Gingrich Maintains 6 Point Lead in S.C.

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  1. bripat9643
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    bripat9643 Diamond Member

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    Gingrich maintains 6 point lead - Public Policy Polling

    January 19, 2012
    Gingrich maintains 6 point lead

    Thursday may have been one of the most eventful days of the Republican campaign so far, but the state of the race in South Carolina didn't change much. Newt Gingrich continues to lead Mitt Romney by 6 points, 35-29, with Ron Paul and Rick Santorum each tied for third at 15%.

    Revelations from the Marianne Gingrich interview haven't taken a toll on Newt's image yet. For the first time in our South Carolina tracking this month his favorability is better than Romney's, with 53% of voters holding a positive opinion of him compared to 51% for his chief competitor.

    Gingrich's lead with evangelicals held steady today at 40-22 over Romney. He's also doing well with Tea Party voters (46-21), registered Republicans (38-30), voters describing themselves as very conservative (41-21), men (39-27), and voters in the Upstate (36-25).

    Romney is leading with non-evangelicals (39-30), independents (30-26), moderates (44-23), and women (32-31). The problem for him is that all of those groups are a minority within the South Carolina Republican electorate.

    Both Gingrich (81%) and Romney (79%) have supporters who are pretty firmly committed to them. 81% of Paul's supporters say they'll definitely vote for him as well. Santorum has the voters most likely to abandon him for one of the more viable contenders in the final 36 hours, with 32% of them saying they could end up voting for someone else. Gingrich is the second choice of 45% of Santorum voters open to changing their minds, compared to 22% for Romney.

    Things look good for Newt. He has the lead, his support seems to have more room to grow than Romney's, and so far he's not seeing any ill effects from his ex-wife going to the media. It's important to note though that many average South Carolina voters- the non-political junkies- will get their first exposure to the Marianne Gingrich story in the morning paper or on the news sometime tomorrow. That may or may not end up having a big impact on his numbers. But it's important to keep in mind.

    Methodological note: Rick Perry, who dropped out, and Buddy Roemer, who's not on the ballot in South Carolina, were both included as response options for the Wednesday interviews of this poll. They were not included in Thursday's interviews, and we reallocated respondents who chose them on Wednesday night to their second choices.
     
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  2. imbalance
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    imbalance Silver Member

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    I'll wait to see the polls after the Newt sextape is released.
     
  3. Avatar4321
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    Avatar4321 Diamond Member Gold Supporting Member

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    I don't think Newt is going to do nearly as well as the polls project in SC. Obviously, I could be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time SC supported a Progressive Republican. But I just don't see it happening despite what any polls may be saying.
     
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  4. Full-Auto
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    Full-Auto Gold Member

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    I should neg for the visual :lol:
     
  5. Avatar4321
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    Avatar4321 Diamond Member Gold Supporting Member

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    Well, anyone who watches a Newt Sextape will not be voting. People who die of shock dont vote for Republicans. The dead vote for Democrats.
     
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  6. imbalance
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    imbalance Silver Member

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    BBM amirite
     
  7. g5000
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    g5000 Diamond Member

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    South Carolina politics are an incredibly sweaty, dirty affair. And they like sweaty, dirty politicians like Newt. This is a place were a state senator can say in public, "we already have one raghead in the White House, we don’t need a raghead in the governor’s mansion" when talking about Nikki Haley.
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2012
  8. Avatar4321
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    Avatar4321 Diamond Member Gold Supporting Member

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    I can't disagree. Though I am concluding that SC is not nearly as conservative as they have a reputation to be.
     
  9. Avorysuds
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    Avorysuds Gold Member

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    The problem with Newt and polls is that he usually goes down faster than he went up.
     
  10. Amelia
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    Amelia BANNED

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    In 2008 South Carolina was where things went ... er ... south ... so to speak.

    If they give us Newt this year, I'm taking them off my Christmas card list! :lol:
     

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