ass that there would be huge climate and weather changes.
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2010
  2. Baruch Menachem
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    Baruch Menachem '

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    When the Nile Freezes solid all the way to Lake Victoria, we will be told that, yes, this is evidence of global warming.
     
  3. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    It's Warmer: therefore, manmade global warming
    It's Colder: therefore, manmade global warming

    "This new learning amazes me, Brother Maynard!"
     
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  4. uscitizen
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    uscitizen Senior Member

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    Umm it is a global thing, ot a local thing. Hence the Name Global warming.
    Also it is not a one year trend but a bit longer view than that.
     
  5. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    The sea ice sure as hell wouldn't remain stable within the bottom 3 lowest levels in recorded history year after year if we where heading into a ice age. It would be INCREASING. The land ice would be INCREASING and glaciers would advance all over the world...What do we find? Yes in some area's because of increased moisture caused by possibly a warmer world they could be very well be growing some, but based on most scientist and governments show that the ice is receding or retreating. In which you would expect coming out of a little ice age...Yes we're coming out of one. So I doubt we're falling back into one or moving into one.

    What this states is because of unnormally ice free area's maybe causing the weather pattern to shift and cause more blocking, which will cause more of the cold air to move southward into Europe and the Eastern US. Lets think about ENSO or our el nino and la nina patterns that cause shifts in the weather patterns and jet streams...El nino causes a stronger subtropical jet over the southern US and huge weather changes over the globe, but La nina causes more rainfall over the pacific northwest. As you can see that difference in ocean temperature can have a huge effect on climate. It can have effect on tropical cyclone develop with more favorable upper levels over the Atlantic in La nina, but more favorable for the eastern pacific in El nino years. Differences in surface temperatures can have a huge effect on the weather pattern.

    Look, I'm not one of those people that believe we're going to get 4-5c of warming in 90 years, I think it is insane. But I'm one that will admit that if you don't have ice over a large part of real state then you have changes in the environment that may cause changes in the weather pattern.
     
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  6. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    The enso can effect weather patterns over the whole earth, so why couldn't a large area of ice free ocean not have a effect over part of it?:confused:
     
  7. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    But Matthew the sea ice is increasing. The lowest "ever recorded" was 2007. Since then the ice has been growing. The Antarctic is 3 orders of magnitude above "normal".
     
  8. RetiredGySgt
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    RetiredGySgt Platinum Member

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    Ya in this case global warming is supposed to be happening based on 30 years of data. We get it really we do.
     
  9. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    Natural or man made the earth has warmed in the last 250 years. The earth was colder during the little ice age. So since it is a global warming trend since then then wouldn't it be called global warming.
     
  10. California Girl
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    California Girl BANNED

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    Hence, intelligent people refer to 'climate change'.
     

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