Giss for August .61(fourth)

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Matthew, Sep 12, 2011.

  1. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    .61 was fourth for August and the June, July, August period was third.


    this is for the three month period
    1998 .67, 2009 .61, 2011 .57, 2005 .57

    Uah shown 3rd for August.

    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

    I expect the Sept, Oct, Nov to back off as we're now within yet another nina. Of course it should, but I won't know one way or the other if it doesn't the reason until 2015 at least.

    [​IMG]

    my god look how warm antarctica is.:eek:
     
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2011
  2. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    Here is giss data for each three month period up to this point of each year

    1995 46, 29, 41
    1996 31, 25, 32
    1997 28, 35, 37
    1998 62, 58, 67=.62333 (fourth)(Super nino)
    1999 49, 22, 30=.33666(Nina)
    2000 33, 42, 36=.37(Nina)
    2001 33, 48, 47=.4266(Nina)
    2002 64, 66, 59=.63 (third)
    2003 51, 51, 50=.5066 (eighth)
    2004 62, 48, 31=.47
    2005 59, 62, 57=.5933 (fifth)
    2006 56, 46, 54=.52 (seventh) (Nino)
    2007 74, 65, 54=.64333 (second)
    2008 28, 50, 40=.39333 (Super nina)
    2009 49, 50, 61=.53333 (sixth) (neutral, but with nina atmosphere for the first half)
    2010 68, 75, 53=.6533 (first) (borderline nina)
    2011 43, 51, 57=.5033 (ninth)(Super nina)

    By looking at this you can tell that the 2008 nina knocked 2007 in the last part of the year down a shit load...2009 really was still under the monster.

    For the first 3/4th of the year...We're 9th for the year within a very cold nina year as we go into the 4th. There is no way 2012 gets away with no effect of this nina and in fact I believe if it follows the models that 2012 could start out a nina year its self. There is 3-4 month lag within the effects of a enso event.
     
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2011
  3. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    This is for 1979-2010 like UAH, which had .33 for August. UAH IS HOTTER in the 1979-2010.

    Giss is .30 compared to UAH of .33
    [​IMG]

    The eastern Pacific is colder then hell!

    But here is 2010 in August for GISS compared to 0.44 for UAH
    [​IMG]


    April 2010 for giss compared to 0.40 for UAh
    [​IMG]


    The giss is constantly cooler on the same baseline then UAH.
     
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2011
  4. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    GISS, even less believable then wiki:lol::lol::lol::lol:
     
  5. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    It is close to the UAH if you compared it to the same baseline. What do you use for your global temperature data?
     
  6. flacaltenn
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    flacaltenn USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member

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    This really illustrates my problem with reducing the whole debate to ONE SILLY number like annual mean surface temperature.. It's childishly absurd to reduce to that level. And not a likely process to find changes on the order of sub 0.5%.

    Why aren't we MORE concerned about volatility or STDDEV over a year or from year to year? Or variations by locations? Or daytime/nightime high/low spreads? Or even gaps and biases in daily readings and coverage?

    Even a day-trader has more environmental data to look at..
    How did the media make AGW a debate over a single number?

    It leaves open all these skirmishes over things that aren't even real anomalies.
     
  7. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    To be honest I pretty much ignore it. I look at what sort of weather the various continents are experiencing and see what their growing seasons are doing and that is a better gauge of what the weather is doing then any temperature estimate.
     
  8. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Inevitably we will see a strong El Nino in the next year or two. Given what we have seen in strong La Nina years, the 1998 records will look minor. Growing season;

    http://research.eeescience.utoledo.edu/lees/papers_PDF/Linderholm_2006_AFM.pdf

    Abstract
    An increasing number of studies have reported on shifts in timing and length of the growing season, based on phenological,
    satellite and climatological studies. The evidence points to a lengthening of the growing season of ca. 10–20 days in the last few
    decades, where an earlier onset of the start is most prominent. This extension of the growing season has been associated with recent
    global warming. Changes in the timing and length of the growing season (GSL) may not only have far reaching consequences for
    plant and animal ecosystems, but persistent increases in GSL may lead to long-term increases in carbon storage and changes in
    vegetation cover which may affect the climate system. This paper reviews the recent literature concerned with GSL variability.
    # 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
     
  9. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    Giss

    Yes, I added the BLACK BOLDED LINE. That is the means. Ladies and gents we live on a warmer planet then we did in the 1970s or 1980s. That is a FACT! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

    Here is a few truths to consider looking at this data
    1# The 1990s were warming at near .17c for the decade, but some of that could of been caused by the vei 6 balance back.
    2# The decade of the 2000's slow down...Well it is clear, but you have to consider the negatives of the increase of aerosals and lower sun cycle to understand the -.04 to -.06c rate of the warming since 2005.

    :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :fu: :fu: :fu :fu: :fu: :fu: :fu: :booze: :booze: :booze: :boobies: :boobies::boobies::boobies::boobies::boobies: :alcoholic: :alcoholic: :alcoholic:

    Well at the rate it is going it is clear as all hell the avg will raise into the upper .5s to upper .6s within the next 3-4 years. Yes there is about .15c within the enso on the system.

    What I MEAN BY FACT is all the data supports it. It is a way of life that people need to get used to!
     

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    Last edited: Sep 15, 2011
  10. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Yeah? So? Still not as warm as during the MWP or the RWP. I'll let Dr. Giaver's resignation letter from the APS speak to the truth of the matter....



    "Dear Ms. Kirby

    Thank you for your letter inquiring about my membership. I did not renew it because I can not live with the statement below:

    Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the Earth's climate. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide as well as methane, nitrous oxide and other gases. They are emitted from fossil fuel combustion and a range of industrial and agricultural processes.
    The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring.
    If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth's physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.

    In the APS it is ok to discuss whether the mass of the proton changes over time and how a multi-universe behaves, but the evidence of global warming is incontrovertible? The claim (how can you measure the average temperature of the whole earth for a whole year?) is that the temperature has changed from ~288.0 to ~288.8 degree Kelvin in about 150 years, which (if true) means to me is that the temperature has been amazingly stable, and both human health and happiness have definitely improved in this 'warming' period.

    Best regards,

    Ivar Giaever

    Nobel Laureate 1973


    PS. I included a copy to a few people in case they feel like using the information."
     

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