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"It's true they welcome us there, yes sir," Gen. John Campbell told the Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). "Overwhelmingly, the Afghans support the coalition and want to continue to have that -- that continued support," he later told Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.). Campbell said Afghanistan's President Ghani has "asked NATO and the U.S. to provide some flexibility in our planning" to support Ghani's fledgling government amid growing threats from insurgents. That would mean leaving more coalition troops in Afghanistan than the current planning calls for. "He (Ghani) has asserted that a sustained coalition and U.S. presence provides actual and psychological stability to the country as a new government solidifies," Campbell told the Senate Armed Services Committee.
But later in the hearing, Campbell was asked about the "brain drain" and the flight of "human capital" out of Afghanistan: "Sir, there's been a lot of reports of a lot of Afghans that are trying to leave the country," Campbell told Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.). "The refugee issues, going into Europe, so -- and a lot of those are Afghans. They're trying to leave. "Both President Ghani and Dr. Abdullah have reached out to the younger generation, asking them to stay, to continue to work in Afghanistan. And so there -- there has been, for lack of better term, a drain on the human capital piece there that I know they want to keep in. "The future of Afghanistan is -- is two things, I believe. It's the Afghan security forces, and then it is this younger generation of Afghans that are tired of -- of 35, 40-plus years of war."
Blumenthal told Campbell, "And one can hardly blame them, given the impact on their futures -- economic and social and family. And so, longer-term, the success of Afghanistan...as a country is really dependent upon the political factors and the social and economic factors that are hopefully supported and promoted by the American presence there as well." In 2014, President Obama pulled tens of thousands of American troops out of Afghanistan, ending the combat phase and beginning a new train-and-advise mission, along with counter-terrorism operations.
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"As the upsurge in insurgent violence in the Northern Helmand (Province) and Kunduz shows, Afghanistan is again at a decisive point," Campbell told the Senate Armed Services Committee. He said President Obama "is well aware of the tenuous security situation. "And I also appreciate that he has many other global issues to weigh as he considers my recommendations. My role is to provide him my best military advice, based upon my assessment of the conditions on the ground." Campbell did not say what military options he is presenting to the president for 2016 and beyond, but he did indicate that the current plan to reduce drastically reduce the U.S. troop level next year needs to change. "If we fail in this worthwile mission, Afghanistan will once again become a sanctuary for al Qaeda and other terrorists bent on attacking our interests and our citizens abroad and at home," Campell warned.
Campbell also said Islamic State fighters would rapidly expand "if a vacuum arose" in Afghanistan -- sowing unrest through Central and South Asia and potentially targeting the U.S. homeland. "The hard work and the sacrifices of countless coalition military personnel and civilians over the last 14 years have created the conditions in which Afghans can and are now taking responsibility for their own security and governance," Campbell said. And while the Afghans welcome the opportunity to shape their destiny -- "they still desire, need and deserve our assistance." Committee Chairman John McCain (R-Ariz.) noted that the administration's current plan calls for the U.S. troop presence to drop from its current 10,000 level to an embassy-based security operation only 1,000 in 2016.
McCain asked if conditions on the ground warrant a change to the current planning for another troop drawdown: "Based on conditions on the ground, based on the transitions I've talked about, I do believe that we have to provide our senior leadership options different than the current plan that we're going with. Absolutely," Campbell agreed. "The current plan right now...is embassy-based presence. As I take a look at conditions on the ground...when the president made that decision, it did not take into account the change over the last two years. And so the courses of action that I have provided to my senior leadership provide options to adjust that."
'Uneven performance' of Afghan fighters expected to persist
Obama had originally planned to pull out all but a small, embassy-based U.S. military presence by the end of next year, a timeline coinciding with the final weeks of his presidency. But military leaders argued for months that the Afghans needed additional assistance and support from the U.S. to beat back a resurgent Taliban and hold onto gains made over the last 14 years of American bloodshed and billions of dollars in aid. The president was to announce the changes Thursday morning from the White House. Officials said he would outline plans to maintain the current force of 9,800 troops in Afghanistan through most of next year, then draw down to 5,500 troops in 2017, at a pace still to be determined by commanders.
The officials previewed the decisions on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly ahead of the president. U.S. officials have been hinting at the policy shift for weeks, noting that conditions on the ground in Afghanistan have changed since Obama's initial decision on a sharper troop withdrawal timeline was made more than two years ago. The White House has also been buoyed by having a more reliable partner in Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who succeeded the mercurial Hamid Karzai last year. "The narrative that we're leaving Afghanistan is self-defeating," Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Wednesday during a speech at the Association of the U.S. Army. "We're not, we can't and to do so would not be to take advantage of the success we've had to date."
While officials said the Afghan policy had been under review for several months, Obama's decision to leave more forces in Afghanistan than initially envisioned was reinforced when Taliban fighters took control of the key northern city of Kunduz late last month, prompting a protracted battle with Afghan forces on the ground, supported by U.S. airstrikes. During the fighting, a U.S. airstrike hit a hospital, killing 22 people, including 12 Doctors Without Borders staff and 10 patients. Beyond the recent security troubles in Afghanistan, U.S. commanders have also expressed concern about Islamic State fighters moving into the country and gaining recruits from within the Taliban. The troops staying in Afghanistan beyond next year will continue to focus on counterterrorism missions and training and advising Afghan security forces, the officials said. They will be based in Kabul and Bagram Air Field, as well as bases in Jalalabad and Kandahar.
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Carter also said that the U.S. will have to adapt to a "new reality" of an aggressive Russia that will involve prolonged containment and confrontation in Europe and the Mideast. "It's a very different playbook, and again, I wish we didn't have to do that" to counter Russian President Vladimir Putin, he said. "I do think that we are committed to an enduring presence in Afghanistan that makes good on the tremendous effort" that U.S. troops have invested in the country since 2001, Carter said in response to questions at the at the annual exposition and meeting of the Association of the U.S. Army at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington, D.C. "It's not a question of whether, but how to continue the mission in Afghanistan," Carter said, "and last week it became clear that our NATO allies feel the same way, as many of my counterparts made a point of re-affirming their commitment."
Carter said that the Army will play a vital role in the continuing mission in Afghanistan to counter al Qaida and the growing presence of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS. "No one can do this better than the Army, which has learned a lot about counter-terrorism operations and local force training over the course of two wars, and is best equipped to establish a lasting and effective counter-terrorism platform in Afghanistan," he said. President Obama's current plan would have all U.S. troops out of Afghanistan by early 2017 with the exception of what would essentially be an embassy presence of about 1,000. However, Carter noted that Obama has already altered the plan, deciding last March to slow the withdrawal rate to keep 9,800 troops in Afghanistan through the summer fighting season at the request of Army Gen. John Campbell, the U.S. commander in Afghanistan.
In congressional testimony earlier this month, Campbell said he had presented Obama with several options, but it was his own judgment that U.S. troops should remain. Campbell did not discuss numbers, but White House officials reportedly are considering a force of about 5,000. Carter said that the Army would have a central role in a revamped strategy to contain Russia. "That's why we deployed the 173rd Airborne to train Ukrainian security forces under Atlantic Resolve, and that's why additional units of the 173rd trained alongside our allies in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland," he said. "It's why we've moved Stryker units and brigade-sized elements from the 2nd Cavalry through 1,800 kilometers of Eastern Europe alongside our allies from Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary," he said. "And that's why we'll continue to need the Army's posture and presence in Europe, reassuring allies and reminding adversaries of our unmatched capabilities, strength, reach and readiness," Carter said.
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