Governor Crist Leads Rubio In Florida

Crist leads by 4.6 points in the realclear average.

Happy now?

The margin of error is generally higher than that. The poll results are pretty meaningless at that level.

Election polls mean 'if the election were held today'. And when you look at final poll averages, they are very accurate compared to the actual election held. A 5% lead in the average, if the election were held today, has an extremely high probability of picking the winner.

Only if you poll likely voters...

It really doesn't matter how people who may not vote would vote...
 
Polls for anything this far out are pretty meaningless unless you have a wide margin in favor of the "unlikely" candidate. (ie if a challenger is ahead of an incumbent by more than 10 points, that would be significant). Short of that, don't wake me up until after Labor Day when the non-politicos finally realize there's supposed to be an election sometime soon.
 
Well, one thing that stands out in all this is that the poor Democratic is toast...:lol:

Kinda funny to watch the left pulling for a former Republican, who untill months ago, was the spawn of Satan....lol
 
Okay, so it's a narrow lead or a dead heat for Crist at the very least. Wasn't this race suppose to be one of those tea party races where everyone was sick of the incumbent? Shouldn't Rubio be ahead by 10 points at this point?
 
Rasmussen is the only poll I know of that always screens for likely voters, rather than just people with a pulse.

Uh, the Florida Chamber of Commerce poll in mid June screened for likely voters and had Crist up by 11 points.

Outlier.... Isn't that what you would say?

Rasmussen is the only pollster who has had Rubio up since March, and if you throw out the CC at the high end and Rasmussen at the low end, you still end up at about a 5% lead for Crist.

I don't know why anyone would be surprised. Florida is a centrist state, Crist is a centrist, Crist has a 53% approval rating as governor.

It's hardly a shocker that he would be leading.
 
Rasmussen is the only pollster who has had Rubio up since March, and if you throw out the CC at the high end and Rasmussen at the low end, you still end up at about a 5% lead for Crist.

I don't know why anyone would be surprised. Florida is a centrist state, Crist is a centrist, Crist has a 53% approval rating as governor.

It's hardly a shocker that he would be leading.

Wasn't Rasmussen the one that had Rand Paul up by almost 20 points at one point while everyone else had it near a dead heat? Then all of a sudden Rand lost like 13+ points between two polls done by them.

I do recall posting a thread about that..
 
Okay, so it's a narrow lead or a dead heat for Crist at the very least. Wasn't this race suppose to be one of those tea party races where everyone was sick of the incumbent? Shouldn't Rubio be ahead by 10 points at this point?
According to whom? Links please....
 
According to whom? Links please....

:rolleyes: Note the question marks. The people suppose to be sick of the incumbent is the attitude of many members on USMB reflected in various posts. The 2nd question is my own question.
 
Uh, the Florida Chamber of Commerce poll in mid June screened for likely voters and had Crist up by 11 points.

Outlier.... Isn't that what you would say?

Rasmussen is the only pollster who has had Rubio up since March, and if you throw out the CC at the high end and Rasmussen at the low end, you still end up at about a 5% lead for Crist.

I don't know why anyone would be surprised. Florida is a centrist state, Crist is a centrist, Crist has a 53% approval rating as governor.

It's hardly a shocker that he would be leading.

Some of those polls are months old...

He should be leading by more if that were the case, then, but these show it's pretty much a statistical dead heat...

Sorry, still too early and there's nothing to be gleaned to tell us this far out who will win....
 
According to whom? Links please....

:rolleyes: Note the question marks. The people suppose to be sick of the incumbent is the attitude of many members on USMB reflected in various posts. The 2nd question is my own question.

:rolleyes:

Ahhh, so you're just using sweeping generalizations...

Well then, yes, this means that there is no incumbent backlash whatsoever and everyone should be safe...

:rolleyes:
 
:rolleyes:

Ahhh, so you're just using sweeping generalizations...

Well then, yes, this means that there is no incumbent backlash whatsoever and everyone should be safe...

:rolleyes:

Sweeping generalizations? Not quite. I never said there is no incumbent backlash. My point is if this backlash is so strong, shouldn't the Democrat AND Crist be losing by large numbers?
 
:rolleyes:

Ahhh, so you're just using sweeping generalizations...

Well then, yes, this means that there is no incumbent backlash whatsoever and everyone should be safe...

:rolleyes:

Sweeping generalizations? Not quite. I never said there is no incumbent backlash. My point is if this backlash is so strong, shouldn't the Democrat AND Crist be losing by large numbers?

One would think....
 
:rolleyes:

Ahhh, so you're just using sweeping generalizations...

Well then, yes, this means that there is no incumbent backlash whatsoever and everyone should be safe...

:rolleyes:

Sweeping generalizations? Not quite. I never said there is no incumbent backlash. My point is if this backlash is so strong, shouldn't the Democrat AND Crist be losing by large numbers?

The democrat IS losing by large numbers...

The other two are in a statistical dead heat according to som recent and old polls months before the election where a Demoratic opponent has not even been selected...

I don't know how you can come up with equating countrywide backlash (which only a fool would say doesn't exist) with this one race....
 
The democrat IS losing by large numbers...

The other two are in a statistical dead heat according to som recent and old polls months before the election where a Demoratic opponent has not even been selected...

I don't know how you can come up with equating countrywide backlash (which only a fool would say doesn't exist) with this one race....

According to Reuters, the numbers really don't change with either opponent. If the Dems were smart, they would see it was hopeless and throw all support behind Crist.
 
The democrat IS losing by large numbers...

The other two are in a statistical dead heat according to som recent and old polls months before the election where a Demoratic opponent has not even been selected...

I don't know how you can come up with equating countrywide backlash (which only a fool would say doesn't exist) with this one race....

According to Reuters, the numbers really don't change with either opponent. If the Dems were smart, they would see it was hopeless and throw all support behind Crist.

Well, that's just Reuters... RCP has a bit of a swing with each...

In essence you're asking the Democratics to ignore their party selection process and get behind the man who was so recently a Republican just to keep the conservative out... I doubt they'd go for that...
 

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