Good Senate Polling Recently

47 to 45 (GOP to Dem)

Red: Arkansas, Alaska, Georgia
Blue: Colorado, IA, New Hampshire, North Carolina
Independent: Kansas (Dorothy brought magic )

I think Orman will caucus with the pubs, tell Cruz "you, dude, are an asshole) and force McConnell to the center.

So once again Boehner gets to rein in the few TPM yahoos that will be left in his caucus.
But the pubs will surely get SD,WV and MT. That already puts them at 48 I think. If they get AK, AR and GA as you say then that puts them over 50. They might get KY as well which will put them over. Angus King said he will caucus with pubs and I suspect Orman will too. That gives them majority by a wider margin. Any other surprise states like NH, CO or IA puts them well over. Debates are coming up so polling after that will tell the bigger story.

GA and KY aren't pickups...they're defending the seats.

King hasn't said he'll caucus with the GOP, he said he'll caucus with the majority. Orman and King are both left of center (particularly Orman surprisingly...). I'm finding it hard to believe they'll caucus with a party they have so little in common with.

Currently the most likely route for the GOP to get a majority is SD> WV> MT> LA> AR> IA in order of likeliness to win.

Those six states are what the GOP should be banking on for Nov 4th. The reason CO and AK are harder then IA is the incumbents in CO and AK have better staying power then an open seat like IA.
 
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EarthLink - Business News

Surge of hiring cuts US jobless rate to 5.9 pct.

WASHINGTON (AP) — In a burst of hiring, U.S. employers added 248,000 jobs in September and helped drive down the unemployment rate to 5.9 percent, the lowest since July 2008.
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the "5.9" is a bell ringer - best since 2008.

the tide for Nov 4th may have reached the high water mark for the Rs ... and a few positive news events from the Middle East just might make the midterms a happy days are here again for the democrats.

if the candidates are able to translate a new advantage into voter approval and is reflected by actual voting.

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Those are summer jobs being counted by federal government and put out to support Democrats in trouble. When your benefits run out after 6 months you ate no longer counted as unemployed. It's a bullshit statistic.
 
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... It's a bullshit statistic.


do you think the books were cooked to drop it below 6%, and gravy there will not be another report before the next election ???

for the Ds at least they are fighting back, the Rs make a habit of lying to win elections only to turn their cheeks afterwards ... all's fair in politics and war, just do not get caught 2014 - Citizens United.

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I was going to make this a separate thread but seems appropriate here:

What If the GOP Wins the Senate?


Well, according to this Boston Globe piece, they're not exactly getting a great deal. It states it's going to be a “poisoned chalice” for them. It also states the GOP doesn't have an agenda and I have to agree with that. All McConnell seems to be promising is more bills to cut spending and reducing government – which I certainly agree with.


Read for yourselves @ Would control of the Senate be bad for the GOP - Opinion - The Boston Globe
 
I was going to make this a separate thread but seems appropriate here:

What If the GOP Wins the Senate?


Well, according to this Boston Globe piece, they're not exactly getting a great deal. It states it's going to be a “poisoned chalice” for them. It also states the GOP doesn't have an agenda and I have to agree with that. All McConnell seems to be promising is more bills to cut spending and reducing government – which I certainly agree with.


Read for yourselves @ Would control of the Senate be bad for the GOP - Opinion - The Boston Globe

Everything mentioned in that article falls under the category of self inflicted wounds. None of the damage would be coming from the left. It would be a war between the far right and the extreme far right. The Dems will just be sitting back and passing the popcorn.

So yes, the article is correct that it will be bad for the GOP to have complete control of Congress.

The only possible positive is if a SCOTUS seat opens up. They would essentially have the power to block any moderate appointee even though they would not be able to force Obama to pick another Scalia or Thomas. Essentially there would be a stalemate and it could even suit the Dems politically to have the GOP rejecting nominee after nominee. Even that situation might turn our badly for them and it will be a constant reminder of the dysfunctionality on the right.
 
I live in North Carolina Don't know whose being polled but it just isn't going to happen for the obama sock puppet.
That's what we call her around here.

There hasn't been a poll that shows Tillis in the lead in almost a month. There's multiple polls showing Hagan leading +5% or more. Not saying it's a sure fire fact that Hagan will be reelected, but the momentum is definitely in her favor.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Hagan

Landrieu and Pryor on the other hand....
 
I live in North Carolina Don't know whose being polled but it just isn't going to happen for the obama sock puppet.
That's what we call her around here.

There hasn't been a poll that shows Tillis in the lead in almost a month. There's multiple polls showing Hagan leading +5% or more. Not saying it's a sure fire fact that Hagan will be reelected, but the momentum is definitely in her favor.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Hagan

Landrieu and Pryor on the other hand....

One way or the other the GOP will end up with the 6 seats that they need.

What they won't see is a wave in my opinion. That is a bridge too far given the nature of the candidates they have running. Too much baggage is stopping them from having the momentum they need for a wave and to date there has been no outside force such as existed in 2010 either.

Cook pretty much nailed it when he said that off year elections come in 3 versions for the party holding the Whitehouse. Bad, really bad and really, really bad. As things stand at present the Dems are only looking at a bad outcome of losing 6 seats.

That could end up being a positive for them in 2016 and result in retaining the Whitehouse and regaining the Senate.
 
I live in North Carolina Don't know whose being polled but it just isn't going to happen for the obama sock puppet.
That's what we call her around here.

There hasn't been a poll that shows Tillis in the lead in almost a month. There's multiple polls showing Hagan leading +5% or more. Not saying it's a sure fire fact that Hagan will be reelected, but the momentum is definitely in her favor.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Hagan

Landrieu and Pryor on the other hand....
I on't give a fuck about any polls you are talking about I live here unlike you. Hagan isn't going to win.
 
I live in North Carolina Don't know whose being polled but it just isn't going to happen for the obama sock puppet.
That's what we call her around here.

There hasn't been a poll that shows Tillis in the lead in almost a month. There's multiple polls showing Hagan leading +5% or more. Not saying it's a sure fire fact that Hagan will be reelected, but the momentum is definitely in her favor.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Hagan

Landrieu and Pryor on the other hand....
I on't give a fuck about any polls you are talking about I live here unlike you. Hagan isn't going to win.


You don't have to like anything you don't want to, but the data is out there for all to see.

Remember the last time the GOPers said all the polls were wrong? Yepp, in 2012, they called the polls "skewed". It ends up that the polling aggregates were right and PPP (D), which somes from your state, was by far the best pollster of 2012, bar none.
 
I live in North Carolina Don't know whose being polled but it just isn't going to happen for the obama sock puppet.
That's what we call her around here.

There hasn't been a poll that shows Tillis in the lead in almost a month. There's multiple polls showing Hagan leading +5% or more. Not saying it's a sure fire fact that Hagan will be reelected, but the momentum is definitely in her favor.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Hagan

Landrieu and Pryor on the other hand....
I on't give a fuck about any polls you are talking about I live here unlike you. Hagan isn't going to win.


You don't have to like anything you don't want to, but the data is out there for all to see.

Remember the last time the GOPers said all the polls were wrong? Yepp, in 2012, they called the polls "skewed". It ends up that the polling aggregates were right and PPP (D), which somes from your state, was by far the best pollster of 2012, bar none.
It has nothing to do with liking or not liking poll data you dumb ass It has to do with actually dealing with people of MY god damn state.
 
I live in North Carolina Don't know whose being polled but it just isn't going to happen for the obama sock puppet.
That's what we call her around here.

There hasn't been a poll that shows Tillis in the lead in almost a month. There's multiple polls showing Hagan leading +5% or more. Not saying it's a sure fire fact that Hagan will be reelected, but the momentum is definitely in her favor.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Hagan

Landrieu and Pryor on the other hand....
I on't give a fuck about any polls you are talking about I live here unlike you. Hagan isn't going to win.


You don't have to like anything you don't want to, but the data is out there for all to see.

Remember the last time the GOPers said all the polls were wrong? Yepp, in 2012, they called the polls "skewed". It ends up that the polling aggregates were right and PPP (D), which somes from your state, was by far the best pollster of 2012, bar none.
It has nothing to do with liking or not liking poll data you dumb ass It has to do with actually dealing with people of MY god damn state.


You are not the only person who lives in North Carolina. There are about 9.7 mllion other residents of NC other than yourself.

Oh, and you might do well to realize that you are posting in Zone 2 when you post on this thread, and not in the FZ. Think about it.
 
I live in North Carolina Don't know whose being polled but it just isn't going to happen for the obama sock puppet.
That's what we call her around here.

There hasn't been a poll that shows Tillis in the lead in almost a month. There's multiple polls showing Hagan leading +5% or more. Not saying it's a sure fire fact that Hagan will be reelected, but the momentum is definitely in her favor.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Hagan

Landrieu and Pryor on the other hand....

One way or the other the GOP will end up with the 6 seats that they need.

What they won't see is a wave in my opinion. That is a bridge too far given the nature of the candidates they have running. Too much baggage is stopping them from having the momentum they need for a wave and to date there has been no outside force such as existed in 2010 either.

Cook pretty much nailed it when he said that off year elections come in 3 versions for the party holding the Whitehouse. Bad, really bad and really, really bad. As things stand at present the Dems are only looking at a bad outcome of losing 6 seats.

That could end up being a positive for them in 2016 and result in retaining the Whitehouse and regaining the Senate.

Yes, the GOP will make it's goal of 6 seat net gain, which probably means gaining 7 seats and losing the one seat in Kansas.

As the polarization of our Union continues to get worse, I suspect that "waves" will get smaller and smaller.

It's hard to imagine, but both percentually and in terms of raw numbers, the turnover in both the HOR and the Senate in 2010 was child's play compared to mid-terms pre-nuclear age.

In 2010, the GOP picked up 63 seats in the HOR, making for a +127 shift, which was 29.20% of the HOR.

In 1865, it was a +39% shift, in 1875. it was a 68% shift (+199), in 1883 it was a 32% shift, in 1891, it was a 48% shirt (+160), in 1895, it was a 38% shift, in 1923, it was a 34% shift, in 1933, it was a 46% shift (+198), in 1939, it was a 35% shift (+151), in 1949, it was a 34% shift....

Google Sheets - create and edit spreadsheets online for free.


Similar story in the US Senate.
 
I live in North Carolina Don't know whose being polled but it just isn't going to happen for the obama sock puppet.
That's what we call her around here.

There hasn't been a poll that shows Tillis in the lead in almost a month. There's multiple polls showing Hagan leading +5% or more. Not saying it's a sure fire fact that Hagan will be reelected, but the momentum is definitely in her favor.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Hagan

Landrieu and Pryor on the other hand....
I on't give a fuck about any polls you are talking about I live here unlike you. Hagan isn't going to win.


You don't have to like anything you don't want to, but the data is out there for all to see.

Remember the last time the GOPers said all the polls were wrong? Yepp, in 2012, they called the polls "skewed". It ends up that the polling aggregates were right and PPP (D), which somes from your state, was by far the best pollster of 2012, bar none.
It has nothing to do with liking or not liking poll data you dumb ass It has to do with actually dealing with people of MY god damn state.


You are not the only person who lives in North Carolina. There are about 9.7 mllion other residents of NC other than yourself.

Oh, and you might do well to realize that you are posting in Zone 2 when you post on this thread, and not in the FZ. Think about it.
I'm not the only person that lives in North Carolina, but unlike you I talk with the people of my state I have people in most counties that keep me informed
 
Yes, the GOP will make it's goal of 6 seat net gain, which probably means gaining 7 seats and losing the one seat in Kansas.


that probability's margin has narrowed recently where the margin for error could make a difference in the closing weeks for several states ... where just less than 6 is a victory for the democrats - probability has increased.

example: GOP Senate candidate I spent most of my career outsourcing TheHill

GOP Senate candidate: I 'spent most of my career' outsourcing
.
 
It should also be noticed that right about this time, many pollsters move from RV models to LV models. The Right loves to claim that RV models favor the DEMS too much and that LV models are right, and yet, in 2012, esp. in the Presidential polling, the LV models mostly had a mathematical bias offf way to the RIGHT, away from the actual results as they happen.

It has been my experience in 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011 (WI special elections), 2012 and 2013 (two big gubernatorial races) that LV is not necessarily more accurate and that the "truth" often lies directly between RV and LV.

So, part of the shift we saw starting to happen last week is due to a shift in polling methodology, but most people do not realize this. Fortunately for me, since I clocked every single poll for 2008 and 2012 on the presidential level, I can prove my statements.
 

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