Growing Season Shortening.... Is it time to Panic?

[Billy_Bob]

I wouldn't panic just yet but the implications are very serious. Some of the US Bread Basket has lost almost two months of growing days in the last two years and if we extrapolate this out to the entire US it has some frightening results.

I took the US-CRN data base and applied the model to it... and here is the general outcome; (please note this is a very basic extrapolation and altitude makes a huge difference)

Above are the number of days reduction that have happened in just two years. When you consider we need the days to get two plantings and harvests, this cuts our output in half for many grains and food plant products...

We have dropped just 0.6 deg C, IF we lose another 1-2 deg C these numbers will increase rapidly. When we can not get even one season long enough for plants and food to mature, millions of people starve... Its not just the US that is being affected it is BOTH HEMISPHERES...

Source: ice age farmer :: grand solar minimum growing degree days analysis

H/T Sunsettommy

 

[JGalt]

I wouldn't panic just yet but the implications are very serious. Some of the US Bread Basket has lost almost two months of growing days in the last two years and if we extrapolate this out to the entire US it has some frightening results.

I took the US-CRN data base and applied the model to it... and here is the general outcome; (please note this is a very basic extrapolation and altitude makes a huge difference)

Above are the number of days reduction that have happened in just two years. When you consider we need the days to get two plantings and harvests, this cuts our output in half for many grains and food plant products...

We have dropped just 0.6 deg C, IF we lose another 1-2 deg C these numbers will increase rapidly. When we can not get even one season long enough for plants and food to mature, millions of people starve... Its not just the US that is being affected it is BOTH HEMISPHERES...

Source: ice age farmer :: grand solar minimum growing degree days analysis

H/T Sunsettommy

I noticed that too. It's been a cooler than usual summer.

 

[Billy_Bob]

What I found interesting was Oregon and Washington benefited from a warm ocean over the last two years but that is now gone. This next year should show a rapid decrease in growing days.

 

[Natural Citizen]

Well, I'll be having fried green tomatoes tonight, so.

It's my favorite part of the end of the season.

 

[Billy_Bob]

I love it... I post up a thread with the use of empirical evidence for a basis and left wing idiot posts up a thread about 187 million climate refugees from catastrophic warming... That isn't happening.. The damn idiots around here cant see the forest through the trees of empirical evidence. How man millions will die because we did not prepare for the coming glacial cycle, that we know is coming, all while fantasy driven control fanatics lie to the general populace?

 

[ABikerSailor]

It's not so much the growing season that I'm concerned about as it is the bees disappearing.

Last year? I had a squash plant that sprouted in my front yard. Probably a seed that was left by the birds, so I let it grow, wanting to see what kind of plant it was.

And, I took really good care of it, watered it every day and waited to see what it grew. All I really got out of the plant was a whole bunch of blooms, and only 2 squash, both of which didn't make it to ripeness because the flowers had been fertilized too late in the season due to lack of bees.

When I realized why it wasn't making squash, I got a small paint brush and tried to pollinate the plant myself. And, while 2 of the flowers turned into squash, again, they weren't pollinated quick enough to mature.

 

[Billy_Bob]

It's not so much the growing season that I'm concerned about as it is the bees disappearing.

Last year? I had a squash plant that sprouted in my front yard. Probably a seed that was left by the birds, so I let it grow, wanting to see what kind of plant it was.

And, I took really good care of it, watered it every day and waited to see what it grew. All I really got out of the plant was a whole bunch of blooms, and only 2 squash, both of which didn't make it to ripeness because the flowers had been fertilized too late in the season due to lack of bees.

When I realized why it wasn't making squash, I got a small paint brush and tried to pollinate the plant myself. And, while 2 of the flowers turned into squash, again, they weren't pollinated quick enough to mature.

Bee's do not go out in the cool air and then when they do go out they are starved, eating the food they were going to collect. Cold has a very devastating effect on bee's.

 

[abu afak]

LOL
Two Recent Articles from my home page: Wall Street Journal.

A Warming Climate Brings New Crops to Frigid Zones - WSJ
https://www.wsj.com › articles › a-warming-climate-brings-new-crops-to-frig...
Nov 25, 2018 - 'We're seeing crops grown in places they've never grown before.' ... The new prospect of warmer-weather crops is helping lift farmland prices, ...
You've visited this page 2 times. Last visit: 8/17/19

Europe's Winemakers Break With Tradition as Temperatures Rise ...
https://www.wsj.com › World › Europe

Aug 31, 2019 - Winemakers are harvesting grapes more than a month ahead of schedule, ... Hotter temperatures that allow grapes to bloom earlier also leave them ... Philippe Bardet, whose vineyards lie in Saint-Émilion, says he is no hurry to adopt ... WSJ News Exclusive |

".... Researchers across the region are investigating whether it’s possible to take advantage of Climate Change by shifting more wine production to Northern Europe, but they are also running into hurdles. Climate instability across the continent has heightened uncertainty over quality and annual yield.
[.....]
Early Harvest
Rising temperatures are causing grapes to ripen earlier, accelerating harvest times.

Hotter temperatures that allow grapes to bloom earlier also leave them exposed to spring frosts, which tend to hang around longer in northern latitudes. Dramatic swings in temperature also create conditions for fungal rot, pests and drought.

Grapes that ripen more quickly in the Warming weather can also develop higher levels of sugar and alcohol, overpowering their acidity, a crucial flavor profile in nearly all wines. Across Italy, alcohol levels have risen a percentage point in the last 30 years, according to national agricultural group Coldiretti. In some regions, classics like Chianti and Barolo have seen even larger spikes.

As a consequence, the harvest schedule has crept up by about a month in Italy, Germany and France, from October to early September or late August......."
​

`

 

[percysunshine]

Everyone should run and hide in a cave.

 

[irosie91]

Well, I'll be having fried green tomatoes tonight, so.

It's my favorite part of the end of the season.

good for pickles too.

 

[Sunsettommy]

LOL
Two Recent Articles from my home page: Wall Street Journal.

A Warming Climate Brings New Crops to Frigid Zones - WSJ
https://www.wsj.com › articles › a-warming-climate-brings-new-crops-to-frig...
Nov 25, 2018 - 'We're seeing crops grown in places they've never grown before.' ... The new prospect of warmer-weather crops is helping lift farmland prices, ...
You've visited this page 2 times. Last visit: 8/17/19

Europe's Winemakers Break With Tradition as Temperatures Rise ...
https://www.wsj.com › World › Europe

Aug 31, 2019 - Winemakers are harvesting grapes more than a month ahead of schedule, ... Hotter temperatures that allow grapes to bloom earlier also leave them ... Philippe Bardet, whose vineyards lie in Saint-Émilion, says he is no hurry to adopt ... WSJ News Exclusive |


`

Another cut/paste post, who skirted post one in his desperate deflection to a website that requires a subscription to read the articles. One that doesn't address the link in post one at all.

Growing Degree Days are NOT the same as length of growing season!

You made clear that you are a confused mensa boy.

 

[abu afak]

Another cut/paste post, who skirted post one in his desperate deflection to a website that requires a subscription to read the articles. One that doesn't address the link in post one at all.

Growing Degree Days are NOT the same as length of growing season!

You made clear that you are a confused mensa boy.

LOL
It's become so hot we don't even care about season length...

and My Stats are 30+ year stats Not 3 year Recent temporary Solar Minimum Stats.
(I warned you clowns about using these shorter cycle things as long term "cooling')

If you want I can lend you 40 IQ points and we can have a discussion of equals?



`

 

[Billy_Bob]

LOL
Two Recent Articles from my home page: Wall Street Journal.

A Warming Climate Brings New Crops to Frigid Zones - WSJ
https://www.wsj.com › articles › a-warming-climate-brings-new-crops-to-frig...
Nov 25, 2018 - 'We're seeing crops grown in places they've never grown before.' ... The new prospect of warmer-weather crops is helping lift farmland prices, ...
You've visited this page 2 times. Last visit: 8/17/19

Europe's Winemakers Break With Tradition as Temperatures Rise ...
https://www.wsj.com › World › Europe

Aug 31, 2019 - Winemakers are harvesting grapes more than a month ahead of schedule, ... Hotter temperatures that allow grapes to bloom earlier also leave them ... Philippe Bardet, whose vineyards lie in Saint-Émilion, says he is no hurry to adopt ... WSJ News Exclusive |

".... Researchers across the region are investigating whether it’s possible to take advantage of Climate Change by shifting more wine production to Northern Europe, but they are also running into hurdles. Climate instability across the continent has heightened uncertainty over quality and annual yield.
[.....]
Early Harvest
Rising temperatures are causing grapes to ripen earlier, accelerating harvest times.

Hotter temperatures that allow grapes to bloom earlier also leave them exposed to spring frosts, which tend to hang around longer in northern latitudes. Dramatic swings in temperature also create conditions for fungal rot, pests and drought.

Grapes that ripen more quickly in the Warming weather can also develop higher levels of sugar and alcohol, overpowering their acidity, a crucial flavor profile in nearly all wines. Across Italy, alcohol levels have risen a percentage point in the last 30 years, according to national agricultural group Coldiretti. In some regions, classics like Chianti and Barolo have seen even larger spikes.

As a consequence, the harvest schedule has crept up by about a month in Italy, Germany and France, from October to early September or late August......."
​

`

I just posted EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE of season shortening over the last two years and you post up model conjecture... No wonder your easily fooled. You think fantasy is more reliable than empirically observed evidence.

Not only is it cooling but the seasons are shortening.... And you believe the failed models... Priceless...

 

[Sunsettommy]

Another cut/paste post, who skirted post one in his desperate deflection to a website that requires a subscription to read the articles. One that doesn't address the link in post one at all.

Growing Degree Days are NOT the same as length of growing season!

You made clear that you are a confused mensa boy.

LOL
It's become so hot we don't even care about season length...

and My Stats are 30+ year stats Not 3 year Recent temporary Solar Minimum Stats.
(I warned you clowns about using these shorter cycle things as long term "cooling')

If you want I can lend you 40 IQ points and we can have a discussion of equals?



`

Growing Degree Days are NOT the same as length of growing season!

You made clear that you are a confused mensa boy.

You are making clear you are too stupid to understand what Post ONE is about, you have yet to notice the difference that I have pointed out twice.

This is you in the wrong place:

 

[abu afak]

I just posted EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE of season shortening over the last two years and you post up model conjecture... No wonder your easily fooled. You think fantasy is more reliable than empirically observed evidence.

As I just explained to SunsetTony, I warned you guys about using these Short Term Solar Minimum Stats as some sort of argument against AGW.
It's NOT.

Note the articles I posted are way LONGER Trends, ie 30+ year earlier Grape Harvests throughout Europe due to Heat.

And as in Canada, moving North to avoid it and to plant Crops (like Corn) that were not viable but for Warming.
That takes Length of Season as well as Heat.

You Clowns should be posting in the Conspiracy section.

They may have genetic modification available on IQ in a decade or two.
Maybe you can try chiming in then.
bye.


`

 

[Billy_Bob]

Another cut/paste post, who skirted post one in his desperate deflection to a website that requires a subscription to read the articles. One that doesn't address the link in post one at all.

Growing Degree Days are NOT the same as length of growing season!

You made clear that you are a confused mensa boy.

LOL
It's become so hot we don't even care about season length...

and My Stats are 30+ year stats Not 3 year Recent temporary Solar Minimum Stats.
(I warned you clowns about using these shorter cycle things as long term "cooling')

If you want I can lend you 40 IQ points and we can have a discussion of equals?



`

Growing Degree Days are NOT the same as length of growing season!

You made clear that you are a confused mensa boy.

You are making clear you are too stupid to understand what Post ONE is about, you have yet to notice the difference that I have pointed out twice.

This is you in the wrong place:

From first day to last day above freezing at night is the season. Growing days are the number of days a plant can grow (usually above 50 degrees at night) once we dip below this temperature, plants stop growing and foods do not mature, they rot and go to seed.

Growing days dictates the size and quality of food. Our substantial loss of these days in the last two years is stunning...

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

I noticed that too. It's been a cooler than usual summer.

And yet July 2019 was the hottest month ever recorded by us.

 

[Billy_Bob]

I just posted EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE of season shortening over the last two years and you post up model conjecture... No wonder your easily fooled. You think fantasy is more reliable than empirically observed evidence.

As I just explained to SunsetTony, I warned you guys about using these Short Term Solar Minimum Stats as some sort of argument against AGW.
It's NOT.

Note the articles I posted are way Longer Trends, ie 30+ year earlier Grape Harvests throughout Europe due to Heat.
And as in Canada, moving North to avoid it and to plant Crops (like Corn) that were not viable but for Warming.

You Clowns should be posting in the Conspiracy section.

They may have genetic modification available on IQ in a decade or two.
Maybe you can try chiming in then.
bye.


`

You have no clue, do you mensa boy.

You post anything that you think proves your deception...

 

[Billy_Bob]

I noticed that too. It's been a cooler than usual summer.

And yet July 2019 was the hottest month ever recorded by us.

LOL....... BULL SHzIT? It was 4th in the 37 year long record...

 

[Sunsettommy]

I just posted EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE of season shortening over the last two years and you post up model conjecture... No wonder your easily fooled. You think fantasy is more reliable than empirically observed evidence.

As I just explained to SunsetTony, I warned you guys about using these Short Term Solar Minimum Stats as some sort of argument against AGW.
It's NOT.

Note the articles I posted are way Longer Trends, ie 30+ year earlier Grape Harvests throughout Europe due to Heat.
And as in Canada, moving North to avoid it and to plant Crops (like Corn) that were not viable but for Warming.

You Clowns should be posting in the Conspiracy section.
`

You are a terrible reader, since post one FOCUSES on GROWING DEGREE DAYS, you have not addressed this at all. You bring up temperature trends and long term harvest rates.

HINT:

"Growing degree days (GDD) are a measure of heat accumulation used by horticulturists, gardeners, and farmers to predict plant and animal development rates such as the date that a flower will bloom, an insect will emerge from dormancy, or a crop will reach maturity.

In the absence of extreme conditions such as unseasonal drought or disease, plants grow in a cumulative stepwise manner which is strongly influenced by the ambient temperature. In other words, GDD values provide a best case outlook as to plants' pace to maturity."

=============================

Understanding Growing Degree Days

Understanding growing degree-days

Growing degree-days, or heat units, help growers and researchers track the development of plants and pests.

August 25, 2017 - Author: Bob Battel, Michigan State University Extension

Growing degree-days (GGDs), while not perfect, are a more reliable method of predicting crop and insect development than calendar days. Differing threshold temperatures and beginning accumulation dates are used to determine accumulated heat units for different crops. For example, a cool-season crop like alfalfa uses a threshold temperature of 41 degrees Fahrenheit and a starting date of March 1, whereas a warm-season crop like corn uses a threshold temperature of 50 F and the planting date as the starting date.

The threshold, or base temperature, is the temperature under which no significant crop development is expected. That is, it is assumed alfalfa does not grow at temperatures less than 41 F and corn does not grow at temperatures less than 50 F. Also, an upper-end cutoff temperature is used in the calculation. Crops don’t grow any more at temperatures greater than 86 F than they do at temperatures less than 86 F. Keep that in mind later when we talk about calculating GDDs.

There are two methods for calculating GDD. The first method is simpler and the second method involves higher level mathematics, but is more accurate, especially at cooler temperatures.