Guy with gun in Britain, which British gun law stopped a mass public shooting?

[2aguy]

We have another shooting in gun free Britain.....a house was targeted.

Tell us.....which British gun control law kept this Brit. with an illegal gun from walking into a church, a mall, a school and shooting a bunch of people?

The British police have stated that they can't stop the increasing flow of illegal guns into the country......the young males of Britain are knifing each other to death.......and illegal immigrants with values that are hostile to British culture are taking over large parts of the country.......

So....tell us how this isn't going to go badly for them...

Gunman opens fire on house as neighbours sleep

 

[Moonglow]

Probably several shootings were avoided but you'd never know unless you are psychic.

 

[Vagabond63]

We have another shooting in gun free Britain.....a house was targeted.

Tell us.....which British gun control law kept this Brit. with an illegal gun from walking into a church, a mall, a school and shooting a bunch of people?

The British police have stated that they can't stop the increasing flow of illegal guns into the country......the young males of Britain are knifing each other to death.......and illegal immigrants with values that are hostile to British culture are taking over large parts of the country.......

So....tell us how this isn't going to go badly for them...

Gunman opens fire on house as neighbours sleep

Another stupid OP from our favourite NRA schill.

To answer his question (again) it's the 1997 Firearms Act. He displays his ignorance of the UK time, after time, after time. For example, he keeps saying we are "gun free". Obviously he's never read the firearms act which banned specific weapons, not all firearms. There are thousands of rifles, shotguns and yes, hand guns in private LEGAL ownership over here.

Oh, the broader answer to his question is that our criminals use guns to intimidate rivals or to protect themselves from rivals. People who shoot up shopping centres, churches, schools, etc. are usually "law abiding" citizens who for whatever reason, go on a killing spree. The 1997 Firearms act makes it incredibly difficult, if not impossible for such individuals to obtain guns to carry out their plans. Just compare mass shooting statistics between the UK and the USA.

 

[2aguy]

We have another shooting in gun free Britain.....a house was targeted.

Tell us.....which British gun control law kept this Brit. with an illegal gun from walking into a church, a mall, a school and shooting a bunch of people?

The British police have stated that they can't stop the increasing flow of illegal guns into the country......the young males of Britain are knifing each other to death.......and illegal immigrants with values that are hostile to British culture are taking over large parts of the country.......

So....tell us how this isn't going to go badly for them...

Gunman opens fire on house as neighbours sleep

Another stupid OP from our favourite NRA schill.

To answer his question (again) it's the 1997 Firearms Act. He displays his ignorance of the UK time, after time, after time. For example, he keeps saying we are "gun free". Obviously he's never read the firearms act which banned specific weapons, not all firearms. There are thousands of rifles, shotguns and yes, hand guns in private LEGAL ownership over here.

Oh, the broader answer to his question is that our criminals use guns to intimidate rivals or to protect themselves from rivals. People who shoot up shopping centres, churches, schools, etc. are usually "law abiding" citizens who for whatever reason, go on a killing spree. The 1997 Firearms act makes it incredibly difficult, if not impossible for such individuals to obtain guns to carry out their plans. Just compare mass shooting statistics between the UK and the USA.

You have had at least 4 planned shootings, stopped through dumb luck.......dumb luck doesn't show your gun control laws are working...that is an escalation, considering Britain averaged one mass public shooting every 10 years........

Teenage boys planned to 'kill everyone' at Yorkshire school in Columbine-style gun and bomb massacre, court hears

Two teenage boys planned to “kill everyone” at their Yorkshireschool in a Columbine-style massacre using bombs and guns, a court has heard.

---------------------------



.4/6/18

Doctor found with stash of guns and NHS hitlist jailed

A former doctor has been sentenced to 12 years in prison for stockpiling guns with the intent to endanger life.

Martin Watt was found with three submachine guns, two pistols and 1,500 live cartridges at a property in Cumbernauld, Scotland, last year.

The 62-year-old had lost his job at Monklands hospital in North Lanarkshire in 2012 after disciplinary hearings. His marriage broke down around the same time, the high court in Glasgow was told.

Watt had compiled a list of names and addresses of some colleagues involved in the disciplinary process, which the judge, Valerie Stacey, said Watt had referred to as an assassination list.
=======



Here is the updat, the original is below..

Yep.....this 19 year old got bombs and a glock 19 and 94 rounds of 9mm ammo on the dark web in Britain in order to murder people at the University he used to attend..........

I guess their gun control laws stopped him...right? Or was it pure, dumb luck.....?


-------------

British teen sentenced to life for planned school attack

Despite some of the tightest gun control on the planet, a British man was able to acquire a handgun, extended mags and explosives as part of a plot to attack his former school.

Liam Lyburd, 19, of Newcastle upon Tyne, was sentenced to life imprisonment this week on eight charges of possessing weapons with intent to endanger life.

As noted by the BBC, Lyburd gathered a cache that included a Glock 19, three 33-round magazines, 94 hollow-point bullets, CS gas, five pipe bombs and two other improvised explosive devices despite the country’s long history of civilian arms control.

According to court documents, Lyburd planned to use the weapons in an attack on Newcastle College, from which he had been expelled two years prior for poor attendance. He was arrested last November after two Northumbria Police constables visited him at his home on a tip from an individual who encountered threats and disturbing pictures posted by Lyburd online.

Despite a defense that portrayed the reclusive man as living in a fantasy world, Lyburd was found guilty in July.

The internet-savvy teen obtained the Glock and other items through Evolution Marketplace, a successor to the Silk Road, a long-time “dark web” site in which users could buy and sell everything from illegal narcotics to munitions using Bitcoin cryptocurrency.

In court, Lyburd testified that buying the Glock was so easy it was “like buying a bar of chocolate.”

He obtained funds for his purchases through a complex extortion scheme in which he used online malware to infect computers, which he in turn held for ransom from their owners.

====Teenage boy 'took shotgun to school after being bullied for being fat'


15-year-old boy arrested for taking shotgun and ammunition into school did it because he was being bullied for being too fat, fellow pupils said.

=======

 

[Vagabond63]

You have had at least 4 planned shootings, stopped through dumb luck.......dumb luck doesn't show your gun control laws are working...that is an escalation, considering Britain averaged one mass public shooting every 10 years.

Oh please, not this cut and paste BS again. Citing four possible mass shootings since 2015, in fact demonstrates that the 1997 Firearms Act (just in case you forgot which law prevented armed nutcases shooting up shopping centres, churches, schools, etc) is doing it's job. Without gun control we would have had four attrocities, all the individuals involved were law abiding members of the community; easy access to guns would have made it easy to commit the massacres they planned. Mass shootings in the UK since 1997= 2, mass shootings in USA since 1997, too many to mention.
List of mass shootings in the United States - Wikipedia
List of mass shootings in the United States - Wikipedia
List of mass shootings in the United States - Wikipedia

Oh, between 2015 and 2017, the time period where the above cited possible mass shooting could have occurred, the USA has had 43 mass shootings, the UK? ZERO.

List of mass shootings in the United States - Wikipedia
List of mass shootings in the United States - Wikipedia
List of mass shootings in the United States - Wikipedia

Our gun control laws work, thanks.

 

[Andylusion]

Probably several shootings were avoided but you'd never know unless you are psychic.

Probably several hundred shootings in the US, were avoided by armed citizens able to defend themselves with guns.... but you'd never known unless you are psychic.

 

[Vagabond63]

Probably several shootings were avoided but you'd never know unless you are psychic.

Probably several hundred shootings in the US, were avoided by armed citizens able to defend themselves with guns.... but you'd never known unless you are psychic.

...or had a proper system of recording such incidents as part of an all encompassing gun control regimen.

 

[Andylusion]

Probably several shootings were avoided but you'd never know unless you are psychic.

Probably several hundred shootings in the US, were avoided by armed citizens able to defend themselves with guns.... but you'd never known unless you are psychic.

...or had a proper system of recording such incidents as part of an all encompassing gun control regimen.

Record what? Years ago, I had a guy try and force me off the road in my car at night. I pulled my 9mm and he fled.

Why would that possible assault or attack, be recorded, when it never happened?

How would record a "nothing" that happened? In fact, law abiding people are less likely to report something that happened, since our laws are geared towards criminalizing the law abiding people. Meaning, I could report what I did, and the officer could arrest me for brandishing.

Years ago, there was Navy officer that finished his service, and was living in New York. He ended up mugged twice. He bought a guy, and during the 3rd mugging, he shot the guy. He ended up being charged with owning an unregistered weapon in New York.

When you punish the good people, and protect the criminals, don't be surprised when these things are not reported.

 

[2aguy]

You have had at least 4 planned shootings, stopped through dumb luck.......dumb luck doesn't show your gun control laws are working...that is an escalation, considering Britain averaged one mass public shooting every 10 years.

Oh please, not this cut and paste BS again. Citing four possible mass shootings since 2015, in fact demonstrates that the 1997 Firearms Act (just in case you forgot which law prevented armed nutcases shooting up shopping centres, churches, schools, etc) is doing it's job. Without gun control we would have had four attrocities, all the individuals involved were law abiding members of the community; easy access to guns would have made it easy to commit the massacres they planned. Mass shootings in the UK since 1997= 2, mass shootings in USA since 1997, too many to mention.
List of mass shootings in the United States - Wikipedia
List of mass shootings in the United States - Wikipedia
List of mass shootings in the United States - Wikipedia

Oh, between 2015 and 2017, the time period where the above cited possible mass shooting could have occurred, the USA has had 43 mass shootings, the UK? ZERO.

List of mass shootings in the United States - Wikipedia
List of mass shootings in the United States - Wikipedia
List of mass shootings in the United States - Wikipedia

Our gun control laws work, thanks.

The British police state they can't stop the flood of illegal guns into Britain.....your young males are stabbing each other to death right now......how long before they start shooting each other? We had this issue in the mid 1960s when the gangs went from knives to guns.....it didn't end till we went back to allowing Americans to carry guns....and started actually locking up violent criminals.

Your gun control laws only work for law abiding people......those intent on murder are not going to be stopped.

 

[2aguy]

Probably several shootings were avoided but you'd never know unless you are psychic.

Probably several hundred shootings in the US, were avoided by armed citizens able to defend themselves with guns.... but you'd never known unless you are psychic.

...or had a proper system of recording such incidents as part of an all encompassing gun control regimen.

We already have that.......

Over the last 26 years, we went from 200 million guns in private hands in the 1990s and 4.7 million people carrying guns for self defense in 1997...to close to 400-600 million guns in private hands and over 17.25 million people carrying guns for self defense in 2018...guess what happened...


-- gun murder down 49%

--gun crime down 75%

--violent crime down 72%

Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49% lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation’s population grew. The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75% lower in 2011 than in 1993. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall (with or without a firearm) also is down markedly (72%) over two decades.

 

[Vagabond63]

Record what? Years ago, I had a guy try and force me off the road in my car at night. I pulled my 9mm and he fled.

Did he? Or was he either a bad driver or just drunk? Did your fear and paranoia create a situation that didn't exist in the first place and you just turned to your 9mm "crutch" for reassurance? That's the problem with allowing inexperienced/untrained/panicky people to own guns, here's an example from the USA Man in 'stand your ground' killing was turning away when shot

 

[Vagabond63]

Probably several shootings were avoided but you'd never know unless you are psychic.

Probably several hundred shootings in the US, were avoided by armed citizens able to defend themselves with guns.... but you'd never known unless you are psychic.

...or had a proper system of recording such incidents as part of an all encompassing gun control regimen.

We already have that.......

Over the last 26 years, we went from 200 million guns in private hands in the 1990s and 4.7 million people carrying guns for self defense in 1997...to close to 400-600 million guns in private hands and over 17.25 million people carrying guns for self defense in 2018...guess what happened...


-- gun murder down 49%

--gun crime down 75%

--violent crime down 72%

Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49% lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation’s population grew. The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75% lower in 2011 than in 1993. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall (with or without a firearm) also is down markedly (72%) over two decades.

Oh, please. Even your own sources state that there is no correlation between gun ownership and decline in gun/violent crime. The decrease is as much attributable to social programs of the time, changes in demographics, and a burgeoning economy.

If you actally look at your argument, you are saying that roughly 2-4% of America's population is responsible for these declines in gun voilence, yeah, right.

 

[2aguy]

Record what? Years ago, I had a guy try and force me off the road in my car at night. I pulled my 9mm and he fled.

Did he? Or was he either a bad driver or just drunk? Did your fear and paranoia create a situation that didn't exist in the first place and you just turned to your 9mm "crutch" for reassurance? That's the problem with allowing inexperienced/untrained/panicky people to own guns, here's an example from the USA Man in 'stand your ground' killing was turning away when shot

Americans use their guns 1.1 million times a year to stop rapes, robberies and murders......and as more Americans own and carry guns, our gun murder, crime and violent crime rate have gone down, blowing a hole in your theory about normal people and guns...

Over the last 26 years, we went from 200 million guns in private hands in the 1990s and 4.7 million people carrying guns for self defense in 1997...to close to 400-600 million guns in private hands and over 17.25 million people carrying guns for self defense in 2018...guess what happened...


-- gun murder down 49%

--gun crime down 75%

--violent crime down 72%

Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49% lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation’s population grew. The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75% lower in 2011 than in 1993. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall (with or without a firearm) also is down markedly (72%) over two decades.

 

[2aguy]

Record what? Years ago, I had a guy try and force me off the road in my car at night. I pulled my 9mm and he fled.

Did he? Or was he either a bad driver or just drunk? Did your fear and paranoia create a situation that didn't exist in the first place and you just turned to your 9mm "crutch" for reassurance? That's the problem with allowing inexperienced/untrained/panicky people to own guns, here's an example from the USA Man in 'stand your ground' killing was turning away when shot

Also.....in the worst case situation, a mass public shooter.....armed normal people have a success rate of 94% at either stopping the killer, or reducing the number of killed and injured.....these are not police or military, but normal people who have their legal guns with them.....blowing another hole in your lack of informed opinion on gun ownership and self defense....

Armed Citizens Are Successful 94% Of The Time At Active Shooter Events [FBI]

Of all the active shooter events there were 33 at which an armed citizen was present. Of those, Armed Citizens were successful at stopping the Active shooter 75.8% of the time (25 incidents) and were successful in reducing the loss of life in an additional 18.2% (6) of incidents. In only 2 of the 33 incidents (6.1%) was the Armed Citizen(s) not helpful in any way in stopping the active shooter or reducing the loss of life.

Thus the headline of our report that Armed Citizens Are Successful 94% Of The Time At Active Shooter Events.


In the 2 incidents at which the armed citizen “failed” to stop or slow the active shooter, one is the previously mentioned incident with hunters. The other is an incident in which the CCWer was shot in the back in a Las Vegas Walmart when he failed to identify that there were 2 Active Shooters involved in the attack. He neglected to identify the one that shot him in the back while he was trying to ambush the other perpetrator.

We also decided to look at the breakdown of events that took place in gun free zones and the relative death toll from events in gun free zones vs non-gun-free zones.

Of the 283 incidents in our data pool, we were unable to identify if the event took place in a gun-free zone in a large number (41%) of the events. Most of the events took place at a business, church, home, or other places at which as a rule of law it is not a gun free zone but potentially could have been declared one by the property owner. Without any information in the FBI study or any indication one way or the other from the news reports, we have indicated that event with a question mark.

If you look at all of the Active Shooter events (pie chart on the top) you see that for those which we have the information, almost twice as many took place in gun free zones than not; but realistically the vast majority of those for which we have no information (indicated as ?) are probably NOT gun free zones.

If you isolate just the events at which 8 or more people were killed the data paints a different picture (pie chart on the bottom). In these incidents, 77.8% took place in a gun-free zone suggesting that gun free zones lead to a higher death rate vs active shooter events in general

=====

One of the final metrics we thought was important to consider is the potential tendency for armed citizens to injure or kill innocent people in their attempt to “save the day.” A common point in political discussions is to point out the lack of training of most armed citizens and the decrease in safety inherent in their presence during violent encounters.

As you can see below, however, at the 33 incidents at which Armed Citizens were present, there were zero situations at which the Armed Citizen injured or killed an innocent person. It never happened.

 

[2aguy]

Probably several shootings were avoided but you'd never know unless you are psychic.

Probably several hundred shootings in the US, were avoided by armed citizens able to defend themselves with guns.... but you'd never known unless you are psychic.

...or had a proper system of recording such incidents as part of an all encompassing gun control regimen.

We already have that.......

Over the last 26 years, we went from 200 million guns in private hands in the 1990s and 4.7 million people carrying guns for self defense in 1997...to close to 400-600 million guns in private hands and over 17.25 million people carrying guns for self defense in 2018...guess what happened...


-- gun murder down 49%

--gun crime down 75%

--violent crime down 72%

Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49% lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation’s population grew. The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75% lower in 2011 than in 1993. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall (with or without a firearm) also is down markedly (72%) over two decades.

Oh, please. Even your own sources state that there is no correlation between gun ownership and decline in gun/violent crime. The decrease is as much attributable to social programs of the time, changes in demographics, and a burgeoning economy.

If you actally look at your argument, you are saying that roughly 2-4% of America's population is responsible for these declines in gun voilence, yeah, right.

What are you talking about...here is actual research on the topic....showing you don't know what you are talking about....

http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Bartley-Cohen-Economic-Inquiry-1998.pdf


The Effect of Concealed Weapons Laws: An Extreme Bound Analysis by William Alan Bartley and Mark A Cohen, published in Economic Inquiry, April 1998 (Copy available here)

.....we find strong support for the hypothesis that the right-to-carry laws are associated with a decrease in the trend in violent crime rates.....

Paper........CCW does not increase police deaths...

http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Mustard-JLE-Polic-Deaths-Gun-Control.pdf

This paper uses state-level data from 1984–96 to examine how right-to-carry laws and waiting periods affect the felonious deaths of police. Some people oppose concealed weapons carry laws because they believe these laws jeopardize law enforcement officials, who risk their lives to protect the citizenry. This paper strongly rejects this contention. States that allowed law-abiding citizens to carry concealed weapons had a slightly higher likelihood of having a felonious police death and slightly higher police death rates prior to the law. After enactment of the right-to-carry laws, states exhibit a reduced likelihood of having a felonious police death rate and slightly lower rates of police deaths. States that implement waiting periods have slightly lower felonious police death rates both before and after the law. Allowing law-abiding citizens to carry concealed weapons does not endanger the lives of officers and may help reduce their risk of being killed

========

http://johnrlott.tripod.com/tideman.pdf


Does the Right to Carry Concealed Handguns Deter Countable Crimes? Only a Count Analysis Can Say By FLORENZ PLASSMANN AND T. NICOLAUS TIDEMAN, Journal of Law and Economics, October 2001

However, for all three crime categories the levels in years 2 and 3 after adoption of a right-to-carry law are significantly below the levels in the years before the adoption of the law, which suggests that there is generally a deterrent effect and that it takes about 1 year for this effect to emerge.

=======

http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/323313

Testing for the Effects of Concealed Weapons Laws: Specification Errors and Robustness*




Carlisle E. Moody
College of William and Mary
Overall, right‐to‐carry concealed weapons laws tend to reduce violent crime. The effect on property crime is more uncertain. I find evidence that these laws also reduce burglary.
====
http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Helland-Tabarrok-Placebo-Laws.pdf
Using Placebo Laws to Test “More Guns, Less Crime”∗ Eric Helland and Alexander Tabarrok

We also find, however, that the cross equation restrictions implied by the Lott-Mustard theory are supported.
-----
Surprisingly, therefore, we conclude that there is considerable support for the hypothesis that shall-issue laws cause criminals to substitute away from crimes against persons and towards crimes against property.
===========
http://johnrlott.tripod.com/Maltz.pdf

Right-to-Carry Concealed Weapon Laws and Homicide in Large U.S. Counties: The Effect on Weapon Types, Victim Characteristics, and Victim-Offender Relationships By DAVID E. OLSON AND MICHAEL D. MALTZ, Journal of Law and Economics, October 2001

Our results indicated that the direction of effect of the shall-issue law on total SHR homicide rates was similar to that obtained by Lott and Mustard, although the magnitude of the effect was somewhat smaller and was statistically significant at the 7 percent level. In our analysis, which included only counties with a 1977 population of 100,000 or more, laws allowing for concealed weapons were associated with a 6.52 percent reduction in total homicides (Table 2). By comparison, Lott and Mustard found the concealed weapon dummy variable to be associated with a 7.65 percent reduction in total homicides across all counties and a 9 percent reduction in homicides when only large counties (populations of 100,000 or more) were included.43

===============

This one shows the benefits, in the billions of CCW laws...

http://johnrlott.tripod.com/Plassmann_Whitley.pdf

COMMENTS Confirming ìMore Guns, Less Crimeî Florenz Plassmann* & John Whitley**

CONCLUSION Analyzing county-level data for the entire United States from 1977 to 2000, we find annual reductions in murder rates between 1.5% and 2.3% for each additional year that a right-to-carry law is in effect. For the first five years that such a law is in effect, the total benefit from reduced crimes usually ranges between about $2 and $3 billion per year. The results are very similar to earlier estimates using county-level data from 1977 to 1996. We appreciate the continuing effort that Ayres and Donohue have made in discussing the impact of right-to-carry laws on crime rates. Yet we believe that both the new evidence provided by them as well as our new results show consistently that right-to-carry laws reduce crime and save lives. Unfortunately, a few simple mistakes lead Ayres and Donohue to incorrectly claim that crime rates significantly increase after right-to-carry laws are initially adopted and to misinterpret the significance of their own estimates that examined the year-to-year impact of the law.

=============

http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content...An-Exercise-in-Replication.proof_.revised.pdf

~ The Impact of Right-to-Carry Laws on Crime: An Exercise in Replication1

Carlisle E. Moody College of William and Mary - Department of Economics, Virginia 23187, U.S.A. E-mail: [email protected] Thomas B. Marvell Justec Research, Virginia 23185, U.S.A. Paul R. Zimmerman U.S. Federal Trade Commission - Bureau of Economics, Washington, D.C., U.S.A. Fasil Alemante College of William and Mary, Virginia 23187, U.S.A.


Abstract: In an article published in 2011, Aneja, Donohue and Zhang found that shall-issue or right-to-carry (RTC) concealed weapons laws have no effect on any crime except for a positive effect on assault. This paper reports a replication of their basic findings and some corresponding robustness checks, which reveal a serious omitted variable problem. Once corrected for omitted variables, the most robust result, confirmed using both county and state data, is that RTC laws significantly reduce murder. There is no robust, consistent evidence that RTC laws have any significant effect on other violent crimes, including assault. There is some weak evidence that RTC laws increase robbery and assault while decreasing rape. Given that the victim costs of murder and rape are much higher than the costs of robbery and assault, the evidence shows that RTC laws are socially beneficial.

=======

States with lower guns = higher murder....and assault weapon ban pointless..

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13504851.2013.854294

An examination of the effects of concealed weapons laws and assault weapons bans on state-level murder rates
Mark Gius

Abstract
The purpose of the present study is to determine the effects of state-level assault weapons bans and concealed weapons laws on state-level murder rates. Using data for the period 1980 to 2009 and controlling for state and year fixed effects, the results of the present study suggest that states with restrictions on the carrying of concealed weapons had higher gun-related murder rates than other states. It was also found that assault weapons bans did not significantly affect murder rates at the state level. These results suggest that restrictive concealed weapons laws may cause an increase in gun-related murders at the state level. The results of this study are consistent with some prior research in this area, most notably Lott and Mustard (1997).





Taking apart ayre and donahue one....




“The Debate on Shall-Issue Laws” by Carlisle e. Moody and Thomas B. Marvell, published in Econ Journal Watch, volume 5, number 3, September 2008 It is also available here..



Abstract
“Shall-issue” laws require authorities to issue concealed-weapons permits to anyone who applies, unless the applicant has a criminal record or a history of mental illness. A large number of studies indicate that shall-issue laws reduce crime. Only one study, an influential paper in the Stanford Law Review (2003) by Ian Ayres and John J. Donohue iii, implies that these laws lead to an increase in crime. We apply an improved version of the Ayres and Donohue method to a more extensive data set. Our analysis, as well as Ayres and Donohue’s when projected beyond a five-year span, indicates that shall-issue laws decrease crime and the costs of crime. Purists in statistical analysis object with some cause to some of methods employed both by Ayres and Donohue and by us. But our paper upgrades Ayres and Donohue, so, until the next study comes along, our paper should neutralize Ayres and Donohue’s “more guns, more crime” conclusion.

Summary and Conclusion Many articles have been published finding that shall-issue laws reduce crime. Only one article, by Ayres and Donohue who employ a model that combines a dummy variable with a post-law trend, claims to find that shall-issue laws increase crime. However, the only way that they can produce the result that shall-issue laws increase crime is to confine the span of analysis to five years. We show, using their own estimates, that if they had extended their analysis by one more year, they would have concluded that these laws reduce crime. Since most states with shallissue laws have had these laws on the books for more than five years, and the law will presumably remain on the books for some time, the only relevant analysis extends beyond five years. We extend their analysis by adding three more years of data, control for the effects of crack cocaine, control for dynamic effects, and correct the standard errors for clustering. We find that there is an initial increase in crime due to passage of the shall-issue law that is dwarfed over time by the decrease in crime associated with the post-law trend. These results are very similar to those of Ayres and Donohue, properly interpreted. The modified Ayres and Donohue model finds that shall-issue laws significantly reduce murder and burglary across all the adopting states. These laws appear to significantly increase assault, and have no net effect on rape, robbery, larceny, or auto theft. However, in the long run only the trend coefficients matter. We estimate a net benefit of $450 million per year as a result of the passage of these laws. We also estimate that, up through 2000, there was a cumulative overall net benefit of these laws of $28 billion since their passage. We think that there is credible statistical evidence that these laws lower the costs of crime. But at the very least, the present study should neutralize any “more guns, more crime” thinking based on Ayres and Donohue’s work in the Stanford Law Review. We acknowledge that, especially in light of the methodological issues of the literature in general, the magnitudes derived from our analysis of crime statistics and the supposed costs of crime might be dwarfed by other considerations in judging the policy issue. Some might contend that allowing individuals to carry a concealed weapon is a moral or cultural bad. Others might contend that greater liberty is a moral or cultural good. All we are confident in saying is that the evidence, such as it is, seems to support the hypothesis that the shall-issue law is generally beneficial with respect to its overall long run effect on crime.