Global warming? Nope. Just normal weather patterns.

[DavidS]

The middle and end of next week (and maybe longer) are setting up to be quite warm to hot once again for much of the Eastern U.S.... with widespread 80s and 90s expected.

This round looks more humid, so it should be more noticeable. And Midwest should be more involved as well.

The lastest 12z Euro is flat out "Hot" for the East Coast later next week... showing a +20ºC bubble at 850mb centered around Newark next Thursday! Check out this pretty map from MDA-EarthSat...

Models agree rather well on this... although the Euro has it the strongest and longest. Summer starting early this year!

The models are forecasting this because of an early season Bermuda High and -PDO. This has NOTHING TO DO WITH GLOBAL WARMING! This is NORMAL WEATHER.

 

[k2skier]

The middle and end of next week (and maybe longer) are setting up to be quite warm to hot once again for much of the Eastern U.S.... with widespread 80s and 90s expected.

This round looks more humid, so it should be more noticeable. And Midwest should be more involved as well.

The lastest 12z Euro is flat out "Hot" for the East Coast later next week... showing a +20ºC bubble at 850mb centered around Newark next Thursday! Check out this pretty map from MDA-EarthSat...

Models agree rather well on this... although the Euro has it the strongest and longest. Summer starting early this year!

The models are forecasting this because of an early season Bermuda High and -PDO. This has NOTHING TO DO WITH GLOBAL WARMING! This is NORMAL WEATHER.

Everyones entitled to their opinion...

It is a major influence due to the planet warming, how much is AGW is the question.

When one of the "fuels" for our weather engine is changed, temperature/heat, it will alter the dynamics of our planets weather. When and how much will this effect our overall climate, only time will tell.

 

[DavidS]

The middle and end of next week (and maybe longer) are setting up to be quite warm to hot once again for much of the Eastern U.S.... with widespread 80s and 90s expected.

This round looks more humid, so it should be more noticeable. And Midwest should be more involved as well.

The lastest 12z Euro is flat out "Hot" for the East Coast later next week... showing a +20ºC bubble at 850mb centered around Newark next Thursday! Check out this pretty map from MDA-EarthSat...

Models agree rather well on this... although the Euro has it the strongest and longest. Summer starting early this year!

The models are forecasting this because of an early season Bermuda High and -PDO. This has NOTHING TO DO WITH GLOBAL WARMING! This is NORMAL WEATHER.

Everyones entitled to their opinion...

It is a major influence due to the planet warming, how much is AGW is the question.

When one of the "fuels" for our weather engine is changed, temperature/heat, it will alter the dynamics of our planets weather. When and how much will this effect our overall climate, only time will tell.

NO! This is NOT an opinion! This is a FACT. Do you even know how a -PDO effects our weather or what even causes a -PDO/+NAO?

 

[k2skier]

No, no I don't. Do you fully understand it?

Wow, I call you out on your post about it snowing in Hawaii and you go over board on the meteorology geek speak.

A question for you; what causes a Bermuda High and -PDO? Natural fluctuations or? I'm curious, and would like a serious answer.

 

[code1211]

The middle and end of next week (and maybe longer) are setting up to be quite warm to hot once again for much of the Eastern U.S.... with widespread 80s and 90s expected.

This round looks more humid, so it should be more noticeable. And Midwest should be more involved as well.

The lastest 12z Euro is flat out "Hot" for the East Coast later next week... showing a +20ºC bubble at 850mb centered around Newark next Thursday! Check out this pretty map from MDA-EarthSat...

Models agree rather well on this... although the Euro has it the strongest and longest. Summer starting early this year!

The models are forecasting this because of an early season Bermuda High and -PDO. This has NOTHING TO DO WITH GLOBAL WARMING! This is NORMAL WEATHER.

Everyones entitled to their opinion...

It is a major influence due to the planet warming, how much is AGW is the question.

When one of the "fuels" for our weather engine is changed, temperature/heat, it will alter the dynamics of our planets weather. When and how much will this effect our overall climate, only time will tell.

In every example in which CO2 has changed in the last million years, it has changed due to the rise of temperature.

Now CO2 has risen and there are those who say that this will surely cause a rise in temperature.

To me, this seems akin to noting that every time a diesel bus idles inside a garage, there is a build up of diesel exhaust. One day, the mechanic in the garage next door vents the fumes from his garage into the garage with the bus parked and turned off.

The observer notes that the diesel exhaust is becoming thick and therefore, the bus must be about to start running.

Of course this is absurd. The build up of diesel exhaust is a result of the engine running and the simple presence of diesel exhaust will not cause the bus to start.

Why is the prediction of a result creating a cause less absurd when discussing CO2?

 

[DavidS]

No, no I don't. Do you fully understand it?

Wow, I call you out on your post about it snowing in Hawaii and you go over board on the meteorology geek speak.

A question for you; what causes a Bermuda High and -PDO? Natural fluctuations or? I'm curious, and would like a serious answer.

I don't know any way to explain the -PDO without discussing meteorology geek speak. To put it in layman's terms, the PDO is the temperature of subsurface water North of 20 degree N.

There are about 10-15 factors that go into the cause of a negative PDO. I would have to sit here and explain every single one of them. My suggestion would be to go back to my meteorological geek speak thread and read it - research it, understand it. The QBO, PDO have the biggest impact on what the ENSO is... and right now, we're looking at a moderate El Nino developing this Summer. If the PDO turns postive with a moderate El Nino, you're going to be looking at one of the snowiest winters on record for the NE next year.

I'll explain in another thread.

 

[k2skier]

No, no I don't. Do you fully understand it?

Wow, I call you out on your post about it snowing in Hawaii and you go over board on the meteorology geek speak.

A question for you; what causes a Bermuda High and -PDO? Natural fluctuations or? I'm curious, and would like a serious answer.

I don't know any way to explain the -PDO without discussing meteorology geek speak. To put it in layman's terms, the PDO is the temperature of subsurface water North of 20 degree N.

There are about 10-15 factors that go into the cause of a negative PDO. I would have to sit here and explain every single one of them. My suggestion would be to go back to my meteorological geek speak thread and read it - research it, understand it. The QBO, PDO have the biggest impact on what the ENSO is... and right now, we're looking at a moderate El Nino developing this Summer. If the PDO turns postive with a moderate El Nino, you're going to be looking at one of the snowiest winters on record for the NE next year.

I'll explain in another thread.

Thanks. I was curious what the acronyms stood for... 11-13 hour days, I don't have much time to sit in front of the PC this time of year and research.

Trying to predict winter from the beginning of spring is half voodoo this early. Ocean temperatures and currents effect our weather tremendously.

 

[Old Rocks]

The middle and end of next week (and maybe longer) are setting up to be quite warm to hot once again for much of the Eastern U.S.... with widespread 80s and 90s expected.

This round looks more humid, so it should be more noticeable. And Midwest should be more involved as well.

The lastest 12z Euro is flat out "Hot" for the East Coast later next week... showing a +20ºC bubble at 850mb centered around Newark next Thursday! Check out this pretty map from MDA-EarthSat...

Models agree rather well on this... although the Euro has it the strongest and longest. Summer starting early this year!

The models are forecasting this because of an early season Bermuda High and -PDO. This has NOTHING TO DO WITH GLOBAL WARMING! This is NORMAL WEATHER.

Of course, if we are still in a solar minimum, and still feeling the effects of a La Nina, but still have a year that is in the top ten recorded for temperature, that cannot possibly have any connection to global warming. No way, no how, Jose!

 

[Old Rocks]

The middle and end of next week (and maybe longer) are setting up to be quite warm to hot once again for much of the Eastern U.S.... with widespread 80s and 90s expected.

This round looks more humid, so it should be more noticeable. And Midwest should be more involved as well.

The lastest 12z Euro is flat out "Hot" for the East Coast later next week... showing a +20ºC bubble at 850mb centered around Newark next Thursday! Check out this pretty map from MDA-EarthSat...

Models agree rather well on this... although the Euro has it the strongest and longest. Summer starting early this year!

The models are forecasting this because of an early season Bermuda High and -PDO. This has NOTHING TO DO WITH GLOBAL WARMING! This is NORMAL WEATHER.

Everyones entitled to their opinion...

It is a major influence due to the planet warming, how much is AGW is the question.

When one of the "fuels" for our weather engine is changed, temperature/heat, it will alter the dynamics of our planets weather. When and how much will this effect our overall climate, only time will tell.

In every example in which CO2 has changed in the last million years, it has changed due to the rise of temperature.

Now CO2 has risen and there are those who say that this will surely cause a rise in temperature.

To me, this seems akin to noting that every time a diesel bus idles inside a garage, there is a build up of diesel exhaust. One day, the mechanic in the garage next door vents the fumes from his garage into the garage with the bus parked and turned off.

The observer notes that the diesel exhaust is becoming thick and therefore, the bus must be about to start running.

Of course this is absurd. The build up of diesel exhaust is a result of the engine running and the simple presence of diesel exhaust will not cause the bus to start.

Why is the prediction of a result creating a cause less absurd when discussing CO2?

Totally wrong. In the glacial and interglacial periods of the last 2 million years, the Milankovic Cycle has been the driver. The warming of the Southern Ocean by that forcing causes the release of CO2, which acts as a feedback, creating even more warming. When the Milankovic Cycles begin to go the other way, less forcing, the natural geologic processes remove more of the CO2 from the air, and the resulting negative feedback results in another glacial period.

However, when something puts vast amounts of GHGs into the air, then the Milankovic Cycle is irrelevant, because of the much greater forcing of the GHGs. We have seen periods where natural processes put GHGs into the atmosphere at nearly the rate that we are putting them into the atmosphere. And these periods have seen rapid and extreme climate change, with major extinctions occuring at the same time. There is not rational reason to expect a differant result just because we are the agent putting GHGs into the atmosphere this time.

 

[Old Rocks]

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

The "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (PDO) is a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability. While the two climate oscillations have similar spatial climate fingerprints, they have very different behavior in time. Fisheries scientist Steven Hare coined the term "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (PDO) in 1996 while researching connections between Alaska salmon production cycles and Pacific climate (his dissertation topic with advisor Robert Francis). Two main characteristics distinguish PDO from El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): first, 20th century PDO "events" persisted for 20-to-30 years, while typical ENSO events persisted for 6 to 18 months; second, the climatic fingerprints of the PDO are most visible in the North Pacific/North American sector, while secondary signatures exist in the tropics - the opposite is true for ENSO. Several independent studies find evidence for just two full PDO cycles in the past century: "cool" PDO regimes prevailed from 1890-1924 and again from 1947-1976, while "warm" PDO regimes dominated from 1925-1946 and from 1977 through (at least) the mid-1990's. Shoshiro Minobe has shown that 20th century PDO fluctuations were most energetic in two general periodicities, one from 15-to-25 years, and the other from 50-to-70 years.
http://ingrid.ldeo.columbia.edu/(/home/alexeyk/mydata/TSsvd.in)readfile/.SST/.PDO/

Hardly rocket science.

 

[Old Rocks]

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Climate Forecasting for North America
By Nathan Mantua, Ph. D.
Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans
University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.

[to appear in premiere issue of "Climate Risk Solutions" newsletter]

Introduction

"Climate" is defined as the statistics of weather, and is often quantified with numbers for things like monthly averaged temperature and precipitation, or the average number of heating degree days in winter, or cooling degree days in summer. As a general rule, important elements of the climate in any region are a moving target, most everyone knows this from their own observations--one year is often warmer than another, or maybe one year sees many more (or less) hurricanes than the next. While the vagaries of climate have often seemed random and unpredictable, recent advances in climate science point to a handful of regularly occurring patterns that impose at least a bit of order in the always variable climate system. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation, for instance, is the best known "natural pattern" of Earth's climate. In addition to El Niño, there are other heavily researched climate patterns that exert important influences on regional climates around the world. For instance, many studies highlight the relative importance of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation in North American climate. Each of these major patterns--El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation--has characteristic signatures in seasonally changing patterns of wind, air temperature, and precipitation; each pattern also has a typical life time for any given "event". Much of the present day skill in the science of climate prediction exploits these signature patterns and typical life times. The remainder of this article is devoted to an overview of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and how it contributes to skillful climate forecasts over the Pacific and North America.

A PDO definition

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO, is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Zhang et al. 1997). As seen with the better-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extremes in the PDO pattern are marked by widespread variations in Pacific Basin and North American climate. In parallel with the ENSO phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as being either warm or cool, as defined by ocean temperature anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean.

Two main characteristics distinguish the PDO from ENSO. First, typical PDO "events" have shown remarkable persistence relative to that attributed to ENSO events - in this century, major PDO eras have persisted for 20 to 30 years (Mantua et al. 1997, Minobe 1997). Second, the climatic fingerprints of the PDO are most visible in the North Pacific/North American sector, while secondary signatures exist in the tropics - the opposite is true for ENSO. Several independent studies find evidence for just two full PDO cycles in the past century (e.g. Mantua et al. 1997, Minobe 1997): cool PDO regimes prevailed from 1890-1924 and again from 1947-1976, while warm PDO regimes dominated from 1925-1946 and from 1977 through (at least) the mid-1990's. Recent changes in Pacific climate suggest a possible reversal to cool PDO conditions in 1998, an issue that is discussed in more detail at the end of this article.

Tracking PDO variations
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

 

[Old Rocks]

It's Pacific Decadal Oscillation
It's Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The skeptic argument...The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a temperature pattern in the Pacific Ocean that spends roughly 20-30 years in the cool phase or the warm phase. In 1905, PDO switched to a warm phase. In 1946, PDO switched to a cool phase. In 1977, PDO switched to a warm phase. In 1998, PDO showed a few cool years. Note that the cool phases seem to coincide with the periods of cooling (1946-1977) and the warm phases seem to coincide with periods of warming (1905-1946, 1977-1998). (source: The Reference Frame)


What the science says...

The PDO is a climate phenomena found primarily in the North Pacific (as opposed to El Niño which affects mostly the tropical Pacific). It has two phases that it typically alternates between; usually staying in one phase for a significant period of time (as little as 10 and as much as 40 years). However, it's not uncommon for these long periods to be broken by intervals when it switches phases for anything between 1 and 5 years. The phases of the PDO have been called warm phases (positive values) or cool phases (negative values).


Figure 1: Monthly values for PDO index: 1900 to May 2006. Figure source: Climate Impacts Group

So the first lesson of PDOs is that while we talk about a 20 to 30 year period, it is not very clear cut at all. In fact, an analysis of the frequency of the events does not produce much in the way of a firm period. Incidentally back in 1999 it was predicted that we were entering a cool phase.

The second lesson of PDOs is that while we talk about warm phases and cool phases these are more names than physical descriptions. As seen in Figure 2, a cool phase PDO is associated with cool sea surface temperatures along the Pacific coast of North America, but the center of the North Pacific ocean is still quite warm. Consequently it would appear that there is nothing fundamental about a PDO that would cause significant changes to global temperatures.

 

[code1211]

I agree that the Milankovitich Cycles initiate the Interglacials and the Ice Ages. As a by product of the warming, CO2 is released from sequstration. As cooling begins, begins at the peak of the Co2 concetrations, CO2 is once again sequestered.

The Rise of CO2 is caused by warming. The fall of CO2 is caused by cooling. If CO2 was a strong forcing agent, the cooling would not begin when CO2 was at its peak. If CO2 was the small switch contolling the big switch, warming would not begin when CO2 was at its low point.

The natural changes in the concentration of CO2 are the result of the natural changes in temperature. The examples of the recent geologic past past all show this. There is nothing in the natural record of the world in the current arrangement of continents to show a precedent for what is being claimed by the AGW Proponents.

 

[Chris]

Pumping billions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere is warming the earth. Even Exxon agrees with this.

Only the fringe right wing continue to deny reality.

 

[k2skier]

I agree that the Milankovitich Cycles initiate the Interglacials and the Ice Ages. As a by product of the warming, CO2 is released from sequstration. As cooling begins, begins at the peak of the Co2 concetrations, CO2 is once again sequestered.

The Rise of CO2 is caused by warming. The fall of CO2 is caused by cooling. If CO2 was a strong forcing agent, the cooling would not begin when CO2 was at its peak. If CO2 was the small switch contolling the big switch, warming would not begin when CO2 was at its low point.

The natural changes in the concentration of CO2 are the result of the natural changes in temperature. The examples of the recent geologic past past all show this. There is nothing in the natural record of the world in the current arrangement of continents to show a precedent for what is being claimed by the AGW Proponents.

I researched this talking point, problem is, CO2 increases lagged 400-800 years behind the temperature increases, and that's not what were seeing today, not even close.

 

[Old Rocks]

What we are seeing today is that the effects of the very rapid rise in GHGs is about 50 years behind the amount of GHGs in the atmosphere. So kiss the Arctic Ice Cap goodby.

Which brings up the question, are we already over the tipping point? Possibly, the outgassing that we have seen in the Arctic Ocean clathrates in the last three years is a very worrisome factor. If we see another large increase in the outgassing this year, it may very well be that there is nothing that we can do to prevent a repeat of the PETM.

 

[sealybobo]

The middle and end of next week (and maybe longer) are setting up to be quite warm to hot once again for much of the Eastern U.S.... with widespread 80s and 90s expected.

This round looks more humid, so it should be more noticeable. And Midwest should be more involved as well.

The lastest 12z Euro is flat out "Hot" for the East Coast later next week... showing a +20ºC bubble at 850mb centered around Newark next Thursday! Check out this pretty map from MDA-EarthSat...

Models agree rather well on this... although the Euro has it the strongest and longest. Summer starting early this year!

The models are forecasting this because of an early season Bermuda High and -PDO. This has NOTHING TO DO WITH GLOBAL WARMING! This is NORMAL WEATHER.

Bush's government even admitted it in 2002

Humans cause global warming, US admits

BBC NEWS | World | Americas | Humans cause global warming, US admits

So why is this even a discussion anymore?

In a 268-page report submitted to the United Nations, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) endorsed what many scientists have long argued - that human activities such as oil refining, power generation and car emissions are significant causes of global warming.

This should put this to rest. Don't let me catch you talking about this anymore.

And shit. I can't find it, but for the first time, this non partisan government committee, something like GAO, but not gao, finally ruled that global warming is man made.

So you had the luxury of having a right wing anti environment president in office for 8 years so your precious companies could pollute all they wanted. That time is over. Hey, did you see this?

UNITED NATIONS - Momentum was building Thursday for a novel strategy by the Obama administration to deal in part with global warming: Use the existing U.N. treaty to fix the ozone hole as a way to enact mandatory reductions in a key greenhouse gas — not carbon dioxide but hydrofluorocarbons.

The Obama administration, in a major environmental policy shift, is leaning toward asking 195 nations that ratified the U.N. ozone treaty to do just that.

Two influential senators on Thursday sent President Barack Obama a letter urging him to do just that.

"Regulation of these gases could begin as soon as next year — significantly faster than any regulation of these potent greenhouse gases" via ongoing U.N. talks, wrote Sens. John Kerry, D-Mass., and Barbara Boxer, D-Calif. Kerry chairs the Foreign Relations Committee; Boxer the Environment and Public Works Committee.

 

[Chris]

What we are seeing today is that the effects of the very rapid rise in GHGs is about 50 years behind the amount of GHGs in the atmosphere. So kiss the Arctic Ice Cap goodby.

Which brings up the question, are we already over the tipping point? Possibly, the outgassing that we have seen in the Arctic Ocean clathrates in the last three years is a very worrisome factor. If we see another large increase in the outgassing this year, it may very well be that there is nothing that we can do to prevent a repeat of the PETM.

It all depends on the sun.

If the sun goes into a minimum, then global warming may be a good thing. If the sun stays as it has been, we could be in some trouble.

 

[Old Rocks]

A Maunder Minimum at this point would be a good thing in that it would give us a few years to get our act together. However, I don't think it would totally offset the affect of the GHGs. I would expect the temperature increase to moderate, but still continue to rise.

 

[raceright]

The middle and end of next week (and maybe longer) are setting up to be quite warm to hot once again for much of the Eastern U.S.... with widespread 80s and 90s expected.

This round looks more humid, so it should be more noticeable. And Midwest should be more involved as well.

The lastest 12z Euro is flat out "Hot" for the East Coast later next week... showing a +20ºC bubble at 850mb centered around Newark next Thursday! Check out this pretty map from MDA-EarthSat...

Models agree rather well on this... although the Euro has it the strongest and longest. Summer starting early this year!

The models are forecasting this because of an early season Bermuda High and -PDO. This has NOTHING TO DO WITH GLOBAL WARMING! This is NORMAL WEATHER.

Bush's government even admitted it in 2002

Humans cause global warming, US admits

BBC NEWS | World | Americas | Humans cause global warming, US admits

So why is this even a discussion anymore?

In a 268-page report submitted to the United Nations, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) endorsed what many scientists have long argued - that human activities such as oil refining, power generation and car emissions are significant causes of global warming.

This should put this to rest. Don't let me catch you talking about this anymore.

And shit. I can't find it, but for the first time, this non partisan government committee, something like GAO, but not gao, finally ruled that global warming is man made.

So you had the luxury of having a right wing anti environment president in office for 8 years so your precious companies could pollute all they wanted. That time is over. Hey, did you see this?

UNITED NATIONS - Momentum was building Thursday for a novel strategy by the Obama administration to deal in part with global warming: Use the existing U.N. treaty to fix the ozone hole as a way to enact mandatory reductions in a key greenhouse gas — not carbon dioxide but hydrofluorocarbons.

The Obama administration, in a major environmental policy shift, is leaning toward asking 195 nations that ratified the U.N. ozone treaty to do just that.

Two influential senators on Thursday sent President Barack Obama a letter urging him to do just that.

"Regulation of these gases could begin as soon as next year — significantly faster than any regulation of these potent greenhouse gases" via ongoing U.N. talks, wrote Sens. John Kerry, D-Mass., and Barbara Boxer, D-Calif. Kerry chairs the Foreign Relations Committee; Boxer the Environment and Public Works Committee.

Guess your gonna stop driving to do your part to save the planet