Gulf Fishermen Reel from Seafood Troubles

[catzmeow]

Gulf fishermen reel from seafood troubles - National Business - MiamiHerald.com

An Associated Press examination of catch data from last year's commercial harvest along the Gulf - the first full year of fishing since the 2010 spill - reveals merit in the fishermen's complaints. According to the analysis of figures obtained through public records requests, seafood crops hit rock bottom in the Barataria estuary, the same place where some of the thickest waves of oil washed in when a BP well exploded in the Gulf of Mexico.

...In Barataria, the number of shrimpers in the water has remained steady, yet the fall season was off by about 7 million pounds from an average of 18.1 million pounds between 2006 and 2009. It wasn't a pretty picture for blue crabs either in Barataria: the crab catch was off by 2.7 million pounds from an average of 9.5 million pounds between 2006 and 2009, the data showed.

 

[Trakar]

Gulf fishermen reel from seafood troubles - National Business - MiamiHerald.com

An Associated Press examination of catch data from last year's commercial harvest along the Gulf - the first full year of fishing since the 2010 spill - reveals merit in the fishermen's complaints. According to the analysis of figures obtained through public records requests, seafood crops hit rock bottom in the Barataria estuary, the same place where some of the thickest waves of oil washed in when a BP well exploded in the Gulf of Mexico.

...In Barataria, the number of shrimpers in the water has remained steady, yet the fall season was off by about 7 million pounds from an average of 18.1 million pounds between 2006 and 2009. It wasn't a pretty picture for blue crabs either in Barataria: the crab catch was off by 2.7 million pounds from an average of 9.5 million pounds between 2006 and 2009, the data showed.

While I've little doubt that the catches, particularly among seafloor product like crabs and shrimp, are affected and impacted by the magnitude of the contaminant marinade these areas were subjected to, these numbers seem a little strange. I seem to recall that these particular areas were already showing declining catches attributed to over-fishing, warming waters and various other environmental impacts. I'm curious as to why they were comparing a single season to the average of the previous four seasons, rather than comparing them directly to the last season or two. There is some preliminary science out on the issue, and I'd be interested in any more current studies you are aware of, but I'm not sure that this AP reporter look at the issue is one to get terribly worked up about.

"An expert opinion of when the Gulf of Mexico will return to pre-spill harvest status following the BP Deepwater Horizon MC 252 oil spill" - http://media.nola.com/2010_gulf_oil_spill/other/Tunnell-GCCF-Final-Report.pdf

 

[westwall]

Gulf fishermen reel from seafood troubles - National Business - MiamiHerald.com

An Associated Press examination of catch data from last year's commercial harvest along the Gulf - the first full year of fishing since the 2010 spill - reveals merit in the fishermen's complaints. According to the analysis of figures obtained through public records requests, seafood crops hit rock bottom in the Barataria estuary, the same place where some of the thickest waves of oil washed in when a BP well exploded in the Gulf of Mexico.

...In Barataria, the number of shrimpers in the water has remained steady, yet the fall season was off by about 7 million pounds from an average of 18.1 million pounds between 2006 and 2009. It wasn't a pretty picture for blue crabs either in Barataria: the crab catch was off by 2.7 million pounds from an average of 9.5 million pounds between 2006 and 2009, the data showed.

While I've little doubt that the catches, particularly among seafloor product like crabs and shrimp, are affected and impacted by the magnitude of the contaminant marinade these areas were subjected to, these numbers seem a little strange. I seem to recall that these particular areas were already showing declining catches attributed to over-fishing, warming waters and various other environmental impacts. I'm curious as to why they were comparing a single season to the average of the previous four seasons, rather than comparing them directly to the last season or two. There is some preliminary science out on the issue, and I'd be interested in any more current studies you are aware of, but I'm not sure that this AP reporter look at the issue is one to get terribly worked up about.

"An expert opinion of when the Gulf of Mexico will return to pre-spill harvest status following the BP Deepwater Horizon MC 252 oil spill" - http://media.nola.com/2010_gulf_oil_spill/other/Tunnell-GCCF-Final-Report.pdf

I agree with the over fishing issue but according to every data set I've seen there has been no measurable warming in the Gulf. Temp swings of 5 to 7 degrees either above or below average are common on a daily basis depending on cloud cover.


Sea Surface Temperature Daily Composite - IMCS Coastal Ocean Observation Lab

 

[catzmeow]

Gulf fishermen reel from seafood troubles - National Business - MiamiHerald.com

While I've little doubt that the catches, particularly among seafloor product like crabs and shrimp, are affected and impacted by the magnitude of the contaminant marinade these areas were subjected to, these numbers seem a little strange. I seem to recall that these particular areas were already showing declining catches attributed to over-fishing, warming waters and various other environmental impacts. I'm curious as to why they were comparing a single season to the average of the previous four seasons, rather than comparing them directly to the last season or two. There is some preliminary science out on the issue, and I'd be interested in any more current studies you are aware of, but I'm not sure that this AP reporter look at the issue is one to get terribly worked up about.

"An expert opinion of when the Gulf of Mexico will return to pre-spill harvest status following the BP Deepwater Horizon MC 252 oil spill" - http://media.nola.com/2010_gulf_oil_spill/other/Tunnell-GCCF-Final-Report.pdf

I agree with the over fishing issue but according to every data set I've seen there has been no measurable warming in the Gulf. Temp swings of 5 to 7 degrees either above or below average are common on a daily basis depending on cloud cover.


Sea Surface Temperature Daily Composite - IMCS Coastal Ocean Observation Lab

The fishing shortfalls appear localized to the specific section that was most heavily impacted by the Deepwater well. It's a curious coinkidink.

 

[Trakar]

I agree with the over fishing issue but according to every data set I've seen there has been no measurable warming in the Gulf. Temp swings of 5 to 7 degrees either above or below average are common on a daily basis depending on cloud cover.


Sea Surface Temperature Daily Composite - IMCS Coastal Ocean Observation Lab

Which data are you looking at? I don't see support for this in the linked data, but it is a very limited dataset not extensive enough to include climatically relevent data from which to extract such a trending. Have you an acceptable professional journal article reference that supports your understandings? or any compelling data and argument to proffer?

 

[Trakar]

The fishing shortfalls appear localized to the specific section that was most heavily impacted by the Deepwater well. It's a curious coinkidink.

The article you cite doesn't seem to support this interpretation of your reading, indicating that there are numerous factors likely involved, and that the decline seems more general than you appear to be implying. But I may be misunderstanding what you are trying to say, could you clarify and specify your remarks and cite the specific statements that you feel support this understanding?

 

[westwall]

I agree with the over fishing issue but according to every data set I've seen there has been no measurable warming in the Gulf. Temp swings of 5 to 7 degrees either above or below average are common on a daily basis depending on cloud cover.


Sea Surface Temperature Daily Composite - IMCS Coastal Ocean Observation Lab

Which data are you looking at? I don't see support for this in the linked data, but it is a very limited dataset not extensive enough to include climatically relevent data from which to extract such a trending. Have you an acceptable professional journal article reference that supports your understandings? or any compelling data and argument to proffer?

Do you have any empirical data sets to support your contention that any of the oceans are warming? Or is all you have based on computer models like 98% of all the AGW alarmist reports?

 

[Old Rocks]

I agree with the over fishing issue but according to every data set I've seen there has been no measurable warming in the Gulf. Temp swings of 5 to 7 degrees either above or below average are common on a daily basis depending on cloud cover.


Sea Surface Temperature Daily Composite - IMCS Coastal Ocean Observation Lab

Which data are you looking at? I don't see support for this in the linked data, but it is a very limited dataset not extensive enough to include climatically relevent data from which to extract such a trending. Have you an acceptable professional journal article reference that supports your understandings? or any compelling data and argument to proffer?

Do you have any empirical data sets to support your contention that any of the oceans are warming? Or is all you have based on computer models like 98% of all the AGW alarmist reports?

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1375.html#/affil-auth


Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty
Norman G. Loeb,
John M. Lyman,
Gregory C. Johnson,
Richard P. Allan,
David R. Doelling,
Takmeng Wong,
Brian J. Soden
& Graeme L. Stephens
Affiliations
Contributions
Corresponding author
Nature Geoscience(2012)doi:10.1038/ngeo1375Received 11 August 2011 Accepted 16 December 2011 Published online 22 January 2012



Global climate change results from a small yet persistent imbalance between the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth and the thermal radiation emitted back to space1. An apparent inconsistency has been diagnosed between interannual variations in the net radiation imbalance inferred from satellite measurements and upper-ocean heating rate from in situ measurements, and this inconsistency has been interpreted as ‘missing energy’ in the system2. Here we present a revised analysis of net radiation at the top of the atmosphere from satellite data, and we estimate ocean heat content, based on three independent sources. We find that the difference between the heat balance at the top of the atmosphere and upper-ocean heat content change is not statistically significant when accounting for observational uncertainties in ocean measurements3, given transitions in instrumentation and sampling. Furthermore, variability in Earth’s energy imbalance relating to El Niño-Southern Oscillation is found to be consistent within observational uncertainties among the satellite measurements, a reanalysis model simulation and one of the ocean heat content records. We combine satellite data with ocean measurements to depths of 1,800 m, and show that between January 2001 and December 2010, Earth has been steadily accumulating energy at a rate of 0.50±0.43 Wm−2 (uncertainties at the 90% confidence level). We conclude that energy storage is continuing to increase in the sub-surface ocean.

 

[Old Rocks]

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3027/pdf/2011-3027.pdf

Sea-surface temperature records derived from a sediment core from the Pigmy Basin in the northern Gulf of Mexico and a coral core from Puerto Rico were analyzed for evidence of AMO-like oscillations to determine if these proxy sea-surface temperature records could be used to extend the record of the AMO back in time prior to instrumental measurements. The detailed results of this study were published in December 2009 as part of a special issue of Geo-Marine Letters that documents early results from the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) Ecosystem Change and Hazard Susceptibility Project (Poore and others, 2009).

The graph in this paper clearly shows the warming of the Gulf waters.

 

[catzmeow]

The fishing shortfalls appear localized to the specific section that was most heavily impacted by the Deepwater well. It's a curious coinkidink.

The article you cite doesn't seem to support this interpretation of your reading, indicating that there are numerous factors likely involved, and that the decline seems more general than you appear to be implying. But I may be misunderstanding what you are trying to say, could you clarify and specify your remarks and cite the specific statements that you feel support this understanding?

The article looked at fishing levels from Texas to Florida. The most drastic decreases in catches are in the areas (waters off of Mississippi, Alabama, and parts of Louisiana) that were most heavily impacted by Deepwater Horizon. Florida had very little impact, as did west Louisiana and Texas.

 

[catzmeow]

Which data are you looking at? I don't see support for this in the linked data, but it is a very limited dataset not extensive enough to include climatically relevent data from which to extract such a trending. Have you an acceptable professional journal article reference that supports your understandings? or any compelling data and argument to proffer?

Do you have any empirical data sets to support your contention that any of the oceans are warming? Or is all you have based on computer models like 98% of all the AGW alarmist reports?

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1375.html#/affil-auth


Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty
Norman G. Loeb,
John M. Lyman,
Gregory C. Johnson,
Richard P. Allan,
David R. Doelling,
Takmeng Wong,
Brian J. Soden
& Graeme L. Stephens
Affiliations
Contributions
Corresponding author
Nature Geoscience(2012)doi:10.1038/ngeo1375Received 11 August 2011 Accepted 16 December 2011 Published online 22 January 2012



Global climate change results from a small yet persistent imbalance between the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth and the thermal radiation emitted back to space1. An apparent inconsistency has been diagnosed between interannual variations in the net radiation imbalance inferred from satellite measurements and upper-ocean heating rate from in situ measurements, and this inconsistency has been interpreted as ‘missing energy’ in the system2. Here we present a revised analysis of net radiation at the top of the atmosphere from satellite data, and we estimate ocean heat content, based on three independent sources. We find that the difference between the heat balance at the top of the atmosphere and upper-ocean heat content change is not statistically significant when accounting for observational uncertainties in ocean measurements3, given transitions in instrumentation and sampling. Furthermore, variability in Earth’s energy imbalance relating to El Niño-Southern Oscillation is found to be consistent within observational uncertainties among the satellite measurements, a reanalysis model simulation and one of the ocean heat content records. We combine satellite data with ocean measurements to depths of 1,800 m, and show that between January 2001 and December 2010, Earth has been steadily accumulating energy at a rate of 0.50±0.43 Wm−2 (uncertainties at the 90% confidence level). We conclude that energy storage is continuing to increase in the sub-surface ocean.

We're talking about a very small section of the gulf coast, relative to the entire ocean.

Do you have data on warming trends IN THE GULF OF MEXICO?

 

[Trakar]

Which data are you looking at? I don't see support for this in the linked data, but it is a very limited dataset not extensive enough to include climatically relevent data from which to extract such a trending. Have you an acceptable professional journal article reference that supports your understandings? or any compelling data and argument to proffer?

Do you have any empirical data sets to support your contention that any of the oceans are warming? Or is all you have based on computer models like 98% of all the AGW alarmist reports?

Typically, I would expect such a question to be prefaced with a response to my question; that said, I understand that some people see questions as challenges rather than the requests for explanations about why other people hold the understandings/beliefs that they do.

Regardless, there are numerous studies compellingly indicating that there has been an increase of temperature in the Gulf of Mexico in the modern era:

"Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change" - http://www.law.arizona.edu/AdaptationConference/PDFs/ParmesanAREES_Impacts2006.pdf

...One optimistic result suggests that corals, to some extent, may be able to mirror
terrestrial range shifts. Two particularly cold-sensitive species (staghorn coral, Acropora
ceervicornis, and elkhorn coral, Acropora palmata) have recently expanded their
ranges into the northern Gulf of Mexico (first observation in 1998), concurrent with
rising SST (Precht & Aronson 2004). Although continued poleward shift will be limited
by light availability at some point (Hoegh-Guldberg 1999), small range shifts
may aid in developing new refugia against extreme SST events in future...

"Climate-related, decadal-scale assemblage changes of seagrass-associated fishes in the northern Gulf of Mexico" - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01889.x/full

...During 2006–2007 we sampled seagrass meadows using the same gears and methods previously employed by R. J. Livingston in coastal waters of northwest Florida throughout the 1970s. Comparisons between datasets revealed numerous additions to the fish fauna during 2006–2007 that were completely absent in the 1970s, including: Lutjanus synagris (lane snapper), Epinephelus morio (red grouper), Chaetodon ocellatus (spotfin butterflyfish), Mycteroperca sp (grouper, non gag), Centropristis philadelphica (rock sea bass), Fistularia tabacaria (bluespotted cornetfish), Ocyurus chrysurus (yellowtail snapper), Thalassoma bifasciatum (bluehead wrasse), Abudefduf saxatilis (sergeant major), Acanthuridae spp. (surgeonfishes) and Sparisoma viride (stoplight parrotfish). Several other species showed large increases in abundance during the interval between 1979 and 2006, including Mycteroperca microlepis (gag grouper, up ∼200 ×), Lutjanus griseus (gray snapper, up ∼105 ×), and Nicholsina usta (emerald parrotfish, up ∼22 ×). All of these are tropical or subtropical species that now make up a greater percentage of seagrass-associated fish assemblages in the northern GOM than in the past. Additionally, we observed regional increases in air and sea surface temperatures (> 3 °C) during the ∼30 years that separate Livingston's samples and ours that correlate with northern shifts in the distribution of warm-water fishes...

I can see how you may feel that overall trends are with variability ranges, but that variability itself has been exagerated over the last few decades, which can mask longer term trends if you only look at abbreviated time frames:

"Seasonal and spatial heterogeneity of recent sea surface temperature trends in the Caribbean Sea and southeast GulfofMexico" - ScienceDirect.com - Marine Pollution Bulletin - Seasonal and spatial heterogeneity of recent sea surface temperature trends in the Caribbean Sea and southeast Gulf of Mexico

Recent changes in ocean temperature have impacted marine ecosystem function globally. Nevertheless, the responses have depended upon the rate of change of temperature and the season when the changes occur, which are spatially variable. A rigorous statistical analysis of sea surface temperature observations over 25 years was used to examine spatial variability in overall and seasonal temperature trends within the wider Caribbean. The basin has experienced high spatial variability in rates of change of temperature. Most of the warming has been due to increases in summer rather than winter temperatures. However, warming was faster in winter in the Loop Current area and the south-eastern Caribbean, where the annual temperature ranges have contracted...

Looking within the paper, they appear to have identified a 0.1C/decade average SST warming trend in the Gulf of Mexico over the last few decades with a calculated .95 CI for their findings.

I do have additional references and citations if you are interested, but this should satisfy as an initial response to your question regarding whether or not the information I am utilizing in my understandings is the result of "computer models" or empirical data.

Now, will you respond to my question and provide me with the journal references for the peer-reviewed publications that have led you to your understandings of this issue?

 

[Trakar]

The article looked at fishing levels from Texas to Florida. The most drastic decreases in catches are in the areas (waters off of Mississippi, Alabama, and parts of Louisiana) that were most heavily impacted by Deepwater Horizon. Florida had very little impact, as did west Louisiana and Texas.

I'm primarily concerned about the cherry-picking of data. It looks like the authors of the piece were somewhat careful about including numerous qualifications despite a clear slant implying that the Deep Horizons disaster was the prime issue. Unfortunately, when you reported the article you went further out on that limb and as of yet, have not even acknowledged that qualifications are necessary and that other factors likely play a large role in the issue (something the article includes and notes).

I am not, in the least, doubting that the contamination due to this incident has a major role in the current harvest declines, but it would be inaccurate and inappropriate from the studies and papers that I am aware of, to try and lay this reading of the data as solely and totally due to the contamination issue. Uncorrected exaggerations turn discussions into mere rhetoric (regardless of which side those exaggerations come from), and the rhetoric is more of the the source of problems and misunderstandings rather than a source of good information and potential solutions.

I do not mean to offend you, in the issue of climate change, however, the science and facts are solid and compelling all on their own, we have to be careful about overstating and exaggerating that science and the facts it encompasses regardless of what our personal perspectives and beliefs are.

 

[westwall]

Which data are you looking at? I don't see support for this in the linked data, but it is a very limited dataset not extensive enough to include climatically relevent data from which to extract such a trending. Have you an acceptable professional journal article reference that supports your understandings? or any compelling data and argument to proffer?

Do you have any empirical data sets to support your contention that any of the oceans are warming? Or is all you have based on computer models like 98% of all the AGW alarmist reports?

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1375.html#/affil-auth


Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty
Norman G. Loeb,
John M. Lyman,
Gregory C. Johnson,
Richard P. Allan,
David R. Doelling,
Takmeng Wong,
Brian J. Soden
& Graeme L. Stephens
Affiliations
Contributions
Corresponding author
Nature Geoscience(2012)doi:10.1038/ngeo1375Received 11 August 2011 Accepted 16 December 2011 Published online 22 January 2012



Global climate change results from a small yet persistent imbalance between the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth and the thermal radiation emitted back to space1. An apparent inconsistency has been diagnosed between interannual variations in the net radiation imbalance inferred from satellite measurements and upper-ocean heating rate from in situ measurements, and this inconsistency has been interpreted as ‘missing energy’ in the system2. Here we present a revised analysis of net radiation at the top of the atmosphere from satellite data, and we estimate ocean heat content, based on three independent sources. We find that the difference between the heat balance at the top of the atmosphere and upper-ocean heat content change is not statistically significant when accounting for observational uncertainties in ocean measurements3, given transitions in instrumentation and sampling. Furthermore, variability in Earth’s energy imbalance relating to El Niño-Southern Oscillation is found to be consistent within observational uncertainties among the satellite measurements, a reanalysis model simulation and one of the ocean heat content records. We combine satellite data with ocean measurements to depths of 1,800 m, and show that between January 2001 and December 2010, Earth has been steadily accumulating energy at a rate of 0.50±0.43 Wm−2 (uncertainties at the 90% confidence level). We conclude that energy storage is continuing to increase in the sub-surface ocean.

A "science" created by fiction.

 

[westwall]

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3027/pdf/2011-3027.pdf

Sea-surface temperature records derived from a sediment core from the Pigmy Basin in the northern Gulf of Mexico and a coral core from Puerto Rico were analyzed for evidence of AMO-like oscillations to determine if these proxy sea-surface temperature records could be used to extend the record of the AMO back in time prior to instrumental measurements. The detailed results of this study were published in December 2009 as part of a special issue of Geo-Marine Letters that documents early results from the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) Ecosystem Change and Hazard Susceptibility Project (Poore and others, 2009).

The graph in this paper clearly shows the warming of the Gulf waters.

I found this part of the study to be particularly useful...don't you? I notice you didn't bother to post it....

"The results shown on figure 3 indicate AMO-like oscillations in
sea-surface temperature have been present since at least 1800.
Future work will focus on developing records to test for the presence
of AMO-like oscillations farther back in time."

 

[westwall]

Which data are you looking at? I don't see support for this in the linked data, but it is a very limited dataset not extensive enough to include climatically relevent data from which to extract such a trending. Have you an acceptable professional journal article reference that supports your understandings? or any compelling data and argument to proffer?

Do you have any empirical data sets to support your contention that any of the oceans are warming? Or is all you have based on computer models like 98% of all the AGW alarmist reports?

Typically, I would expect such a question to be prefaced with a response to my question; that said, I understand that some people see questions as challenges rather than the requests for explanations about why other people hold the understandings/beliefs that they do.

Regardless, there are numerous studies compellingly indicating that there has been an increase of temperature in the Gulf of Mexico in the modern era:

"Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change" - http://www.law.arizona.edu/AdaptationConference/PDFs/ParmesanAREES_Impacts2006.pdf



"Climate-related, decadal-scale assemblage changes of seagrass-associated fishes in the northern Gulf of Mexico" - Climate-related, decadal-scale assemblage changes of seagrass-associated fishes in the northern Gulf of Mexico - FODRIE - 2009 - Global Change Biology - Wiley Online Library

...During 2006–2007 we sampled seagrass meadows using the same gears and methods previously employed by R. J. Livingston in coastal waters of northwest Florida throughout the 1970s. Comparisons between datasets revealed numerous additions to the fish fauna during 2006–2007 that were completely absent in the 1970s, including: Lutjanus synagris (lane snapper), Epinephelus morio (red grouper), Chaetodon ocellatus (spotfin butterflyfish), Mycteroperca sp (grouper, non gag), Centropristis philadelphica (rock sea bass), Fistularia tabacaria (bluespotted cornetfish), Ocyurus chrysurus (yellowtail snapper), Thalassoma bifasciatum (bluehead wrasse), Abudefduf saxatilis (sergeant major), Acanthuridae spp. (surgeonfishes) and Sparisoma viride (stoplight parrotfish). Several other species showed large increases in abundance during the interval between 1979 and 2006, including Mycteroperca microlepis (gag grouper, up ∼200 ×), Lutjanus griseus (gray snapper, up ∼105 ×), and Nicholsina usta (emerald parrotfish, up ∼22 ×). All of these are tropical or subtropical species that now make up a greater percentage of seagrass-associated fish assemblages in the northern GOM than in the past. Additionally, we observed regional increases in air and sea surface temperatures (> 3 °C) during the ∼30 years that separate Livingston's samples and ours that correlate with northern shifts in the distribution of warm-water fishes...

I can see how you may feel that overall trends are with variability ranges, but that variability itself has been exagerated over the last few decades, which can mask longer term trends if you only look at abbreviated time frames:

"Seasonal and spatial heterogeneity of recent sea surface temperature trends in the Caribbean Sea and southeast GulfofMexico" - ScienceDirect.com - Marine Pollution Bulletin - Seasonal and spatial heterogeneity of recent sea surface temperature trends in the Caribbean Sea and southeast Gulf of Mexico

Recent changes in ocean temperature have impacted marine ecosystem function globally. Nevertheless, the responses have depended upon the rate of change of temperature and the season when the changes occur, which are spatially variable. A rigorous statistical analysis of sea surface temperature observations over 25 years was used to examine spatial variability in overall and seasonal temperature trends within the wider Caribbean. The basin has experienced high spatial variability in rates of change of temperature. Most of the warming has been due to increases in summer rather than winter temperatures. However, warming was faster in winter in the Loop Current area and the south-eastern Caribbean, where the annual temperature ranges have contracted...

Looking within the paper, they appear to have identified a 0.1C/decade average SST warming trend in the Gulf of Mexico over the last few decades with a calculated .95 CI for their findings.

I do have additional references and citations if you are interested, but this should satisfy as an initial response to your question regarding whether or not the information I am utilizing in my understandings is the result of "computer models" or empirical data.

Now, will you respond to my question and provide me with the journal references for the peer-reviewed publications that have led you to your understandings of this issue?

I will review your links and get back to you. However, in the meantime please address this issue. All of the available data says that the oceans have warmed a whopping .09C over the last 55 years and none over the last 10 to 12, in fact there is good data that says the oceans have slightly cooled over the last decade. The wildly feared oceans rise has also not transpired. In fact ocean levels have dropped a tad. How do you explain that?

"March 19, 2008

Some 3,000 scientific robots that are plying the ocean have sent home a puzzling message. These diving instruments suggest that the oceans have not warmed up at all over the past four or five years. That could mean global warming has taken a breather. Or it could mean scientists aren't quite understanding what their robots are telling them.

This is puzzling in part because here on the surface of the Earth, the years since 2003 have been some of the hottest on record. But Josh Willis at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory says the oceans are what really matter when it comes to global warming.

In fact, 80 percent to 90 percent of global warming involves heating up ocean waters. They hold much more heat than the atmosphere can. So Willis has been studying the ocean with a fleet of robotic instruments called the Argo system. The buoys can dive 3,000 feet down and measure ocean temperature. Since the system was fully deployed in 2003, it has recorded no warming of the global oceans.

"There has been a very slight cooling, but not anything really significant," Willis says. So the buildup of heat on Earth may be on a brief hiatus. "Global warming doesn't mean every year will be warmer than the last. And it may be that we are in a period of less rapid warming."

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025


And then there's this....

Well, in a recent issue of theJournal of Physical Oceanography, an article appears entitled “Is the World Ocean Warming? Upper-Ocean Temperature Trends: 1950–2000”. Once again, we at World Climate Report are attracted to research that dares to question any of the pillars of the greenhouse scare, and from just the title alone, we knew we would enjoy this article. We were not disappointed.
The article is written by scientists at the School of Oceanography at the University of Washington and the research was funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Harrison and Carson begin their article noting that interest in ocean temperatures is at an all-time high given the buzz about climate change and the greenhouse effect. They state that below-surface ocean temperature data are sparse, and the existing data sets involve substantial “interpolation, extrapolation, and averaging” that may compromise the integrity of results from such data sets. Harrison and Carson “present results that involve very little manipulation of the data and do not depend upon an analyzed field.”



http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2007/05/14/questioning-ocean-warming/

 

[Trakar]

Do you have any empirical data sets to support your contention that any of the oceans are warming? Or is all you have based on computer models like 98% of all the AGW alarmist reports?

Typically, I would expect such a question to be prefaced with a response to my question; that said, I understand that some people see questions as challenges rather than the requests for explanations about why other people hold the understandings/beliefs that they do.

Regardless, there are numerous studies compellingly indicating that there has been an increase of temperature in the Gulf of Mexico in the modern era:

"Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change" - http://www.law.arizona.edu/AdaptationConference/PDFs/ParmesanAREES_Impacts2006.pdf



"Climate-related, decadal-scale assemblage changes of seagrass-associated fishes in the northern Gulf of Mexico" - Climate-related, decadal-scale assemblage changes of seagrass-associated fishes in the northern Gulf of Mexico - FODRIE - 2009 - Global Change Biology - Wiley Online Library



I can see how you may feel that overall trends are with variability ranges, but that variability itself has been exagerated over the last few decades, which can mask longer term trends if you only look at abbreviated time frames:

"Seasonal and spatial heterogeneity of recent sea surface temperature trends in the Caribbean Sea and southeast GulfofMexico" - ScienceDirect.com - Marine Pollution Bulletin - Seasonal and spatial heterogeneity of recent sea surface temperature trends in the Caribbean Sea and southeast Gulf of Mexico (...trimmed for ease of reading...)
Now, will you respond to my question and provide me with the journal references for the peer-reviewed publications that have led you to your understandings of this issue?

I will review your links and get back to you...

I will be happy to read, consider and respond to your follow-on issues and questions when you have answered and responded to my question and request for peer-reviewed journal citations in support of your intitial assertion.

Re:

I agree with the over fishing issue but according to every data set I've seen there has been no measurable warming in the Gulf. Temp swings of 5 to 7 degrees either above or below average are common on a daily basis depending on cloud cover.


Sea Surface Temperature Daily Composite - IMCS Coastal Ocean Observation Lab

Which data are you looking at? I don't see support for this in the linked data, but it is a very limited dataset not extensive enough to include climatically relevent data from which to extract such a trending. Have you an acceptable professional journal article reference that supports your understandings? or any compelling data and argument to proffer?

 

[westwall]

Typically, I would expect such a question to be prefaced with a response to my question; that said, I understand that some people see questions as challenges rather than the requests for explanations about why other people hold the understandings/beliefs that they do.

Regardless, there are numerous studies compellingly indicating that there has been an increase of temperature in the Gulf of Mexico in the modern era:

"Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change" - http://www.law.arizona.edu/AdaptationConference/PDFs/ParmesanAREES_Impacts2006.pdf



"Climate-related, decadal-scale assemblage changes of seagrass-associated fishes in the northern Gulf of Mexico" - Climate-related, decadal-scale assemblage changes of seagrass-associated fishes in the northern Gulf of Mexico - FODRIE - 2009 - Global Change Biology - Wiley Online Library



I can see how you may feel that overall trends are with variability ranges, but that variability itself has been exagerated over the last few decades, which can mask longer term trends if you only look at abbreviated time frames:

"Seasonal and spatial heterogeneity of recent sea surface temperature trends in the Caribbean Sea and southeast GulfofMexico" - ScienceDirect.com - Marine Pollution Bulletin - Seasonal and spatial heterogeneity of recent sea surface temperature trends in the Caribbean Sea and southeast Gulf of Mexico (...trimmed for ease of reading...)
Now, will you respond to my question and provide me with the journal references for the peer-reviewed publications that have led you to your understandings of this issue?

I will review your links and get back to you...

I will be happy to read, consider and respond to your follow-on issues and questions when you have answered and responded to my question and request for peer-reviewed journal citations in support of your intitial assertion.

Re:

I agree with the over fishing issue but according to every data set I've seen there has been no measurable warming in the Gulf. Temp swings of 5 to 7 degrees either above or below average are common on a daily basis depending on cloud cover.


Sea Surface Temperature Daily Composite - IMCS Coastal Ocean Observation Lab

Which data are you looking at? I don't see support for this in the linked data, but it is a very limited dataset not extensive enough to include climatically relevent data from which to extract such a trending. Have you an acceptable professional journal article reference that supports your understandings? or any compelling data and argument to proffer?

Peer review of what prey tell? It doesn't take a peer reviewed paper to read a temperature record.

I have done a partial review of the first link and so far evey study that it cites is based almost solely on computer models. The studies that actually were based on empirical data were those describing the movement of birds and other fauna due to the cold weather of the 1950's and 60's (which extended up into the 70's), namely those by Burton 1975, Heath 1974, Severnty 1977, and Williamson 1975.

And, of course, none of these studies address the very real problem that the planet is not warming as you say it is. With the impending doom of Trenberths study (upon which hundreds of peer reviewed studies are based) and the recent peer reviewed studies that show water vapor to be a NEGATIVE forcer (a few listed below for you, the blue highlighted one is particularly revealing) and the whole base assumption of AGW collapses.


Enjoy the read.

([xvi] Paltridge, G., Arking, A., Pook, M., 2009. Trends in middle- and upper-level tropospheric humidity from NCEP reanalysis data. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume 98, Numbers 3-4, pp. 351-35),

Miskolczi, Ferenc M. (2010), The Stable Stationary Value of the Earth’s Global Average Atmospheric Planck-Weighted Greenhouse-Gas Optical Thickness. Energy & Environment Vol. 21, No. 4, 2010 pp 243-263,

Miskolczi, Ferenc M. (2007) Greenhouse effect in semi-transparent planetary atmospheres. Idojaras Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service Vol. 111, No. 1, January–March 2007, pp. 1–40

Stockwell, David R. B. and Cox, A. (2009), Structural break models of climatic regime-shifts: claims and forecasts, Cornell University Library, arXiv10907.1650

Fu, Q, Manabe, S., and Johanson, C. (2011) On the warming in the tropical upper troposphere: Models vs observations, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, L15704, doi:10.1029/2011GL048101, 2011

Santer, B. D., P. W. Thorne, L. Haimberger, K. E Taylor, T. M Wigley,. L. Lanzante, J. R. Solomon, M. Free, P. J Gleckler, P. D. Jones, T. R Karl, S. A. Klein, C. Mears, D. Nychka, G. A. Schmidt, S. C. Sherwood and F. J. Wentz (2008), Consistency of modelled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. International Journal of Climatology, 28: 1703–1722. doi: 10.1002/joc.1756

 

[Trakar]

I will review your links and get back to you...

I will be happy to read, consider and respond to your follow-on issues and questions when you have answered and responded to my question and request for peer-reviewed journal citations in support of your intitial assertion.

Re:

Which data are you looking at? I don't see support for this in the linked data, but it is a very limited dataset not extensive enough to include climatically relevent data from which to extract such a trending. Have you an acceptable professional journal article reference that supports your understandings? or any compelling data and argument to proffer?

Peer review of what prey tell? It doesn't take a peer reviewed paper to read a temperature record.

So your response is:
that the support is not included in the information you provided as support,
that you know of no support for your assertions,
and that I'm foolish for not taking your word on the matter?

Is this seriously how you are seeking to discuss issues?

 

[Trakar]

I will review your links and get back to you. However, in the meantime please address this issue.

If it is relevent and related to the discussion of this thread's topic, I will be glad to comment upon your issues.

All of the available data says that the oceans have warmed a whopping .09C over the last 55 years and none over the last 10 to 12, in fact there is good data that says the oceans have slightly cooled over the last decade. The wildly feared oceans rise has also not transpired. In fact ocean levels have dropped a tad. How do you explain that?

None of this is really relevent to this thread or the ongoing discussion which is focussed on changes in the Gulf of Mexico and more specifically upon fishery harvests of certain species in very specific spots, but if you'd like to start a thread discussing those issues, I'd be happy to join you there and comment upon any issues you don't understand or feel are misrepresented in the mainstream scientific understanding of the topic.

"March 19, 2008
Some 3,000 scientific robots that are plying the ocean have sent home a puzzling message. These diving instruments suggest that the oceans have not warmed up at all over the past four or five years. That could mean global warming has taken a breather. Or it could mean scientists aren't quite understanding what their robots are telling them.

though your iteration of "facts" is strangely inaccurate, this again is irrelevent and unrelated to the topic of this thread. If you would like to start a thread discussing this topic in more detail I'd be happy to join you there and comment upon any issues you don't understand or feel are misrepresented in the mainstream scientific understanding of the topic.

This is puzzling in part because here on the surface of the Earth, the years since 2003 have been some of the hottest on record. But Josh Willis at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory says the oceans are what really matter when it comes to global warming.

again, irrelevent and unrelated to what this thread is discussing, but, if you would like to start a thread discussing this topic in more detail I'd be happy to join you there and comment upon any issues you don't understand or feel are misrepresented in the mainstream scientific understanding of the topic.
(as a few encouraging teasers:
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n7/full/nclimate1229.html
Global ocean heat and salt content
Correcting Ocean Cooling : Feature Articles - make sure you follow all 5 pages of the article)

In fact, 80 percent to 90 percent of global warming involves heating up ocean waters. They hold much more heat than the atmosphere can. So Willis has been studying the ocean with a fleet of robotic instruments called the Argo system. The buoys can dive 3,000 feet down and measure ocean temperature. Since the system was fully deployed in 2003, it has recorded no warming of the global oceans.

Again, irrelevent and unrelated to this thread's discussion (though it sounds interesting and is discussed in much detail in the last link above), but as stated previously, if you would like to start a thread discussing this topic in more detail I'd be happy to join you there and comment upon any issues you don't understand or feel are misrepresented in the mainstream scientific understanding of the topic.

"There has been a very slight cooling, but not anything really significant," Willis says. So the buildup of heat on Earth may be on a brief hiatus. "Global warming doesn't mean every year will be warmer than the last. And it may be that we are in a period of less rapid warming."

The Mystery of Global Warming's Missing Heat : NPR

It may well have been a "mystery" four years ago, but that mysetery has been largely resolved since then. Again, however, this is irrelevent and unrelated to this thread, if you would like to start a thread discussing this topic in more detail I'd be happy to join you there and comment upon any issues you don't understand or feel are misrepresented in the mainstream scientific understanding of the topic.

And then there's this....

Well, in a recent issue of theJournal of Physical Oceanography, an article appears entitled “Is the World Ocean Warming? Upper-Ocean Temperature Trends: 1950–2000”.

Not sure that I would call 2007 "recent" especially as it is a year older than your link to the NPR interview above, but as stated addressment can be found in the NASA EarthObservatory article listed above. Irrelevent, unrelated, yada yada yada...

Once again, we at World Climate Report are attracted to research that dares to question any of the pillars of the greenhouse scare, and from just the title alone, we knew we would enjoy this article. We were not disappointed.

So you are a researcher with the hyperpartisan "World Climate Report" political blog?